1.External ocular manifestations among patients diagnosed with Coronavirus disease 2019 in a referral center in the Philippines.
Alyssa Louise B. Pejana-Paulino ; Aramis B. Torrefranca Jr. ; Nilo Vincent DG. Florcruz ; Ma. Dominga B. Padilla
Acta Medica Philippina 2026;60(1):69-77
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
The global pandemic caused by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected millions, with growing evidence of the potential role of ocular tissues in viral transmission. At the time of writing, local data regarding the phenomenon was limited. This study investigated external ocular manifestations in patients with COVID-19 at a referral center in the Philippines, examined correlations between demographics, systemic manifestations, and laboratory results with ocular manifestations, and determined their timing relative to systemic symptoms.
METHODSThis single-center, descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out from December 8 to 18, 2020 at the adult COVID-19 wards of the Philippine General Hospital involving 72 participants. Data collection involved relevant clinical history taking and performing gross eye examination. The prevalence of ocular manifestations was described with 95% confidence intervals. Correlations between ocular manifestations and quantitative variables were analyzed with point-biserial correlation, and associations with qualitative variables were tested using chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests.
RESULTSAmong participants, 31.9% presented with ocular manifestations with foreign body sensation as the most prevalent ocular symptom (11.1%) and conjunctival hyperemia as the most prevalent ocular finding (19.4%). The median age of patients with ocular manifestations was 41 years old with a higher prevalence in the male population (73.9%, CI=95%, p=0.001). No significant correlation was observed between presence of external ocular manifestations and the different systemic and ocular co-morbidities as well as with COVID-19 clinical classification. Among those who experienced symptoms, majority (29.2%) of the patients experienced systemic symptoms prior to the onset of ocular symptoms. Ocular complaints may present as the sole manifestation (13.9%). Several laboratory parameters were measured and only temperature and AST levels showed a low positive correlation with the presence of ocular manifestations.
CONCLUSIONOcular manifestations occur in roughly one third of patients with COVID-19 based on this study population. With some individuals presenting with ocular signs or symptoms as the initial and sole manifestation, healthcare practitioners must exercise caution and remain vigilant in managing patients who present as such. At the time of writing, this is the first local study investigating the different external ocular manifestations in patients with COVID-19. There is a need to pursue more robust studies and conduct more local investigations which will guide both ophthalmologists and other practitioners in strengthening existing guidelines regarding precautionary practices, clinical diagnosis, and management of COVID-19 patients.
Human ; Sars-cov-2 ; Covid-19 ; Philippines ; Adult ; Association ; Classification ; Collection ; Confidence Intervals ; Coronavirus ; Cross-sectional Studies ; Data Collection ; Demography ; Diagnosis ; Disease ; Exercise ; Eye ; Foreign Bodies ; History ; Hospitals ; Hospitals, General ; Hyperemia ; Laboratories ; Male ; Morbidity ; Ophthalmologists ; Pandemics ; Patients ; Population ; Prevalence ; Referral And Consultation ; Role ; Sensation ; Temperature ; Time ; Tissues ; Volition ; World Health Organization ; Writing
2.A bibliometric analysis of research productivity on Kawasaki disease in Southeast Asia: Trend and socioeconomic drivers.
Maria Llaine J. CALLANTA ; Karol Ann T. BALDO
Acta Medica Philippina 2026;60(2):33-40
OBJECTIVES
The increasing prevalence of Kawasaki disease in Southeast Asia (SEA) and its potential relation with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection resulted in heightened interest in KD in the region, thus, this paper aimed to determine the trend and the socioeconomic facilitators of scientific productivity of KD research within the region. Specifically, this article determined the number of publication and citations related to KD per country, institution, and journal. We also explored the networks of countries within the region to the rest of the world and the keywords mostly associated with KD research in the region. Lastly, correlation of these bibliometric indices with socioeconomic factors in the region was analyzed.
