1.Influencing factors for delay in healthcare-seeking, definitive diagnosis, identification in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Minhang District
MA Qiongjin ; YAN Huiqin ; WU Yunhua ; GUO Xu ; YANG Lijia ; TANG Lihong ; YANG Shengyuan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(1):59-64
Objective:
To investigate the influencing factors for delay in healthcare-seeking, definitive diagnosis and identification in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Minhang District, Shanghai Municipality, so as to provide the basis for effectively reducing delay in PTB patients.
Methods:
Data of PTB patients in Minhang District from 2017 to 2022 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The prevalence rates of delay in healthcare-seeking, definitive diagnosis and identification were analyzed, and factors affecting delay in healthcare-seeking, definitive diagnosis and identification were identified using multivariable logistic regression models.
Results:
A total of 4 214 PTB patients were reported in Minhang District from 2017 to 2022, including 2 802 males and 1 412 females, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.98∶1. The majority of patients were aged 25 to <45 years (1 664 cases, 39.49%). The prevalence rates of delay in healthcare-seeking, definitive diagnosis and identification were 36.81%, 30.21% and 38.09%, respectively. Delay in healthcare-seeking was associated with the year (2018, OR=0.708; 2019, OR=0.549; 2020, OR=0.670; 2021, OR=0.682), gender (female, OR=1.199), occupation (worker, OR=1.379; housekeeping service/housework/unemployed, OR=1.481), case identification route (symptom-based consultation, OR=11.159), and level of the first-diagnosed hospital (city-level, OR=1.528). Delay in definitive diagnosis was associated with age (45 to <65 years, OR=1.476), occupation (commercial service, OR=0.687; housekeeping service/housework/unemployed, OR=0.672), household registration (non-local, OR=0.820), case identification route (symptom-based consultation, OR=0.616), pathogen test result (negative/not tested, OR=1.903), and the level of the first-diagnosed hospital (city-level, OR=0.311). Delay in identification was associated with the year (2018, OR=0.785; 2019, OR=0.647; 2020, OR=0.790; 2021, OR=0.710), occupation (commercial service, OR=0.687), household registration (non-local, OR=0.848) and level of the first-diagnosed hospital (city-level, OR=0.560)
Conclusions
Year, gender, occupation, case identification route and level of the first-diagnosed hospital are influencing factors for delay in healthcare-seeking in PTB patients. Age, occupation, household registration, case identification route, pathogen test result and level of the first-diagnosed hospital are influencing factors for delay in definitive diagnosis. Year, occupation, household registration and level of the first-diagnosed hospital are influencing factors for delay in identification.
2.Mechanism of Tangbikang Dry Paste in Prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy Based on GLO-1/AGE/RAGE Pathway
Lijia WU ; Chengfei ZHANG ; Xiaolei JIA ; Lingling QIN ; Haiyan WANG ; Yukun HUANG ; You WANG ; Xincui BAO ; Jing YANG ; Cuiyan LYU ; Tonghua LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(11):60-69
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of Tangbikang dry paste in the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) based on the glyoxalase-1 (GLO-1)/advanced glycation end products (AGE)/receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) pathway. MethodsA total of 56 Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided, with eight assigned to the normal group. The remaining 48 rats were fed a high-fat diet combined with intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin (STZ) to induce a type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) model. Based on blood glucose levels, the rats were randomly assigned to the model group, Tanglin group (13.5 mg·kg-1), metformin group (135 mg·kg-1), and Tangbikang dry paste low-, medium-, and high-dose groups (3, 6, 12 g·kg-1). Successful modeling of DPN was confirmed by a decrease in mechanical pain threshold in the model group at week 4. Fasting blood glucose, body weight, and mechanical pain threshold were measured every 4 weeks. After 16 weeks of intervention, the pathological morphology of the sciatic nerve was observed using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. The expression of RAGE, AGE, protein kinase C (PKC), and collagen (COL) in the sciatic nerve was assessed by immunohistochemistry. The mRNA expression of RAGE, PKC, Toll-like receptor (TLR), COL, and GLO-1 was detected using real-time quantitative PCR (Real-time PCR). Serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), creatinine (CREA), urea (UREA), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group showed significantly increased fasting blood glucose (P<0.01), decreased body weight and mechanical pain threshold (P<0.01), and elevated serum AST, ALT, CREA, UREA, IL-6, and TNF-α levels (P<0.01). The expression of RAGE, AGE, and PKC in the sciatic nerve was significantly increased (P<0.01), while COL expression was decreased (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of