1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Needs for rehabilitation in China: Estimates based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.
Tian TIAN ; Lin ZHU ; Qingzhen FU ; Shiheng TAN ; Yukun CAO ; Ding ZHANG ; Mingxue WANG ; Ting ZHENG ; Lijing GAO ; Daria VOLONTOVICH ; Yongchen WANG ; Jinming ZHANG ; Zhimei JIANG ; Hongbin QIU ; Fan WANG ; Yashuang ZHAO
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(1):49-59
BACKGROUND:
As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034.
METHODS:
The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC).
RESULTS:
Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Female
;
Male
;
Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Rehabilitation/trends*
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Bayes Theorem
3.Current status and visual analysis of the burn-related sepsis.
Like ZHANG ; Wei YI ; Lijing ZHU ; Weibo XIE ; Zhicheng GU ; Guosheng WU ; Zhaofan XIA
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(3):255-261
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the current status, evolution, hot topics, and future research trends in the field of burn-related sepsis research through a visual analysis of literature.
METHODS:
A bibliometric method was employed to retrieve articles related to burn-related sepsis from January 1, 1994, to May 16, 2024, in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and the Web of Science database. The CiteSpace 6.3.R1 software was used to analyze the retrieved literature. The number of publications, authors, countries, and institutions in both Chinese and English literature was statistically analyzed. Co-occurrence analysis, clustering analysis, and co-citation analysis of keywords were performed.
RESULTS:
A total of 1 090 articles from the CNKI database and 1 143 articles from the Web of Science database were retrieved. Over the past 20 years, the volume of Chinese publications has remained stable, although there has been a slight decline in the past two years. In contrast, the number of English publications, after a period of growth, showed a sharp decline over the past three years. In Chinese literature, 1 457 authors published articles on burn-related sepsis as first authors, with 14 core authors publishing four or more articles. In English literature, 98 authors published articles on burn-related sepsis as first authors. Research on burn-related sepsis was conducted by 76 countries, with the United States having the most collaborations and publications. Globally, 1 349 institutions published articles on burn-related sepsis, with the top institutions being the First Affiliated Hospital of the PLA General Hospital (8 articles) for Chinese literature and the University of Texas Medical Branch (57 articles) for English literature. In the co-occurrence analysis, 208 Chinese keywords and 211 English keywords were included. Excluding keywords related to search terms, the top five most frequent keywords in Chinese literature were burn, sepsis, infection, severe burn, and procalcitonin; the top five most frequent keywords in English literature were sepsis, septic shock, mortality, injury, and burn injury. Chinese keyword analysis identified six clusters, with the largest being sepsis, followed by procalcitonin, infection, and severe burn. English keyword analysis identified seven clusters, with the largest being expression, followed by epidemiology, inhalation injury, and acute kidney injury. The persistent clusters in Chinese literature were procalcitonin, with recent emerging nodes being severe burn, inflammatory response, platelets, and predictive value. In English literature, the persistent clusters were inhalation injury and nitric oxide, with recent emerging nodes being continuous renal replacement therapy, hemorrhagic shock, and early enteral nutrition. The longest-lasting emergent keyword in Chinese literature was delayed resuscitation (2003-2010), with the highest emergent strength being severe burn. In English literature, the longest-lasting emergent keywords, each lasting five years, were nitric oxide (2007-2012), management (2019-2024), and impact (2019-2024), with the highest emergent strength being thermal injury.
CONCLUSIONS
Research on burn-related sepsis has shifted from focusing on early studies on pathogenesis and mortality to focus on prevention, treatment, and early diagnosis. Future research is expected to focus on early diagnosis and risk factors of burn-related sepsis.
