1.Risk factors for overall postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgeries: a multicenter observational study.
Xuecai LÜ ; Yanhong LIU ; Shiyi HAN ; Haoyun ZHANG ; Aisheng HOU ; Zhikang ZHOU ; Likai SHI ; Jie GAO ; Jiangbei CAO ; Hong ZHANG ; Weidong MI
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(4):736-743
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the risk factors of overall postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgeries.
METHODS:
This study was conducted among a total of 1388 elderly patients, who underwent elective gastrointestinal surgeries at 17 centers across China between April, 2020 and April, 2022. The primary outcome was the incidence of postoperative complications within 30 days, including procedure-related, neuropsychiatric, respiratory, cardiovascular, and gastrointestinal complications as well as acute kidney injury. Baseline characteristics, preoperative psychological and functional status, intraoperative anesthesia and surgical factors, intraoperative medication, use of nerve block, and postoperative analgesia methods were compared between the patients experiencing one or more postoperative complications and those without complications. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for postoperative complications. The relationship between postoperative acute pain and each type of complication were explored.
RESULTS:
The incidence of overall postoperative complications was 50.8% (705/1388) in these patients. Multivariate analysis showed that age (OR: 1.026; 95% CI: 1.006-1.046), prognostic nutritional index (OR: 0.998; 95% CI: 0.997-1.000), preoperative EuroQol-5 dimensions score (OR: 0.094; 95% CI: 0.018-0.500), blood loss (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.001-1.003), and acute postoperative pain (OR: 1.308; 95% CI: 1.033-1.657) were significantly associated with the occurrence of postoperative complications. Specifically, patients experiencing severe postoperative pain had a significantly higher incidence of neuropsychiatric (27.2% vs 19.8%), procedure-related (17.3% vs 10.2%), and cardiovascular complications (3.6% vs 1.7%).
CONCLUSIONS
An advanced age, a low preoperative nutritional index, a poor quality of life score, a greater volume of intraoperative blood loss, and acute postoperative pain are independent risk factors for postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgeries. There is a significant association between acute postoperative pain and multi-system complications.
Humans
;
Postoperative Complications/etiology*
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Digestive System Surgical Procedures/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Pain, Postoperative/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Aged, 80 and over
2.Lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2035: trends of disease burden and future projections.
Yitong LIU ; Ke ZHAO ; Xiaodong WANG
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(7):1554-1562
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections.
METHODS:
We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
CONCLUSIONS
By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.
Humans
;
Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Lip Neoplasms/epidemiology*
;
Asia, Eastern/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Prevalence
;
Female
;
Forecasting
;
Risk Factors
;
Cost of Illness
;
Middle Aged
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Aged
;
Bayes Theorem
3.Intraoperative renal collecting system damage increases risks of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy: a 1∶2 propensity-matched case-control study.
Yanzhong LIU ; Run ZHU ; Yuzhu LI ; Xin MA ; Haixing MAI
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(9):1880-1888
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy and its risk factors.
METHODS:
We retrospectively analyzed baseline patient characteristics (age, gender, and body mass index), smoking, alcohol consumption, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperuricemia, and cardiovascular diseases), preoperative tumor conditions (tumor diameter, multiple foci, location, hemorrhage, necrosis, cystic changes, and endophytic growth), preoperative glomerular filtration rate and intraoperative factors (renal collecting system damage, ischemia time, operation time, surgical approach, and estimated intraoperative blood loss) to identify the risk factors for ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones following partial nephrectomy in our center.
RESULTS:
The overall incidence of upper urinary tract stones following partial nephrectomy was 7.80% (112/1435). The incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones was significantly higher than those of contralateral stones (4.95% vs 1.46%, P<0.001) and bilateral stones (4.95% vs 1.39%, P<0.001). Intraoperative damage to the renal collecting system was identified as a significant risk factor for ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones (OR=4.550, 95% CI: 2.237-9.252, P<0.001). Diabetes was a probable risk factor for secondary ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy (OR=2.419, 95% CI: 0.973-6.012, P=0.057).
CONCLUSIONS
The incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy is higher than that of contralateral and bilateral stones. Intraoperative renal collecting system damage is a risk factor for secondary ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy.
Humans
;
Nephrectomy/methods*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Factors
;
Male
;
Female
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Kidney Neoplasms/surgery*
;
Adult
;
Intraoperative Complications
;
Kidney Tubules, Collecting/injuries*
;
Propensity Score
;
Incidence
;
Kidney Calculi/etiology*
;
Urinary Calculi/epidemiology*
4.Global burden and predicted trends of diarrheal disease in children under five from 1990 to 2021.
Ying DENG ; Minyi ZHANG ; Shiao WANG ; Shunchang FAN ; Jiaqi CHEN ; Juxian XIAN ; Qing CHEN
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(10):2171-2181
OBJECTIVES:
To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years.
