1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Effect of downregulating proline-rich protein 11 expression on drug resistance of esophageal cancer drug resistant cell EC9706/DDP and its mechanism
Chunyan KANG ; Xiuzhi ZHANG ; Huicong ZHOU ; Jie CHEN
Journal of Jilin University(Medicine Edition) 2024;50(1):113-119
Objective:To discuss the effect of downregulating the proline-rich protein 11(PRR11)expression on drug resistance of the esophageal cancer drug resistant cells,and to clarify the related mechanism.Methods:The drug resistant cells EC9706/cisplatin(DDP)were established by incrementally stimulating the human esophageal cancer EC9706 cells with the increasing concentrations of DDP.The drug sensitivity of the EC9706/DDP cells was detected by MTT assay;the expression levels of PRR11 mRNA and protein in the EC9706/DDP cells and their parent EC9706 cells were detected by real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR(RT-qPCR)and Western blotting methods.The EC9706/DDP cells were divided into control group,sh-NC group(infected with sh-NC),sh-PRR11 group(infected with sh-PRR11),sh-NC+DDP group(infected with sh-NC and treated with 4 mg·L-1 DDP),and sh-PRR11+DDP group(infected with sh-PRR11 and treated with 4 mg·L-1 DDP).The expression levels of PRR11 mRNA in the cells in various groups were detected by RT-qPCR method;the expression levels of PRR11,phosphoinositide 3-kinase(PI3K)p110α,protein kinase B(AKT),phosphorylated AKT(p-AKT),P-glycoprotein(P-gp),and multidrug resistance-associated protein 1(MRP1)proteins in the cells in various groups were detected by Western blotting method;the apoptotic rates of the cells in various groups were detected by flow cytometry.Results:The DDP-resistant cell line EC9706/DDP was successfully obtained,and the drug resistance index was 7.23±0.86.Compared with the EC9706 cells,the expression levels of PRR11 mRNA and protein in the EC9706/DDP cells were increased(P<0.05).Compared with control and sh-NC groups,the expression levels of PRR11 mRNA and protein in the cells in sh-PRR11 group were decreased(P<0.05),and the 50%inhibitory concentration(IC50)of DDP was decreased(P<0.05).Compared with sh-NC group,the expression levels of PI3K p110α,p-AKT,P-gp,and MRP1 proteins in the cells in sh-NC+DDP and sh-PRR11 groups were decreased(P<0.05),and the apoptotic rate of the cells was increased(P<0.05).Compared with sh-NC+DDP group and sh-PRR11 group,the expression levels of PI3K p110α,p-AKT,P-gp,and MRP1 proteins in the cells in sh-PRR11+ DDP group were increased(P<0.05),and the apoptotic rate of the cells was increased(P<0.05).Conclusion:Downregulating the expression of PRR11 gene in the drug resistant EC9706/DDP cells can inhibit the expressions of drug resistance-related proteins,reverse the resistance to DDP,and induce the apoptosis;its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of activation of the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.
3.Relationship between serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels and severity of the illness and clinical outcome in patients with active ulcerative colitis
Jinting WANG ; Chunyan XU ; Jie LIU ; Kaifeng SUN ; Zhen ZHOU
International Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2024;45(4):441-446
Objective To investigate the relationship between serum tumor necrosis factor α stimulated gene 6(TSG-6)and collagen ⅩⅥ(col-16)levels and severity of the illness and clinical outcome in patients with active ulcerative colitis(UC).Methods A total of 79 patients with active UC admitted to the department of gastroenterology in the hospital from January 2020 to January 2023 were selected as the active UC group,56 patients with UC in remission who were similar in gender and age to the active UC group were selected as the remission UC group,and 60 healthy subjects who underwent physical examination in the hospital during the same period were selected as the control group.Patients with active UC were divided into mild group(n=25),moderate group(n=34)and severe group(n=20)according to the modified Mayo score.Patients with active UC were divided into good prognosis group(n=58)and poor prognosis group(n=21)according to colonoscopy results after 2 months of treatment.Serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in each group were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to analyze the relation-ship between serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels and severity of the illness,and the influence of serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels on clinical outcome was analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression.Receiver operating charac-teristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of serum TSG-6 and col-16 for poor prognosis in patients with active UC.Results The serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in active UC group and remission UC group were higher than those in control group,and the serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in active UC group were higher than those in remission UC group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in severe group and moderate group were higher than those in mild group,and serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in severe group were higher than those in moderate group,with statistical significance(P<0.05).By Spearman rank correlation analysis,serum TSG-6 and col-16 in active UC patients were positively correlated with modified Mayo scores(rs=0.695、0.627,P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that compared with<159.32 ng/mL,patients with serum TSG-6 interquartile interval of 289.15-413.55 ng/mL and>413.55 ng/mL had a higher risk of poor prognosis.ROC curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve of TG-6 and col-16 in predicting poor prognosis was 0.776 and 0.764,respective-ly.The predictive value of serum TG-6 and col-16 combined detection was better than that of single index(Z=3.392,4.218,P<0.05).Conclusion The serum TSG-6 and col-16 levels in active UC patients are ab-normally elevated,which is closely related to severity of the illness and clinical outcome.The levels of serum TSG-6 and col-16 can be used as potential biochemical indicators to judge the disease and predict the clinical outcome.
