Development and Validation of the Korean Diabetes Risk Score: A 10-Year National Cohort Study.
- Author:
Kyoung Hwa HA
1
;
Yong Ho LEE
;
Sun Ok SONG
;
Jae Woo LEE
;
Dong Wook KIM
;
Kyung Hee CHO
;
Dae Jung KIM
Author Information
- Publication Type:Original Article
- Keywords: Diabetes mellitus; Risk assessment; Risk factors; Korea
- MeSH: Adult; Blood Pressure; Body Mass Index; Calibration; Cholesterol; Cohort Studies*; Dataset; Diabetes Mellitus; Discrimination (Psychology); Epidemiology; Fasting; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Genome; Glucose; Humans; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors; Korea; Male; Mass Screening; Motor Activity; National Health Programs; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Risk Management; Smoke; Smoking; Transferases
- From:Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2018;42(5):402-414
- CountryRepublic of Korea
- Language:English
- Abstract: BACKGROUND: A diabetes risk score in Korean adults was developed and validated. METHODS: This study used the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS) of 359,349 people without diabetes at baseline to derive an equation for predicting the risk of developing diabetes, using Cox proportional hazards regression models. External validation was conducted using data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Calibration and discrimination analyses were performed separately for men and women in the development and validation datasets. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.8 years, 37,678 cases (event rate=10.4 per 1,000 person-years) of diabetes were identified in the development cohort. The risk score included age, family history of diabetes, alcohol intake (only in men), smoking status, physical activity, use of antihypertensive therapy, use of statin therapy, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting glucose, and γ glutamyl transferase (only in women). The C-statistics for the models for risk at 10 years were 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70 to 0.73) for the men and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78) for the women in the development dataset. In the validation dataset, the C-statistics were 0.63 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.73) for men and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.76) for women. CONCLUSION: The Korean Diabetes Risk Score may identify people at high risk of developing diabetes and may be an effective tool for delaying or preventing the onset of condition as risk management strategies involving modifiable risk factors can be recommended to those identified as at high risk.