TLR, RAGE, and PKC was upregulated (P<0.01), whereas COL and GLO-1 mRNA levels were downregulated (P<0.01). Histological examination showed irregular nerve morphology, axonal alterations, and myelin degeneration. Compared with the model group, fasting blood glucose levels in the Tangbikang dry paste high-dose group at all time points and in the medium-dose group at weeks 4 and 16 were significantly reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01). No significant changes in body weight were observed across all Tangbikang dose groups. The mechanical pain threshold was elevated at different time points after administration in all Tangbikang groups (P<0.05, P<0.01). Serum IL-6 and TNF-α levels were decreased in all dose groups (P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression of RAGE, AGE, and PKC in the sciatic nerve was reduced (P<0.01), while COL expression was increased (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of TLR, RAGE, and PKC was downregulated (P<0.01), whereas GLO-1 mRNA expression was upregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01). Additionally, COL mRNA expression was significantly increased in the low- and high-dose groups (P<0.01). Pathological changes in the sciatic nerve were milder in all Tangbikang groups compared to the model group. ConclusionTangbikang dry paste significantly improves DPN, and its mechanism may be associated with the regulation of the GLO-1/AGE/RAGE signaling pathway.
3.Mechanism of Tangbikang Dry Paste in Prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy Based on GLO-1/AGE/RAGE Pathway
Lijia WU ; Chengfei ZHANG ; Xiaolei JIA ; Lingling QIN ; Haiyan WANG ; Yukun HUANG ; You WANG ; Xincui BAO ; Jing YANG ; Cuiyan LYU ; Tonghua LIU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(11):60-69
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of Tangbikang dry paste in the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) based on the glyoxalase-1 (GLO-1)/advanced glycation end products (AGE)/receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) pathway. MethodsA total of 56 Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided, with eight assigned to the normal group. The remaining 48 rats were fed a high-fat diet combined with intraperitoneal injection of streptozotocin (STZ) to induce a type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) model. Based on blood glucose levels, the rats were randomly assigned to the model group, Tanglin group (13.5 mg·kg-1), metformin group (135 mg·kg-1), and Tangbikang dry paste low-, medium-, and high-dose groups (3, 6, 12 g·kg-1). Successful modeling of DPN was confirmed by a decrease in mechanical pain threshold in the model group at week 4. Fasting blood glucose, body weight, and mechanical pain threshold were measured every 4 weeks. After 16 weeks of intervention, the pathological morphology of the sciatic nerve was observed using hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. The expression of RAGE, AGE, protein kinase C (PKC), and collagen (COL) in the sciatic nerve was assessed by immunohistochemistry. The mRNA expression of RAGE, PKC, Toll-like receptor (TLR), COL, and GLO-1 was detected using real-time quantitative PCR (Real-time PCR). Serum levels of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), creatinine (CREA), urea (UREA), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). ResultsCompared with the normal group, the model group showed significantly increased fasting blood glucose (P<0.01), decreased body weight and mechanical pain threshold (P<0.01), and elevated serum AST, ALT, CREA, UREA, IL-6, and TNF-α levels (P<0.01). The expression of RAGE, AGE, and PKC in the sciatic nerve was significantly increased (P<0.01), while COL expression was decreased (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of TLR, RAGE, and PKC was upregulated (P<0.01), whereas COL and GLO-1 mRNA levels were downregulated (P<0.01). Histological examination showed irregular nerve morphology, axonal alterations, and myelin degeneration. Compared with the model group, fasting blood glucose levels in the Tangbikang dry paste high-dose group at all time points and in the medium-dose group at weeks 4 and 16 were significantly reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01). No significant changes in body weight were observed across all Tangbikang dose groups. The mechanical pain threshold was elevated at different time points after administration in all Tangbikang groups (P<0.05, P<0.01). Serum IL-6 and TNF-α levels were decreased in all dose groups (P<0.05, P<0.01). The expression of RAGE, AGE, and PKC in the sciatic nerve was reduced (P<0.01), while COL expression was increased (P<0.01). The mRNA expression of TLR, RAGE, and PKC was downregulated (P<0.01), whereas GLO-1 mRNA expression was upregulated (P<0.05, P<0.01). Additionally, COL mRNA expression was significantly increased in the low- and high-dose groups (P<0.01). Pathological changes in the sciatic nerve were milder in all Tangbikang groups compared to the model group. ConclusionTangbikang dry paste significantly improves DPN, and its mechanism may be associated with the regulation of the GLO-1/AGE/RAGE signaling pathway.