4.Effectiveness of rhomboid intercostal and sub-serratus plane block in improving early recovery quality after thoracoscopic radical surgery for lung cancer
Qian HAO ; Hongyu DAI ; Chunyan LI ; Hongmei ZHOU ; Zhipeng ZHU
China Modern Doctor 2024;62(8):25-29
Objective Verify the improvement effect of rhomboid intercostal and sub-serratus plane block on the quality of early postoperative recovery in patients undergoing thoracoscopic radical resection of lung cancer;Comparison of the differences in the effect of regional block at different timing on improving the quality of early postoperative recovery.Methods A total of 75 patients,aged 18 to 75 years,with ASA gradeⅠ-Ⅱ,who were scheduled to undergo thoracoscopic radical resection of lung cancer from January 2022 to January 2023 were selected.Randomly divided into three groups:blank control group(Group C),preoperative block group(PR group),and postoperative block group(PO group).The PR group and the PO group received ultrasound guided rhomboid intercostal and sub-serratus plane block in the preoperative anesthesia preparation room and postoperative anesthesia recovery room,respectively,with a dosage of 0.375%ropivacaine 30ml.Evaluate the postoperative recovery quality of patients at 24 and 48 hours using the postoperative recovery quality rating scale(QoR-40)scoring scale.Record numeric rating scale(NRS)pain scores in resting and active states at 0.5h,1h,2h,4h,8h,12h,24h,and 48h after surgery.Record the consumption of opioid drugs during and after surgery,the effective number of postoperative patient-controlled intravenous analgesia(PCIA)compressions,and the incidence of nausea and vomiting.Results Compared with Group C,the consumption of opioids during surgery in the PR group was significantly reduced.The QoR-40 score at 24 hours after surgery was significantly higher in the PR and PO groups.Significant reduction in NRS scores between 1-8 hours of rest and 1-12 hours of activity after surgery,and the effective times of PCIA compressions and opioid consumption were significantly reduced(P<0.05).Compared with the PR group,the PO group consumed more opioids during surgery and had a higher NRS score at 0.5 hours after surgery(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in postoperative QoR-40 scores,PCIA effective compressions,and opioid consumption;There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting among the three groups.Conclusion Rhomboid intercostal and sub-serratus plane block can improve the early recovery quality of patients undergoing thoracoscopic radical resection of lung cancer,reduce the postoperative pain level of patients,and reduce the amount of opioids used in perioperative period,and its effectiveness has nothing to do with the blocking time.
5.Effect of interindividual biological characteristics and blood collection time on troponin T concentrations
Yiting LIN ; Yan ZHOU ; Jiaye ZHOU ; Chunyan ZHANG ; Beili WANG ; Baishen PAN ; Wei GUO
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2024;47(3):259-263
Objective:To investigate the correlation between gender, age, blood collection time, season and changes in cTnT concentration.Methods:In this study, 3548 patients (non-cardiovascular diseases) in Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University were selected from 1 January to 31 December 2019. The basic data of the patients were collected, including gender, age, time of blood collection, medical history, clinical diagnosis, and results of cTnT testing. 1 840 males and 1 708 females were finally enrolled, with an age distribution of 65 (53, 75) years. The distribution of the data was assessed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, where non-normally distributed data were expressed as M( Q1, Q3). The Mann-Whitney U-test was used to compare cTnT concentrations between men and women, and to analyse the influence of gender on cTnT results. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare cTnT levels between gender groups, to analyse the correlation between different times of blood collection, seasons, and other factors and cTnT concentrations. Result:cTnT concentrations increased with age in both males and females over the age of 60 years. cTnT levels were highest in individuals over the age of 90 years (0.028 ng/ml in males and 0.018 ng/ml in females). cTnT levels were higher in males (0.012 ng/ml) than in females (0.009 ng/ml) in all age groups ( H=6.340, P<0.01). The concentrations of cTnT varied at different time points of blood collection. In both males and females, cTnT concentrations reached a maximum at 8:00 and 13:00 (0.013 ng/ml and 0.012 ng/ml, respectively). Analysis of the physiological effect of season on cTnT secretion showed that cTnT levels were generally higher in spring and winter(0.012 ng/ml) than in summer and autumn(0.010 ng/ml). Conclusions:cTnT concentration is influenced by gender, age, time of blood collection and season. When analysing cTnT results in clinical practice, the gender and age of the individual should be taken into account, as well as the time point of blood collection and seasonal factors.
