1.Epidemic characteristics and trend of brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2018
Tian LIU ; Yang WU ; Yeqing TONG ; Jigui HUANG ; Dexin RUAN ; Qingbo HOU ; Menglei YAO ; Jing ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2024;43(3):190-196
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2018, in order to understand the development trend of brucellosis.Methods:The surveillance data of brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2018 were collected from National Public Health Science Data Center. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of brucellosis incidence in China and various provinces. Overall trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of brucellosis in China and various provinces. The age-related thermodynamic diagram of incidence rate was used to analyze the characteristics of age-onset changes.Results:From 2004 to 2018, a total of 524 980 brucellosis cases and 16 deaths were reported nationwide, with a incidence rate of 2.61/100 000 and a case fatality rate of (3.05 × 10 -3)%. The incidence of brucellosis in China was on the rise (AAPC = 11.58%, 95% CI: 7.91% - 15.25%, P < 0.001). There was no significant trend of change in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces ( P > 0.05). Tibet Autonomous Region showed a downward trend (AAPC = - 55.19%, P < 0.001). All other provinces were showing an upward trend (AAPC > 0, P < 0.05). The peak incidence in China occurred from April to June. In terms of provinces, the peak incidence in Hainan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Fujian and Anhui provinces occurred from April to August, the peak incidence in Chongqing and Shanghai cities occurred from June to August, and the peak incidence in other provinces was generally from April to June. There were reports of brucellosis cases in all age groups nationwide, and the age distribution showed an inverted "V" shape. The peak incidence occurred in the 50 - 54 years old (5.43/100 000), followed by the 60 - 64 years old (4.94/100 000). From 2004 to 2018, the top 3 age groups of incidence rate changed from 40 - 44, 50 - 54 and 35 - 39 years old in 2004 to 50 - 54, 60 - 64 and 55 - 59 years old in 2018. Conclusions:The incidence of brucellosis is on the rise nationwide and in most provinces from 2004 to 2018. The high incidence age is gradually changing to the elderly population.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
2.Epidemiological characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in China, 2018-2021
Xiaoxia HUANG ; Shanshan DU ; Aqian LI ; Chuan LI ; Tingting TIAN ; Tiezhu LIU ; Qin WANG ; Mifang LIANG ; Shiwen WANG ; Jiandong LI ; Dexin LI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(1):112-116
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) in China.Methods:The incidence data of SFTS in China from 2018 to 2021 were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for a statistical and descriptive epidemiological analysis by using software such as Excel 2016, Joinpoint 5.0.2, SPSS 26.0, and GraphPad Prism 8.0, especially, the SFTS cases reported monthly by key provinces were analyzed.Results:From 2018 to 2021, a total of 8 835 SFTS cases were reported in 25 provinces and the annual incidence showed an upward trend. The distribution of SFTS cases showed clustering, but the cases were mainly sporadic ones. The cases began to increase in March, mainly occurred during April to October (96.79%,8 551/8 835), and peaked during May to July. The cases were mainly distributed in middle-aged and old farmers, and slight more cases were women. The average case fatality rate was 5.38%, which varied greatly with areas. The case fatality rate tended to increase with age.Conclusion:From 2018 to 2021, the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in China remained stable, but the number of reported cases gradually increased and the distribution showed an expanding trend, to which close attention should be paid.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
3.Relationship between self-disclosure and demoralization syndrome in patients with permanent enterostomy for colorectal cancer
Meng LIU ; Mengfei LI ; Shuyun WANG ; Fuguo YANG ; Dexin CHEN ; Jingzhe LIU
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2024;30(15):2055-2060
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To explore the impact of self-disclosure on demoralization syndrome in patients with permanent enterostomy for colorectal cancer, so as to provide reference for clinical nursing interventions for those patients.Methods:From January to May 2023, convenience sampling was used to select 207 patients with permanent enterostomy for colocrctal cancer of the Wound Ostomy Clinic of Laoshan Campus of the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University as the research subjects. A survey was conducted on patients using the General Information Questionnaire, Distress Disclosure Index, Social Support Rating Scale, and the Demoralization Scale Mandarin Version.Results:Among 207 patients with permanent enterostomy for colorectal cancer, the scores of self-disclosure, social support, and demoralization syndrome were 35.00 (26.00, 47.00) , 32.00 (26.00, 39.00) , and 35.00 (23.00, 47.00) , respectively. A total of 128 patients (61.8%) were in moderate demoralization, and 37 patients (17.9%) were in severe demoralization. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that place of residence, self-care of stoma, self-disclosure, and social support were the influencing factors for demoralization syndrome in patients with permanent enterostomy for colorectal cancer ( P<0.05) . Conclusions:Patients with permanent enterostomy for colorectal cancer have a high overall score of demoralization syndrome, and a high proportion of patients with moderate to severe demoralization. Medical and nursing staff should focus on patients in remote rural areas and those with poor self-care abilities to stomas, develop targeted intervention measures to improve patients' negative emotions, enhance their self-disclosure, and pay attention to strengthening social support to relieve their demoralization syndrome, thereby improving their quality of life.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
4.Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort analysis of the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China
Tian LIU ; Rui YANG ; Dexin RUAN ; Yang WU ; Yeqing TONG ; Hongying CHEN ; Jing ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2024;43(10):790-795
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To learn about the age, period, birth cohort characteristics, and incidence trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) nationwide.Methods:HFRS monitoring data from 2004 to 2018 were collected from the National Public Health Science Data Center (https://www.phsciencedata.cn/). The trend of incidence rate of HFRS was analyzed by joinpoint regression, and the linear trend was estimated by annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis of the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on HFRS cases was conducted, with age, period, and birth cohort used as reference for the 40 - 44 age group, 2011, and 1968, respectively, the RR and 95% CI were calculated. Results:From 2004 to 2018, a total of 190 197 HFRS cases were reported nationwide, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.95/100 000. Among them, the highest incidence rate of HFRS was 1.93/100 000 in 2004. Since 2007, it had continued to fluctuate below 1.00/100 000, ranging from 0.66/100 000 to 0.99/100 000. Joinpoint regression fitting results showed that the overall incidence of HFRS in China was declining (AAPC = - 7.33%, 95% CI: - 8.07% - - 6.58%, P < 0.001); the APCs from 2004 to 2007, 2007 to 2009, and 2012 to 2016 were - 32.00%, - 8.74%, and - 9.02%, respectively, all showed a downward trend( P < 0.05); the APCs from 2009 to 2012 and from 2016 to 2018 were 14.69% and 11.38%, respectively, both showed an upward trend ( P < 0.05). HFRS cases were reported in all age groups, and the reported incidence rate showed a unimodal distribution with age. Among them, the highest incidence rate was in the 50 - 54 age group (1.75/100 000), and the lowest incidence rate was in the 0 - 4 age group (0.03/100 000); the proportion of cases in the age group of 60 years and above increased from 9.75% in 2004 to 25.90% in 2018, showed an increasing trend year by year (χ 2trend = 9 210.90, P<0.001). The analysis results of the BAPC model showed that in the age effect analysis, compared with the reference age group, there was no significant difference in the incidence risk among the age groups of 15 - 79 years old ( P > 0.05), while the incidence risk was lower in the age groups of 14 years old and below, and 80 years old and above ( RR < 1, P < 0.05). In the analysis of period effects, compared with the reference year, the incidence risk was higher from 2004 to 2006 and from 2012 to 2014 ( RR > 1 , P < 0.05), and lower from 2008 to 2010 and from 2017 to 2018 ( RR < 1, P < 0.05); the overall trend was consistent with the descriptive analysis of onset period. In the analysis of birth cohort effect, compared with the reference cohort, the population born between 1920 - 1935 and 1970 - 2018 had lower incidence risk ( RR < 1, P < 0.05); but the risk of disease in the population born after 2003 showed an upward trend. Conclusions:The HFRS epidemic in China has decreased from 2004 to 2018, but the downward trend in recent years is not significant. The incidence risk has increased among people born after 2003. The population aged 60 and above is a key group for further controlling the HFRS epidemic in China.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
5.Social functioning characteristics of children with co occurrence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and oppositional defiant disorder
Chinese Journal of School Health 2023;44(2):191-194
		                        		
		                        			Objective:
		                        			To explore the social functioning characteristics of children with co ocurrence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) for intervention reference.
