Trend and prediction of hepatitis C cases in children aged 14 years old and younger in Henan province, 2005-2020.
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210913-00729
- VernacularTitle:河南省2005-2020年14岁及以下儿童丙型肝炎疫情趋势及流行预测分析
- Author:
Jie LI
1
;
Ning LI
1
;
Guo Long ZHANG
1
;
Dong Yang ZHAO
1
;
Yang LIU
1
Author Information
1. Institute for Prevention and Control of STD/AIDS, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China.
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- MeSH:
Adolescent;
Child;
China/epidemiology*;
Hepacivirus;
Hepatitis C/epidemiology*;
Humans;
Incidence;
Time Factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2022;43(3):336-342
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective: To explore the time series characteristics of hepatitis C cases in children aged ≤14 years old in Henan and predict their epidemic situation with effective model. Methods: Hepatitis C reported data among children aged ≤14 years old in Henan from 2005 to 2020 were collected from China information system for diseases control and prevention. Descriptive and time series analyses were used to demonstrate characteristics of time trend, decomposition methods were used to show the seasonality by using seasonal indices and the long-term trend by using a linear regression model. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established. Results: From 2005 to 2020, a total of 5 355 hepatitis C cases in children were reported in Henan, the seasonal index range of the hepatitis C was lower than 1, and no obvious seasonality characteristics was observed. The average of monthly incidence of 2005-2011 showed increase trend (0.351 case/month), and the incidence of 2012-2020 decreased (-0.474 case/month). The predicted reported case number of hepatitis C in children in Henan from January 2005 to December 2020 fitted by ARIMA model was consistent with the actual number, the RMSE of the number of reported cases in the current year and the existing number of children cases was 10.240, 10.558, the MAPE was 35.566, 0.659, and the MAE was 6.688, 7.156, respectively. Conclusion: Time series analysis on surveillance data is useful for the better understanding of the epidemic situation of hepatitis C in children aged ≤14 years. ARIMA model can be used in the short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of the incidence of hepatitis C in children in Henan.
