Construction and validation of a risk prediction model of unplanned 30-day readmission in patients after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting
- VernacularTitle:单纯冠状动脉旁路移植术出院后30天内非计划再入院风险预测模型构建与验证
- Author:
Xu CAO
1
;
Wuwei WANG
1
;
Hongwei JIANG
1
;
Qiang ZHOU
1
;
Xin CHEN
1
;
Rui WANG
1
Author Information
1. Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing, 210006, P. R. China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting;
readmission;
risk factor;
prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
2025;32(05):646-654
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the factors associated with unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in adult patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to develop and validate a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients who underwent isolated CABG at the Nanjing First Hospital between January 2020 and June 2024. Data from January 2020 to August 2023 were used as a training set, and data from September 2023 to June 2024 were used as a validation set. In the training set, patients were divided into a readmission group and a non-readmission group based on whether they had unplanned readmission within 30 days post-discharge. Clinical data between the two groups were compared, and logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for unplanned readmission. A risk prediction model and a nomogram were constructed, and internal validation was performed to assess the model’s performance. The validation set was used for validation. Results A total of 2 460 patients were included, comprising 1 787 males and 673 females, with a median age of 70 (34, 89) years. The training set included 1 932 patients, and the validation set included 528 patients. In the training set, there were statistically significant differences between the readmission group (79 patients) and the non-readmission group (1 853 patients) in terms of gender, age, carotid artery stenosis, history of myocardial infarction, preoperative anemia, and heart failure classification (P<0.05). The main causes of readmission were poor wound healing, postoperative pulmonary infections, and new-onset atrial fibrillation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that females [OR=1.659, 95%CI (1.022, 2.692), P=0.041], age [OR=1.042, 95%CI (1.011, 1.075), P=0.008], carotid artery stenosis [OR=1.680, 95%CI (1.130, 2.496), P=0.010], duration of first ICU stay [OR=1.359, 95%CI (1.195, 1.545), P<0.001], and the second ICU admission [OR=4.142, 95%CI (1.507, 11.383), P=0.006] were independent risk factors for unplanned readmission. In the internal validation, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806, and the net benefit rate of the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) was >3%. In the validation set, the AUC was 0.732, and the DCA net benefit rate ranged from 3% to 48%. Conclusion Females, age, carotid artery stenosis, duration of first ICU stay, and second ICU admission are independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after isolated CABG. The constructed nomogram demonstrates good predictive power.