Burns/complications*
;
Sepsis/etiology*
;
Humans
;
Bibliometrics
;
China
4.Pathogenesis,Differentiation and Treatment of Pre-Metastatic Niche in Malignant Tumors Based on the Theory of "Toxin Accumulation Damaging Yin"
Shiliang SHAO ; Xiaomin NIU ; Yao ZHANG ; Lijing JIAO ; Ling XU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;66(23):2426-2432
According to the theory of "toxin accumulation damaging yin", the accumulation of pathological products and the disruption of homeostasis in the pre-metastatic niche (PMN) of malignant tumors correspond to "toxin accumulation" and "yin damage" respectively. During the dynamic evolution of PMN, the main pathogenesis in the initial stage is healthy qi deficiency and phlegm congestion, obstruction in the ying (营) and wei (卫) level, for which the therapeutic approach is fortifying spleen and warming yang, reinforcing healthy qi, consolidating the root, and assissting in resolving phlegm. In the progression stage, the predominant mechanism is mutual binding of phlegm and stasis, with collateral damage and pathological transformation. Treatment should focus on resolving phlegm and eliminating stasis, using insect-derived medicinals to attack accumulation and block pathological transmission. In the terminal stage, the main pathogenesis involves phlegm-stasis transforming into fire, with depletion of qi and yin, for which it is suggested to replenish qi and nourish yin, combine clearing and tonifying methods to control fire-toxin. After the PMN has formed, pathogenic toxin may flow along the collaterals, tending to lodge in corresponding viscera with functional imbalance and deviation between deficiency and excess, eventually giving rise to malignant tumors. Understanding the pathogenesis of the PMN in the malignant tumors based on the "toxin accumulation damaging yin" theory may provide a valuable perspective for developing traditional Chinese medicine strategies for the prevention and treatment of tumor metastasis.
5.Analysis of bullying prevalence and associated factors among middle school students in Shanghai
LI Shuman, ZHOU Xinyi, YAN Qiong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHAI Yani, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(11):1555-1559
Objective:
To explore the current status and associated factors of bullying behavior among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide a reference basis for carrying out bullying intervention work.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster sampling method was used to select 19 000 middle school students from 63 schools in 16 districts of Shanghai, and the Shanghai Youth Health Risk Behavior Survey Questionnaire was used to conduct an anonymous questionnaire survey of enrolled students. Chi square test and binary Logistic regression analysis were employed to investigate the associated factors of bullying among middle school students.
Results:
The prevalence of bullying behaviors in Shanghai was 15.5%, with males and junior high school students exhibiting the higher reporting rate(19.5%,17.2%). And malicious teasing or name calling had the highest reported rate at 9.4%. The results of binary Logistic regression analysis showed that fighting ( OR =5.02), attempting to smoke ( OR =3.22), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.50) and getting drunk( OR =1.72) were positively associated with bullying behavior among middle school students. Fighting ( OR =3.83-8.97), attempting to smoke ( OR =2.92-5.52), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.40-4.34), and getting drunk ( OR =1.66-2.34) were positively correlated with 6 forms of bullying (malicious teasing or name calling, intentionally damaging someone else s belongings, deliberately excluding someone from activities or isolating someone, threatening or intimidating others, hitting, kicking, or pushing someone, and verbally harassing or attacking someone online) ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Bullying behavior of middle school students in Shanghai primarily presents as verbal harassment. In the future, greater attention should be directed towards bullies, and it should recognize potential hazards promptly and implement precise intervention measures.
6.Anesthesia management of children undergoing resection of pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma
Zenghua XU ; Jianmin ZHANG ; Nan ZOU ; Tiehua ZHENG ; Lianghong HUO ; Lijing LI ; Fang WANG
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2024;44(2):209-213
Objective:To retrospectively analyze the anesthetic management characteristics of children undergoing resection of pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (PPGL).Methods:The clinical data from patients undergoing resection of PPGL and confirmed histologically from January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2023 were retrospectively collected. The baseline characteristics, intraoperative conditions and postoperative complications were recorded.Results:The clinical data from 47 pediatric patients were analyzed. The overall incidence of hemodynamic instability events was 68% (32 cases). Lowering preoperative blood pressure to normal levels and the maximum diameter of tumor≥6 cm was helpful in reducing the incidence of the intraoperative hemodynamic instability events ( P<0.05). Postoperative hypotension developed in 7 cases, acute left heart failure in 1 case, arrhythmia in 1 case, adrenocortical insufficiency in 4 cases, and pulmonary infection in 13 cases. Conclusions:Thorough preoperative preparation, evidence-based anesthetic management, and meticulous postoperative vital sign monitoring can increase the perioperative safety for children undergoing resection of PPGL, thereby reducing the incidence of complications.
