Establishment and validation of a predictive model for acute posterior circulation infarction in patients with vertebral artery dysplasia based on ultrasound and clinical data
10.19845/j.cnki.zfysjjbzz.2024.0173
- VernacularTitle:基于超声及临床资料构建椎动脉发育不良患者发生急性后循环脑梗死的预测模型及验证
- Author:
Ruixin DUAN
1
;
Lijuan YANG
;
Guiping LI
Author Information
1. 内蒙古医科大学包头临床医学院,包头市中心医院,内蒙古 包头 014040
- Keywords:
Vertebral artery dysplasia;
Ultrasound findings;
Clinical indices;
Acute posterior circulation infarction;
Model prediction
- From:
Journal of Apoplexy and Nervous Diseases
2024;41(10):910-915
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To establish and validate a predictive model for acute posterior circulation infarction in patients with vertebral artery dysplasia based on ultrasound and clinical data.Methods A total of 347 patients with an ultrasonic diagnosis of vertebral artery dysplasia who were admitted to our hospital from March 2017 to December 2023 were enrolled as subjects.A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for acute posterior circulation infarction in patients with vertebral artery dysplasia,and R software was used to establish a nomogram predictive model for acute posterior circulation infarction in patients with vertebral artery dysplasia.Then the model was assessed and validated.Results Among the 347 patients with vertebral artery dysplasia,50 patients developed acute posterior circulation infarction,resulting in an incidence rate of 14.4%.The multivariate logical regression analysis showed that the nomogram model based on the predictive factors of hypertension,diabetes,hyperhomocysteinemia,embryonal posterior cerebral artery,and vertebral artery dominance had an area under the ROC curve of 0.772(95%confidence interval:0.700?0.844),with a Brier score of 0.105.Conclusion The nomogram model based on the predictive factors of hypertension,diabetes,hyperhomocysteinemia,embryonal posterior cerebral artery,and vertebral artery dominance has a relatively high value in predicting acute posterior circulation infarction in patients with vertebral artery dysplasia.
