Predicting the death trend of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2023 to 2027 based on grey GM(1,1)model
10.3969/j.issn.1672-8467.2024.06.006
- VernacularTitle:基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的2023-2027年闵行区脑卒中死亡趋势预测
- Author:
Lin-Li CHEN
1
;
Shui-Li XUAN
;
Jing-Yi NI
;
Jia-Qi GUO
;
Wei LIU
;
Hui-Lin XU
;
Yi-Bin ZHOU
Author Information
1. 上海市闵行区疾病预防控制中心信息管理科 上海 201101
- Keywords:
stroke;
death trend;
prediction;
grey GM(1,1)model
- From:
Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences
2024;51(6):915-920,930
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the trend of stroke mortality in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022 and to predict stroke mortality from 2023 to 2027.Methods Annual percentage change(APC)of stroke deaths in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022 was calculated,and then Joinpoint linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend of stroke deaths.A grey GM(1,1)model was constructed based on the stroke mortality rate in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2012 to 2022.The model was used to predict and analyze the stroke mortality rate in Minhang District,Shanghai from 2023 to 2027.The fitting effect of the model was evaluated using relative error and grade deviation.Results From 2012 to 2022,the overall mortality rate of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai was on the rise for both males and females(total population:APC=2.50%,P<0.001;male:APC=3.41%,P<0.001;female:APC=1.46%,P=0.008).The grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the increasing trend of stroke mortality rate in Minhang District from 2023 to 2027.The crude mortality rate of stroke in the entire population in 2027 would be 97.55/100000,with 112.31/100000 for males and 83.33/100000 for females.The fitting effect of the model was tested and evaluated to meet high requirements.Conclusion In the past decade,the mortality rate of stroke in Minhang District,Shanghai has shown a significant upward trend.The 5-year prediction results showed that the mortality rate will still on the rise year by year.