4.Exploring the practical ways and significance of narrative ability training for resident physicians
Lijia DU ; Rui ZHENG ; Jia NA ; Xiaoxiong ZHU ; Zhifen YANG
Chinese Medical Ethics 2025;38(6):695-703
ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of narrative medicine education on the narrative ability of resident physicians undergoing standardized residency training, and to explore its application value in clinical practice. MethodsA total of 23 obstetricians and gynecologists who participated in residency training at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from October 2021 to June 2024 were randomly selected to receive a 3-month residency training program integrated with narrative medicine education, including narrative theory learning, text reading, reflective writing, and scenario-based case analysis. A questionnaire survey was conducted to analyze the personal situation of resident physicians, their narrative ability before and after receiving narrative medicine education, and their satisfaction with teaching. ResultsThe results of the questionnaire survey showed that resident physicians who had received narrative medicine education scored higher on the narrative ability assessment scale than before training, including improved narrative abilities in the dimensions of life and health narrative awareness, professional narrative thinking, professional development narrative behavior, peer communication narrative behavior, and doctor-patient interaction narrative behavior (P<0.05). However, there were no statistically significant differences in the dimensions of life and health narrative behavior and family connection narrative behavior (P>0.05). Meanwhile, resident physicians’ interest in active learning, clinical thinking ability, doctor-patient communication ability, and satisfaction with teaching methods have also been improved (P<0.05). ConclusionNarrative medicine education can effectively enhance the narrative ability of resident physicians and make up for the current deficiencies in humanistic literacy and ethical education in current medical education. It is of great significance for improving doctor-patient relationships and the quality of medical services. Therefore, it is recommended to integrate narrative medicine education into the regular training curriculum for resident physicians.
5.Ethical dilemmas and their solutions of Internet of Bodies technology empowering smart healthcare
Chinese Medical Ethics 2025;38(9):1164-1170
The Internet of Bodies (IoB) refers to an embodied technology that treats the physical body as a network interface and embeds technological objects into the human body, aiming to collect massive body data. As an emerging technology, the widespread application of IoB in the field of smart healthcare will bring both advantages and disadvantages. It poses ethical risks in terms of physicality, psychology, and sociability, primarily manifested in the uncertainty of technology that may harm patients’ bodies, the easy restriction of patients’ autonomy by external technologies, and issues of fairness and equality caused by the technology gap. Faced with the realistic ethical dilemmas arising from IoB technology empowering smart healthcare, solutions were proposed across several levels. On the ethical mechanism level, an interdisciplinary and multi-field expert alliance should be established to promote the optimization of ethical governance mechanisms. In terms of ethical governance methods, a governance strategy prioritizing “pre-control” should be adopted to front-load ethical risks. On the practical application level, it was vital to clarify the reasonable application boundaries of technology in practice and integrate ethical morality into technology application behavior. Regarding social justice in technology resources, a dual approach of strengthening grassroots investment and educational guidance should be implemented to ensure ethical justice and accessibility in medical practice, thereby guiding the development of IoB technology to align with the fundamental principles of bioethics.
