Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis of varicella in Lu'an City in 2005 - 2023
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.06.014
- VernacularTitle:2005—2023年六安市水痘流行特征与时空聚集性分析
- Author:
Huan ZHANG
1
;
Bingxin MA
2
;
Yafei CHEN
1
;
Yao WANG
1
;
Fan PAN
1
;
Lei ZHANG
3
;
Kai CHENG
1
;
Ling SHAO
2
;
Wei QIN
4
Author Information
1. Lu'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lu'an, Anhui 237000, China
2. School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei , Anhui 230032, China
3. Department of Information Technology, Anhui Vocational College of Defense Technology, Lu'an , Anhui 237000, China
4. Lu'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lu'an, Anhui 237000, China;School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei , Anhui 230032, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Varicella;
Epidemics;
Spatiotemporal scan analysis;
Spatial autocorrelation analysis
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(6):58-61
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of varicella in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for optimizing varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on varicella cases were collected through the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Descriptive epidemiology, temporal trend analysis, seasonal analysis, spatiotemporal clustering analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted using QGIS, JoinPoint, SaTScan and GeoDa software. Results The average annual reported incidence rate of varicella in Lu'an City from 2005 to 2023 was 34.55/100,000, showing a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. The peak incidence occurred from October to January of the following year (RR=1.97, LLR=1743.95, P=0.001). Students aged 0 to 19 was the primary affected group. Spatiotemporal scan analysis revealed four types of spatiotemporal clusters, with the cluster in Jin'an District from October 2017 to December 2023 being particularly prominent (RR=2.87，LLR=1734.15，P<0.001). Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated significant clustering of varicella cases in the main urban area (Moran's I=0.216，Z=4.786，P=0.003). Conclusion The incidence of varicella in Lu'an City exhibits distinct seasonal and spatial clustering, and schools and kindergartens in the main urban area are the key to varicella prevention and control. It is necessary to enhance the monitoring of disease outbreaks during peak periods and in key areas, and to increase the two-dose vaccination rate for varicella in areas with case aggregation and among key populations.