7.Effect of Zishen-Yutai pills on refrozen-thawed embryo transfer in patients with diminished ovarian reserve
Jinghua ZHANG ; Lijing BAI ; Chunmei YU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2024;28(19):3037-3041
BACKGROUND:Currently,hormone replacement therapy is the main treatment in Western medicine for patients with decreased ovarian function,but these patients are not sensitive to exogenous hormones,leading to unsatisfactory therapeutic effect.Zishen-Yutai pills can nourish the blood and calm the fetus,tonify the kidney and spleen,invigorate qi and strengthen the body.Studies have confirmed that Zishen-Yutai pill is effective in reducing follicle-stimulating hormone index and improving traditional Chinese medicine symptoms in patients with diminished ovarian reserve.However,few studies have been conducted to improve the implantation rate of patients by improving endometrial receptivity. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the effect of Zishen-Yutai pills on the clinical outcome of patients with diminished ovarian reserve undergoing frozen-thawed embryo transfer again. METHODS:A total of 300 patients with diminished ovarian reserve who underwent frozen-thawed embryo transfer to assist pregnancy after the first failure in the Center of Reproductive Medicine,Changzhou Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the study subjects.Subjects were randomly treated with a placebo or Zishen-Yutai pills in a ratio of 1:2,with 100 cases in the treatment group and 200 cases in the control group.However,13 patients fell off due to lack of contact,refusal to take medicine or other reasons.Finally,90 cases in the treatment group and 197 cases in the control group were included in the study.Oral medication was administered 7 days before frozen-thawed embryo transfer transplantation at a dose of 5 g/time,3 times/day.To investigate whether taking Zishen-Yutai pills could improve the clinical outcome of patients with diminished ovarian reserve after frozen-thawed embryo transfer again,the primary outcome measures included clinical pregnancy rate,implantation rate,abortion rate,live birth rate,offspring birth weight and birth defects. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Compared with the control group,the clinical pregnancy rate(P<0.05)and implantation rate(P=0.009)were significantly increased after the oral administration of Zishen-Yutai pills.Correlation analysis showed that taking the Zishen-Yutai pill was positively correlated with the number of implanted embryos(r=0.200,P=0.001)and clinical pregnancy(r=0.235,P=0.000).There was no correlation between taking Zishen-Yutai pills and indexes of endometrial thickness and blood flow.It is indicated that Zishen-Yutai pills can improve the clinical pregnancy rate and implantation rate of frozen-thawed embryo transfer recurrence in patients with diminished ovarian reserve.
8.The correlation between serum human β-defensin 3 and interleukin-12 levels and postoperative infection in hip replacement patients with femoral neck fractures
Mingxia SUN ; Yanbin SUN ; Jiao GUAN ; Lijing ZHANG ; Jinglei YAN ; Bing BAI
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2024;47(9):797-802
Objective:To explore the relationship between periprosthetic infection and preoperative serum levels of human β-defensin 3 (HBd-3) and interleukin-12 (IL-12) in patients with femoral neck fracture after hip replacement surgery.Methods:A prospective study was conducted to 268 patients with femoral neck fracture who underwent hip replacement surgery at Chengde Central Hospital from April 2020 to April 2022. They were divided into an infected group and an uninfected group based on whether they had periprosthetic infection within 2 weeks after surgery. The baseline data and preoperative laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared, and the relationship between preoperative serum HBd-3 and IL-12 levels and postoperative periprosthetic infection in patients was mainly analyzed.Results:Seventeen out of 268 patients with femoral neck fractures experienced periprosthetic infections after hip replacement surgery, with an infection rate of 6.34%(17/268). The body mass index, operation time, postoperative drainage time and IL-12 in the infected group were higher than those in the uninfected group: (23.75 ± 2.18) kg/m 2 vs. (21.86 ± 1.95) kg/m 2, (124.82 ± 15.93) min vs. (116.92 ± 14.75) min, (57.41±7.81) min vs. (49.65 ± 5.73) min, (64.82 ± 11.59) ng/L vs. (54.23 ± 9.55) ng/L, the preoperative albumin and HBd-3 were lower than those in the uninfected group: (32.56±4.63) g/L vs. (37.25 ± 5.81) g/L, (38.03 ± 6.74) μg/L vs. (46.84 ± 8.93) μg/L, and the differences were statistically significant ( P<0.05). The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that high body mass index, long surgical and postoperative drainage time, and high preoperative IL-12 levels were risk factors for periprosthetic infection after hip replacement surgery in patients with femoral neck fractures ( OR>1, P<0.05), while preoperative serum albumin and HBd-3 levels were protective factors ( OR<1, P<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve results showed that preoperative serum HBd-3 and IL-12 alone and in combination predict AUC>0.70 for periprosthetic infection in patients with femoral neck fracture after hip replacement surgery, which had certain predictive value. The restricted cubic spline method combining spline function and Logistic regression was used for analysis, and the results showed a linear dose-response relationship between the levels of HBd-3 and IL-12 and the strength of the association with periprosthetic infection after hip replacement surgery in patients with femoral neck fracture ( P<0.05). Conclusions:Preoperative serum HBd-3 and IL-12 levels are associated with periprosthetic infection in patients with femoral neck fracture after hip replacement surgery, and can serve as predictive indicators for infection occurrence.
