Construction of a column-line graph for predicting the probability of survival in early-stage elderly HER2-positive breast cancer based on the SEER database
10.12092/j.issn.1009-2501.2024.03.006
- Author:
Guilan WU
1
;
Jia LIU
1
;
Hong SUN
2
Author Information
1. School of Pharmacy, Fujian Medical University
2. Department of Pharmacy, Fujian Provincial Hospital, Provincial Clinical Medical College, Fujian Medical University
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
chemotherapy;
HER2-positive breast cancer;
nomogram;
SEER database
- From:
Chinese Journal of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics
2024;29(3):283-295
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
AIM: To construct column-line plots to predict survival in elderly patients with early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. METHODS: 5 220 (based on the era of single-targeted therapy) and 1 176 (based on the era of dual-targeted therapy) patients screened in the SEER database were randomized into a training group and an internal validation group. COX proportional risk regression was used to screen survival-related predictors and build a column-line graphical model, and the accuracy and utility of the model were tested using the consistency index (C-index), calibration curves, and time-dependent ROC curves. Patients receiving chemotherapy and non-chemotherapy were statistically paired using two-group propensity score matching, and subgroup analyses were performed on the screened variables. RESULTS: The single-targeted therapy era line graph was constructed from seven variables: age, marital status, T-stage, N-stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The dual-targeted therapy era line graph was constructed from five variables: age, AJCC staging, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The results of the subgroup analysis showed that older HER2-positive breast cancer patients who received chemotherapy had better OS. CONCLUSION: Based on the SEER database, an accurate column-line graph predicting survival in elderly patients with early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer was established and validated. This study suggests that chemotherapy increases survival benefit in elderly patients.
