Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and its influencing factors in Hubei Province based on the geographically weighted regression model
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2025.05.006
- VernacularTitle:基于地理加权回归模型的湖北省肺结核发病情况及其影响因素
- Author:
Xingxing LU
1
;
Xun LIU
1
;
Fan WANG
1
;
Jianjun YE
1
;
Yu ZHANG
1
;
Chengfeng YANG
1
;
Liping ZHOU
1
;
Hongxing WANG
2
;
Wenqian ZHOU
2
Author Information
1. Hubei Institute for Tuberculosis Control , Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Wuhan , Hubei 430030 , China
2. Hubei Cancer Hospital , Tongji Medical College , Huazhong University of Science and Technology , Wuhan , Hubei 430030 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Tuberculosis;
Incidence;
GWR;
Spatial correlation;
Influencing factors
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2025;36(5):28-31
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the spatial distribution of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hubei Province and its influencing factors, so as to improve the theoretical basis for scientific development of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the future. Methods The data of reported incidence of tuberculosis and related influencing factors in various counties and districts of Hubei Province in 2020 were collected. Global Moran's I index, hotspot analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model analysis were used to calculate the spatial autocorrelation of the incidence of tuberculosis, and to analyze the influencing factors affecting the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Results There were obvious regional differences in the space distribution of the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Hot spot analysis showed positive spatial correlation and obvious clustering. The GWR model (AICc=784.251) in this study had higher AICc value compared to the ordinary least squares regression (OLS) model (AICc=804.2585). The GWR model showed that the increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and above and the proportion of the ethnic minority population had a significant promoting effect on the increase of the incidence rate of tuberculosis, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity. The effect of PM2.5 concentration on the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis varied in different regions, and the degree of effect was also different. Conclusion The proportion of people aged 65 and above and the proportion of ethnic minorities may significantly influence the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. The effect of PM2.5 concentration varies in different regions, so targeted measures should be formulated according to the situation in different regions.
