Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Despite therapeutic advancements over recent decades, the prognosis for patients with metastatic CRC (mCRC) remains poor. Approximately 2%-4% of mCRC cases exhibit human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) amplification or overexpression, defining a distinct molecular subtype. This HER2-positive status is strongly associated with primary resistance to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapies, which are the standard of care for patients with RAS wild-type tumors. Beyond its well-established role in breast and gastric cancers, HER2 has emerged as a pivotal biomarker and actionable therapeutic target in mCRC. However, selecting appropriate treatment strategies remains challenging due to patient heterogeneity and diverse molecular subtypes. This review systematically summarizes the molecular biology, diagnostic strategies, and advances in targeted therapies for HER2-positive mCRC. On the diagnostic front, we discuss the applications of immunohistochemistry (IHC), fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), next-generation sequencing (NGS), and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) detection technologies. We highlight discrepancies in diagnostic criteria across key clinical trials—such as HERACLES, DESTINY, and MOUNTAINEER—underscoring the urgent need for standardized, CRC-specific definitions to ensure consistent patient selection and comparability of efficacy data across studies. Although NGS enables comprehensive genomic profiling, its cost-effectiveness relative to traditional methods must be carefully considered. Therapeutically, we summarize clinical trial data for HER2-directed agents, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as tucatinib and lapatinib, monoclonal antibodies like trastuzumab, bispecific antibodies, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) such as trastuzumab deruxtecan. We review dual-targeting strategies and note recent FDA approvals that represent significant milestones in second-line treatment. Additionally, we explore the potential of combining immune checkpoint inhibitors with HER2-targeted therapies to enhance antitumor immunity through mechanisms including antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) and modulation of the tumor microenvironment. ADCs enable precise delivery of cytotoxic payloads, reducing off-target toxicity while effectively inhibiting oncogenic pathways. A substantial portion of this review is dedicated to dissecting the molecular mechanisms underlying primary and acquired resistance to HER2-targeted therapies—persistent challenges that limit clinical benefit. These mechanisms include reactivation of downstream signaling pathways such as PI3K/AKT/mTOR and MAPK, concurrent mutations in genes like KRAS or BRAF, and alterations in HER2 expression that compromise treatment efficacy. For instance, specific HER2 mutations (e.g., L755S) can reduce drug binding affinity, while ctDNA monitoring facilitates early detection of emerging resistance clones during disease progression, thereby enabling timely therapeutic adjustments. Tumor heterogeneity and dynamic interactions with the microenvironment further complicate resistance patterns observed in clinical practice. HER2-targeted therapy represents a new frontier in precision oncology for mCRC, offering renewed hope for improving patient outcomes. Realizing this potential will require continued optimization of diagnostic algorithms and treatment workflows. Future efforts must focus on overcoming resistance, validating liquid biopsy approaches for dynamic monitoring, and establishing unified clinical guidelines. HER2 has become an essential biomarker for stratifying mCRC patients beyond traditional RAS and BRAF status, underscoring the shift from empiric treatment to biomarker-driven precision medicine. International, multidisciplinary collaboration will be critical to validate emerging biomarkers and refine treatment algorithms globally.

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) represent a significant occupational health challenge among healthcare professionals globally, posing substantial threats to physical and mental well-being as well as work sustainability. Adopting preventive behaviors—including ergonomic postural adjustments, optimized work-rest scheduling, proper use of protective and assistive equipment, and regular physical activity—is essential for mitigating the risk of WMSDs. Guided by the social ecological model, the review synthesized current evidence on the determinants of WMSDs preventive behaviors across four levels: intrapersonal characteristics, work environment conditions, interpersonal support, and policy/institutional factors. The findings suggest that higher educational attainment, favorable health-related behavioral patterns, optimized ergonomic work environments, adoption of supportive collaborative systems, strong organizational support, as well as policy safeguards facilitate preventive behavior adoption. Conversely, limited prevention-related knowledge, low risk perception, insufficient physical activity, excessive workload, lack of appropriate protective equipment, inadequate ergonomic training, a prevailing culture of presenteeism, and inadequate policy implementation constitute significant barriers. Multi-dimensional intervention strategies targeting these determinants are warranted to enhance preventive behaviors, reduce the risk of WMSDs, and strengthen occupational health protection for healthcare professionals.

