1.Feasibility of the spatiotemporal filtering model for analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of reported schistosomiasis cases
Jiayao XU ; Zengliang WANG ; Fenghua GAO ; Zhijie ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(3):232-238
Objective To investigate the feasibility of the spatiotemporal filtering model in analysis of reported schistosomiasis cases, so as to provide insights into analysis of complicated data pertaining to schistosomiasis control. Methods Demographic and epidemiological data of reported schistosomiasis cases in Anhui Province from 1997 to 2010 were collected from Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the annual prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum human infections was calculated. The meteorological data were captured from meteorological stations in counties (cities, districts) of Anhui Province where schistosomiasis cases were reported from 1997 to 2010 at the National Meteorological Information Center, including monthly average air temperature and precipitation. Meteorological data were interpolated using the inverse-distance weighting method, and the annual average air temperature and annual precipitation were calculated in each county (city, district). The centroid of the county (city, district) where schistosomiasis cases were reported was extracted using the software ArcGIS 10.0, and the Euclidean distance from each centroid to the Yangtze River was calculated as the distance between that county (city, district) and the Yangtze River. The global Moran’s I of the prevalence of S. japonicum human infections in Anhui Province for each year from 1997 to 2010 were calculated to analyze the spatial autocorrelation. A spatial weight matrix was constructed using Rook adjacency, and a first-order temporal weight matrix was built to quantify the relationship between disease changes over time. Subsequently, a spatiotemporal structure matrix was constructed. A negative binomial model was built based on the spatiotemporal structure matrix and data pertaining to reported schistosomiasis cases, and a linear model was created between the residual of the model and candidate set feature vectors to determine the optimal subset composition of the spatiotemporal filter through stepwise regression. Then, a spatio-temporal filtering model was constructed using the negative binomial model. Negative binomial models, Bayesian spatial models, and Bayesian spatiotemporal models were constructed and compared with the spatiotemporal filtering model to validate the performance of the spatiotemporal filtering model, and cross-validation was conducted for each model. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC), and the effectiveness of model validation was assessed using mean squared error (MSE), while the accuracy of assessment results was assessed using coefficients and their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and the computational efficiency was assessed based on the running time of the model. The four feature vectors with the largest Moran’s I values were selected to identify regions with autocorrelation through their schematic diagrams to investigate the differences in spatiotemporal patterns of specific regions. Results Of all models created, the spatiotemporal filtering model exhibited the highest goodness of fit (DIC = 3 240.70, WAIC = 3 257.80), the best model validation effectiveness (MSE = 42 617.52), and the runtime was 3.18 s, exhibiting the optimal performance. Across all modeling results, the distance from the Yangtze River showed a negative correlation with the number of reported schistosomiasis cases (coefficient values = −4.93 to −3.78, none of the 95% CIs included 0), and annual average air temperature or average precipitation posed no significant effects on numbers of reported schistosomiasis cases (both of the 95% CIs included 0). Schematic diagrams of feature vectors showed that the transmission of schistosomiasis might be associated with water systems in Anhui Province, and localized clustering patterns were primarily concentrated in the northern and western parts of schistosomiasis-endemic areas in the province. Conclusion The spatiotemporal filtering model is an effective spatiotemporal analysis characterized by simple modeling, user-friendly operation, accurate results and good flexibility, which may serve as an efficient alternative to conventional complex spatiotemporal models for data analysis in schistosomiasis researches.
