1.Characterization and Application of Moisture Absorption Kinetics of Traditional Chinese Medicines Based on Double Exponential Model:A Review
Yanting YU ; Lei XIONG ; Yan HE ; Wei LIU ; Jing YANG ; Yao ZHANG ; Jiali CHEN ; Xiaojian LUO ; Xiaoyong RAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(5):340-346
Hygroscopicity research has long been a key focus and hot topic in Chinese materia medica(CMM). Elucidating hygroscopic mechanisms plays a vital role in formulation design, process optimization, and storage condition selection. Hygroscopic models serve as essential tools for characterizing CMM hygroscopic mechanisms, with various types available. The double exponential model is a kinetic mathematical model constructed based on the law of conservation of energy and Fick's first law of diffusion, tailored to the physical properties of CMM extracts. In recent years, this model has been extensively applied to simulate the dynamic moisture absorption behavior of CMM extracts and solid dosage forms under varying humidity conditions. It has revealed the correlation between moisture absorption kinetic parameters and material properties, offering a new perspective for characterizing the moisture uptake behavior of CMM. This paper systematically reviews the application progress of this model in the field of CMM, analyzes its advantages, disadvantages, and challenges in this domain, and explores its potential application trends in other fields. It aims to provide references for elucidating the moisture absorption mechanisms of CMM and researching moisture-proofing technologies, while also offering insights for its broader application in food and polymer materials.
2.Construction of Organoid-on-a-chip and Its Applications in Biomedical Fields
Rui-Xia LIU ; Jing ZHANG ; Xiao LI ; Yi LIU ; Long HUANG ; Hong-Wei HOU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(2):293-308
Organoid-on-a-chip technology represents a promising interdisciplinary advancement that merges two cutting-edge biomedical platforms: stem cell-derived organoids and microfluidics-based organ-on-a-chip systems. Organoids are self-organizing three-dimensional (3D) cell cultures that mimic the key structural and functional features of in vivo organs. However, traditional organoid culture systems are often static, lacking dynamic environmental cues and suffering from limitations such as batch-to-batch variability, low stability, and low throughput. Organ-on-a-chip platforms, by contrast, utilize microfluidic technologies to simulate the dynamic physiological microenvironment of human tissues and organs, enabling more controlled cell growth and differentiation. By integrating the advantages of organoids and organ-on-a-chip technologies, organoid-on-a-chip systems transcend the limitations of conventional 3D culture models, offering a more physiologically relevant and controllable in vitro platform. In organoid-on-a-chip systems, stem cells or pre-formed organoids are cultured in micro-engineered environments that mimic in vivo conditions, enabling precise control over fluid flow, mechanical forces, and biochemical cues. Specifically, these platforms employ advanced strategies including bio-inspired 3D scaffolds for structural support, precise spatial cell patterning via 3D bioprinting, and integrated biosensors for real-time monitoring of metabolic activities. These synergistic elements recreate complex extracellular matrix signals and ensure high structural fidelity. Based on structural complexity, organoid-on-a-chip systems are classified into single-organoid and multi-organoid types, forming a trajectory from unit biomimicry to systemic simulation. Single-organoid chips focus on highly biomimetic units by integrating vascular, immune, or neural functions. Multi-organoid chips simulate inter-organ crosstalk and systemic homeostasis, advancing complex disease modeling and PK/PD evaluation. This emerging technology has demonstrated broad application potential in multiple fields of biomedicine. Organoid-on-a-chip systems can recapitulate organ developmentin vitro, facilitating research in developmental biology. They mimic organ-specific physiological activities and mechanisms, showing promising applications in regenerative medicine for tissue repair or replacement. In disease modeling, they support the reconstruction of models for neurodegenerative, inflammatory, infectious, metabolic diseases, and cancers. These platforms also enable in vitro drug testing and pharmacokinetic studies (ADME). Patient-derived chips preserve genetic and pathological features, offering potential for precision medicine. Additionally, they reduce species differences in toxicology, providing human-relevant data for environmental, food, cosmetic, and drug safety assessments. Despite progress, organoid-on-a-chip systems face challenges in dynamic simulation, extracellular matrix (ECM) variability, and limited real-time 3D imaging, requiring improved materials and the integration of developmental signals. Current bottlenecks also include the high technical threshold for automation and the lack of standardized validation frameworks for regulatory adoption. Meanwhile, the concept of a “human-on-a-chip” has been proposed to mimic whole-body physiology by integrating multiple organoid modules. This approach enables systemic modeling of drug responses and toxicity, with the potential to reduce animal testing and revolutionize drug development. Future advancements in bio-responsive hydrogels and flexible biosensors will further empower these platforms to bridge the gap between bench-side research and personalized clinical interventions. In conclusion, organoid-on-a-chip technology offers a transformative in vitro model that closely recapitulates the complexity of human tissues and organ systems. It provides an unprecedented platform for advancing biomedical research, clinical translation, and pharmaceutical innovation. Continued development in biomaterials, microengineering, and analytical technologies will be essential to unlocking the full potential of this powerful tool.