Objective: To develop a prediction model for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) risk among the elderly, so as to provide a tool for MCI early screening. Methods : From July 2022 to September 2024, a multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling method was used to recruit permanent residents aged ≥65 years from the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as study participants. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, nutritional status, body composition indices, bone mineral density, and handgrip strength were collected through questionnaires and physical examinations. Sarcopenia was defined based on appendicular skeletal muscle index and handgrip strength. MCI was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination, with adjustments for educational level. Participants were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7∶3 ratio. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to screen for predictors and construct an MCI risk prediction model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: A total of 1 641 participants were surveyed, including 755 males (46.01%) and 886 females (53.99%). The majority of participants were aged 65-<75 years, comprising 1 154 individuals (70.32%). MCI was detected in 517 participants, corresponding to a detection rate of 31.51%. Resultsfrom LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that residence (rural, OR = 2.323, 95% CI: 1.682-3.210), age (75-<85 years, OR = 1.405, 95% CI: 1.019-1.937; ≥85 years, OR = 3.655, 95% CI: 1.696-7.875), educational level (primary school, OR = 0.341, 95% CI: 0.247-0.472; junior high school, OR = 0.255, 95% CI: 0.160-0.408; high school, OR = 0.286, 95% CI: 0.154-0.531; bachelor's degree or above, OR = 0.120, 95% CI: 0.041-0.351), history of alcohol consumption (yes, OR = 3.216, 95% CI: 2.164-4.779), risk of malnutrition (yes, OR = 1.464, 95% CI: 1.064-2.014), sarcopenia (yes, OR = 3.197, 95% CI: 2.332-4.385), and waist-to-hip ratio (abnormal, OR = 1.540, 95% CI: 1.159-2.048) were identified as predictive factors for MCI among the elderly. In the training set, the area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.788, 0.719, and 0.712, respectively. In the validation set, the corresponding values were 0.784, 0.913, and 0.542, respectively. DCA demonstrated that the model provided a higher clinical net benefit for predicting MCI risk when the risk threshold probability ranged from 0.124 to 0.764. Conclusion The prediction model developed in this study demonstrates good discriminative ability and clinical utility, indicating its substantial value for predicting the MCI risk among the elderly.

ObjectiveChronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) is usually diagnosed by gastroscopy and histopathological biopsy. These procedures remain the reference standard, but their invasive nature and resource requirements may limit their use in large-scale population screening and repeated follow-up. A convenient and reproducible method for noninvasive auxiliary screening may help identify individuals who require further endoscopic assessment. Fingertip photoplethysmography (PPG) provides a noninvasive recording of peripheral pulse waves and allows harmonic features to be extracted from the signal. In this study, the so-called meridian-related variables were defined as PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature, rather than as direct measurements of meridian physiology. This study aimed to compare these harmonic parameters between patients with CAG and non-CAG controls, identify parameters that remained different after age adjustment, and develop a multivariable model for noninvasive auxiliary screening and pre-endoscopic risk stratification of CAG. MethodsA total of 343 participants were included, comprising 171 patients with CAG and 172 non-CAG controls. CAG diagnosis was established using gastroscopy and histopathology as the reference standard. Fingertip PPG signals were collected using a PPG-based pulse acquisition device. Eight PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature were extracted for analysis. Between-group differences were first assessed using nonparametric tests. Age-adjusted analyses were then performed to reduce potential confounding by age. The false discovery rate (FDR) method was applied for multiple-comparison correction. A multivariable logistic regression model integrating age and multiple harmonic parameters was constructed. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation performance was assessed using stratified five-fold cross-validation and bootstrap optimism correction. Threshold performance was examined using both a high-specificity strategy and a Youden index-based cutoff. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the model’s net clinical benefit across a range of threshold probabilities. ResultsAll eight harmonic parameters were non-normally distributed. In the univariate analysis, the stomach-labelled harmonic parameter (ST), bladder-labelled harmonic parameter (BL), and liver-labelled harmonic parameter (LR) differed between the CAG and non-CAG groups. After age adjustment and FDR correction, only ST and BL remained statistically significant. Compared with non-CAG controls, patients with CAG showed higher ST values and lower BL values. This finding indicates an associated differential harmonic pattern that was not fully explained by age distribution. However, the discriminative ability of a single harmonic parameter was limited. The best-performing single indicator was ST, with an AUC of 0.652 (95% CI: 0.595-0.707). The multivariable model integrating age and multiple harmonic parameters achieved an AUC of 0.791 (95% CI: 0.743-0.835), representing an improvement of 0.139 over ST alone. In internal validation, stratified five-fold cross-validation yielded a mean AUC of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.715-0.781), and the bootstrap optimism-corrected AUC was 0.748. These results suggest that the model retained moderate discriminative performance after internal validation.At a specificity of at least 95%, the model achieved a sensitivity of only 40.4% (95% CI: 25.7%-49.7%). This high-specificity cutoff may be suboptimal as the preferred threshold for an initial screening setting because of the potential risk of missed CAG cases. The Youden index-based optimal cutoff was 0.419, corresponding to a sensitivity of 80.7% and a specificity of 62.8%. This threshold may better match the practical aim of noninvasive auxiliary screening, where sensitivity is usually prioritized to reduce missed cases. Decision curve analysis showed that, within a threshold probability range of 10%-55%, the model provided higher net clinical benefit than the reference strategies of recommending gastroscopy for all participants or for none. ConclusionPatients with CAG showed associated harmonic differences in fingertip PPG-derived features, mainly characterized by higher ST and lower BL values after age adjustment and FDR correction. Compared with a single harmonic parameter, the multivariable model showed better overall discrimination and retained moderate internal validation performance. These findings suggest that PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature may provide auxiliary information for noninvasive auxiliary screening and front-line triage before gastroscopic confirmation in CAG. The present results support further validation rather than immediate clinical implementation. External validation in independent, multicenter, and preferably prospective screening cohorts is needed to assess the model’s generalizability, screening performance, and potential clinical utility.

ObjectiveChronic atrophic gastritis (CAG) is usually diagnosed by gastroscopy and histopathological biopsy. These procedures remain the reference standard, but their invasive nature and resource requirements may limit their use in large-scale population screening and repeated follow-up. A convenient and reproducible method for noninvasive auxiliary screening may help identify individuals who require further endoscopic assessment. Fingertip photoplethysmography (PPG) provides a noninvasive recording of peripheral pulse waves and allows harmonic features to be extracted from the signal. In this study, the so-called meridian-related variables were defined as PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature, rather than as direct measurements of meridian physiology. This study aimed to compare these harmonic parameters between patients with CAG and non-CAG controls, identify parameters that remained different after age adjustment, and develop a multivariable model for noninvasive auxiliary screening and pre-endoscopic risk stratification of CAG. MethodsA total of 343 participants were included, comprising 171 patients with CAG and 172 non-CAG controls. CAG diagnosis was established using gastroscopy and histopathology as the reference standard. Fingertip PPG signals were collected using a PPG-based pulse acquisition device. Eight PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature were extracted for analysis. Between-group differences were first assessed using nonparametric tests. Age-adjusted analyses were then performed to reduce potential confounding by age. The false discovery rate (FDR) method was applied for multiple-comparison correction. A multivariable logistic regression model integrating age and multiple harmonic parameters was constructed. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and the area under the curve (AUC). Internal validation performance was assessed using stratified five-fold cross-validation and bootstrap optimism correction. Threshold performance was examined using both a high-specificity strategy and a Youden index-based cutoff. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the model’s net clinical benefit across a range of threshold probabilities. ResultsAll eight harmonic parameters were non-normally distributed. In the univariate analysis, the stomach-labelled harmonic parameter (ST), bladder-labelled harmonic parameter (BL), and liver-labelled harmonic parameter (LR) differed between the CAG and non-CAG groups. After age adjustment and FDR correction, only ST and BL remained statistically significant. Compared with non-CAG controls, patients with CAG showed higher ST values and lower BL values. This finding indicates an associated differential harmonic pattern that was not fully explained by age distribution. However, the discriminative ability of a single harmonic parameter was limited. The best-performing single indicator was ST, with an AUC of 0.652 (95% CI: 0.595-0.707). The multivariable model integrating age and multiple harmonic parameters achieved an AUC of 0.791 (95% CI: 0.743-0.835), representing an improvement of 0.139 over ST alone. In internal validation, stratified five-fold cross-validation yielded a mean AUC of 0.753 (95% CI: 0.715-0.781), and the bootstrap optimism-corrected AUC was 0.748. These results suggest that the model retained moderate discriminative performance after internal validation.At a specificity of at least 95%, the model achieved a sensitivity of only 40.4% (95% CI: 25.7%-49.7%). This high-specificity cutoff may be suboptimal as the preferred threshold for an initial screening setting because of the potential risk of missed CAG cases. The Youden index-based optimal cutoff was 0.419, corresponding to a sensitivity of 80.7% and a specificity of 62.8%. This threshold may better match the practical aim of noninvasive auxiliary screening, where sensitivity is usually prioritized to reduce missed cases. Decision curve analysis showed that, within a threshold probability range of 10%-55%, the model provided higher net clinical benefit than the reference strategies of recommending gastroscopy for all participants or for none. ConclusionPatients with CAG showed associated harmonic differences in fingertip PPG-derived features, mainly characterized by higher ST and lower BL values after age adjustment and FDR correction. Compared with a single harmonic parameter, the multivariable model showed better overall discrimination and retained moderate internal validation performance. These findings suggest that PPG-derived harmonic parameters labelled according to meridian nomenclature may provide auxiliary information for noninvasive auxiliary screening and front-line triage before gastroscopic confirmation in CAG. The present results support further validation rather than immediate clinical implementation. External validation in independent, multicenter, and preferably prospective screening cohorts is needed to assess the model’s generalizability, screening performance, and potential clinical utility.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effects of Chaihu and Longgu Mulitang （CLMT） on hippocampal neural damage in the mouse model of depression via the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase （ERK）/cAMP-response element-binding protein （CREB） signaling pathway. MethodsSeventy-eight male C57BL/6 mice were randomly allocated into normal control， model， low/medium/high-dose （2.89， 5.78， and 11.56 g·kg^-1， respectively） CLMT， and paroxetine （10 mg·kg^-1） groups. A depression model was established by chronic unpredictable mild stress （CUMS） combined with social isolation. Behavioral tests were carried out to evaluate depressive-like behaviors. Hematoxylin-eosin staining and Nissl staining were performed to assess hippocampal morphology and neuronal damage. Immunofluorescence was employed to detect glial fibrillary acidic protein （GFAP） and ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 （Iba1）. Real-time PCR was employed to measure the mRNA levels of ERK and CREB. Western blot was employed to determine the expression of ERK/CREB pathway proteins and brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF） in