6.Determination of 27 volatile organic compounds in exhaled breath by thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry
Rui GAO ; Fangda PENG ; Yazhen HE ; Jie FENG ; Wubin LIU ; Lijia YU ; Qingsong CHEN ; Chunguang DING
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2024;41(1):96-102
Background Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath are closely associated with respiratory diseases and are linked to various metabolic reactions in the human body. A quantitative analytical method can provide technical support for studying VOCs related to various diseases. Objective To establish a thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) method for the determination of 27 VOCs in exhaled breath. Methods VOCs in exhaled breath were collected using a Bio-VOC sampler and enriched with Tenax TA thermal desorption tubes before TD-GC-MS analysis. Standards were collected using thermal desorption tubes and optimized for thermal desorption conditions as well as chromatographic and mass spectrometric conditions: The separation of the 27 VOCs was achieved by an optimized temperature program, the improvement of sensitivity by optimizing quantitative ions, and the increase of VOCs desorption efficiency by optimizing thermal desorption time and temperature. Limit of detection, limit of quantification, accuracy, precision, and stability of the proposed method were investigated by spiking with a blank gas bag, and exhaled breath samples from 20 healthy individuals were collected for an application study of the proposed method. Results The thermal desorption temperature was 280 ℃, and desorption time was 6 min. A VF-624ms chromatographic column was selected for the separation of target substances. The initial temperature of heating program was 35 ℃, maintained for 1 min, and then increased to 100 ℃ at a heating rate of 3 ℃·min−1 for 1 min, followed by increasing to 210 ℃ at a heating rate of 28 ℃·min−1 for 5 min. A quantitative analysis was conducted with a single ion monitoring (SIM) mode. Under these conditions, the 27 VOCs showed good linear relationships in their respective concentration ranges and the correlation coefficients were higher than 0.9990. The limits of detection of the method were in the range of 0.01-0.13 nmol·mol−1, the limits of quantification were in the range of 0.02-0.44 nmol·mol−1, and the spiked recoveries were in the range of 80.1%-120.5%, with intra-batch and inter-batch precision ≤ 18.8% and 17.9% respectively. All substances can be stored at room temperature (23-28 °C) for 7 d and at 4 °C for 14 d. The proposed method was applied to exhaled breath samples from 20 subjects with detection rates≥ 80% (except for trans-2-pentene and decane) and a concentration range of 0.00-465.50 nmol·mol−1. Conclusion The established TD-GC-MS method for quantification of VOCs in exhaled breath is characterized by high sensitivity and good accuracy, and is suitable for quantitative determination of VOCs in exhaled breath, which can provide technical support for the study of exhaled breath VOCs.
7.Expression Level of CCP/AST in Synovial Fluid and Synovial Tissue of Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients and Its Clinical Significance
Yuguang ZHU ; Lijia FANG ; Suling HUANG
Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine 2024;39(1):162-165,174
Objective To investigate the expression level and clinical significance of cyclic citrullinated peptide antigen-specific T cells(CCP/AST)in synovial fluid and synovial tissue of rheumatoid arthritis(RA)patients.Methods A total of 128 RA patients in Shijiazhuang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January to December 2021 were selected as the RA group,and 50 patients who needed arthroscopy for joint pain in the hospital during the same period were selected as the control group.Among the RA group,there were 46 cases in the mild group,52 cases in the moderate group,and 30 cases in the severe group.The protein expression levels of rheumatoid factors(RF)and anticitrullinated protein antibodies(ACPA)in synovial tissues of the subjects in each group were analyzed by Western blot.The frequency of CCP/AST in the synovial fluid of the subjects was analyzed by flow cytometry.The intensity of the staining of CCP/AST in synovial tissues was observed by double immunofluorescence staining/laser confocal scanning.Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the correlation between the CCP/AST expression of synovial fluid and synovial tissue and RF and ACPA.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for the development of rheumatoid arthritis.Results In the order of control,mild,moderate and severe groups,RF(1.01±0.01,1.53±0.03,2.01±0.08,2.66±0.12 kDa)and ACPA proteins(1.03±0.01,1.61±0.03,2.04±0.10,2.59±0.13 kDa)in synovial tissues of patients were sequentially elevated,and the differences were all statistically significant(F=14.207,12.446,all P<0.05).The expression of CCP/AST in synovial fluid of patients in the control,mild,moderate and severe groups was increased sequentially(8.26%±1.68%,22.46%±3.28%,33.58%±4.37%,46.15%±5.44%),and the difference was statistically significant(F=25.306,P<0.05).Meanwhile,the intensity of CCP/AST staining in synovial tissues of patients in the control,mild,moderate and severe groups was also increased sequentially(1.05±0.26,1.35±0.89,2.04±0.56,2.78±0.15 score),and the difference was statistically significant(F=70.67,P<0.05).The expression of CCP/AST in the synovial fluid and synovial tissues of patients with RA was positively correlated with RF(r=0.861,0.934,all P<0.05)and ACPA in synovial fluid and synovial tissue(r=0.854,0.913,all P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension(OR=3.241,95%CI:1.491~6.752),diabetes mellitus(OR=2.565,95%CI:1.126~5.813),synovial fluid(OR=4.450,95%CI:1.652~11.622),and CCP/AST expression in synovial tissues(OR=5.629,95%CI:2.474~12.390)were independent risk factors for the development of RA(P<0.05).Conclusion CCP/AST showed high expression in synovial fluid and synovial tissue of RA patients and related to disease activity and joint destruction,which can be used to assess the clinical joint mobility and bone destruction degree in such patients.
