1.Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Neoadjuvant Immunochemotherapy in Patients with Stage IB-IIIB Non-small Cell Lung Cancer.
Zihao LI ; Xin WANG ; Yulong WANG ; Zhuoer CUI ; Xin WANG ; Xiao LI ; Guanchao JIANG ; Xun WANG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(6):415-426
BACKGROUND:
Neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy has emerged as an indispensable therapeutic modality for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, its clinical application experience remains limited, and the associations between various clinical factors and treatment benefits remain undefined. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy in patients with stage IB-IIIB NSCLC in a real-world setting, analyze survival outcomes among subgroups with diverse clinical characteristics, and identify potential clinical predictive factors for pathological response.
METHODS:
This study included patients with stage IB-IIIB NSCLC who underwent radical lung resection after 2-4 cycles of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy at Peking University People's Hospital between August 2019 and March 2024. Medical records and follow-up information were collected to analyze therapeutic response, adverse events and survival outcomes. Logistic analysis was used to identify clinical predictors of pathological response.
RESULTS:
Among 183 enrolled patients, 116 (63.4%) were stage III. Grade 3-4 immune-related adverse events (irAEs) occurred in 39 (21.3%) patients. Radiographic complete response (CR) or partial response (PR) was achieved in 118 (64.5%) patients. R0 resection was achieved in 180 (98.4%) patients. Major pathologic response (MPR) was observed in 107 (58.5%) patients, with 78 (42.6%) achieving pathologic complete response (pCR). Squamous cell carcinoma and radiographic objective response were associated with pathological response (pCR/MPR). With a median follow-up of 22.1 [interquartile range (IQR): 18.3-32.2] months, the 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 82.5% and 90.4%, respectively. Achievement of pathological response (pCR/MPR) was correlated with prolonged survival outcomes.
CONCLUSIONS
Neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy is safe and effective for patients with stage IB-IIIB NSCLC. Patients achieving pCR or MPR exhibit significantly better survival benefits from neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy. Squamous cell carcinoma and radiographic objective response can serve as clinical predictors of pathological response.
Humans
;
Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/mortality*
;
Male
;
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Neoadjuvant Therapy/adverse effects*
;
Aged
;
Neoplasm Staging
;
Adult
;
Immunotherapy/adverse effects*
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Retrospective Studies
2.Trend of Death and Years of Life Lost Caused by Lung Cancer in Handan, 2017-2023.
Nianzhen FANG ; Yang ZHAO ; Yang YANG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(6):427-433
BACKGROUND:
Lung cancer ranks as the foremost cause of cancer-related deaths in China, significantly undermining population health and longevity. By analyzing the trends of death and years of life lost caused by lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023, data support is provided for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies.
METHODS:
Lung cancer death data in Handan during 2017-2023 were collected. Excel 2010, SPSS 26.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 were used to analyze the mortality rate of lung cancer, average annual percentage change (AAPC), cause eliminated life expectancy (CELE), potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs), Fulfillment index, potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), and standardized potential years of life lost rate (SPYLLR).
RESULTS:
The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=-7.10%, P<0.01). The CELE of lung cancer increased by 2.49 years (AAPC=0.48%, P<0.05). The life loss rate decreased by 21.43% (AAPC=-4.61%, P<0.05). The Fulfillment index by lung cancer increased with the growth of age from 2017 to 2023. The PYLL, PYLLR, standardized potential years of life lost (SPYLL) and SPYLLR of lung cancer during 2017 to 2023 were 134,219.75 person years, 2.03‰, 98,735.63 person years, and 1.49‰, respectively. The annual PYLLR and SPYLLR showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=-6.34%, -9.34%, respectively, P<0.01).
CONCLUSIONS
The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend, and the impact of lung cancer on life expectancy decreased. The mortality rates of lung cancer showed significant differences among different ages and genders. It is necessary to take good measures to prevent and control lung cancer in males and higher age groups.
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Life Expectancy/trends*
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Adult
;
Young Adult
3.Clinical Characteristics, MAML2 Gene Rearrangement and Prognosis of Pulmonary Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma.