METHODS:
The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to assess the incidence, mortality rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of diarrhea among children under 5 years across nations(regions) and GBD regions from 1990 to 2021 using joinpoint regression. Smoothed curve regression was employed to explore the correlation of diarrheal disease burden with the Social Development Index (SDI) and for analyzing the burden of specific diarrheal pathogens. The Slope and Concentration Indices quantified disparities across SDI levels and the future trend were projected by the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence (AAPC: -3.65) and mortality (AAPC: -5.15) rates of diarrheal diseases declined steadily in children below 5 years. In 2021, neonates (<28 days) were the most affected, with an incidence rate of 138 058.74 per 100 000 and a mortality rate of 251.14 per 100 000. Rotavirus was the leading cause of death. The incidence rate of diarrheal diseases was negatively correlated with SDI, and the Concentration Index decreased from -0.293 in 1990 to -0.314 in 2021 without a significant gender difference. The BAPC model suggested that the global incidence rate of diarrheal diseases tends to decrease progressively from 2022 to 2050, with a predicted rate of 23 448.04 per 100 000 for male and 29 932.59 per 100 000 for female by 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the reduction in the global burden of diarrhea and the projection of its further decline, diarrheal diseases disproportionately affect neonates and low-SDI regions. While rotavirus remains the primary etiological agent worldwide, the predominant pathogens vary by nations (regions) and GBD regions, and strengthened interventions targeting vulnerable populations are needed.
Humans
;
Child, Preschool
;
Diarrhea/mortality*
;
Infant
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Global Health
;
Male
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Female
5.Epidemiology of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis and Mendelian randomization study based on the China and Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Huihua MA ; Kuipo YAN ; Gang LIU ; Yazhou XU ; Lei ZHANG ; Yizhuo LI
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(10):2182-2190
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the changes in disease burden and risk factors of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 to provide epidemiological evidence for developing effective preventive measures for AF/AFL in China.
METHODS:
Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed sex- and age-specific AF/AFL burden metrics across 204 countries or territories. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence, mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were calculated. Joinpoint regression was employed to compute average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in trends. The risk factors were systematically evaluated and further validated using Mendelian randomization analysis.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, China experienced an increase in ASIR of AF/AFL (from 42.63 to 44.93 per 100 000), contrasting with the global decline. While China's ASMR decreased (from 4.93 to 4.33 per 100 000), global ASMR rose slightly (from 4.24 to 4.36 per 100 000). China's ASDR remained stable at 93.29 per 100 000, whereas global ASDR increased marginally (100.81 to 101.40 per 100 000). Significant sex disparities were observed: males showed higher ASIR and ASDR, while females exhibited greater ASMR and ASDR. China had higher incidence and prevalence but lower mortality and DALY rates compared to global averages. In 2021, the key risk factors for AF/AFL included elevated systolic blood pressure, high BMI, smoking, alcohol use, high-sodium diet, and low temperature. Gender-specific patterns emerged: smoking was predominant in males, whereas high BMI disproportionately affected females.
CONCLUSIONS
AF/AFL incidence and prevalence keep increasing in China, and its large population base and demographic aging pose significant public health challenges. Maintaining healthy lifestyle habits, including smoking cessation, alcohol moderation, and a low-sodium diet can help to lower AF/AFL incidence, and regular screenings is crucial for its early detection and treatment.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Atrial Flutter/epidemiology*
;
Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology*
;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Male
;
Female
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Incidence
;
Prevalence
;
Middle Aged
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Aged
6.Predictive factors of transient congenital hypothyroidism among Filipino children: A retrospective study
Lorna R. Abad ; Ebner Bon G. Maceda ; Angela Marie D. Leyco ; Sylvia C. Estrada
Acta Medica Philippina 2025;59(Early Access 2025):1-10
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
Transient congenital hypothyroidism (TCH) refers to temporary deficiency of thyroid hormone identified after birth which later recovers to improved thyroxine production. Its prevalence in the Philippines has not been reported in a large-scale study. Its diagnosis remains difficult due to its numerous possible etiologies. Identifying the predictive factors of TCH may aid in earlier diagnosis and decreased risk of overtreatment. This study aimed to determine the predictive factors for TCH in children with congenital hypothyroidism (CH) detected by newborn screening (NBS) in the Philippines from January 2010 to December 2017.
METHODSIn this multicenter retrospective cohort study involving 15 NBS continuity clinics in the Philippines, medical records were reviewed, and clinical and laboratory factors were compared between children with TCH and those with permanent congenital hypothyroidism (PCH). Of the 2,913 children diagnosed with CH in the Philippines from 2010 to 2017, 1,163 (39.92%) were excluded from the study due to an unrecalled or lost to follow-up status, or a concomitant diagnosis of Down Syndrome.