METHODSA literature search of KD papers in SEA was performed using Scopus database. We obtained bibliographic data from the available literature and visualized network of existing collaborations and keywords using VOSviewer software.
RESULTSA total of 196 papers were included in the study. Bibliometric analysis showed a rising trend in publication within the region, most of which were from institutions in Singapore and Thailand. The most common topics on KD studies included clinical features, complications, treatment, and comorbidities.
Country characteristics such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, research and development (R&D) expenditure (% GDP), and number of physician and R&D researchers were positively correlated with bibliometric indices of KD research in SEA. Moreover, number of international linkages was significantly associated with KD research productivity in the region.
CONCLUSIONIn summary, we showed an increasing trend of KD research in SEA. Funding allocation and capacity building are necessary to strengthen research productivity within the region.
Asia ; Asia, Southeastern ; Bibliometrics ; Capacity Building ; Coronavirus ; Covid-19 ; Database ; Disease ; Efficiency ; Gross Domestic Product ; Guanosine Diphosphate ; Infection ; Infections ; Literature ; Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome ; Paper ; Physicians ; Prevalence ; Publications ; Research ; Research Personnel ; Rest ; Singapore ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Software ; Thailand ; Therapeutics
3.Clinical, metabolic, and autoimmune characteristics of newly diagnosed young Filipino adults with diabetes mellitus.
Elizabeth PAZ-PACHECO ; Angelique Bea C. UY ; Angelique Love TIGLAO-GICA ; Anna Elvira S. ARCELLANA ; Aura Bree DAYO-LACDAO ; Cynthia P. CORDERO ; Cecilia A. JIMENO ; Ma. Cecille ANONUEVO-CRUZ ; Noel R. JUBAN
Acta Medica Philippina 2026;60(2):41-49
OBJECTIVES
In Asia, younger individuals (below age 45) are diagnosed to have type 2 diabetes with increased rates of obesity defined by lower BMI yet with greater visceral adiposity (waist circumference and waisthip ratios). The prevalence data on type 1 diabetes is not well established, considered to be low, but is seen to be increasing as well. This changing phenotype therefore, presents a clinical dilemma in terms of correctly classifying diabetes and deciding on the consequent appropriate treatment. Distinguishing type 1 from type 2 diabetes has become more difficult with type 2 diabetes dramatically increasing in young adults and children. This study aims to define the characteristics of diabetes among young adults in the Philippines to provide a basis for appropriate management amidst changes in diabetes phenotypes seen globally.
METHODSIn this cross-sectional analytic study, we characterized the demographic, metabolic, and autoimmune features of diabetes among young adult Filipinos aged 18 to 45 years old consulting at a tertiary referral center in Manila, Philippines. Baseline serum A1c, FBS, 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, insulin, serum C-peptide, insulin autoantibodies, leptin, adiponectin, lipid profile, and thyroid function tests were obtained from the participants and analyzed. The homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) was used to estimate the insulin sensitivity.
RESULTSA total of 348 patients with diabetes were included, with females comprising two-thirds of the participants. The mean age at diagnosis of diabetes was 35.9±7.22 years. The mean BMI was 28.12 kg/m2, with median waist to hip ratio (WHR) of 0·93. Metabolic syndrome was found in 60% of participants and 67.82% were obese by body mass index. The mean A1c was 9.07±2.52%. Good glucose control (A1c less than 7.0%) was seen in 23% of participants while nearly half (48%) had HbA1c which was >9.0%. The median levels of fasting insulin and C-peptide were 12.62 (range 1.33–90.42) mIU/L and 0.78 ng/mL (range 0–16.2), respectively.
Included participants were diagnosed with diabetes within a year and as such, majority did not have any micro- or macrovascular complications. The most common diabetes complication was sensory neuropathy detected by monofilament testing, which was found in 28% of participants, followed by non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy in 13%. A history of previous diabetic ketoacidosis was found in 10 patients (2.87%). Glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) and insulin auto-antibodies were found in 3.2% and 19.3% of participants, respectively. Approximately half (51.73%) of the participants were insulin resistant by HOMA-IR.