3.Construction of Organoid-on-a-chip and Its Applications in Biomedical Fields
Rui-Xia LIU ; Jing ZHANG ; Xiao LI ; Yi LIU ; Long HUANG ; Hong-Wei HOU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(2):293-308
Organoid-on-a-chip technology represents a promising interdisciplinary advancement that merges two cutting-edge biomedical platforms: stem cell-derived organoids and microfluidics-based organ-on-a-chip systems. Organoids are self-organizing three-dimensional (3D) cell cultures that mimic the key structural and functional features of in vivo organs. However, traditional organoid culture systems are often static, lacking dynamic environmental cues and suffering from limitations such as batch-to-batch variability, low stability, and low throughput. Organ-on-a-chip platforms, by contrast, utilize microfluidic technologies to simulate the dynamic physiological microenvironment of human tissues and organs, enabling more controlled cell growth and differentiation. By integrating the advantages of organoids and organ-on-a-chip technologies, organoid-on-a-chip systems transcend the limitations of conventional 3D culture models, offering a more physiologically relevant and controllable in vitro platform. In organoid-on-a-chip systems, stem cells or pre-formed organoids are cultured in micro-engineered environments that mimic in vivo conditions, enabling precise control over fluid flow, mechanical forces, and biochemical cues. Specifically, these platforms employ advanced strategies including bio-inspired 3D scaffolds for structural support, precise spatial cell patterning via 3D bioprinting, and integrated biosensors for real-time monitoring of metabolic activities. These synergistic elements recreate complex extracellular matrix signals and ensure high structural fidelity. Based on structural complexity, organoid-on-a-chip systems are classified into single-organoid and multi-organoid types, forming a trajectory from unit biomimicry to systemic simulation. Single-organoid chips focus on highly biomimetic units by integrating vascular, immune, or neural functions. Multi-organoid chips simulate inter-organ crosstalk and systemic homeostasis, advancing complex disease modeling and PK/PD evaluation. This emerging technology has demonstrated broad application potential in multiple fields of biomedicine. Organoid-on-a-chip systems can recapitulate organ developmentin vitro, facilitating research in developmental biology. They mimic organ-specific physiological activities and mechanisms, showing promising applications in regenerative medicine for tissue repair or replacement. In disease modeling, they support the reconstruction of models for neurodegenerative, inflammatory, infectious, metabolic diseases, and cancers. These platforms also enable in vitro drug testing and pharmacokinetic studies (ADME). Patient-derived chips preserve genetic and pathological features, offering potential for precision medicine. Additionally, they reduce species differences in toxicology, providing human-relevant data for environmental, food, cosmetic, and drug safety assessments. Despite progress, organoid-on-a-chip systems face challenges in dynamic simulation, extracellular matrix (ECM) variability, and limited real-time 3D imaging, requiring improved materials and the integration of developmental signals. Current bottlenecks also include the high technical threshold for automation and the lack of standardized validation frameworks for regulatory adoption. Meanwhile, the concept of a “human-on-a-chip” has been proposed to mimic whole-body physiology by integrating multiple organoid modules. This approach enables systemic modeling of drug responses and toxicity, with the potential to reduce animal testing and revolutionize drug development. Future advancements in bio-responsive hydrogels and flexible biosensors will further empower these platforms to bridge the gap between bench-side research and personalized clinical interventions. In conclusion, organoid-on-a-chip technology offers a transformative in vitro model that closely recapitulates the complexity of human tissues and organ systems. It provides an unprecedented platform for advancing biomedical research, clinical translation, and pharmaceutical innovation. Continued development in biomaterials, microengineering, and analytical technologies will be essential to unlocking the full potential of this powerful tool.