6.Single-cell transcriptomic sequencing coupled with Mendelian randomization analysis elucidates the pivotal role of CTSC in chronic rhinosinusitis
Shican ZHOU ; Ju LAI ; Kai FAN ; Jingwen LI ; Xiayue XU ; Chunyan YAO ; Bojin LONG ; Chuanliang ZHAO ; Na CHE ; Yawen GAO ; Shaoqing YU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2024;59(6):551-559
Objective:To investigate the molecular mechanisms of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS), to identify key cell subgroups and genes, to construct effective diagnostic models, and to screen for potential therapeutic drugs.Methods:Key cell subgroups in CRS were identified through single-cell transcriptomic sequencing data. Essential genes associated with CRS were selected and diagnostic models were constructed by hdWGCNA (high dimensional weighted gene co-expression network analysis) and various machine learning algorithms. Causal inference analysis was performed using Mendelian randomization and colocalization analysis. Potential therapeutic drugs were identified using molecular docking technology, and the results of bioinformatics analysis were validated by immunofluorescence staining. Graphpad Prism, R, Python, and Adobe Illustrator software were used for data and image processing.Results:An increased proportion of basal and suprabasal cells was observed in CRS, especially in eosinophilic CRS with nasal polyps (ECRSwNP), with P=0.001. hdWGCNA revealed that the "yellow module" was closely related to basal and suprabasal cells in CRS. Univariate logistic regression and LASSO algorithm selected 13 key genes ( CTSC, LAMB3, CYP2S1, TRPV4, ARHGAP21, PTHLH, CDH26, MRPS6, TENM4, FAM110C, NCKAP5, SAMD3, and PTCHD4). Based on these 13 genes, an effective CRS diagnostic model was developed using various machine learning algorithms (AUC=0.958). Mendelian randomization analysis indicated a causal relationship between CTSC and CRS (inverse variance weighted: OR=1.06, P=0.006), and colocalization analysis confirmed shared genetic variants between CTSC and CRS (PPH4/PPH3>2). Molecular docking results showed that acetaminophen binded well with CTSC (binding energy:-5.638 kcal/mol). Immunofluorescence staining experiments indicated an increase in CTSC +cells in CRS. Conclusion:This study integrates various bioinformatics methods to identify key cell types and genes in CRS, constructs an effective diagnostic model, underscores the critical role of the CTSC gene in CRS pathogenesis, and provides new targets for the treatment of CRS.
7.Epidemic characteristics and trend analysis of major injuries deaths among children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021
Xiaolin WEI ; Wencong DU ; Rong WANG ; Jinyi ZHOU ; Hao YU ; Yan LU ; Linchi WANG ; Chunyan HUANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2024;45(4):536-541
Objective:To understand the situation and epidemic characteristics of injury deaths among children aged 5 to 24 years in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2021 and the trend of annual changes.Methods:The main injury mortality data of children and adolescents was collected, and the crude and standardized mortality rates of road traffic accidents, drowning, suicide, and accidental falls among children and adolescents over a decade and the annual average percentage of change (AAPC) were calculated. The main injury mortality characteristics and trends of children and adolescents of different age groups and genders were analyzed.Results:The total number of injury deaths among 5 to 24 adolescents in Jiangsu Province was 16 052, with a standardized mortality rate of 9.58/100 000. There was no significant trend in the overall standardized mortality rate of injuries (AAPC=-3.450%, P=0.055). The standardized mortality rate of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents showed a decreasing trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=-9.406%, P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend over the past decade, with statistical significance (AAPC=9.000%, P=0.001). The overall injury mortality rate showed an upward trend with age. Suicide rates in males and females were on the rise and both have statistical significance (AAPC=9.420% and AAPC=9.607%, both P<0.05). The standardized mortality rates of female traffic accidents, drowning, and male traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and were statistically significant (AAPC for female traffic accidents=-7.364%, AAPC for female drowning=-5.352%, and AAPC for male traffic accidents=-10.242%, all P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate of urban and rural traffic accidents showed a decreasing trend and was statistically significant(AAPC=-7.899% and AAPC=-9.421%, both P<0.001). The standardized suicide mortality rate showed an upward trend and statistical significance (AAPC=11.009% and AAPC=7.528%, both P<0.05). Conclusions:The overall injury situation of children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province improved in the past decade from 2012 to 2021, but the suicide mortality rate was on the rise. It is necessary to focus on the mental health issues of this age group and to strengthen the prevention and control of suicide among children and adolescents, in Jiangsu.