2.Trends in areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 based on the Mann-Kendall test
Fenghua GAO ; Shiqing ZHANG ; Songjun DING ; Xiaojuan XU ; Tianping WANG ; Bo DAI
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2024;36(5):460-465
Objective To investigate the trends in areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, so as to provide insights into facilitating the progress of schistosomiasis elimination in the province. Methods Areas of O. hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 were collected, and the trends in and mutations of O. hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province, and the trends in O. hupensis snail habitats in different types of schistosomiasis-endemic foci and in different cities of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. Results The areas of O. hupensis snail habitats reduced by 12.62% in Anhui Province in 2023 relative to in 2004. Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the areas of O. hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 (Z = −3.926, P < 0.001, β = −215.66), with an annual average reduction of 215.66 hm2. Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the areas of O. hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in Anhui Province since 2015 (|Z| > U0.05, P < 0.05). The areas of O. hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in marshland and lake regions (Z = −4.899, P < 0.001, β = −260.13), and a tendency towards a rise in hilly regions of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 (Z = 2.758, P < 0.01, β = 44.55). Among 9 cities endemic for schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, the areas of O. hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in 5 cities of Ma’anshan, Tongling, Anqing, Huangshan and Chizhou (Z = −4.056 to −2.109, all P values < 0.05, β = −92.12 to −0.45). The average constituent ratios of areas of O. hupensis snail habitats were 88.19% and 11.81% in marshland and lake regions and hilly regions of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, respectively, and the ratio of areas of O. hupensis snail habitats in marshland and lake regions to areas of snail habitats in hilly regions reduced from 9.23∶1 in 2004 to 5.74∶1 in 2023 in Anhui Province, with the ratio appearing a tendency towards a decline (Z = −4.477, P < 0.001, β = −0.16). Conclusions The areas of O. hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023, with a reduction in areas of O. hupensis snail habitats in marshland and lake regions and a rise in hilly regions. Targeted O. hupensis snail control interventions are required tailored to real snail status.
3.Prediction of areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province based on five machine learning models
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2024;36(6):572-576
Objective To predict the areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province from 1977 to 2023 using machine learning models, and to compare the effectiveness of different machine learning models for prediction of areas of O. hupensis snail spread, so as to provide insights into investigating the trends in areas of O. hupensis snail spread. Methods Data pertaining to O. hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province from 1977 to 2023 were collected and a database was created. Five machine learning models were created using the software Matlab R2019b, including support vector regression (SVR), nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network, back propagation (BP) neural network, gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, and the model fitting effect was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Following model training, the areas of O. hupensis snail spread were predicted in Anhui Province from 2024 to 2030. Results The cumulative areas of O. hupensis snail spread were 40 241.32 hm2 in Anhui Province from 1977 to 2023, and the area of O. hupensis snail spread varied greatly among years, with a periodic peak every 4 to 6 years. The fitting curves of SVR, NAR neural network, BP neural network, GRU neural network and LSTM neural network models were increasingly closer to the real curves for areas of O. hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province. The trends in areas of O. hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province from 2024 to 2030 appeared approximately "M"-shaped curves by SVR and NAR neural network models, approximately "W"-shaped curves by BP and GRU neural network models, and a unimodal conical curve by the LSTM neural network model. The LSTM neural network model had the best effect for predicting areas of O. hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province, with the RMSE of 1 277 480, MAE of 797 422 and R2 of 0.978 9, respectively. Conclusions Among the five models, The LSTM neural network model has a high efficiency for predicting areas of O. hupensis snail spread in Anhui Province, which may serve as a tool to investigate the trends in areas of O. hupensis snail spread.
4.Research advance in regulative effects of class Ⅰ histone deacetylase on ischemic stroke
Yunqi SU ; Xingwei JIANG ; Jun MA ; Jiayuan GONG ; Fenghua GAO ; Qun YU
Chinese Journal of Pharmacology and Toxicology 2024;38(5):392-400
Ischemic stroke,due to its high prevalence and mortality,has become one of the most important public health concerns globally.Nerve cell damage is the main biological event in its patho-logical process and there is still a lack of effective neuroprotective drugs for clinical use.Numerous studies have shown that inhibitions of histone deacetylases(HDACs)can exert neuroprotective effects in ischemic stroke.Due to the multiple types of HDACs and the relatively poor specificity of HDAC inhib-itors,it has been difficult to identify any HDAC that plays a key role in ischemic stroke.ClassⅠHDACs include four members:HDAC1,HDAC2,HDAC3,and HDAC8,and have been more in-depth in isch-emic stroke.The complex mechanisms of classⅠHDAC inhibitors that have been discovered so far involve neural cell function,neuroinflammation and blood-brain barriers.This article is intended to study the regulatory role of classⅠHDACs in ischemic stroke in the hopes of providing reference for the developments of effective drugs targeting HDACs.
