Predicting fall related injury risk of patients in hospital
10.3760/cma.j.cn211501-20200828-03701
- VernacularTitle:院内跌倒伤害预测模型构建及列线图开发
- Author:
Shuangyan XU
1
;
Minqi YAO
;
Xin HUANG
;
Xiuqin FENG
;
Jianping SONG
;
Jie XU
Author Information
1. 浙江大学医学院附属第二医院护理部，杭州 310000
- Keywords:
Fall;
Injury;
Inpatient;
Predictive model;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2021;37(19):1468-1472
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To develop and internally validate a fall related injury risk nomogram in of patients in Patients in hospital.Methods:Patients who fall during the hospital stay from a grade-three general hospital of Zhejiang province were recruited. Data were collected from January 2014 to December 2019. Data was collected after patients fall in hospital, including age, sex, and 18 other predictive factors. The LASSO regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis were applied to build a predicting model. Discrimination and calibration of the predicting model were assessed using the C-index and calibration plot. Internal validation was assessed using the bootstrapping validation.Results:Of the 243 patients included in the study, 70 patients had fall related injury. The fall related injury probability was 28.81%. Predictors contained in the prediction nomogram included age≥60, dysfunction, combined utilization of special drugs, no-escort, hypocalcemia. The model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.823 (95% confidence interval 0.756-0.875) and good calibration. High C-index value of 0.803 could still be reached in the interval validation.Conclusion:This fall related injury risk nomogram in of patients in Patients in hospital incorporating the age≥60, dysfunction, combined utilization of special drugs, no-escort, hypocalcemia could be conveniently used to predict fall related injury risk of patients in hospital.