CONCLUSIONIn contrast with Caucasians and other Asians, diabetes among young Filipino adults is associated with lower BMI but with a similarly high visceral adiposity as shown by an elevated WHR. Metabolic syndrome with insulin resistance as defined by a variety of indices is predominant. Type 1 diabetes with autoantibodies occur in only a small fraction of this population. Data derived from this work can provide a framework for cluster analysis towards personalized management specific to this population.
Human ; Acids ; Adiponectin ; Adiposity ; Adult ; Aged ; Antibodies ; Asia ; Asian ; Asian Continental Ancestry Group ; Autoantibodies ; Body Mass Index ; C-peptide ; Carboxy-lyases ; Child ; Cluster Analysis ; Demography ; Diabetes Complications ; Diabetes Mellitus ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 ; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ; Diabetic Ketoacidosis ; Diabetic Retinopathy ; Diagnosis ; Fasting ; Female ; Glucose ; Glucose Tolerance Test ; Glutamate Decarboxylase ; Glutamic Acid ; Insulin ; Insulin Resistance ; Ketosis ; Leptin ; Lipids ; Metabolic Syndrome ; Obesity ; Patients ; Peptides ; Phenotype ; Philippines ; Population ; Prevalence ; Serum ; Therapeutics ; Thyroid Gland ; Thyroid Function Tests ; Young Adult
4.Analysis on the prevalence and practices of antibiotic misuse among adult residents of Rodriguez, Rizal: An explanatory sequential mixed methods study.
Joseph Emmanuel M. DELA CRUZ ; Laufred I. HERNANDEZ
Acta Medica Philippina 2026;60(9):33-57
BACKGROUND
Addressing the global public health threat that antimicrobial and antibiotic resistance pose to both the international community and the national health security of the country is of paramount importance. In line with the WHO’s One Health Approach in combating AMR, it is important to recognize and assess the public’s knowledge, attitudes, and practices to better understand the gaps, barriers, issues, and patterns present in terms of antibiotic use.
OBJECTIVEShis study aimed to examine the prevalence and practices of antibiotic misuse in the general population by assessing the knowledge and identifying the attitudes and practices of the adult residents in Rodriguez, Rizal, toward antibiotics.
METHODSAn explanatory mixed-method (quantitative and qualitative) research design was utilized in this study. The research participants involved the adult (18-59 years old) residents of Rodriguez, Rizal, who do not possess a medical background. The quantitative phase involved a cross-sectional survey of 384 residents. The survey questionnaire consisted of four sections: knowledge, attitudes, practices toward antibiotics, and socio-demographic profile. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were performed with Stata version 17. The qualitative phase utilized in-depth semi-structured interviews with nine residents. The data obtained underwent thematic analysis using Microsoft Excel.
RESULTSThe study revealed that most residents were aged 18–29 years (39.06%), male (52.08%), and bachelor’s degree holders (33.85%), with over half earning below ₱10,957 monthly (51.04%). Self-medication with antibiotics (SMA) was highly prevalent (68.23%). Over half demonstrated excellent knowledge (51.56%) and attitude (60.94%), while nearly half (48.18%) exhibited moderate practices. Knowledge showed significant associations with sex, age, education, and socioeconomic status, and a positive linear relationship was observed between knowledge, attitude, and practice, though not between knowledge and practice. Qualitative findings revealed seven major themes, such as reliance on non-traditional information sources, limited awareness of antibiotic risks, healthcare and financial barriers, informal access, and non-adherence to prescriptions, which collectively help to better understand the high prevalence of selfmedication observed quantitatively, and provide context for patterns in knowledge, attitudes, and practices.