5.Distribution and regulation of G-quadruplexes in genes related to glycolysis
Pengyu LIU ; Xingwei JIANG ; Jun MA ; Fenghua GAO ; Zhe WANG ; Suping REN ; Jiayuan GONG ; Qun YU
Chinese Journal of Pharmacology and Toxicology 2024;38(7):517-525
OBJECTIVE To investigate the distribution and regulation of G-quadruplex(G4)in enzymes related to glycolysis.METHODS The sequences of the transcription start site(TSS)region upstream of 1500 bp to the 5'-Untranslated region in 200 enzymes and their subtypes in glycolysis were selected for bioinformatics analysis.Related enzymes in glycolysis containing putative G-quadru-plex-forming sequences(PQSs)were identified.Circular Dichroism and Native polyacrylamide gel elec-trophoresis were used to verify the formation of G4.The ExonucleaseⅠhydrolysis assay was used to validate the stability of the formed G4 under 0,0.5,2,8,16,and 32 min.A reporter gene plasmid was constructed by inserting specific fragments of the related enzymes before the luciferase expression sequence.The dual-luciferase reporter assay system validate the expression level of luciferase to assess the impact of G4 on promoter activity.Real-time quantitative PCR was performed to validate the transcriptional regulatory role of G4 by detecting the mRNA levels of luciferase.RESULTS ①Bioin-formatics analysis showed that out of the 200 glycolysis-related enzymes,12 contained PQSs.Based on the analysis of the length and structure of PQSs,aldolase A(ALDOA)and phosphoglycerate mutase 2(PGAM2)proved to be able to form stable G4.② ALDOA and PGAM2 had the maximum positive absorption peak at 260 nm and maximum negative absorption peak at 240 nm.Both of them could form a G4 at the same time.③After digestion with ExonucleaseⅠ,ALDOA and PGAM2 showed no significant hydrolysis and demonstrated the stability of G4 structures.However,both of them could be gradually hydrolyzed after mutations in their PQSs.④ After PQS mutation of ALDOA and PGAM2,the mRNA levels and expression of downstream luciferase of ALDOA were significantly increased(P<0.05,P<0.01),while PGAM2 was significantly decreased(P<0.05,P<0.01).CONCLUSION The gene sequences of glycolysis-related enzymes and their subtypes contain a large number of PQSs.ALDOA and PGAM2 can form stable G4 and perform transcriptional regulatory functions.
6.Pathological evaluation of multiple intestinal segments and the macro-phage function study in hemorrhage rats
Hanqi WEI ; Jun MA ; Xingwei JIANG ; Yunqi SU ; Fenghua GAO ; Changwen NING ; Huaying AN ; Jiayuan GONG ; Pengyu LIU ; Zhe WANG ; Qun YU
Military Medical Sciences 2024;48(11):815-825
Objective To investigate the pathological damage to and inflammation of different intestinal segments in a rat model of severe hemorrhage,and to explore the effect of polarization of intestinal macrophage on the pathophysiology of intestinal inflammation.Methods Male Wistar rats were randomly divided into two groups:the sham operation group and hemorrhage group.In the hemorrhage group,40%of the total blood volume was lost in 25-30 minutes,while in the sham operation group,only the femoral artery and vein were intubated without bleeding.The rats were killed at 0,3,6,12 and 24 hours.The entire intestine was isolated quickly,and sections of the intestine were cut at the duodenum,jejunum,ileocecal junction,colon and rectum for histopathological evaluation.ELISA was adopted to determine related inflammation factors while multi-color immunohistochemistry was used to calculate macrophage surface markers.The data was statistically analyzed.Results(1)Compared with the sham group,there was no significant difference in colon histology at 3 h and 6 h,but significant difference was detected in rectum scores only at 24 h.The scores of other intestinal segments were significantly different at each time point.The severity of ileocecal and colonic lesions after bleeding increased with time.The duodenum,jejunum and ileocecum were more critically injured at 3 h than the rectum at 6 h.The injury to the duodenum,jejunum,ileum and colon was much more pronounced than to the rectum at 12 h.(2)The expressions of TNF-α and IL-1β in the rectum were increased significantly at 12 h post operation.The expressions of IL-1β,TNF-α in the jejunum increased obviously at 3 h and 6 h,respectively.(3)Three hours after severe bleeding,the level of macrophages in the jejunum and ileocececal area increased significantly,and the percentage of M1 macrophages was higher.After 6 hours,the proportion of M2 macrophages in the jejunum and M1 macrophages decreased significantly.After 3 hours,the percentage of M1 macrophages in the colon decreased,but that of M2 macrophages increased.The proportion of M2 polarized macrophages in the duodenum and rectum increased at 3 h after severe bleeding but decreased at 6 h.Conclusion Pathological damage to intestinal sections after bleeding varies depending on the time,and is correlated with the inflammatory level of macrophages.
