1.Comparison of the prediction effects of LSTM, SARIMA and SARIMAX models on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
ZHANG Xiaoqiao ; ZHANG Xiaodie ; ZHAO Zhenxi ; XIE Pengliu ; DAI Min
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(3):280-284,287
Objective:
To compare the effects of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) , seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) models in predicting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).
Methods:
Monthly incidence data of HFMD in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019 were collected. SARIMA, SARIMAX and LSTM models were established using the monthly incidence of HFMD from 2010 to 2018 to predict the monthly incidence of HFMD from January to December 2019. The prediction performance of the three models was compared using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The optimal prediction model was selected based on the principle of minimizing MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE.
Results:
The HFMD cases were reported every month in Kunming City from 2010 to 2019, with the incidence fluctuating between 188.27/105 and 363.15/105. The disease exhibited a biennial high-incidence bimodal distribution. Among the four evaluation indicators for the training and testing sets, the LSTM model had the smaller values: MSE was 63.182 and 102.745, RMSE was 7.949 and 10.136, MAE was 6.535 and 7.620, and MAPE was 46.726% and 31.138%. The LSTM model performed the better, followed by the SARIMA model, while the SARIMAX model had the relatively poorest performance.
Conclusion
The LSTM model outperforms the SARIMA and SARIMAX models in predicting the incidence of HFMD.
2.Summary of 16-Year Observation of Reflux Esophagitis-Like Symptoms in A Natural Village in A High-Incidence Area of Esophageal Cancer
Junqing LIU ; Lingling LEI ; Yaru FU ; Xin SONG ; Jingjing WANG ; Xueke ZHAO ; Min LIU ; Zongmin FAN ; Fangzhou DAI ; Xuena HAN ; Zhuo YANG ; Kan ZHONG ; Sai YANG ; Qiang ZHANG ; Qide BAO ; Lidong WANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(6):461-465
Objective To investigate the screening results and factors affecting abnormal detection rates among high-risk groups of esophageal cancer and to explore effective intervention measures. Methods We investigated and collected the information on gender, education level, age, marital status, symptoms of reflux esophagitis (heartburn, acid reflux, belching, hiccup, foreign body sensation in the pharynx, and difficulty swallowing), consumption of pickled vegetables, salt use, and esophageal cancer incidence of villagers in a natural village in Wenfeng District, Anyang City, Henan Province. Changes in reflux esophagitis symptoms in the high-incidence area of esophageal cancer before and after 16 years were observed, and the relationship of such changes with esophageal cancer was analyzed. Results In 2008, 711 cases were epidemiologically investigated, including
3.Prospective Study of Disease Occurrence Spectrum in Asymptomatic Residents in Areas with High Incidence of Esophageal Cancer: 16-year Observation of 711 Cases in Natural Population
Qide BAO ; Fangzhou DAI ; Xueke ZHAO ; Jingjing WANG ; Xin SONG ; Zongmin FAN ; Yanfang ZHANG ; Zhuo YANG ; Junfang GUO ; Kan ZHONG ; Qiang ZHANG ; Junqing LIU ; Min LIU ; Lidong WANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2025;52(8):656-660
Objective To understand the disease spectrum of a natural village in an area with high incidence of esophageal cancer to provide a reference for precise prevention and control. Methods From 2008 to 2024, 711 asymptomatic people over the age of 35 years in a natural village with high incidence of esophageal cancer in China were surveyed, and 171 of them were subjected to gastroscopy, biopsy, and pathological examination. All participants were followed up for a long time, and their disease history was recorded. Results A total of 16 years of follow-up were performed, and 703 people were effectively followed up. In 2008, 171 people underwent gastroscopy, and 160 people had biopsy and pathological results in endoscopic screening. By 2024, 76 people had been diagnosed with malignant tumors of 12 different types, and among these people, 45 had esophageal cancer. Conclusion Esophageal cancer remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality from malignant tumors in this region. Biopsy and pathological examination should be strengthened during gastroscopy, and follow-ups and regular check-ups should be given high importance to reduce the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer.
