Construction of nomogram predictive model for the risk of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years
10.3980/j.issn.1672-5123.2025.11.28
- VernacularTitle:60岁以上老年人干眼风险列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Qiudan HUANG
1
;
Zhiping LIU
1
;
Xi YIN
1
;
Haiping CHEN
1
Author Information
1. Department of Ophthalmology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510260, Guangdong Province, China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
elderly;
dry eye;
nomograms;
predictive model
- From:
International Eye Science
2025;25(11):1887-1892
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
AIM:To investigate the influencing factors of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years, and to construct a risk nomogram prediction model, so as to provide a reference for the identification of high-risk individuals and the development of preventive strategies.METHODS:A convenience sampling method was used to select 301 people aged over 60 years who attended the ophthalmology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University between July 2023 and December 2023. They were divided into a dry eye group(n=173)and a non-dry eye group(n=128)based on the presence or absence of dry eye. Data from the two groups were compared and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS:Gender, hypertension, meibomian gland dysfunction, frequent use of eye drops, frequent use of electronic products, and frequent exposure to dry environments were significant influencing factors for the occurrence of dry eye in people aged over 60 years(all P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model demonstrated excellent discrimination(AUC=0.86, 95% CI: 0.81-0.90). The calibration curve showed good fit with the ideal curve, indicating high predictive accuracy. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P-value of 0.424. The sensitivity was 73% and the specificity was 86%.CONCLUSION:The nomogram predictive model for the risk of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years constructed in this study showed good discrimination and calibration. It can serve as an intuitive and effective clinical risk assessment tool, providing a basis for the early identification of high-risk populations and the development of individualized intervention strategies.