7.Clinicopathological and molecular characteristics of pediatric gliomas: analysis of 111 cases
Hui XU ; Huilin NIU ; Fenghua WANG ; Xinke XU ; Wei WANG ; Li YUAN ; Kai CHEN ; Qiu GAO ; Liping LI ; Jianqing XIA ; Zhongming GUO
Chinese Journal of Pathology 2024;53(9):922-928
Objective:To summarize the clinical, pathological and molecular characteristics of various types of pediatric glioma, and to explore the differences in the morphology and clinical significance among various types of pediatric glioma.Methods:Based on the fifth edition of the World Health Organization classification of central nervous system tumors, this study classified or reclassified 111 pediatric gliomas that were diagnosed at Guangzhou Medical University Affiliated Women and Children′s Medical Center from January 2020 to June 2023. The clinical manifestations, imaging findings, histopathology, and molecular characteristics of these tumors were analyzed. Relevant literature was also reviewed.Results:The 111 patients with pediatric glioma included 56 males and 55 females, with the age ranging from 10 days to 13 years (average age, 5.5 years). Clinically, manifestations presented from 5 days to 8 years before the diagnosis, including epilepsy in 16 cases, increased intracranial pressure in 48 cases and neurological impairment in 66 cases. MRI examinations revealed tumor locations as supratentorial in 43 cases, infratentorial in 65 cases, and spinal cord in 3 cases. There were 73 cases presented with a solid mass and 38 cases with cystic-solid lesions. The largest tumor diameter ranged from 1.4 to 10.6 cm. Among the 111 pediatric gliomas, there were 6 cases of pediatric diffuse low-grade glioma (pDLGG), 63 cases of circumscribed astrocytoma glioma (CAG), and 42 cases of pediatric diffuse high-grade glioma (pDHGG). Patients with pDLGG and CAG were younger than those with pDHGG. The incidence of pDLGG and CAG was significantly lower in the midline of the infratentorial region compared to that of pDHGG. They were more likely to be completely resected surgically. The pDLGG and CAG group included 4 cases of pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma, showing histological features of high-grade gliomas. Among the high-grade gliomas, 13 cases were diffuse midline gliomas and also showed histological features of low-grade glioma. Immunohistochemical studies of H3K27M, H3K27ME3, p53, ATRX, BRAF V600E, and Ki-67 showed significant differences between the pDLGG and CAG group versus the pDHGG group ( P<0.01). Molecular testing revealed that common molecular variations in the pDLGG and CAG group were KIAA1549-BRAF fusion and BRAF V600E mutation, while the pDHGG group frequently exhibited mutations in HIST1H3B and H3F3A genes, 1q amplification, and TP53 gene mutations. With integrated molecular testing, 2 pathological diagnoses were revised, and the pathological subtypes of 35.3% (12/34) of the pediatric gliomas that could not be reliably classified by histology were successfully classified. Conclusions:There are significant differences in clinical manifestations, pathological characteristics, molecular variations, and prognosis between the pDLGG, CAG and pDHGG groups. The integrated diagnosis combining histology and molecular features is of great importance for the accurate diagnosis and treatment of pediatric gliomas.