4.Muscle mass reduction and exercise training intervention in non-obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
Ruihua ZHANG ; Yihan WEI ; Jing XU ; Lina JIANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(2):99-103
Objective To investigate muscle mass reduction and the effect of exercise training intervention in non-obese patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods A total of 324 non-obese patients with T2DM admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University were enrolled from February 2023 to February 2025. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was adopted to detect and analyze the data of appendicular skeletal muscle index (ASMI). Non-obese T2DM patients were classified into an observation group (n=162, receive sports training intervention) and a control group (n=162, receiving routine exercise intervention) by adopting random number grouping criteria. Both groups were intervened for 3 months. The muscle mass indicators [ASMI, body mass index (BMI), and body fat rate], exercise ability [6-minute walking distance (6MWD), grip strength, and one-leg standing time], metabolic indicators [fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR)], and quality of life [Diabetes Quality of Life Scale (DQOL)] were compared between the two groups to evaluate the effectiveness of sports training intervention. Results A total of 324 non-obese T2DM patients were enrolled, including 123 cases with reduced muscle mass (37.96%). There were no significant differences in the baseline data and the proportion of patients with muscle mass reduction between the two groups before intervention (P>0.05). After intervention, the ASMI, 6MWD, grip strength, and one-leg standing time in the observation group were higher or longer than those of the control group (P<0.05), while the body fat rate, FPG, HbA1c, HOMA-IR and DQOL scores were lower than those of the control group (P<0.05). Conclusion The incidence of muscle mass reduction is relatively high among non-obese T2DM patients, and exercise training intervention has significant effects on improving muscle mass, metabolic status, exercise capacity and quality of life in non-obese T2DM patients.
5.Historical Evolution and Key Information Research on Classic Formula Puji Xiaoduyin
Lianchao ZHU ; Lyuyuan LIANG ; Jing TANG ; Jialei CAO ; Ziming XU ; Huizhen ZHANG ; Zhidan GUO ; Rongze MA ; Zhengshao ZHANG ; Bingqi WEI ; Xiubo DU ; Bingxiang MA
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):238-247
Puji Xiaoduyin, a specialized formula for the swollen-head epidemic, was recorded in the Catalogue of Ancient Classical Formula (the Second Batch)-Han Medicine, published in September 2023. It had been inherited and developed by medical experts of successive generations and passed down to this day. This paper sorted out the historical evolution of this formula using bibliometric methods. It also comprehensively analyzed key information on the formula name, historical origin, drug dosage, herb origin, processing methods, decocting methods, function, and clinical applications. Additionally, this paper analyzed the application of this formula in both modern and ancient times. Results showed that the formula was first recorded as "Puji Xiaodu Yinzi" in LI Dongyuan's Proven Formulas written by LI Gao from the Jin dynasty. The medicinal composition and dosage were: Scutellariae Radix and Coptidis Rhizoma (20.65 g each), Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma 12.39 g, Scrophulariae Radix, Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma (8.26 g each), Forsythiae Fructus, Arctii Fructus, Isatidis Radix, and Lasiosphaera Calvatia (4.13 g each), Bombyx Batryticatus and Cimicifugae Rhizoma (2.891 g each), Bupleuri Radix and Platycodonis Radix (8.26 g each). These medicines were grounded to fine powder. One dose, including 20.65 g of the powder, was mixed with 600 mL of water and decocted to 300 mL. After abandoning slag, the medicine should be taken warm frequently. In the formula, Bombyx Batryticatus is stir-fired. With the effect of dispersing wind and clearing heat, removing stagnation and dissipating mass, the formula is specialized in swollen-head epidemic, pestilence, red and swelling head, face, and neck, dry mouth and tongue, as well as other diseases resulting from toxic heat stagnated in the upper jiao. The formula is widely used in treating diseases involving the respiratory, dermal, ophthalmologic, otolaryngologic, and nervous systems. The formula is most frequently used for respiratory diseases, with a wide range of symptoms including parotitis/mumps (66 times), followed by tonsillitis (28 times). In conclusion, the broadly applied formula has accurate efficacy and great development value.