9.Non-pharmaceutical intervention of Traditional Chinese Medicine in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a best evidence summary
Qian MA ; Lijuan ZHANG ; Yun CHEN ; Lijing LU ; Junchen LU ; Xie WU
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing 2024;40(24):1893-1902
Objective:To systematically review, assess, extract, and summarize the most effective evidence on non-pharmacological traditional Chinese medicine interventions for promoting pulmonary rehabilitation in stable patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation for clinical nurses to implement traditional Chinese medicine nursing interventions.Methods:According to the "6S" evidence model, relevant evidence on non-pharmacological traditional Chinese medicine interventions for stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was retrieved from domestic and foreign databases, guideline websites and professional society websites, including clinical decisions, guidelines, evidence summaries, systematic reviews, expert consensus, etc. The retrieval time was from January 1, 2018 to August 10, 2023. Two researchers evaluated the quality of the included literature, and extracted data and summarized evidence.Results:A total of 23 articles were included, including 6 guideline, 1 evidence summary, 7 systematic reviews, 8 Meta analysis and 1 expert consensus. The 37 evidences were summarized from 11 aspects, including target population, intervention focus, moxibustion therapy, acupoint sticking therapy, transcutaneous electrical acupoint stimulation, acupuncture therapy, acupoint injection therapy, traditional Chinese exercises, diet therapy, follow-up procedures, safety considerations.Conclusions:This study summarizes the evidences of traditional Chinese medicine non-drug pulmonary rehabilitation in the stable stage of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. When applying the evidence in clinical practice, the traditional Chinese medicine nursing ability of nurses and the actual situation of patients should be fully considered to formulate an individualized traditional Chinese medicine nursing plan.
10.Clinical efficacy of 1 565 nm non-ablative fractional laser in androgenetic alopecia
Yi CHENG ; Yaping XU ; Lijing LYU ; Yu CUI ; Yan ZHANG ; Caixia HU
Tianjin Medical Journal 2024;52(9):936-939
Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of 1 565 nm non-ablative fractional laser combined with topical minoxidil and oral finasteride in the treatment of patients with androgenetic alopecia(AGA).Methods Seventy-five male AGA patients with Norwood-Hamilton classification grade Ⅱ-Ⅲ,were randomly assigned into three groups:the control group 1,the control group 2 and the experimental group,with 25 cases in each group.Patients in the control group 1 received topical 5%minoxidil(1 mL,twice daily).Patients in the control group 2 were treated with both topical 5%minoxidil and oral finasteride(1 mg,once daily).Patients in the experimental group received a combined therapy of 1 565 nm non-ablative fractional laser in addition to topical 5%minoxidil and oral finasteride.Hair overall efficacy was evaluated using a 7-point rating scale after 24 weeks of treatment.Hair diameter and density were measured using a dermoscope.Patient satisfaction was assessed post-treatment,and adverse reactions were recorded.Results The overall efficacy of hair in the experimental group was superior to the control group 1 and the control group 2.There were no significant differences in hair density and hair diameter before treatment between the three groups(P>0.05).After treatment,hair diameter and density increased in all three groups compared to baseline values(P<0.05),and the hair diameter and hair density of the experimental group were higher than those of the control group 1 and the control group 2(P<0.05).Patient satisfaction in the experimental group was higher than that in the control group 1 and the control group 2(P<0.05).Patients in the experimental group experienced tolerable pain and burning sensations during laser treatment,and the symptoms were self-alleviated within a few hours.There were no serious adverse reactions reported in any group.Conclusion The combination therapy of 1 565 nm non-ablative fractional laser,5%minoxidil,and finasteride demonstrates significantly better efficacy in the treatment of AGA than minoxidil and finasteride alone drug therapy.


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