8.Chinese expert consensus on blood support mode and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma patients (version 2024)
Yao LU ; Yang LI ; Leiying ZHANG ; Hao TANG ; Huidan JING ; Yaoli WANG ; Xiangzhi JIA ; Li BA ; Maohong BIAN ; Dan CAI ; Hui CAI ; Xiaohong CAI ; Zhanshan ZHA ; Bingyu CHEN ; Daqing CHEN ; Feng CHEN ; Guoan CHEN ; Haiming CHEN ; Jing CHEN ; Min CHEN ; Qing CHEN ; Shu CHEN ; Xi CHEN ; Jinfeng CHENG ; Xiaoling CHU ; Hongwang CUI ; Xin CUI ; Zhen DA ; Ying DAI ; Surong DENG ; Weiqun DONG ; Weimin FAN ; Ke FENG ; Danhui FU ; Yongshui FU ; Qi FU ; Xuemei FU ; Jia GAN ; Xinyu GAN ; Wei GAO ; Huaizheng GONG ; Rong GUI ; Geng GUO ; Ning HAN ; Yiwen HAO ; Wubing HE ; Qiang HONG ; Ruiqin HOU ; Wei HOU ; Jie HU ; Peiyang HU ; Xi HU ; Xiaoyu HU ; Guangbin HUANG ; Jie HUANG ; Xiangyan HUANG ; Yuanshuai HUANG ; Shouyong HUN ; Xuebing JIANG ; Ping JIN ; Dong LAI ; Aiping LE ; Hongmei LI ; Bijuan LI ; Cuiying LI ; Daihong LI ; Haihong LI ; He LI ; Hui LI ; Jianping LI ; Ning LI ; Xiying LI ; Xiangmin LI ; Xiaofei LI ; Xiaojuan LI ; Zhiqiang LI ; Zhongjun LI ; Zunyan LI ; Huaqin LIANG ; Xiaohua LIANG ; Dongfa LIAO ; Qun LIAO ; Yan LIAO ; Jiajin LIN ; Chunxia LIU ; Fenghua LIU ; Peixian LIU ; Tiemei LIU ; Xiaoxin LIU ; Zhiwei LIU ; Zhongdi LIU ; Hua LU ; Jianfeng LUAN ; Jianjun LUO ; Qun LUO ; Dingfeng LYU ; Qi LYU ; Xianping LYU ; Aijun MA ; Liqiang MA ; Shuxuan MA ; Xainjun MA ; Xiaogang MA ; Xiaoli MA ; Guoqing MAO ; Shijie MU ; Shaolin NIE ; Shujuan OUYANG ; Xilin OUYANG ; Chunqiu PAN ; Jian PAN ; Xiaohua PAN ; Lei PENG ; Tao PENG ; Baohua QIAN ; Shu QIAO ; Li QIN ; Ying REN ; Zhaoqi REN ; Ruiming RONG ; Changshan SU ; Mingwei SUN ; Wenwu SUN ; Zhenwei SUN ; Haiping TANG ; Xiaofeng TANG ; Changjiu TANG ; Cuihua TAO ; Zhibin TIAN ; Juan WANG ; Baoyan WANG ; Chunyan WANG ; Gefei WANG ; Haiyan WANG ; Hongjie WANG ; Peng WANG ; Pengli WANG ; Qiushi WANG ; Xiaoning WANG ; Xinhua WANG ; Xuefeng WANG ; Yong WANG ; Yongjun WANG ; Yuanjie WANG ; Zhihua WANG ; Shaojun WEI ; Yaming WEI ; Jianbo WEN ; Jun WEN ; Jiang WU ; Jufeng WU ; Aijun XIA ; Fei XIA ; Rong XIA ; Jue XIE ; Yanchao XING ; Yan XIONG ; Feng XU ; Yongzhu XU ; Yongan XU ; Yonghe YAN ; Beizhan YAN ; Jiang YANG ; Jiangcun YANG ; Jun YANG ; Xinwen YANG ; Yongyi YANG ; Chunyan YAO ; Mingliang YE ; Changlin YIN ; Ming YIN ; Wen YIN ; Lianling YU ; Shuhong YU ; Zebo YU ; Yigang YU ; Anyong YU ; Hong YUAN ; Yi YUAN ; Chan ZHANG ; Jinjun ZHANG ; Jun ZHANG ; Kai ZHANG ; Leibing ZHANG ; Quan ZHANG ; Rongjiang ZHANG ; Sanming ZHANG ; Shengji ZHANG ; Shuo ZHANG ; Wei ZHANG ; Weidong ZHANG ; Xi ZHANG ; Xingwen ZHANG ; Guixi ZHANG ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Guoqing ZHAO ; Jianpeng ZHAO ; Shuming ZHAO ; Beibei ZHENG ; Shangen ZHENG ; Huayou ZHOU ; Jicheng ZHOU ; Lihong ZHOU ; Mou ZHOU ; Xiaoyu ZHOU ; Xuelian ZHOU ; Yuan ZHOU ; Zheng ZHOU ; Zuhuang ZHOU ; Haiyan ZHU ; Peiyuan ZHU ; Changju ZHU ; Lili ZHU ; Zhengguo WANG ; Jianxin JIANG ; Deqing WANG ; Jiongcai LAN ; Quanli WANG ; Yang YU ; Lianyang ZHANG ; Aiqing WEN
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2024;40(10):865-881
Patients with severe trauma require an extremely timely treatment and transfusion plays an irreplaceable role in the emergency treatment of such patients. An increasing number of evidence-based medicinal evidences and clinical practices suggest that patients with severe traumatic bleeding benefit from early transfusion of low-titer group O whole blood or hemostatic resuscitation with red blood cells, plasma and platelet of a balanced ratio. However, the current domestic mode of blood supply cannot fully meet the requirements of timely and effective blood transfusion for emergency treatment of patients with severe trauma in clinical practice. In order to solve the key problems in blood supply and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma, Branch of Clinical Transfusion Medicine of Chinese Medical Association, Group for Trauma Emergency Care and Multiple Injuries of Trauma Branch of Chinese Medical Association, Young Scholar Group of Disaster Medicine Branch of Chinese Medical Association organized domestic experts of blood transfusion medicine and trauma treatment to jointly formulate Chinese expert consensus on blood support mode and blood transfusion strategies for emergency treatment of severe trauma patients ( version 2024). Based on the evidence-based medical evidence and Delphi method of expert consultation and voting, 10 recommendations were put forward from two aspects of blood support mode and transfusion strategies, aiming to provide a reference for transfusion resuscitation in the emergency treatment of severe trauma and further improve the success rate of treatment of patients with severe trauma.