CONCLUSIONThis study assessed the knowledge, attitudes, and practices on antibiotic use among residents of Rodriguez, Rizal. Despite high awareness, nearly 70% practiced self-medication, often for viral infections, incomplete regimens, or through informal sources. Interviews revealed that misuse stems from sociocultural norms, economic pressures, and healthcare barriers rather than ignorance. These results underscore the need for stricter antibiotic regulation, improved healthcare access, and culturally sensitive education to promote rational antibiotic use and curb antimicrobial resistance in the Philippines.
World Health Organization ; Prevalence ; One Health ; Methods ; Residence Characteristics
5.Analysis of factors associated with stunting in toddlers: A mixed methods study in Banten, Indonesia.
Jenny Anna Siauta M. KEB ; Ida HANDAYANI ; Mey Maya Sari NASUTION
Acta Medica Philippina 2026;60(9):100-109
BACKGROUND
Stunting remains a major public health issue in Indonesia, particularly in regions like Pandeglang Regency, where prevalence rates are high. Understanding the contributing factors is essential for targeted interventions.
OBJECTIVEThis study aimed to analyze factors associated with stunting among toddlers using a mixed-methods approach.
METHODSA cross-sectional mixed-methods study was conducted in two health centers in Banten Province from December 2021 to January 2022. Quantitative data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed using chi-square tests (pRESULTS
There is a relationship between maternal knowledge, history of exclusive breastfeeding, history of supplementary feeding, support from health workers, and socio-economic status with the prevalence of stunting. However, the pattern of exclusive breastfeeding and seeking health services in the working areas of Bangkonol Health Center and Kaduhejo Health Center, Pandeglang Regency, is not good enough and needs to be improved. Health workers need to educate mothers with toddlers about patterns of providing complementary feeding, food preparation, and storage, and basic health practices to prevent stunting.
RESULTSThere is a relationship between maternal knowledge, history of exclusive breastfeeding, history of supplementary feeding, support from health workers, and socio-economic status with the prevalence of stunting. However, the pattern of exclusive breastfeeding and seeking health services in the working areas of Bangkonol Health Center and Kaduhejo Health Center, Pandeglang Regency, is not good enough and needs to be improved. Health workers need to educate mothers with toddlers about patterns of providing complementary feeding, food preparation, and storage, and basic health practices to prevent stunting.
Human ; Infant: 1-23 Months ; Child Preschool: 2-5 Yrs Old ; Public Health ; Prevalence ; Methods ; Indonesia ; Health ; Growth Disorders ; Comprehension
6.Against the storm: Salvaging refractory arrhythmia with mexiletine.
Edward D. WONG ; John Kenneth C. REY-MATIAS ; Romeo C. GRIÑO
Philippine Journal of Cardiology 2026;54(S1):64-68
INTRODUCTION
Ventricular tachycardia (VT) storm is a condition characterized by recurrent ventricular arrhythmias within a 24-hour period, requiring a device or pharmacologic intervention. Despite its clinical significance, data on VT storm prevalence and treatment outcomes in the Filipino population remain limited
CASE REPORTWe present a 69-year-old male with heart failure from non-ischemic cardiomyopathy and an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), who experienced multiple VT episodes unresponsive to amiodarone, lidocaine and mechanical cardioversion. He was initially admitted for catheter ablation but later developed a left ventricular thrombus precluding the procedure. Mexiletine was introduced and successfully suppressed arrhythmia recurrence
CASE DISCUSSIONThis case emphasized the complexity of managing ES, especially in patients with contraindications to ablation. Mexiletine, a class IB antiarrhythmic agent structurally similar to lidocaine, has shown efficacy in refractory VT, especially when standard therapies are ineffective or are contraindicated. Limited data exists on its safety for such cases, particularly in patients with intracardiac thrombus.
CONCLUSIONMexiletine may offer a viable treatment option for VT storm in patients ineligible for ablation due to left ventricular thrombus. While it was effective in this case, further studies are needed to validate its safety and long-term outcomes in similar high-risk populations.