4.A Case of Multidisciplinary Treatment for Deficiency of Adenosine Deaminase 2
Jingyuan ZHANG ; Xiaoqi WU ; Jiayuan DAI ; Xianghong JIN ; Yuze CAO ; Rui LUO ; Hanlin ZHANG ; Tiekuan DU ; Xiaotian CHU ; Peipei CHEN ; Hao QIAN ; Pengguang YAN ; Jin XU ; Min SHEN
JOURNAL OF RARE DISEASES 2025;4(3):316-324
This case report presents a 16-year-old male patient with deficiency of adenosine deaminase 2(DADA2). The patient had a history of Raynaud′s phenomenon with digital ulcers since childhood. As the disease progressed, the patient developed retinal vasculitis, intracranial hemorrhage, skin necrosis, severe malnutrition, refractory hypertension, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Genetic testing revealed compound heterozygous mutations in the
5.Interpretation of specification for service of cancer screening for workers
Hongda CHEN ; Bin LU ; Ying ZHENG ; Peng DU ; Xiao QI ; Kai ZHANG ; Yuying LIU ; Junli WEI ; Donghua WEI ; Jiyong GONG ; Yunchao HUANG ; Zhenya SONG ; Xi CHU ; Dong DONG ; Wenjing ZHENG ; Min DAI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(4):486-489
As the backbone force of China's social and economic construction, the health status of workers is closely related to the nation's productivity and social development. Currently, cancers have become one of the major diseases threatening the health of workers. However, there are still many shortcomings in the cancer screening services for the workers. To standardize cancer screening services for workers, ensure the quality of screening services, and improve the overall screening effectiveness, 19 institutions, including Peking Union Medical College Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, have jointly formulated the Group Standard "Specification for service of cancer screening for workers (T/CHAA 023-2023)". This standard follows the principles of "legality, scientific rigor, advancement, and feasibility" and combines the frontier scientific advances in cancer screening. It clarifies the relevant requirements for service principles, service design, service delivery, service management, service evaluation, and improving worker cancer screening. Implementing this group standard will help connect the common screening needs of workers, employers, and cancer screening service providers, standardize the screening process, improve screening quality, and ultimately increase the early diagnosis rate and survival rate of cancer patients. Consequently, this group standard will help safeguard workers' health rights and interests, ensure the labor force resources, promote the comprehensive coordinated and sustainable development of society, and contribute to realizing the "Healthy China 2030" strategic policy.
6.Disease burden and three-grade prevention of cancer in China
Chenyu LUO ; Yueyang ZHOU ; Na LI ; Jiahui LUO ; Yuhan ZHANG ; Bin LU ; Hongda CHEN ; Min DAI
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(5):621-625
Cancer is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Due to population aging, lifestyle variation and other factors, the morbidity and mortality of cancer continue to rise in China, resulting in a serious public health problem threating people's health. In response to this increasingly serious problem, tremendous efforts have been made in China, including the development of a series of policies and measures for specific needs of cancer prevention and treatment. Currently, China's strategy to reduce the disease burden of cancer mainly focuses on primary and secondary prevention. This paper summarizes the current status of disease burden of cancer and the performance of three-grade cancer prevention in China.