the hippocampal tissue. Molecular Operating Environment （MOE） software was used for molecular docking to evaluate the interactions between CLMT components and target proteins. ResultsCompared with the normal control group， the model group showed decreased sucrose preference （P0.01）， increased tail-suspension immobility time （P0.01）， decreased activity in the central region of the open field test （P0.01）， and decreased activity in the middle and open-arm region of the elevated plus maze test （P0.01）. The hippocampal area in the model group showed wrinkled cells and a reduction in the number of cells， neurons with reduced sizes and Nissl bodies， enhanced fluorescence intensity of GFAP and Iba1 （P0.01）， and down-regulated expression of phosphorylated （p）-ERK， p-CREB， and BDNF （P0.05， P0.01） and mRNA levels of ERK and CREB （P0.01）. Compared with the model group， the CLMT group showed increased body weight （P0.05， P0.01）， restored cell morphology， with only a small number of ruptured cells， normal neuronal structure and morphology with obvious nuclei and abundant Nissl bodies， weakened fluorescence intensity of GFAP and Iba1 （P0.05， P0.01）， up-regulated mRNA levels of ERK and CREB （P0.05， P0.01） and protein levels of phosphorylated （p）-ERK， p-CREB， and BDNF in the hippocampal tissue （P0.05， P0.01）. The results of molecular docking indicated that nine active ingredients in CLMT had good binding affinity with ERK and CREB. ConclusionCLMT may ameliorate the hippocampal nerve injury in the mouse model of depression by regulating the ERK/CREB pathway.

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine and metabolic disorder affecting a substantial proportion of women of reproductive age. It is frequently associated with ovulatory dysfunction, infertility, and an increased risk of chronic metabolic diseases. A hallmark pathological feature of PCOS is the arrest of follicular development, closely linked to impaired intercellular communication between the oocyte and surrounding granulosa cells. Transzonal projections (TZPs) are specialized cytoplasmic extensions derived from granulosa cells that penetrate the zona pellucida to establish direct contact with the oocyte. These structures serve as essential conduits for the transfer of metabolites, signaling molecules (e.g., cAMP, cGMP), and regulatory factors (e.g., microRNAs, growth differentiation factors), thereby maintaining meiotic arrest, facilitating metabolic cooperation, and supporting gene expression regulation in the oocyte. The proper formation and maintenance of TZPs depend on the cytoskeletal integrity of granulosa cells and the regulated expression of key connexins, particularly CX37 and CX43. Recent studies have revealed that in PCOS, TZPs exhibit significant structural and functional abnormalities. Contributing factors—such as hyperandrogenism, insulin resistance, oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, and dysregulation of critical signaling pathways (including PI3K/Akt, Wnt/β‑catenin, and MAPK/ERK)—collectively impair TZP integrity and reduce their formation. This disruption in granulosa-oocyte communication compromises oocyte quality and contributes to follicular arrest and anovulation. This review provides a comprehensive overview of TZP biology, including their formation mechanisms, molecular composition, and stage-specific dynamics during folliculogenesis. We highlight the pathological alterations in TZPs observed in PCOS and elucidate how endocrine and metabolic disturbances—particularly androgen excess and hyperinsulinemia—downregulate CX43 expression and impair gap junction function, thereby exacerbating ovarian microenvironmental dysfunction. Furthermore, we explore emerging therapeutic strategies aimed at preserving or restoring TZP integrity. Anti-androgen therapies (e.g., spironolactone, flutamide), insulin sensitizers (e.g., metformin), and GLP-1 receptor agonists (e.g., liraglutide) have shown potential in modulating connexin expression and enhancing granulosa-oocyte communication. In addition, agents such as melatonin, AMPK activators, and GDF9/BMP15 analogs may promote TZP formation and improve oocyte competence. Advanced technologies, including ovarian organoid models and CRISPR-based gene editing, offer promising platforms for studying TZP regulation and developing targeted interventions. In summary, TZPs are indispensable for maintaining follicular homeostasis, and their disruption plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of PCOS-related folliculogenesis failure. Targeting TZP integrity represents a promising therapeutic avenue in PCOS management and warrants further mechanistic and translational investigation.