6.Historical Evolution and Key Information Research on Classic Formula Puji Xiaoduyin
Lianchao ZHU ; Lyuyuan LIANG ; Jing TANG ; Jialei CAO ; Ziming XU ; Huizhen ZHANG ; Zhidan GUO ; Rongze MA ; Zhengshao ZHANG ; Bingqi WEI ; Xiubo DU ; Bingxiang MA
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(10):238-247
Puji Xiaoduyin, a specialized formula for the swollen-head epidemic, was recorded in the Catalogue of Ancient Classical Formula (the Second Batch)-Han Medicine, published in September 2023. It had been inherited and developed by medical experts of successive generations and passed down to this day. This paper sorted out the historical evolution of this formula using bibliometric methods. It also comprehensively analyzed key information on the formula name, historical origin, drug dosage, herb origin, processing methods, decocting methods, function, and clinical applications. Additionally, this paper analyzed the application of this formula in both modern and ancient times. Results showed that the formula was first recorded as "Puji Xiaodu Yinzi" in LI Dongyuan's Proven Formulas written by LI Gao from the Jin dynasty. The medicinal composition and dosage were: Scutellariae Radix and Coptidis Rhizoma (20.65 g each), Ginseng Radix et Rhizoma 12.39 g, Scrophulariae Radix, Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, and Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma (8.26 g each), Forsythiae Fructus, Arctii Fructus, Isatidis Radix, and Lasiosphaera Calvatia (4.13 g each), Bombyx Batryticatus and Cimicifugae Rhizoma (2.891 g each), Bupleuri Radix and Platycodonis Radix (8.26 g each). These medicines were grounded to fine powder. One dose, including 20.65 g of the powder, was mixed with 600 mL of water and decocted to 300 mL. After abandoning slag, the medicine should be taken warm frequently. In the formula, Bombyx Batryticatus is stir-fired. With the effect of dispersing wind and clearing heat, removing stagnation and dissipating mass, the formula is specialized in swollen-head epidemic, pestilence, red and swelling head, face, and neck, dry mouth and tongue, as well as other diseases resulting from toxic heat stagnated in the upper jiao. The formula is widely used in treating diseases involving the respiratory, dermal, ophthalmologic, otolaryngologic, and nervous systems. The formula is most frequently used for respiratory diseases, with a wide range of symptoms including parotitis/mumps (66 times), followed by tonsillitis (28 times). In conclusion, the broadly applied formula has accurate efficacy and great development value.
