Joinpoint regression analysis on the epidemiological trend of influenza in Nantong city, Jiangsu province in 2010 - 2022
10.3969/j.issn.1006-2483.2024.04.008
- VernacularTitle:2010—2022年南通市流行性感冒流行趋势的Joinpoint回归分析
- Author:
Junfeng MIAO
1
;
Ye WEI
1
;
Chao BAO
1
Author Information
1. Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Nantong , Jiangsu 226000 , China
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Influenza;
Joinpoint regression analysis;
Trends analysis
- From:
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
2024;35(4):32-36
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Nantong city, explore its changing trend, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures. Methods The incidence data of influenza in Nantong city from 2010 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistical software. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of influenza incidence. Results The annual reported incidence of influenza in Nantong city showed an exponential upward trend from 2010 to 2022 (APC=25.25, P=0.002). The annual reported incidence rate of males was higher than that of females, and the incidence trend of both showed an exponential upward trend(Male: APC=24.40, P=0.002; Female: APC=26.11, P=0.002). The seasonal index showed a unimodal distribution, with a peak from December to February of the next year, and the highest value was 2.78 in January. The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed a rapid upward trend from 0 to 7 years old (β1=16.13, P<0.001), a cliff decline from 7 to10 years old (β1=-44.50, P=0.037), and a low slow downward trend from 10 to 45 years old (β1=-0.20, P=0.001), and lower tailing was observed in 45-85 years group (β1=0.04, P=0.162). Conclusion The overall incidence rate of influenza in Nantong City is on the rise. Children under 7 years old are the key protected population. We should control the key season, do a good job of publicity and education, encourage vaccination,and at the same time do a good job in pathogen monitoring, timely pay attention to the situation of epidemic strains, and scientific prevention and control.