		                        		
		                        			Methods:
		                        			The Chinese Version of Swanson Nolan and Pelham, Version IV Scale-Parent Form(SNAP-IV), the Chinese Version of Weiss Functional Impairment Scale-Parent(WFIRS-P), and the Questionnaire-Children with Difficulties (QCD) were applied to 192 children with ADHD, 243 children with co occurrence of ADHD and ODD, who firstly visited the Department of Children Psychological Health of Zhuhai Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, and 118 healthy control children from a school in Zhuhai.
		                        		
		                        			Results:
		                        			The scores of attention deficit factor in SNAP-Ⅳ scale of children in three groups were[1.9(1.7, 2.1), 1.8(1.6, 1.9), 1.0(0.6, 1.2)], the scores of hyperactive impulsivity were[1.8(1.4, 2.1), 1.6(1.1, 1.8), 0.7(0.2, 1.0)] the scores of oppositional defiant were[1.6(1.5, 1.9), 1.0(0.8,1.1), 0.8(0.5, 1.0)], the differences were statistically significant( H=268.44, 237.97, 418.66, P <0.01). The dimensions and total scores of the three groups of children s WFIRS-P scale were family[0.8(0.6, 1.1), 0.6(0.3, 0.8), 0.3(0.1, 0.6)]; learning and school[0.8(0.5, 1.1), 0.8(0.5, 1.0), 0.3(0.1, 0.5)]; life skills[1.0(0.7, 1.2), 0.8(0.6, 1.0), 0.6(0.4, 0.8)]; self management [1.0(0.3, 1.0), 0.7(0.3, 1.0), 0.3(0.0, 0.7)]; social activities [0.7(0.4, 1.0), 0.6(0.3, 0.9), 0.3(0.0,  0.4 )]; adventure activities[0.3(0.2, 0.5), 0.2(0.1, 0.4), 0.1(0.0, 0.2)]; the total score[0.8(0.6, 1.0), 0.6(0.5, 0.8), 0.4( 0.2 , 0.6)], the difference between the groups was statistically significant( H=108.82, 122.45, 60.17, 40.58, 96.17, 76.57, 138.30, P <0.01). The difference between the QCD scale scores of children in the three groups was statistically significant[30.0( 24.0 , 37.0), 32.0(27.0, 40.0), 47.0(37.0, 52.3),  H=124.65, P <0.01). Multiple regression analysis showed that attention deficit, and oppositional defiant symptoms were associated with both the total WFIRS-P score and the QCD score of children( R 2= 0.40 , 0.25,  P <0.05).