Human ; Male ; Aged: 65-79 Yrs Old ; Tachycardia ; Clinical Relevance ; Arrhythmias, Cardiac ; Therapeutics ; Prevalence ; Tachycardia, Ventricular
7.Takayasu arteritis with multivessel involvement: A case report.
Geianne Renci ATIENZA ; Giormaru CUNTAPAY ; Rica Keiza KING
Philippine Journal of Cardiology 2026;54(S1):69-73
BACKGROUND
Takayasu arteritis (TAK) is a rare, chronic large-vessel vasculitis affecting the aorta and its major branches, leading to stenosis, occlusion, or aneurysmal changes. The global incidence is approximately 1.11 cases per million person-years, with a strong female predominance (80%–90%), typically manifesting between 40 and 50 years of age. Although TAK occurs worldwide, its prevalence is highest in Asia with 61 reported cases in the Philippines. Clinical manifestations are heterogeneous, ranging from nonspecific systemic symptoms to severe vascular complications, often delaying diagnosis, particularly in atypical cases.
CASE PRESENTATIONWe report a 43-year-old woman with hypertension, diabetes and chronic ischemic stroke without residuals who presented with a two-month history of easy fatigability, generalized weakness, arthralgia, intermittent claudication with progressive dark discoloration of both lower extremities, undocumented low-grade fever and alopecia. She developed acute respiratory distress with abrupt loss of consciousness requiring emergent intubation. Examination revealed a marked discrepancy in blood pressure between the upper extremities, diminished peripheral pulses and an audible abdominal bruit. Laboratory studies showed elevated Troponin I, ESR and CRP, with borderline ANA and normal complement levels. Neuroimaging demonstrated multiple acute and chronic cortical and cerebellar infarcts. Initially managed as a cerebrovascular accident, she required tracheostomy for ventilatory dependence. Antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy was started after evidence of myocardial infarction. Progressive ischemia of the left lower extremity necessitated below-knee amputation. CT aortography later revealed diffuse thoracoabdominal aortic and iliac involvement with mural thickening, multiple aneurysms, dissection and unilateral renal artery stenosis. Further immunologic workup showed her to be negative for lupus anticoagulant. Immunosuppressive therapy with corticosteroids and methotrexate was initiated to control vascular inflammation and limit further progression.
CONCLUSIONThis case highlights the diagnostic complexity of TAK with atypical, multi-organ ischemic presentations, emphasizing the importance of clinical vigilance, comprehensive vascular imaging and timely immunosuppressive therapy to mitigate complications and improve outcomes.
Human ; Female ; Adult: 25-44 Yrs Old ; Takayasu Arteritis ; Research Report ; Constriction, Pathologic ; Prevalence ; Diagnosis ; Vasculitis
8.Analysis and projection of the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China based on the GBD database.
Yexun SONG ; Xiajing LIU ; Yongquan ZHANG ; Heqing LI
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(4):675-683
OBJECTIVES:
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
METHODS:
Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050.
RESULTS:
In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Adult
;
Incidence
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Adolescent
;
Databases, Factual
;
Young Adult
;
Cost of Illness
;
Child
;
Bayes Theorem
9.Distribution characteristics and influencing factors of overweight and obesity among urban and rural primary and secondary school students in Hunan Province.
Lixi QIN ; Miyang LUO ; Kexin LI ; Yang ZHOU ; Yanhua CHEN ; Yaqing TAN ; Fei WANG
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(4):684-693
OBJECTIVES:
The prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents continues to rise, becoming one of the most serious global public health issues of the 21st century. Given the differing growth and development environments between urban and rural children, associated risk factors also vary. This study aims to explore the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of overweight and obesity among urban and rural primary and secondary school students in Hunan Province, providing scientific evidence for targeted interventions.
METHODS:
A stratified, randomized cluster sampling method was used to select participants. A total of 197 084 students from primary and secondary schools across 14 prefectures in Hunan Province underwent physical examinations and questionnaire surveys. Population and spatial distribution characteristics of overweight and obesity were analyzed. Spatial distribution maps and spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted using ArcGIS. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to identify influencing factors for overweight and obesity.