Jianrong BAI ; Meng YAN ; Lingchuan GUO ; Zhe LEI ; Weishuo LIU ; Zigui ZOU ; Jiao LI ; Yushuang ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(6):441-449
BACKGROUND:
Primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma (PMEC) is an exceedingly rare malignancy originating from bronchial submucosal glands, accounting for <0.2% of lung cancers. Histologically characterized by a triphasic composition of mucinous, epidermoid, and intermediate cells, PMEC is classified into low-grade (favorable prognosis) and high-grade (aggressive behavior) subtypes. This study aimed to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic indicators of PMEC.
METHODS:
Clinicopathological, radiological, molecular, and survival data from 26 PMEC patients were retrospectively analyzed, including immunohistochemical profiles and MAML2 rearrangement status, supplemented by literature review.
RESULTS:
The cohort comprised 14 males and 12 females (mean age: 55.6 years). Eight patients (30.8%) were smokers, and 19 (73.1%) presented with symptoms. Central tumors predominated (n=19, 73.1%) versus peripheral lesions (n=7, 26.9%). Computed tomography (CT) imaging consistently revealed hypo-to-isodense masses/nodules. Pathologically, 19 cases were low-grade and 7 high-grade. Immunohistochemically, the tumor cells were positive for CK7, P40, P63 and CK5/6, and the Ki-67 index ranged from 2% to 70%. MAML2 rearrangement was detected in 52.4% (11/21) of tested cases. Clinical staging distribution: stage I (n=14), stage II (n=8), stage III (n=3), stage IV (n=1). Treatment modalities: radical surgery alone (n=13), surgery with adjuvant chemotherapy (n=11), chemoradiotherapy (n=1), and conservative management (n=1). With a median follow-up of 57 months, 6 patients (23.1%) died. Prognostic analysis demonstrated: (1) Significantly inferior survival in high-grade versus low-grade groups (P<0.05); (2) Lymph node metastasis, advanced stage, Ki-67>20%, and high-grade histology significantly correlated with reduced overall survival (P<0.05); (3) Lymph node metastasis constituted an independent poor prognostic factor (HR=12.73, 95%CI: 1.22-132.96).
CONCLUSIONS
PMEC exhibits distinct clinicopathological features, with MAML2 rearrangement present in approximately half of cases. Lymph node metastasis, advanced stage, high Ki-67 proliferation index, and high-grade histology are key determinants of poor prognosis, with lymph node metastasis serving as an independent risk factor.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Carcinoma, Mucoepidermoid/mortality*
;
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Trans-Activators/genetics*
;
Prognosis
;
Adult
;
Gene Rearrangement
;
Aged
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Transcription Factors/genetics*
;
DNA-Binding Proteins/genetics*
4.Association of physical activity level and all-cause mortality among stroke survivors: evidence from NHANES 2007-2018.
Fude LIU ; Xiangning HAN ; Yawen CHENG ; Ning ZHU ; Shiliang JIANG ; Jiahao LI ; Jin ZHAO ; Guogang LUO
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;30():27-27
BACKGROUND:
Post-stroke disability diminishes the physical activity (PA) level of survivors, potentially affecting their long-term prognosis. This study endeavors to explore the correlation between daily PA level and the all-cause mortality in patients with a history of stoke in the United States.
METHODS:
Data of stroke survivors were sourced from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2018. The population was stratified into three groups based on their PA level. Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank tests for significance was used for survival analysis. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality. Subgroup analysis was conducted to strengthen the results.
RESULTS:
A total of 1395 participants were recruited, comprising 679 males and 716 females, with a median age of 68 years. Based on their PA levels, 779 individuals were classified as inactive, 156 as insufficiently active, and 460 as sufficiently active. Following a median observation period of 59 months, there were 476 recorded deaths, with 349, 47, and 80 cases in the three respective groups. Compared to the inactive group, the HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause mortality in participants who were insufficiently active and sufficiently active were 0.58 (0.40, 0.84) and 0.47 (0.33, 0.67), respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve revealed a significant difference in overall survival between the three groups, as confirmed by the log-rank test (P < 0.0001). Subgroup analysis further validated our results and demonstrated that the protective impact of PA on stroke prognosis varies according to distinct characteristics.
CONCLUSIONS
The results indicate that increased levels of PA are associated with a protective effect on long-term mortality among stroke survivors. Further prospective longitudinal studies are necessary to elucidate the optional PA level and special exercise guideline targeting this population.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Exercise
;
Middle Aged
;
Nutrition Surveys
;
Stroke/mortality*
;
United States/epidemiology*
;
Survivors/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Mortality
5.Dietary antioxidant nutrients intake and pneumonia mortality in Japanese men and women: the Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study.