		                        		
		                        			Conclusion
		                        			Children with co occurrence of ADHD and ODD have more severe deficits in all dimensions of social functioning than children with ADHD, which might be associated with attention deficit and oppositional defiant symptoms.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
6.Comparative study of ultrasound combined with endoscopy and ultrasound combined with X-ray guided PCNL in the treatment of complex renal calculi
Daming WANG ; Demao DING ; Dongdong XIE ; Dexin YU ; Zhiqiang ZHANG ; Zhiqi LIU
Chinese Journal of Urology 2023;44(3):173-179
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To compare the efficacy of ultrasound combined with endoscopy and ultrasound combined with X-ray guided percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PCNL) in the treatment of complex renal calculi.Methods:The clinical data of 119 patients with complex kidney stones treated by ultrasound combined with endoscopy or ultrasound combined with X-ray guided PCNL in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from March 2019 to February 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. According to different guidance methods, they were divided into ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance group and ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group.There was no significant difference in age [(53.9±14.2) years vs. (55.6±13.5) years], gender (male/female: 38/21 vs. 30/30), body mass index [(25.0±3.7) kg/m 2 vs. (24.8±3.8)kg/m 2], stone location (left/right: 34/25 vs. 31/29), maximum diameter of renal stones [(31.9±8.3)mm vs. (33.9±13.5)mm], kidney stones maximum cross-sectional area [(601.5±242.5)mm 2 vs. (632.6±278.9)mm 2], number of renal calices involved (3.5±0.9 vs. 3.6±1.3), S. T.O.N.E. scores (9.4±1.0 vs. 9.7±1.4), Guy's grade(Ⅲ/Ⅳ: 45/14 vs. 41/19), preoperative hemoglobin [(125.2±21.5)g/L vs. (125.6±18.4)g/L], serum creatinine[(89.1±33.8) μmol/L vs. (81.9±27.1) μmol/L], urinary tract infection (43/59 vs. 47/60)and positive urinary bacterial culture (12/59 vs.11/60) between the two groups(all P>0.05). The patients in the ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance group were placed in the modified prone split-leg position. Flexible ureteroscope retrograde into the renal pelvis, combined with ultrasound to determine the best puncture calices. The channels were established and stones were removed under the guidance of ultrasound and endoscopy. In the ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group, the F5 ureteral catheter was placed retrogradely into the operative side ureter under the lithotomy position. Then the patient changed to prone position and the target calices were punctured under the guidance of ultrasound and X-ray. Through anterograde or retrograde injection of contrast medium, the puncture position was determined to enter in the center of the calicean dome, and the channel establishment process and stone removal are monitored. The operative results and postoperative data were recorded. Results:The average operation time in the ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance group was significantly shorter than that in the ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group [(90.2 ± 34.5) min vs. (129.4 ± 43.0) min, P < 0.001]. There was no significant difference in the success rates of initial channel establishment [94.0% (63/67) vs. 87.7% (107/122), P = 0.167], the time of single channel establishment [(7.7 ± 1.9) min vs. (7.7 ± 1.4) min, P =0.765], serum creatinine on the first day after operation[ (89.3±33.6) μmol/L vs. (82.9±27.0) μmol/L, P=0.257] and postoperative hospital stay[(5.3±1.6) d vs.(5.4±1.7) d, P=0.883]. In contrast, patients in ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group had higher stone free rate [93.3% (56/60) vs. 81.4% (48/59), P=0.049] and lower reoperation rate [3.3% (2/60) vs. 15.3% (9/59), P=0.025]. The mean hemoglobin decrease value of ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance group was significantly lower than ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group on the first day after operation [(8.7±6.3) g/L vs. (16.8±6.9) g/L, P<0.001]. The complication rate of ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance group was significantly lower than that of ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance group [5.1% (3/59) vs. 16.7% (10/60), P = 0.043]. Conclusions:Ultrasound combined with endoscopic guidance PCNL does not need to change body position during operation and has fewer puncture channels, thus saving operation time and reducing complications. It is more suitable for patients with isolated kidney or easy bleeding. Ultrasound combined with X-ray guidance is conducive to the establishment of multi-channel, the stone clearance rate is high and the reoperation rate is low, which is suitable for patients with good health and more renal calices involved with stones.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