7.Exploration of the Clinical Postdoctoral Teaching Model in the Department of Rare Diseases
Jiayuan DAI ; Jin XU ; Jing XIE ; Min SHEN ; Shuyang ZHANG
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2024;15(5):1224-1229
The clinical medicine postdoctoral training program embodies a pioneering initiative in China's pursuit of excellence in medical education in the contemporary era. The establishment of the Department of Rare Diseases at Peking Union Medical College Hospital in 2023 signifies a momentous milestone, making it the nation's inaugural clinical department exclusively dedicated to diagnosis and treatment of patients with rare diseases. Aligned with the
8.Research progress on dietary patterns and cancer etiology
Jiahui LUO ; Chenyu LUO ; Yuhan ZHANG ; Bin LU ; Na LI ; Yueyang ZHOU ; Kai SONG ; Dong WU ; Min DAI ; Hongda CHEN
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;58(3):370-380
In recent years, the incidence of cancer in China has been increasing steadily. Advancing primary prevention measures for cancers could be an effective strategy to curb this trend. Diet has been considered a modifiable and shared risk factor for various cancers. Studying dietary patterns, with consideration of the interactions between foods and nutrients, has a practical implication for cancer prevention. This study provided an overview of dietary pattern extraction methods, summarized the research findings on the association between dietary patterns and cancers in the digestive system, respiratory system, and genitourinary system, and elucidated the potential mechanisms underlying these associations, in order to provide scientific references for future research in this field.
9.Burden of six major types of digestive system cancers globally and in China
Yueyang ZHOU ; Kai SONG ; Yuqing CHEN ; Yuelun ZHANG ; Min DAI ; Dong WU ; Hongda CHEN
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(16):1957-1964
Background::Digestive system cancers constitute a significant number of cancer cases, but their burden is not uniform. As Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022 has recently updated its estimates of cancer burden, we aimed to investigate the burden of six major digestive system cancers both worldwide and in China, along with geographical and temporal variations in cancer-specific incidence and mortality.Methods::We extracted data on primary cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, pancreas, and gallbladder from the GLOBOCAN database for 2022. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated and stratified by sex, country, region, and human development index (HDI). We used the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects (United Nations) to obtain demographic data for various age groups in China from 1988 to 2012 and used the joinpoint model and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze cancer incidence trends in China.Results::In 2022, the estimated global incidence of digestive system cancers reached 4,905,882, with an estimated 3,324,774 cancer-related deaths. Colorectal cancer was most prevalent in terms of incidence and mortality. There was a significant correlation between the burden of gastrointestinal cancers and country HDI. From 1988 to 2012, the incidence of esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers declined in China, whereas colorectal and pancreatic cancer incidences continued to increase. By 2050, colorectal and liver cancers are projected to remain the leading cancer types in China in terms of incidence and mortality, respectively.Conclusions::Digestive system cancers remain a significant public health challenge globally and in China. Although progress has been made in the prevention and control of some cancers, the burden of digestive system cancers persists. The implementation of tertiary prevention strategies must be intensified to reduce the incidence and mortality of digestive system cancers, mitigating their impact on public health.
10.Design of medical risk comprehensive assessment system based on big data
Limei JIANG ; Feng LIU ; Qian DU ; Liyang DAI ; Yang ZHANG ; Min YAN
Chongqing Medicine 2024;53(17):2672-2676
Objective To construct the medical risk comprehensive assessment system based on big data,and to evaluate its consistency and efficiency.Methods Aiming at the current situation of risk assessment of inpatients,based on the means of big data,the medical natural language processing was used to design a medi-cal risk comprehensive assessment system.The system can automatically capture various data of patients,au-tomatically generate the scores by data mining and machine learning technology and send the risk data to med-ical staff,so as to realize the automation and intellectualization.The randomized controlled analysis was used to conduct the manual scoring and machine scoring for included the score scale.The visual risk matrix diagram was automatically generated by comparing the scoring.Results The Kappa values of the scoring system in the included study of the system were as follows:the Kappa value in Caprini scale(surgery)and Padua scale(internal medicine)was 1.00,NNIS Kappa value was 1.00,Nomogram Kappa value was 0.87,Kappa value in the Morse assessment scale/Hendrich model was 0.83,Braden Kappa value was 0.80,ASA 2023 Kappa was 1.00 and NRS 2002 Kappa value was 0.90.The taking time in the machine scoring all were shorter than those in the manual scoring,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion The risk matrix graph constructed by this system could sharply increase the evaluation efficiency and accuracy,which not only provide the accuracy diagnosis and treatment regimen,but also shorten the hospitalization duration and reduce the medical costs.


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