8.Association between dietary habits and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai
YIN Xiaoya, ZHAI Yani, YUAN Linlin, YAN Qiong, ZHOU Xinyi, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(8):1140-1143
Objective:
To explore the association between dietary behaviors and sleep duration among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide reference for interventions targeting insufficient sleep.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select a sample of 10-17yearold middle school students for monitoring their healthrisk behaviors. A total of 5 538 valid questionnaires were collected. The survey included items such as daily sleep duration, weekly consumption of sugary beverages, freshly squeezed fruit juice, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, fried foods, milk and yogurt, breakfast habits, and frequency of eating outside. Statistical analysis was conducted using Chisquare test, Wilcoxon ranksum test, and multivariable Logistic regression model.
Results:
About 73.7% of middle school students reported insufficient sleep in Shanghai. There was a positive correlation between the average daily consumption of fresh fruits and breakfast consumption with sleep duration. In other words, a higher frequency of consuming fresh fruits (OR=1.29) and eating breakfast (OR=1.07) were associated with a higher likelihood of sufficient sleep. Conversely, there was a negative correlation between the frequency of consuming desserts (OR=0.78) and fried foods (OR=0.88) and sleep duration (P<0.05).
Conclusions
Increasing the consumption of fresh fruits and maintaining regular breakfast habits while reducing the intake of fried foods can contribute to achieving sufficient sleep among middle school students. When implementing interventions to improve sleep among middle school students, promoting healthy and balanced diets can be considered as one of the intervention strategies.
9.Analysis of bullying prevalence and associated factors among middle school students in Shanghai
LI Shuman, ZHOU Xinyi, YAN Qiong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHAI Yani, LUO Chunyan, SUN Lijing
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(11):1555-1559
Objective:
To explore the current status and associated factors of bullying behavior among middle school students in Shanghai, so as to provide a reference basis for carrying out bullying intervention work.
Methods:
From May to June 2021, a stratified cluster sampling method was used to select 19 000 middle school students from 63 schools in 16 districts of Shanghai, and the Shanghai Youth Health Risk Behavior Survey Questionnaire was used to conduct an anonymous questionnaire survey of enrolled students. Chi square test and binary Logistic regression analysis were employed to investigate the associated factors of bullying among middle school students.
Results:
The prevalence of bullying behaviors in Shanghai was 15.5%, with males and junior high school students exhibiting the higher reporting rate(19.5%,17.2%). And malicious teasing or name calling had the highest reported rate at 9.4%. The results of binary Logistic regression analysis showed that fighting ( OR =5.02), attempting to smoke ( OR =3.22), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.50) and getting drunk( OR =1.72) were positively associated with bullying behavior among middle school students. Fighting ( OR =3.83-8.97), attempting to smoke ( OR =2.92-5.52), having a feeling of sadness and hopelessness ( OR =2.40-4.34), and getting drunk ( OR =1.66-2.34) were positively correlated with 6 forms of bullying (malicious teasing or name calling, intentionally damaging someone else s belongings, deliberately excluding someone from activities or isolating someone, threatening or intimidating others, hitting, kicking, or pushing someone, and verbally harassing or attacking someone online) ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Bullying behavior of middle school students in Shanghai primarily presents as verbal harassment. In the future, greater attention should be directed towards bullies, and it should recognize potential hazards promptly and implement precise intervention measures.
10.Three cases of occupational chronic chloropropene poisoning
Yuwen CHEN ; Xin ZHOU ; Jie LIU ; Chunyan MIN ; Yulin KONG
Chinese Journal of Industrial Hygiene and Occupational Diseases 2024;42(8):602-604
Chronic chloropropene poisoning is a disease mainly caused by peripheral nerve damage due to close contact with chloropropene in industrial production, its clinical manifestations include varying degrees of sensory, motor, or tendon reflex disorders in the distal limbs, and neuromyography can show neurogenic damage. This article analyzed and summarized the clinical characteristics, diagnosis and treatment methods of three patients with occupational chronic chloropropene poisoning, in order to enhance the clinical understanding of occupational chronic chloropropene poisoning and provide reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment.


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