Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram based on NRS score in elderly patients with sepsis
10.16753/j.cnki.1008-2344.2024.06.006
- VernacularTitle:基于NRS评分的老年脓毒症患者预后列线图的建立与验证
- Author:
Fang LI
1
;
Weifeng ZHOU
;
Min PAN
;
Shu WANG
Author Information
1. 安徽医学高等专科学校临床医学院(全科医学院),合肥 安徽 230601
- Keywords:
elderly patients;
sepsis;
biomarkers;
nutritional risk screening;
prediction model
- From:
Journal of Shenyang Medical College
2024;26(6):589-596
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To determine the prognostic factors in elderly patients with sepsis and to establish a prognostic model for predicting short-term mortality based on nutrition risk screening scores(NRS-2002).Methods:Demographic details,clinical information,data on biological marker of 426 elderly patients with sepsis were collected and NRS-2002 score were calculated within the first 24 hours of hospital admission.In a 7∶3 ratio,these patients were randomly divided into the training group and the validation group.The Lasso regression model was used to reduce data dimensions and select features.Cox regression analysis was conducted to analyze prognostic signature,based on which a nomogram was developed,and its predictive accuracy was evaluated.Results:Lasso regression analysis and multiple Cox regression analysis showed that albumin,urea nitrogen,lactic acid,and NRS-2002 score were independent risk factors that affected the 30-day prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis(P＜0.05).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.772(95%CI:0.734-0.812)and 0.730(95%CI:0.695-0.766),respectively.The calibration curves were fitted well in the two groups.Conclusion:The construction of prognostic nomogram based on NRS score can help clinicians timely assess the early risk of death in elderly patients with sepsis and accordingly take proactive measures.
