Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and ARIMA-SVM model prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City in 2018- 2023
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.06.018
- VernacularTitle:2018—2023年淄博市手足口病时空聚集性分析及ARIMA-SVM模型预测
- Author:
Ming FENG
1
;
Ling ZHANG
1
;
Tao SUN
1
;
Haixia CAO
1
;
Haining ZHU
1
;
Ling WANG
1
Author Information
1. Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong 255026, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hand-foot-mouth disease;
Spatiotemporal aggregation;
ARIMA;
Prediction
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(6):76-80
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Zibo City, to explore the key incidence areas, and to find a suitable prediction model, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of HFMD in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 were analyzed by using SaTScan 10.0.2 software and ArcGIS 10.7 software. A combination model of ARIMA and SVM was established, and the prediction results were verified and compared. Results Spatial clustering analysis showed that there was spatial clustering of the incidence of HFMD in various townships of Zibo City from 2020 to 2022. The high-high clustering areas and Getis-Ord hot spot areas were mainly concentrated in some main urban areas of Zhangdian District, Zichuan District, and Huantai County. A total of 2-5 aggregation areas were detected by spatiotemporal scanning analysis. The first-type aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in the towns of Zhangdian District, Huantai County, Linzi District, Zhoucun District and Gaoxin District. The aggregation months were July, August, September and November. The model prediction results showed that the ARIMA-SVM combined model was more accurate than the traditional ARIMA model. Conclusion There is a spatiotemporal clustering of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City. The ARIMA-SVM combined model can be used to predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zibo City, and to strengthen health education and disease monitoring in high-risk areas and populations during the epidemic months.