Ling ZHA ; Tetsuhisa KITAMURA ; Taiki YAMAJI ; Motoki IWASAKI ; Manami INOUE ; Shoichiro TSUGANE ; Norie SAWADA
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;30():68-68
BACKGROUND:
Pneumonia is a major global public health concern. Taking antioxidant nutrients has attracted attention for their potential role in reducing pneumonia mortality. Although studies in Western countries have evaluated this association, the current evidence remains controversial, and research in Asia remains limited. This cohort study investigated the association between dietary antioxidant nutrients intake and pneumonia mortality in Japanese population.
METHODS:
Data were collected from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study between 1995 and 1998, with follow-up until the end of 2018. The intake of antioxidant nutrients was assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The Cox proportional hazard model was employed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and p-trends for pneumonia mortality, adjusting for potential confounding factors including age, area, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, postmenopausal status, occupation, coffee intake, green tea intake, antihypertensive medication use, vitamin-supplement use, and total energy intake.
RESULTS:
The analysis included data from 39,850 men and 46,705 women. Over a median follow-up of 20.8 years, 813 men and 477 women died from pneumonia. The multivariable model revealed that a higher intake of cryptoxanthin (p-trend = 0.027 in men; 0.019 in women), lycopene (p-trend = 0.016 in women), vitamin C (p-trend = 0.022 in men), and vitamin E (p-trend = 0.031 in women) was significantly associated with a reduction in pneumonia mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
Higher dietary intake of cryptonxanthin, lycopene, and vitamins C and E was associated with a low risk of pneumonia mortality in Japanese adults.
Humans
;
Male
;
Japan/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Prospective Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Pneumonia/mortality*
;
Antioxidants/administration & dosage*
;
Diet/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Nutrients
;
East Asian People
6.Prognostic analysis of laparoscopic simultaneous radical cystectomy and nephroureterectomy.
Shenmo LI ; Dandan SU ; Jiyu LIN ; Haodong SONG ; Lulin MA ; Xiaofei HOU ; Guoliang WANG ; Hongxian ZHANG ; Jianfei YE ; Shudong ZHANG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2025;57(5):961-966
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the safety and prognostic factors influencing the treatment of upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) combined with bladder cancer (BCa) by laparoscopic simultaneous radical cystectomy and nephroureterectomy (RCNU).
METHODS:
The clinical data of patients admitted to Peking University Third Hospital for laparoscopic RCNU surgery from January 2009 to September 2023 were analyzed retrospectively. Based on the same gender, age (±5 years), history of uroepithelial tumors, underlying diseases, T-stage, N-stage, M-stage, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, Charlson comorbidity index, and body mass index (BMI) (±5), 34 patients with RCNU were matched 1 ∶1 with patients with bladder cancer who underwent laparoscopic radical cystectomy (RC) alone. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate patient survival, and Cox proportional regression risk model was used to analyze clinical factors affecting prognosis.
RESULTS:
Of the 68 patients enrolled, the follow-up rate was 100% with a median follow-up time of 27.0 (11.7, 60.2) months. Comparison of intraoperative conditions (including operation time, estimated intraoperative bleeding, intra-operative blood transfusion, etc.) between the two groups of patients showed no significant difference (P>0.05). Comparison of preoperative creatinine and postoperative creatinine between the two groups of patients showed significant differences (P < 0.05). The perioperative Clavien grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ complication rates were 2.9% (1/34) in the RC group and 5.9% (2/34) in the RCNU group. There was no significant difference in terms of perioperative complications between the two groups. Overall survival was significantly lower in the patients receiving RCNU compared with the matched group receiving RC alone (P < 0.05). Cox regression analysis suggested that two factors, high N stage and high postoperative creatinine, were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients in the 2 groups (P < 0.05).
CONCLUSION
The overall survival prognosis of patients undergoing RCNU surgery was worse compared with laparoscopic RC surgery alone during the same period. There was no clinically significant difference between the two groups in terms of operation time, intraoperative bleeding, and perioperative complications, and there were clinically significant differences in preoperative renal function and post-operative renal function.
