Validation of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score for the prediction of 1-year mortality in a Chinese cohort
10.1097/CM9.0000000000002026
- VernacularTitle:Validation of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score for the prediction of 1-year mortality in a Chinese cohort
- Author:
Duo XU
1
;
Yanjing DONG
;
Bo ZHANG
;
Li LI
;
Chenyang JIANG
Author Information
1. Department of Cardiology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 3100016, China
- Keywords:
Validation;
Risk prediction;
MAGGIC;
Heart failure;
Mortality;
Chinese
- From:
Chinese Medical Journal
2022;135(23):2829-2835
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background::The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score was developed in 2013 to predict survival in heart failure (HF) patients. However, it has yet to be validated in a Chinese population. Our study aimed to investigate the ability of the score to predict 1-year mortality in a Chinese population.Methods::Consecutive patients with HF were retrospectively selected from the inpatient electronic medical records of the cardiology department in a regional hospital in China. A total integer score was calculated for each enrolled patient based on the value of each risk factor in the MAGGIC scoring system. Each enrolled patient was followed for at least 1 year. The observational endpoint of this study was all-cause mortality. The predictive ability of the MAGGIC score was assessed by comparing observed and predicted mortality within 1 year.Results::Between January 2018 and December 2020, a total of 635 patients were included in the study: 57 (9.0%) of whom died within 1 year after discharge. The average age of all patients was 74.6 ± 11.2 years, 264 of them (41.6%) were male, and the average left ventricular ejection fraction was 50.7% ± 13.2%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.840 (95% confidence interval: 0.779, 0.901), which indicated a fair discriminatory ability of the score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result ( χ2 = 12.902, degree of freedom = 8, P = 0.115) indicated that the MAGGIC score had good calibration. The decision curve analysis showed that the MAGGIC score yielded a good clinical net benefit and net reduction in interventions. Conclusions::This validation of the MAGGIC score showed that it has a good ability to predict 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with HF after discharge. Due to regional and inter-hospital differences, external validation studies need to be further confirmed in other centers.