7.Feasibility study of transurethral en-bloc resection of bladder tumor under electronic flexible cystoscopy combined with adjuvant therapy for bladder-preservation-therapy in T 2 stage bladder cancer
Qi WANG ; Hongliang YU ; Yi WANG ; Jinyou WANG ; Chao YANG ; Xin CHEN ; Zhiqi LIU ; Wei SUN ; Lu FANG ; Dexin YU ; Jie MIN
Chinese Journal of Urology 2023;44(12):901-905
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To investigate the feasibility of combination of en-bloc resection of bladder tumor (ERBT) with the NBI(narrow band imaging) flexible cystoscopy, immunotherapy and chemotherapy in bladder-preserving treatments(called as TMT) for patients with stage T 2 bladder carcinoma. Methods:We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed a series of 16 patients with pT 2N 0M 0 pathologically confirmed. All patients are male with a median age of 63yr(56, 73yr). The American Association of Anesthesiologists scored ≤Ⅱ in 12 cases and Ⅲ in 4 cases. There were 9 cases with smoking history, 5 cases with hypertension, 3 cases with diabetes, and 2 cases with heart disease. The results of preoperative tissue biopsy were all urothelial carcinoma. All patients were taken lithotomy position and performed ERBT with NBI imaging technique and thulium-laser energy platform under general anesthesia. The tumor was brown and the surrounding normal mucosa was cyan in color. The procedure was ensured with a minimal tumor margin of 1cm and minimal rection depth to the deep musculi, and with the acquirement for the en-bloc specimen of which the basal site was marked afterwards, the patients all took a full length of chemoimmunotherapy (four cycles of Tislelizumab combined with Gemcitabine and cisplatin regimens) followed by a secondary ERBT. The perioperative data from sequential operations including complications were comprehensively analyzed for evaluating the therapeutic outcome and safety. All patients received a follow-up to detect efficacy and safety of the treatment with the primary end point of pCR, downgrading rate and objective response rate. Results:All operations were successfully completed. There was no obturator reflex, severe bleeding or grade Ⅱ bladder perforation, only 4 patients got a grade Ⅰ bladder perforation. The postoperative 30-day complication occured in 2 cases(1 pt with hematuresis, 1 pt with bladder irritation). The pathologic complete response rate and tumor downstaging rate were 100%. One patient recurred during a median follow-up of 13.0 months (6, 36 months).Conclusions:The En Bloc Resection of Bladder Tumor with the narrow band imaging (NBI) flexible cystoscopy has several remarkable advantages, including a better intra-operative visual, a lower complication rate and tumor residual. The combination of ERBT with immunotherapy and chemotherapy lead to affirmative curative effect and the feasibility for clinical application is relatively high.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
8.Clinical value of endoscopic biliary drainage for biliary fistula
Dexin CHEN ; Shengxin CHEN ; Lang WU ; Wenjing LIU ; Kaixuan FANG ; Yaqi ZHAI ; Mingyang LI ; Enqiang LINGHU
Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy 2023;40(12):973-978
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of endoscopic biliary drainage for biliary fistula.Methods:Data of consecutive 409 biliary fistula patients who were treated and diagnosed at the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from November 2002 to November 2022 were reviewed, and 53 patients who received endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) drainage were finally included. General information, procedural conditions, clinical outcomes and adverse events were analyzed. The patients were categorized into two groups: the endoscopic retrograde biliary drainage (ERBD) group ( n=46) and the endoscopic nasobiliary drainage (ENBD) group ( n=7). Procedural characteristics, operation outcomes, and operation time were compared between the two groups. Results:There were 36 males and 17 females, with the age of 52.2±12.7 years, among whom 58.5% (31/53) were secondary to cholecystectomy. Clinical success was achieved in 83.0% (44/53) patients, with the operation time of 27.0 (13.5, 33.5) minutes and the treatment session of 1 (1, 2). The time to resolution was 89 (47, 161) days. The success rate of ERCP for low-grade biliary fistula was higher compared with that of high-grade biliary fistula [96.4% (27/28) VS 68.0% (17/25), χ2=7.57, P=0.006]. Bridging drainage achieved higher success rate compared with that of non-bridging drainage [91.7% (33/36) VS 