Humans
;
Laparoscopy/methods*
;
Nephroureterectomy/methods*
;
Cystectomy/methods*
;
Prognosis
;
Male
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Female
;
Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
7.Identification of prognosis-related key genes in hepatocellular carcinoma based on bioinformatics analysis.
Qian XIE ; Yingshan ZHU ; Ge HUANG ; Yue ZHAO
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(2):167-180
OBJECTIVES:
Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most common primary malignant tumors with the third highest mortality rate worldwide. This study aims to identify key genes associated with hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis using the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and provide a theoretical basis for discovering novel prognostic biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma.
METHODS:
Hepatocellular carcinoma-related datasets were retrieved from the GEO database. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified using the GEO2R tool. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses were performed using the Database for Annotation, Visualization, and Integrated Discovery (DAVID). A protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed using the Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes/Proteins (STRING), and key genes were identified using Cytoscape software. The University of Alabama at Birmingham Cancer Data Analysis Resource (UALCAN) was used to analyze the expression levels of key genes in normal and hepatocellular carcinoma tissues, as well as their associations with pathological grade, clinical stage, and patient survival. The Human Protein Atlas (THPA) was used to further validate the impact of key genes on overall survival. Expression levels of key genes in the blood of hepatocellular carcinoma patients were evaluated using the expression atlas of blood-based biomarkers in the early diagnosis of cancers (BBCancer).
RESULTS:
A total of 78 DEGs were identified from the GEO database. GO and KEGG analyses indicated that these genes may contribute to hepatocellular carcinoma progression by promoting cell division and regulating protein kinase activity. Sixteen key genes were screened via Cytoscape and validated using UALCAN and THPA. These genes were overexpressed in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues and were associated with disease progression and poor prognosis. Finally, BBCancer analysis showed that ASPM and NCAPG were also elevated in the blood of hepatocellular carcinoma patients.
CONCLUSIONS
This study identified 16 key genes as potential prognostic biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma, among which ASPM and NCAPG may serve as promising blood-based markers for hepatocellular carcinoma.
Humans
;
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/mortality*
;
Liver Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Computational Biology/methods*
;
Protein Interaction Maps/genetics*
;
Biomarkers, Tumor/genetics*
;
Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic
;
Gene Expression Profiling
;
Gene Ontology
;
Databases, Genetic
8.Predictive value of preoperative L3-SMI, AGR, and PNI for overall survival in patients undergoing radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer.
Kaiqiang XIE ; Wan FENG ; Zhuxian LIU ; Hao LEI ; Heli LIU ; Mimi TANG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(2):204-214
OBJECTIVES:
Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, posing a serious threat to public health. Prognostication of overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing radical gastrectomy remains a clinical priority. Evidence suggests that preoperative nutritional and inflammatory status correlated with postoperative outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic value of the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra (L3-SMI) as a trichotomous variable and to compare the performance of commonly used nutritional and inflammation-related indicators in predicting postoperative survival in GC patients.
METHODS:
This retrospective study analyzed clinical data of patients who underwent radical gastrectomy with neoadjuvant chemotherapy between 2011 and 2018 at the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. L3-SMI was measured by preoperative CT, and 8 preoperative nutritional/inflammatory indices were calculated from the latest laboratory tests before surgery: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV), albumin-globulin ratio (AGR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI). L3-SMI was categorized into 3 groups using X-tiler software. ROC curves were used to determine optimal cut-off values for the other eight indices. Kaplan-Meier curves and univariate/multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between variables and OS. Concordance index (C-index) and subgroup analysis assessed predictive performance and consistency across patient subgroups.
RESULTS:
A total of 546 patients were included, with a minimum follow-up time of 36 months. Kaplan-Meier and univariate analysis showed that L3-SMI and the 8 indicators were significantly associated with OS (all P<0.01). After adjusting for age, gender, tumor site, differentiation, pTNM stage, type of surgery, anemia, CEA, and AFP, multifactorial Cox analysis revealed that L3-SMI (HR=0.676, 95% CI 0.523 to 0.872), AGR (HR=0.611, 95% CI 0.452 to 0.827), and PNI (HR=0.590, 95% CI 0.418 to 0.833) were independent predictors of OS. The full model confirmed the independent prognostic roles of L3-SMI, AGR, and PNI. Among all indicators, PNI had the highest C-index for 1-year OS prediction (0.632, 95% CI 0.568 to 0.695), while AGR showed the best performance at 3 years (0.585, 95% CI 0.548 to 0.622) and 5 years (0.578, 95% CI 0.542 to 0.613). Subgroup analysis indicated that higher L3-SMI, AGR, and PNI were associated with lower mortality risk in patients aged<65 years, with lower gastric tumors, poor differentiation, stage III pTNM, or who underwent subtotal gastrectomy.