8.Diagnostic value of multimodal MR in differentiating fibroadenoma from phyllodes tumor with maximum diameter≥5 cm
Lijia WANG ; Hui FENG ; Jiangyang PAN ; Qian XU ; Qi WANG
Journal of Practical Radiology 2024;40(3):377-380,410
Objective To analyze the clinical and MR characteristics of fibroadenoma(FA)and phyllodes tumor(PT)with maxi-mum diameter≥5 cm.Methods A total of 33 cases with FA and 34 cases with PT were selected,and all lesions with maximum diameter≥5 cm were confirmed by surgical pathology.The clinical and MR characteristics were analyzed retrospectively.Results PT and FA with tumor maximum diameter≥5 cm were more common in perimenopausal women[(47.35±11.36)years old vs(49.42±11.73)years old,P>0.05],while the FA patient was with the wider age range(19-79 years old).There was statistically significant difference in tumor maximum diameter between PT group and FA group(P<0.001),and tumor maximum diameter of PT group(median 7.06 cm,tumor maximum diameter 17.3 cm)was significantly larger than that of FA group.Coarse calcification was more common in the FA group compared to the PT group(5 vs 0,P=0.011).High signal on T1WI was more common in PT group rela-tive to FA group(50%vs 9.1%,P<0.001).There were no significant differences between the two groups in four characteristics,including tumor margin lobulation(97.1%vs 81.8%),T2WI low signal separation(32.4%vs 30.3%),fibroglandular tissue(FGT),and background parenchymal enhancement(BPE)(P>0.05).Time-signal intensity curve(TIC)of FA group showed typeⅠ and Ⅱ curves,while 4 cases(11.8%)in PT group showed type Ⅲ curves,and there was statistically significant difference in TIC between the two groups(P=0.008).The apparent diffusion coefficient(ADC)values of PT group[(1.48±0.17)×10-3mm2/s]was slightly lower than that of FA group[(1.55±0.20)×10-3 mm2/s],and there was no significant difference in ADC between the two groups(P>0.05).The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the best diagnostic cut-off value for distinguishing between PT and FA with maximum diameter≥5 cm was 6.36 cm,the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.927[95%confidence in-terval(CI)0.860-0.994;P<0.001].The AUC of the T1 WI high signal was 0.705,and the standard error was 0.065(95%CI 0.578-0.831;P=0.004).Conclusion Among FA and PT with tumor maximum diameter≥5 cm,PT appear to be more larger lesion and prone to higher signal intensity on T1WI compared to FA,while coarse calcification is more common in FA.
