Time characteristics and trend prediction of hepatitis B infection in Baqiao Distract,Xi'an City
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2024.04.031
- VernacularTitle:西安市灞桥区乙型病毒性肝炎感染时间变化特征及趋势预测
- Author:
Chun SONG
1
;
Huijuan FAN
1
;
Jingyu ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical University , Xi'an , Shanxi 710038 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hepatitis B;
ARIMA;
Prediction
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2024;35(4):129-132
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the characteristics of hepatitis B infection time in Baqiao Distract of Xian City, predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B in the next years with ARIMA model, and provide theoretical guidance for the adjustment of hepatitis B prevention and control strategies. Methods A total of 7173 cases of hepatitis B in our hospital from 2018 to 2023 were collected as subjects,the annual percentage of change (APC) was used to analyze the characteristics of time of hepatitis B infection in the next years, and the ARIMA optimal model was used to predict the incidence rate in 2024. Results The gross incidence of hepatitis B in Baqiao Distract of Xian City from 2018 to 2023 was 51.30 per 100 000, and the standardized incidence rate was 42.11 per 100 000. The six-year incidence rate showed an upward trend (APC=8.71%,95% CI：3.29% -9.61% , P<0.05). Chi square results showed that the standardized incidence rate of hepatitis B in men is 1.51 times than women, and the incidence rate of hepatitis B in the 30-45 age group was the highest. The prediction results showed that the number of hepatitis B cases in 2024 was 1590, which was 1.91% lower than that in 2023 (1621 cases). Conclusion The infection of hepatitis B is on the rise in Baqiao Distract of Xian City, ARIMA can be used to predict this kind of infectious disease and provide scientific guidance for the prevention of this disease.