7.The Diversity of Filamentous Morphologies and Magnetic Sensitivity Modulated by Diverse MagR Expression in Bacteria
Ya-Fei CHANG ; Jing ZHANG ; Peng ZHANG ; Xiu-Juan ZHOU ; Meng-Ke WEI ; Tian-Tian CAI ; Pei-Qi HE ; Jun-Feng WANG ; Can XIE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1439-1456
Objective Magnetoreception, the remarkable ability of diverse animals to sense and utilize the geomagnetic field for orientation and navigation, remains a molecularly unresolved mystery in sensory biology. The putative magnetoreceptor (MagR, previously known as IscA1) is a highly conserved iron-sulfur protein implicated in both magnetoreception and iron metabolism; however, the functional diversity among its cross-species homologs remains poorly understood. Cellular morphology is a key genetically determined trait that can be altered through genetic or environmental modifications—a process known as cell morphology engineering. Constructing engineered cells with specific morphological features and magnetic sensitivity to achieve remote, non-invasive magnetic modulation represents a crucial goal in this field with significant application potential. Therefore, this study aims to systematically investigate the effects of MagR heterologous expression on bacterial morphology and magnetic sensing capabilities, screen for MagR-based magnetically sensitive morphology engineering pathways, and reveal the underlying molecular mechanisms. Methods We systematically screened 28 MagR homologous genes from diverse prokaryotic and animal taxa to evaluate their expression and corresponding phenotypic effects in Escherichia coli (E. coli). To compare the differential magnetic responses among bacteria expressing various recombinant MagR proteins, we utilized high-throughput automated bright-field microscopic imaging and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Furthermore, comprehensive biochemical and biophysical characterizations of iron and iron-sulfur cluster binding were performed using Ferrozine colorimetric assays, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) absorption, and circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy. Additionally, 100 mT static magnetic field (SMF) exposure experiments were conducted to assess magnetically tunable phenotypes, while the intrinsic magnetic properties of purified MagR proteins were directly measured using a superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometer. Results Our results demonstrated that the heterologous expression of MagR homologs induced varying degrees of bacterial filamentation. From this comprehensive screen, two distinct morphological patterns were identified: hydra (Hydra vulgaris) MagR (hyMagR) promoted uniform cell elongation and filamentation, exhibiting robust magnetic sensitivity manifested as significantly enhanced filamentation under the 100 mT SMF. In contrast, pigeon (Columba livia) MagR (clMagR) induced only low-frequency, extreme filamentation (sporadically exceeding 80 μm) with a relatively weaker magnetic morphological response. Mechanistically, our data unambiguously proved that these phenotypic differences are primarily driven by distinct iron redox preferences rather than total cellular iron accumulation. Specifically, hyMagR preferentially binds ferrous iron (Fe2+), whereas clMagR favors ferric iron (Fe3+) and forms more stable iron-sulfur clusters. Intriguingly, although SQUID magnetometry showed that purified clMagR exhibited approximately five-fold higher mass magnetic susceptibility than hyMagR, its cellular magnetic response was weaker. We hypothesize that the Fe2+-preferred intracellular environment associated with hyMagR overexpression primes the cell for enhanced generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) via the Fenton reaction. Exposure to an SMF synergizes with this primed redox state, triggering the bacterial SOS response and upregulating cell division inhibitors to efficiently induce uniform filamentation. Conclusion Our findings identify the Fe2+/Fe3+ redox state as a critical determinant of MagR-mediated morphological remodeling and magnetic responsiveness. This discovery suggests a potential strategy for engineering magnetically responsive cellular systems for synthetic biology applications, and provides a plausible framework, which potentially combines intrinsic protein magnetism with redox-state modulation, for further investigating the evolutionary mechanisms of MagR-mediated magnetoreception.