9.Clinical characteristics of children reintubated within 48 hours in pediatric intensive care unit
Hui ZHOU ; Lijia DU ; Pan LIU ; Yuxin LIU ; Yan DU ; Zhengzheng ZHANG ; Weiming CHEN ; Guoping LU
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine 2024;31(3):183-188
Objective:To analyze clinical characteristics of patients within 48 hours in pediatric intensive care unit(PICU),and investigate causes and prognosis of extubation failure in reintubation children.Methods:A single-center retrospective study was conducted.Patients who were reintubated within 48 hours after extubation in PICU at Children's Hospital of Fudan University from January 1,2019 to December 31,2022 were retrospectively enrolled.Patients with unplanned extubation for various reasons which include re-intubation due to surgery and replacement of tracheal intubation were excluded.We analyzed the clinical characteristics,causes of extubation failure and prognosis.Main outcome measures included principal diagnosis,pediatric critical illness score(PCIS),the reason of intubation,the glasgow coma scale(GCS),the direct cause of reintubation,aeration time,hospitalization period,outcomes at PICU discharge and whether to extubate successfully.Results:During the study period,a total of 2 652 patients were extubated in PICU,and a total of 87 children were enrolled.Finally,63(72.4%)patients survived at PICU,nine(10.3%)patients died in hospital,and 15(17.2%)patients were discharged automatically.In the survival group,38(60.3%)patients were decannulated and 25(39.7%)patients underwent tracheotomy.The top three principal diagnosis in 87 cases were central nervous system disease[34(39.1%)cases],lower airway disease[18(20.7%)cases] and sepsis[nine(10.3%)cases].Of the 87 children,28(32.2%)patients were reintubated due to central respiratory failure,21(24.1%)patients were reintubated due to lower airway disease,20(23.0%)patients were reintubated due to upper airway obstruction,14(16.1%)patients were reintubated due to cough weakness and/or swallowing disturbance,and four(4.6%)patients were reintubated for other reasons.In children with mechanical ventilation duration ≥7 days before first extubation,central nervous system diseases were the most common primary diseases,and it accounts for 55.6%.Central respiratory failure was the main direct cause of reintubation,accounting for 40.0%,and more patients(40.0%) had GCS scores<8 before the first intubation.Compared with the successful decannulation group,the extubation failure group had the higher proportion of children with GCS<8(32.7% vs.10.5%, P<0.05),the longer median duration of mechanical ventilation before the first extubation[239(123,349)h vs.68.5(19,206)h, P<0.05]and the longer median length of ICU stay[38(23,54)d vs.24(12,43)d, P<0.05].After comparing the three groups including survival group,in-hospital death group and automatic discharge group,the PCIS score of the survival group was the highest,and the in-hospital death group was the lowest( P<0.05). Conclusion:The rate of reintubation at 48 h after extubation in PICU is 3.3%.The immediate causes of reintubation mainly included central respiratory failure,lower airway disease,upper airway obstruction,cough weakness and/or dysphagia.The mortality rate of reintubation in critically ill children is high and the prognosis is poor.
10.Development of a prediction model for incidence of diabetic foot in patients with type 2 diabetes and its application based on a local health data platform
Yexian YU ; Meng ZHANG ; Xiaowei CHEN ; Lijia LIU ; Pei LI ; Houyu ZHAO ; Yexiang SUN ; Hongyu SUN ; Yumei SUN ; Xueyang LIU ; Hongbo LIN ; Peng SHEN ; Siyan ZHAN ; Feng SUN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(7):997-1006
Objective:To construct a diabetes foot prediction model for adult patients with type 2 diabetes based on retrospective cohort study using data from a regional health data platform.Methods:Using Yinzhou Health Information Platform of Ningbo, adult patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2022 were included in this study and divided randomly the train and test sets according to the ratio of 7∶3. LASSO regression model and bidirectional stepwise regression model were used to identify risk factors, and model comparisons were conducted with net reclassification index, integrated discrimination improvement and concordance index. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were constructed, and a nomogram plot was drawn. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as a discriminant evaluation indicator for model validation test its calibration ability, and calibration curves were drawn to test its calibration ability.Results:No significant difference existed between LASSO regression model and bidirectional stepwise regression model, but the better bidirectional stepwise regression model was selected as the final model. The risk factors included age of onset, gender, hemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, taking angiotensin receptor blocker and smoking history. AUC values (95% CI) of risk outcome prediction at year 5 and 7 were 0.700 (0.650-0.749) and 0.715(0.668-0.762) for the train set and 0.738 (0.667-0.801) and 0.723 (0.663-0.783) for the test set, respectively. The calibration curves were close to the ideal curve, and the model discrimination and calibration powers were both good. Conclusions:This study established a convenient prediction model for diabetic foot and classified the risk levels. The model has strong interpretability, good discrimination power, and satisfactory calibration and can be used to predict the incidence of diabetes foot in adult patients with type 2 diabetes to provide a basis for self-assessment and clinical prediction of diabetic foot disease risk.


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