Construction and evaluation of a multifactor prediction model for the risk of pneumothorax in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
10.3760/cma.j.cn341190-20230207-00075
- VernacularTitle:慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者气胸发生风险的多因素预测模型构建和评价
- Author:
Wen ZHOU
1
;
Can SHAO
;
Jie TAN
Author Information
1. 温州市中西医结合医院急诊科，温州 325000
- Keywords:
Pulmonary disease,chronic obstructive;
Pneumothorax;
Forecasting;
Respiratory function tests;
C-Reactive protein;
Urea;
Body mass index
- From:
Chinese Journal of Primary Medicine and Pharmacy
2024;31(2):208-212
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors for pneumothorax in older adult patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), construct and validate a prediction model of pneumothorax risk in patients with COPD.Methods:A total of 500 patients with COPD who received treatment at the Department of Emergency, Wenzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine from January 2018 to December 2021 were selected using the convenience sampling method and included in this study. Chest CT scan or chest X-ray film findings were used as diagnostic criteria. These patients were divided into a pneumothorax group and a control group according to whether they developed pneumothorax. Taking whether patients develop pneumothorax as a dependent variable and predictive risk factors as independent variables, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of the included risk factors were performed to identify the independent influential factors for developing pneumothorax in patients with COPD. Subsequently, a prediction model for predicting the risk of pneumothorax was constructed and evaluated. A decision curve analysis was conducted to evaluate its clinical practicality.Results:Among 500 patients with COPD, 104 developed pneumothorax, with an incidence of 20.80%. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that long duration of COPD, C-reactive protein, and mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for the development of pneumothorax in these patients. The percentage of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV 1%), the FEV 1/forced vital capacity ratio (FEV 1/FVC), and serum albumin are protective factors for the development of pneumothorax in patients with COPD. A prediction model for the risk of developing pneumothorax was constructed. Finally, we obtained the formula: Logit( P) = 12.427 + 2.241 × COPD duration + 0.899 × smoking + 7.715 × CRP + 0.208 × mechanical ventilation history -0.514 × albumin -0.243 × FEV 1%-0.286 FEV 1/FVC. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve was 0.815 and the C-Index was 0.781 (95% CI: 0.856-0.891), indicating that the constructed prediction model can better distinguish between patients with and without pneumothorax among those with COPD. Conclusion:C-reactive protein, albumin, FEV 1%, FEV 1/FVC, smoking history, and mechanical ventilation history are all risk factors for the development of pneumothorax. A prediction model has been successfully constructed based on these risk factors, which can effectively predict the risk of pneumothorax. This constructed risk prediction model provides good guidance in taking preventive treatment and nursing measures by medical staff.
