Incidence trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever in China
- Author:
ZHAO Jin
;
ZHOU Yinzhu
;
CHEN Shuilian
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Dengue fever;
incidence trend;
seasonal distribution;
spatial aggregation
- From:
China Tropical Medicine
2024;24(8):920-
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever in China based on the data from the China Disease Control Information System and the "National Statutory Infectious Disease Epidemic Overview" published by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever epidemics. Methods The incidence rates and monthly case numbers of dengue fever in China from 2015 to 2023 were collected. Provinces were classified according to the severity of the epidemic and the distribution status of the Aedes vector. The incidence trends, seasonal distribution, and spatial aggregation of dengue fever in China were statistically analyzed. Results The top five provinces with the highest average annual incidence rates from 2015 to 2023 were Yunnan (6.16/100 000), Guangdong (1.70/100 000), Hainan (1.13/100 000), Fujian (1.13/100 000), and Chongqing (0.74/100 000). The average annual incidence rate of dengue fever in China increased by 70.79% from 2015 to 2019 (AAPC=70.79, P=0.045). In Class Ⅰ regions, the incidence of Guangxi and Hainan showed a linear regression trend, with average annual increases of 844.73% (AAPC=844.73, P=0.021) and 516.51% (AAPC=516.51, P=0.013), respectively. In Class Ⅱ regions, except for Shanghai, the incidence of other provinces showed a linear regression trend, with Jiangxi having the highest average annual increase of 610.16% (AAPC=610.16, P=0.021), followed by Chongqing at 345.12% (AAPC=345.12, P=0.038). In Class Ⅲ regions, the incidence of Hebei, Shanxi, and Liaoning had a linear regression trend, with average annual increases of 80.67% (AAPC=80.67, P=0.028), 202.31% (AAPC=202.31, P=0.001), and 70.19% (AAPC=70.19, P=0.031), respectively. The epidemic of dengue fever showed no obvious seasonality in 2021, strict seasonality in 2022, and strong seasonality in the rest of the years. The epidemic peak days were mostly concentrated in the middle and late September to early October of each year, and the epidemic peak periods were mainly concentrated in August-early November. From 2015 to 2018, the incidence rate had no spatial aggregation nationwide, and the incidence rate in 2019 had spatial aggregation nationwide. In 2015-2019 and 2023, there were no high-low gathering areas in the country, and high-high gathering areas appeared in 2018 (Fujian, Hainan) and 2019 (Guangxi). Conclusions The situation of dengue fever prevention and control in China is grim. High-risk epidemic areas of dengue fever will no longer be limited to Class Ⅰ provinces, and the risk of expansion to Class Ⅱ provinces is increasing.
- Full text:20251107104608793976.Incidence trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever in China.pdf