RESULTS:
The overall overweight and obesity rates among students in Hunan Province were 14.7% and 10.9%, respectively. Both rates were higher in urban areas than in rural counties (16.0% vs 13.9% for overweight; 12.1% vs 10.2% for obesity). Among both urban and rural students, boys had higher rates of overweight and obesity than girls. Higher-grade students had a higher overweight rate but a lower obesity rate than lower-grade students. In urban areas, the overweight and obesity rates of Han Chinese primary and secondary school students are lower than those of ethnic minority students (both P<0.05). In rural areas, the obesity rate of Han primary and secondary school students is lower than that of ethnic students (P<0.05). Across cities and prefectures, urban overweight and obesity rates ranged from 14.7% to 18.7% and 8.4% to 20.6% respectively, while rural rates ranged from 10.9% to 17.2% and 6.6% to 13.7% respectively. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed high-value clusters of overweight/obesity in urban areas of Changde and Zhangjiajie, and in rural areas of Loudi, Huaihua, and Shaoyang. Multivariate Logistic regression showed that gender, school stage, ethnicity, frequency of fresh vegetable intake, and sleep duration were associated with overweight and/or obesity in both urban and rural students. In urban students, frequency of fried food and fresh fruit intake, breakfast habits, physical activity on weekdays and holidays, and screen time on computers were also significant. In rural students, TV viewing time and sedentary duration were additional relevant factors.
CONCLUSIONS
The situation of overweight and obesity among primary and secondary school students in Hunan Province remains concerning. Greater attention should be paid to regions with high-value clusters of overweight/obesity, and targeted interventions should be developed based on urban-rural differences in influencing factors.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Adolescent
;
Male
;
Female
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Child
;
Overweight/epidemiology*
;
Students/statistics & numerical data*
;
Urban Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Risk Factors
;
Prevalence
;
Obesity/epidemiology*
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Pediatric Obesity/epidemiology*
;
Schools
10.Gender differences in the burden of near vision loss in China: An analysis based on GBD 2021 data.
Yu LIU ; Liping ZHU ; Yanhui LIN ; Yanbing WANG ; Kun XIONG ; Xuhong LI ; Wenguang YAN
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(6):1030-1041
OBJECTIVES:
Near vision loss (NVL) is one of the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide, exerting a profound impact on individual quality of life and socio-economic development. This study aims to analyze the burden of NVL in China by sex and age groups from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.
METHODS:
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we conducted descriptive analyses of NVL prevalence in China, calculated age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) to compare burden differences between sexes and age groups, and applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict NVL trends for the next 15 years. The model selection was based on best-fit criteria to ensure reliable projections.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, China's ASPR of NVL rose from 10 096.24/100 000 to 15 624.54/100 000, and ASDR increased from 101.75/100 000 to 158.75/100 000. In 2021, ASPR (16 551.70/100 000) and ASDR (167.69/100 000) were higher among females than males (14 686.21/100 000 and 149.76/100 000, respectively). China ranked highest globally in both NVL cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with female burden significantly exceeding male burden. Projections indicated this trend and sex gap will persist until 2036. Compared with 1990, the prevalence cases and DALYs increased by 239.20% and 238.82%, respectively in 2021, with the highest burden among females and the 55-59 age group. The ARIMA model predicted continued increases in prevalence and DALYs by 2036, with females maintaining a higher burden than males.
CONCLUSIONS
This study reveals a marked increase in the NVL burden in China and predicts continued growth in the coming years. Public health policies should prioritize NVL prevention and control, with special attention to women and middle-aged populations to mitigate long-term societal and health impacts.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prevalence
;
Middle Aged
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Adult
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Adolescent
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
;
Aged
;
Sex Factors
;
Child
;
Young Adult
;
Child, Preschool
;
Cost of Illness
;
Infant
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Vision Disorders/epidemiology*


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