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the clinical characteristics and influential factors of drug-induced liver injury （DILI） in children caused by intravenous azithromycin. METHODS Clinical data of 157 DILI pediatric cases caused by intravenous azithromycin， reported by the Hengshui Adverse Drug Reaction Monitoring Center from January 2015 to January 2025， were collected as the observation group. Clinical data of pediatric patients who received intravenous azithromycin but did not develop DILI during the same period at Hengshui People’s Hospital were collected in a 1∶1 ratio to serve as the control group. The clinical classification， severity and prognosis of DILI in pediatric patients from the observation group were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen the independent risk factors for DILI in children caused by intravenous azithromycin. RESULTS Among 157 DILI cases， 92 cases （58.60%） had hepatocellular injury-type， 51 cases （32.48%） had cholestatic-type， and 14 cases （8.92%） had mixed-type. DILI severity was grade 1 in 117 cases （74.52%）， grade 2 in 33 cases （21.02%）， and grade 3 in 7 cases （4.46%）. Liver function had all recovered after stopping medication and symptomatic treatment. Combined with acetaminophen [OR＝3.769， 95%CI （1.615， 8.235）， P＝0.021]， daily dose of azithromycin＞10 mg/kg [OR＝ 2.237， 95%CI （1.075， 4.655）， P＝0.034] were independent risk factors for DILI in children caused by intravenous azithromycin. CONCLUSIONS Hepatocellular injury-type and cholestatic-type are relatively common in children with DILI caused by intravenous azithromycin， with mild severity being predominant and showing a favorable prognosis. Combination with acetaminophen and daily dose＞10 mg/kg are independent risk factors for azithromycin-induced DILI in children.

Objective: To investigate the status of drug resistance before anti-retroviral therapy among newly dignosed HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, so as to provide the evidence for improving the anti-retroviral therapy effect of AIDS. Methods: HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years who were newly dignosed in Yangzhou City from 2021 to 2024 and did not receive anti-retroviral therapy were selected. Basic information were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Blood samples were collected to determine CD4+T lymphocyte (CD4 cell) counts and HIV-1 viral load. Following nucleic acid extraction, the pol gene region was amplified using reverse transcription and nested PCR, and subsequently subjected to Sanger sequencing. The resulting sequences were uploaded to the Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database to analyze drug resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), protease inhibitors (PIs), and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Results: Totally 404 blood samples from HIV/AIDS patients were collected, with successful sequencing of the pol gene region in 341 cases. Among them, 253 (74.19%) were males and 88 (25.81%) were females, with a mean age of (62.48±7.60) years. A total of 152 cases (44.57%) had CD4 cell counts below 200 cells/μL, and 296 cases (86.80%) had HIV-1 viral loads exceeding 5 000 copies/mL. A total of 87 cases exhibited drug resistance-associated mutations, corresponding to a mutation rate of 25.51%. The predominant mutation site was V179, with a mutation rate of 17.01%. A total of 29 cases exhibited resistance to at least one drug, resulting in a resistance rate of 8.50%. The resistance rates to NNRTIs, PIs, and NRTIs were 5.57%, 2.93%, and 1.17%, respectively. The HIV/AIDS patients exhibited varying degrees of resistance to 13 anti-retroviral drugs, with low- or intermediate-level drug resistance being predominant. High-level drug resistance cases were observed against NNRTIs such as nevirapine and efavirenz. Conclusions The drug resistance rate before anti-retroviral therapy among newly dignosed HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years in Yangzhou City was at a moderate level. The predominant resistance mutation was observed at V179 site, with NNRTIs resistance being most prevalent, primarily demonstrating low- or intermediate-level drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS: Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
Humans ; Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Disability-Adjusted Life Years ; Male ; Female ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Kidney Diseases/epidemiology* ; Bayes Theorem ; Adult ; Aged ; Global Health ; Quality-Adjusted Life Years