CONCLUSIONS
Compared with other indicators, preoperative nutritional markers such as L3-SMI, AGR, and PNI demonstrated superior prognostic value for OS in gastric cancer patients undergoing radical gastrectomy. Assessing these indices can help identify patients at high risk of poor prognosis, thereby guiding targeted nutritional interventions and potentially improving survival outcomes.
Humans
;
Stomach Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Gastrectomy/methods*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Female
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Prognosis
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Nutritional Status
;
Inflammation
;
Predictive Value of Tests
;
Preoperative Period
;
Survival Rate
9.A prognostic model for multiple myeloma based on lipid metabolism related genes.
Zhengjiang LI ; Liang ZHAO ; Fangming SHI ; Jiaojiao GUO ; Wen ZHOU
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(4):517-530
OBJECTIVES:
Multiple myeloma (MM) is a highly heterogeneous hematologic malignancy, with disease progression driven by cytogenetic abnormalities and a complex bone marrow microenvironment. This study aims to construct a prognostic model for MM based on transcriptomic data and lipid metabolism related genes (LRGs), and to identify potential drug targets for high-risk patients to support clinical decision-making.
METHODS:
In this study, 2 transcriptomic datasets covering 985 newly diagnosed MM patients were retrieved from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Univariate Cox regression and 101 machine learning algorithms were used for gene selection. An LRG-based prognostic model was constructed using Stepwise Cox (both directions) and random survival forest (RSF) algorithms. The association between the prognostic score and clinical events was evaluated, and model performance was assessed using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the C-index. The added predictive value of combining prognostic scores with clinical variables and staging systems was also analyzed. Differentially expressed genes between high- and low-risk groups were identified using limma and clusterProfiler and subjected to pathway enrichment analysis. Drug sensitivity analysis was conducted using the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) database and oncoPredict to identify potential therapeutic targets for high-risk patients. The functional role of key LRGs in the model was validated via in vitro cell experiments.
RESULTS:
An LRG-based prognostic model (LRG17) was successfully developed using transcriptomic data and machine learning. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.962, 0.912, and 0.842 for 3-, 5-, and 7-year survival, respectively. Patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups, with high-risk patients showing significantly shorter overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) (both P<0.001) and worse clinical profiles (e.g., lower albumin, higher β2-microglobulin and lactate dehydrogenase levels). Enrichment analysis revealed that high-risk patients were significantly enriched for pathways related to chromosome segregation and mitosis, whereas low-risk patients were enriched for immune response and immune cell activation pathways. Drug screening suggested that AURKA inhibitor BMS-754807 and FGFR3 inhibitor I-BET-762 may be more effective in high-risk patients. Functional assays demonstrated that silencing of key LRG PLA2G4A significantly inhibited cell viability and induced apoptosis.
CONCLUSIONS
LRGs serve as promising biomarkers for prognosis prediction and risk stratification in MM. The overexpression of chromosomal instability-related and high-risk genetic event-associated genes in high-risk patients may explain their poorer outcomes. Given the observed resistance to bortezomib and lenalidomide in high-risk patients, combination therapies involving BMS-754807 or I-BET-762 may represent effective alternatives.
Humans
;
Multiple Myeloma/mortality*
;
Prognosis
;
Lipid Metabolism/genetics*
;
Transcriptome
;
Machine Learning
;
Male
;
Female
;
Gene Expression Profiling
;
Algorithms
10.Analysis and projection of the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China based on the GBD database.
Yexun SONG ; Xiajing LIU ; Yongquan ZHANG ; Heqing LI
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(4):675-683
OBJECTIVES:
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
METHODS:
Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050.
RESULTS:
In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Adult
;
Incidence
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Adolescent
;
Databases, Factual
;
Young Adult
;
Cost of Illness
;
Child
;
Bayes Theorem

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