9.Unraveling trends in schistosomiasis: deep learning insights into national control programs in China
Qing SU ; Cici Xi Chen BAUER ; Robert BERGQUIST ; Zhiguo CAO ; Fenghua GAO ; Zhijie ZHANG ; Yi HU
Epidemiology and Health 2024;46(1):e2024039-
OBJECTIVES:
To achieve the ambitious goal of eliminating schistosome infections, the Chinese government has implemented diverse control strategies. This study explored the progress of the 2 most recent national schistosomiasis control programs in an endemic area along the Yangtze River in China.
METHODS:
We obtained village-level parasitological data from cross-sectional surveys combined with environmental data in Anhui Province, China from 1997 to 2015. A convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a hierarchical integro-difference equation (IDE) framework (i.e., CNN-IDE) was used to model spatio-temporal variations in schistosomiasis. Two traditional models were also constructed for comparison with 2 evaluation indicators: the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS).
RESULTS:
The CNN-IDE model was the optimal model, with the lowest overall average MSPE of 0.04 and the CRPS of 0.19. From 1997 to 2011, the prevalence exhibited a notable trend: it increased steadily until peaking at 1.6 per 1,000 in 2005, then gradually declined, stabilizing at a lower rate of approximately 0.6 per 1,000 in 2006, and approaching zero by 2011. During this period, noticeable geographic disparities in schistosomiasis prevalence were observed; high-risk areas were initially dispersed, followed by contraction. Predictions for the period 2012 to 2015 demonstrated a consistent and uniform decrease.
CONCLUSIONS
The proposed CNN-IDE model captured the intricate and evolving dynamics of schistosomiasis prevalence, offering a promising alternative for future risk modeling of the disease. The comprehensive strategy is expected to help diminish schistosomiasis infection, emphasizing the necessity to continue implementing this strategy.
10.Prevalence and factors influencing adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in Zhongshan City
HUANG Sizhe, LI Fenghua, YANG Junlin, TANG Weiming, HUANG Zifang, GAO Yihao, CHENG Mengyuan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2023;44(6):925-929
Objective:
To investigate factors influencing adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), and to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and treatment programs.
Methods:
A questionnaire survey was conducted among 6 757 students who participated in the scoliosis screening program for primary and middle school students in Zhongshan City, China from April 2019 to March 2020. Visual examination and Adams flexion test were used to measure the rotation angle of trunk. For each student, individual and family demographics, family history of scoliosis, daily postural habits, school bag carrying habits, vision, health, school environment, and physical activity were collected by questionnaire. Factors influencing AIS were analyzed using Chi square test and multivariate Logistic regression.
Results:
The positive screening rate for AIS was 2.0%(135 cases). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that female gender, no family history of AIS, standing with lumbar spine tilted forward, habit of leaning to the left when seated, and a monthly family income of >10 000 yuan were related to the occurrence of AIS in adolescents ( OR =3.01, 0.38, 2.29, 1.74, 0.44, P <0.05).
Conclusion
Female students aged 10-16 years with a family history of scoliosis in Zhongshan are identified as a high risk group for scoliosis screening. Developing proper standing and sitting habits helps to reduce the risk of AIS in adolescents.


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