Study on the Prediction of Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Based on the SARIMA-LSTM Model

Shishi TANG; Yuxuan LI; Shengsheng TANG; Qinghua LIU; Yi ZHOU

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Study on the Prediction of Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Based on the SARIMA-LSTM Model

VernacularTitle:基于SARIMA-LSTM模型的肾综合征出血热发病率预测研究
Author: Shishi TANG ¹ ; Yuxuan LI ; Shengsheng TANG ; Qinghua LIU ; Yi ZHOU
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1. 中山大学中山医学院广州 510080
Keywords: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS); infectious disease surveillance and early warning; statistical model; machine learning; SARIMA-LSTM model
From: Journal of Medical Informatics 2024;45(8):71-77
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Purpose/Significance To investigate the application of cutting-edge technologies in predicting the incidence of hemor-rhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS),to compile and integrate various time-series analysis methods,evaluate and select the opti-mal model.Method/Process By utilizing national HFRS incidence data from 2004 to 2020,the effectiveness of models is predicted based on statistical methods:SARIMA,STL-ARIMA and TBATS,neural network approaches:NNAR,LSTM and combined models of SARIMA-LSTM with 3 different weighting schemes.The performance of these models is comprehensively assessed using RMSE,MAE and MAPE.Result/Conclusion The SARIMA and LSTM models are identified as the superior individual models.The combined SARI-MA-LSTM model demonstrates enhanced performance compared to individual models.The SARIMA-LSTM model optimized using the reciprocal of error method is deemed the optimal model.The optimal model is expected to provide technical support and references for the early warning system model design of HFRS.