Change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle and its application in the number of outpatients analysis
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20221024-00354
- VernacularTitle:基于似然比原理下正态分布的变点分析方法及其在就诊人次分析中的应用
- Author:
Chunyang KANG
1
;
Haiyan CHEN
;
Wangtao LI
;
Lifang WEN
;
Feilong ZHOU
Author Information
1. 深圳市罗湖医院集团，深圳 518001
- Keywords:
Change point analysis;
Likelihood ratio;
Normal distribution;
Number of outpatients
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2023;42(3):230-233
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:The authors introduced the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle, analyzed the number of outpatients in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, to provide scientific basis for rational allocation of health resources.Methods:The authors collected totally 636 number of outpatients' data from 8: 00 to 12: 00 a.m. at 48 time windows at 5 minutes intervals in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, and analyzed it with single change point analysis of simultaneous change of mean and variance, and discussed when the change point occurred.Results:The average number of outpatient was 13.250 0 for every time window, the change point occurred at 8: 50, the probability was 0.000 025, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8: 00 to 8: 50 was 7.000 0, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8: 50 to 12: 00 was 14.897 4, and the ratio of number of outpatients before and after the change point occurred was 1∶2.Conclusion:In the case of no need to determine the base period or compare the data, the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the principle of likelihood ratio provides a new way of statistical analysis and statistical monitoring for the rational allocation of health resources based on the number of patients.