64.7% (11/17), χ2=5.95, P=0.015], while different diameters of stents (≥10 Fr VS <10 Fr) achieved similar success rate [81.8% (27/33) VS 84.6% (11/13), χ2=0.05, P=0.822]. Adverse events occurred in 10 patients (18.9%), including 6 pancreatitis, 2 bleeding, 1 cholangitis and 1 death. Except for 1 death, 9 other adverse events were mild and managed with conservative treatment without interventions. There was no significant difference in clinical success rate [6/7 VS 82.6% (38/46), χ2=0.04, P=0.838] or the median operation time [28.0 min VS 23.0 min, Z=0.38, P=0.774] between ENBD group and ERBD group. Conclusion:Endoscopic biliary drainage is safe and effective for biliary fistula. ENBD and ERBD have comparable clinical efficacy. ERCP for low-grade biliary fistula may achieve a higher success rate, and bridging drainage may facilitate fistula resolution.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
9.Preliminary investigation and risk analysis of the infection with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus and hantavirus in 139 cross-border migrant workers
Hao LI ; Meijun GUO ; Xiaoxia HUANG ; Shanshan DU ; Wei WU ; Aqian LI ; Qin WANG ; Chuan LI ; Tiezhu LIU ; Tingting TIAN ; Lina SUN ; Shiwen WANG ; Mifang LIANG ; Dexin LI ; Jiandong LI
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology 2023;37(1):45-49
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective:To investigate the prevalence of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and hantavirus (HV) specific antibodies among cross-border migrant workers for assessment of the risk of rodents-borne virus infection.Methods:From 2019 to 2020, a survey was conducted on cross border migrant workers engaged in outdoor activities, and serum samples were collected, LCMV specific IgG antibody was detected by an indirect ELISA and Western blot based on recombinant nucleoprotein, and indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) based on recombinant expressed glycoprotein. HV IgG antibody in serum was detected by a commercial indirect IgG ELISA kit and IFA based on hantavirus infected Vero cells.Results:A total of 139 cross-border workers, aged 25~57, were surveyed; 64% (89/139) had working experience in multiple countries, involving 26 countries, including 14 countries in Asia and 12 countries in Africa; 11.51% (16/139) of serum samples were tested positive for LCMV antibodies, and the positive samples were verified by Western blot and IFA. The antibody detection rate was slightly higher than the published infection rate from other similar studies. And, HV antibodies were detected from one serum sample (0.72%, 1/139) by ELISA and IFA. However, it was still uncertain when and where the viral infections were acquired.Conclusions:Through this serological cross-sectional preliminary analysis, the infection status and existing risks of LCMV and HV viruses among cross border migrant workers were revealed, which suggested the necessity of strengthening the prevention and control of rodents borne diseases in outdoor engineering sites.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
10.Application of TBATS in the prediction of mumps incidence
Tian LIU ; Yeqing TONG ; Yinbo LUO ; Jigui HUANG ; Dexin RUAN ; Menglei YAO ; Qingbo HOU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2022;33(2):11-15
		                        		
		                        			
		                        			Objective  To explore the applicability of the TBATS in predicting the incidence of mumps.  Methods  The incidence of mumps of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2017 was used as the demonstration data. The incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province from July to December 2017 was used as test data. The training data from January 2004 to June 2017 were used to train the TBATS and the SARIMA, and predict the value from July to December 2017. The fitted and predicted values were compared with the test data. The MAPE, RMSE, MAE and MER were used to evaluate model fitting and prediction effects.  Results  SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 with drift was the optimal SARIMA. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER fitted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 15.06%, 0.21, 0.29, 13.57% and 21.93%, 0.29, 0.41, 18.73%, respectively. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER predicted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 7.95%, 0.08, 0.11, 7.12% and 15.33%, 0.17, 0.18, 14.93%.  Conclusion  The TBATS has high accuracy in predicting the incidence of mumps and is worthy of popularization and application.
		                        		
		                        		
		                        		
		                        	
            

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