Application of the moving epidemic method in evaluating the prevalence of non-typhoid Salmonella in Jiangsu Province
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2022.05.003
- VernacularTitle:移动流行区间法在评估江苏省非伤寒沙门氏菌流行强度中的应用研究
- Author:
Tian QIU
1
;
Wen-dong MA
2
;
Kai MA
3
;
Yi-jing ZHOU
3
;
Xiang HUO
2
Author Information
1. Nanjing Medical University , Nanjing , Jiangsu 211166 , China
2. Nanjing Medical University , Nanjing , Jiangsu 211166 , China;Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing , Jiangsu 210009 , China
3. Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing , Jiangsu 210009 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Non-typhoid Salmonella;
Moving epidemic methodV;
Epidemic intensity;
Epidemic threshold
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2022;33(5):13-17
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Non-typhoid Salmonella is the main pathogen of foodborne diseases, and its prevalence has obvious seasonal characteristics. The detection of non-typhoid Salmonella usually increases when the temperature is high. However, there are significant differences in the duration, peak time and intensity of the epidemic of non-typhoid Salmonella in different years. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an evaluation method for the epidemic threshold and epidemic intensity of non-typhoid Salmonella to serve monitoring and early warning. Methods The data of non-typhoid Salmonella cases reported in the foodborne disease surveillance system of Jiangsu Province from January 2015 to December 2019 were collected. The moving epidemic method (MEM) was used to calculate the weekly epidemic threshold of non-typhoid Salmonella cases in Jiangsu Province using the surveillance data from 2015 to 2018, and to evaluate the epidemic intensity of non-typhoid Salmonella in 2019. Results The parameter δ was selected as 2.8, and the optimal MEM model was established. The weekly thresholds of non-typhoid Salmonella cases in Jiangsu Province were 3.53 at the beginning of the epidemic and 5.44 at the end of the epidemic, while the weekly thresholds were 12.58 for the epidemic week with moderate epidemic intensity, and 21.63 and 27.48 for the epidemic periods with high and very high epidemic intensity, respectively. The combined sensitivity and specificity of the model during the study period were 0.936 and 0.725, respectively. Conclusion Using MEM method to establish the epidemic threshold of non-typhoid Salmonella in Jiangsu Province has good sensitivity and acceptable specificity.