8.The Diversity of Filamentous Morphologies and Magnetic Sensitivity Modulated by Diverse MagR Expression in Bacteria
Ya-Fei CHANG ; Jing ZHANG ; Peng ZHANG ; Xiu-Juan ZHOU ; Meng-Ke WEI ; Tian-Tian CAI ; Pei-Qi HE ; Jun-Feng WANG ; Can XIE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(5):1439-1456
Objective Magnetoreception, the remarkable ability of diverse animals to sense and utilize the geomagnetic field for orientation and navigation, remains a molecularly unresolved mystery in sensory biology. The putative magnetoreceptor (MagR, previously known as IscA1) is a highly conserved iron-sulfur protein implicated in both magnetoreception and iron metabolism; however, the functional diversity among its cross-species homologs remains poorly understood. Cellular morphology is a key genetically determined trait that can be altered through genetic or environmental modifications—a process known as cell morphology engineering. Constructing engineered cells with specific morphological features and magnetic sensitivity to achieve remote, non-invasive magnetic modulation represents a crucial goal in this field with significant application potential. Therefore, this study aims to systematically investigate the effects of MagR heterologous expression on bacterial morphology and magnetic sensing capabilities, screen for MagR-based magnetically sensitive morphology engineering pathways, and reveal the underlying molecular mechanisms. Methods We systematically screened 28 MagR homologous genes from diverse prokaryotic and animal taxa to evaluate their expression and corresponding phenotypic effects in Escherichia coli (E. coli). To compare the differential magnetic responses among bacteria expressing various recombinant MagR proteins, we utilized high-throughput automated bright-field microscopic imaging and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Furthermore, comprehensive biochemical and biophysical characterizations of iron and iron-sulfur cluster binding were performed using Ferrozine colorimetric assays, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) absorption, and circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy. Additionally, 100 mT static magnetic field (SMF) exposure experiments were conducted to assess magnetically tunable phenotypes, while the intrinsic magnetic properties of purified MagR proteins were directly measured using a superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometer. Results Our results demonstrated that the heterologous expression of MagR homologs induced varying degrees of bacterial filamentation. From this comprehensive screen, two distinct morphological patterns were identified: hydra (Hydra vulgaris) MagR (hyMagR) promoted uniform cell elongation and filamentation, exhibiting robust magnetic sensitivity manifested as significantly enhanced filamentation under the 100 mT SMF. In contrast, pigeon (Columba livia) MagR (clMagR) induced only low-frequency, extreme filamentation (sporadically exceeding 80 μm) with a relatively weaker magnetic morphological response. Mechanistically, our data unambiguously proved that these phenotypic differences are primarily driven by distinct iron redox preferences rather than total cellular iron accumulation. Specifically, hyMagR preferentially binds ferrous iron (Fe2+), whereas clMagR favors ferric iron (Fe3+) and forms more stable iron-sulfur clusters. Intriguingly, although SQUID magnetometry showed that purified clMagR exhibited approximately five-fold higher mass magnetic susceptibility than hyMagR, its cellular magnetic response was weaker. We hypothesize that the Fe2+-preferred intracellular environment associated with hyMagR overexpression primes the cell for enhanced generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) via the Fenton reaction. Exposure to an SMF synergizes with this primed redox state, triggering the bacterial SOS response and upregulating cell division inhibitors to efficiently induce uniform filamentation. Conclusion Our findings identify the Fe2+/Fe3+ redox state as a critical determinant of MagR-mediated morphological remodeling and magnetic responsiveness. This discovery suggests a potential strategy for engineering magnetically responsive cellular systems for synthetic biology applications, and provides a plausible framework, which potentially combines intrinsic protein magnetism with redox-state modulation, for further investigating the evolutionary mechanisms of MagR-mediated magnetoreception.
9.Investigation of the current situation of X-ray diagnostic equipment use and radiation protection in pet veterinary institutions in Zaozhuang City, China
Luwei JING ; Wei LU ; Hongliang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(4):484-488
Objective To investigate the current situation of X-ray diagnostic equipment use and radiation protection management in pet veterinary institutions in Zaozhuang City, China. Methods A survey was conducted on the use of X-ray diagnostic equipment and radiation health management in 29 pet veterinary institutions in Zaozhuang City, with data collected via a questionnaire. Results The utilization rate of X-ray diagnostic equipment was 65.52%, the evaluation rate of occupational disease hazard control effect was 21.05%, the annual radiation protection detection rate of workplaces was 47.37%, the declaration rate of occupational disease hazard projects was 21.05%, and the compliance rate for provision of personal protective supplies was 36.84%. The occupational health examination rate was 84%, the personal dose monitoring rate was 60%, and the rate of training on radiation protection regulations and knowledge was 48%. Conclusion The deployment and use rate of X-ray diagnostic equipment in pet veterinary institutions in Zaozhuang City is relatively high. The awareness of radiation safety and protection is relatively low for some institutions and personnel, and the occupational disease protection measures are inadequately implemented. Enhanced radiation protection management is recommended.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.


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