Construction of ultrasound prediction model for postopera-tive recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma after complete endoscopic radical surgery
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2024.02.008
- VernacularTitle:构建完全腔镜下甲状腺癌根治术后甲状腺乳头状癌复发的超声预测模型
- Author:
Hai-Lan CHEN
1
;
Jian-Xin HUANG
;
Wei CHEN
Author Information
1. 莆田学院附属医院 超声科(福建 莆田 351100)
- Keywords:
Papillary thyroid carcinoma;
High resolution ultrasound;
Endoscopic radical opera-tion;
Forecast model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2024;27(2):129-133
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish an ultrasound prediction model of postoperative recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC)after complete endoscopic radical surgery.Meth-ods:264 patients with PTC who underwent complete endoscopic radical surgery for the first time in our hospital from February 2017 to March 2020 were retrospectively collected.They were divided in-to recurrence group and non recurrence group according to whether there was recurrence after surgery.The clinical data,nodule diameter,nodule number,internal echo,microcalcification and other ultrasonic data of the two groups were compared.Single factor,Lasso and Logistic regression mod-els were used to analyze the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence of PTC patients,and an nomogram model was established based on the selected indicators.Results:Compared with the non recurrence group,the patients in the recurrence group had larger nodule diameter,irregular nod-ule edge,aspect ratio＞1,microcalcification and capsule invasion(P＜0.05).Nodular diameter＞10 mm,irregular edge,aspect ratio＞1,microcalcification and capsule invasion were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of PTC patients(P＜0.05).The C-index of the constructed nomogram model was 0.756(95％Cl:0.684～0.830),and the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.895(95％Cl:0.866～0.915);The calibration curve results show that the average deviation is 0.027,and the predic-tion probability fits the actual probability well;The clinical decision curve is far away from the extreme curve and has good clinical applicability.Conclusion:The nomogram model based on nodule size,irregular margin,microcalcification,aspect ratio＞1,and capsule invasion has good accuracy in pre-dicting the recurrence of PTC patients after complete endoscopic radical surgery,and has certain clinical significance.