RESULTSAmong the 1,750 patients included in analysis, 6.97% were diagnosed with TCH, 60.80% were female, mean gestational age at birth was 38 weeks, and mean birth weight was 2,841 grams. Confirmatory thyrotropin (TSH) was lower and confirmatory free thyroxine (FT4) was higher in the TCH group compared to those with PCH (TSH 32.80 vs 86.65 µIU/mL [p < 0.0001]; FT4 9.90 vs 7.37 pmol/L [p 0.001]). The TCH group required lower L-thyroxine doses compared to the PCH group at treatment initiation and at 1, 2, and 3 years of age (initial 6.98 vs 12.08 µg/ kg/day [p < 0.0001]; at 1 year 1.89 vs 4.11 µg/kg/day [p < 0.0001]; at 2 years 1.21 vs 3.72 µg/kg/day [p < 0.0001]; at 3 years 0.83 vs 3.45 µg/kg/day [p < 0.0001]). Among those with TCH, mean serum TSH decreased significantly after treatment with L-thyroxine (32.80 vs. 6.55 µIU/ mL, p 0.0001). Other factors associated with TCH were results of thyroid ultrasonography (p 0.007), gestational age at birth (p 0.02), and maternal history of thyroid illness (p < 0.0001).
CONCLUSIONOf all the patients with confirmed congenital hypothyroidism via the newborn screening, 6.97% were diagnosed with transient CH. Factors associated with TCH are confirmatory TSH and FT4, L-thyroxine dose requirements, thyroid ultrasound findings, gestational age at birth, and a maternal history of thyroid illness.
Human ; Congenital Hypothyroidism ; Philippines ; Neonatal Screening ; Prevalence
7.Social determinants of health: Analysis of the effect of socio-environmental factors to diseases, injury-related DALYs, and deaths based on WHO, ILO, and WB data
Jinky Leilanie Lu ; Paolo L. Conception
Acta Medica Philippina 2025;59(Early Access 2025):1-13
INTRODUCTION
The social determinants of health refer to an individual's social, political, and economic situation and environment, which can have an impact on their health. On the other hand, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) reflect the mortalities and morbidities incurred due to disease and injury.
OBJECTIVESThis study aims to analyze the social determinants of health indicators and their association with communicable, non-communicable, and injury-related DALYs and deaths.
METHODSData from World Health Organization, World Bank, and International Labor Organization were used and considered for the 17 Social Determinants of Health categories. Logistic regression was used to determine the relationship of social determinants of health indicators with communicable, non-communicable, and injury-related DALYs and deaths.
RESULTSResults show that an increase in the population, monetary poverty, adult illiteracy, and fine particulate matter increase IPNN DALYs. This study also found correlations of socioeconomic factors to NCD deaths and DALYs attributable to the environment. NCD DALYs and deaths are found to increase with the number of poor living with 3.10 dollars a day, while median daily per capita income, and increase in persons above retiring age receiving pension decrease NCD DALYs attributable to the environment. Focusing on injury DALYs and deaths, an increase in the number of poor living at 3.10 dollars a day, non-agricultural informal employment, and total average concentration of f ine particulate matter increases injury DALYs while the latter is observed to decrease when there is an increase in the medial daily per capita income, agricultural employment outside the formal sector, and vulnerable persons covered by social assistance.
CONCLUSIONSocio-economic factors such as income, employment, education, and social welfare program affect morbidity, disability, and mortality.
Human ; Social Determinants Of Health ; Disability-adjusted Life Years ; Injury ; Wounds And Injuries ; Morbidity ; Mortality
8.Closed tube thoracostomy morbidity rate in a Philippine tertiary government hospital: 6-year review.
Richard C. Briones ; Marla Vina A. Briones ; Kathleen S. Cruz ; Realyb B. Dongban
Acta Medica Philippina 2025;59(7):45-54
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE
Closed tube thoracostomy is one of the most common hospital procedures known for its effectivity and safety; however, complications may occur, leading to poor patient outcomes. To date, the burden of morbidity among patients who underwent closed tube thoracostomy in the Philippines remains unknown. Therefore, this study aims to determine the in-hospital morbidity rate among patients who underwent closed tube thoracostomy in a tertiary government hospital.
METHODSThis is a descriptive cross-sectional study of admitted patients who underwent closed tube thoracostomy at Bicol Medical Center from 2015 to 2020. Data were collected by reviewing medical charts.
RESULTSA total of 376 patients were included in the study. Morbidity rate was 15.16% (95% CI: 11.69-19.19%), and majority were due to improper chest tube placement. Compared to those without complications, a higher proportion of patients with complications had pleural effusion and had chest tube failure (both p ≤0.05). The median operative time was also significantly longer in patients with complications compared to those without complications (p =0.0012). Mortality was significantly lower in patients with complications than those without complications. Total and postoperative length of stay were significantly longer in patients with complications than those without complications (pCONCLUSION
Complications after closed tube thoracostomy are common. Across all variables analyzed, only indication of chest tube insertion, operative time, and occurrence of chest tube failure were found to differ between patients with and without complications. Moreover, patients with complications had longer length of stay than those without. Reducing positional tube complications may help decrease in-hospital morbidity.
Morbidity ; Chest Tubes
9.Analysis of the clinical efficacy and safety of a single upper pole access (SUPA-PCNL) for staghorn calculi: A prospective single center descriptive study
Lester Anthony H. Florencio ; Jose Benito A. Abraham
Philippine Journal of Urology 2025;35(1):1-8
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE
The endoscopic management of staghorn calculi is very challenging owing to its complex anatomical configuration. The authors analyzed the clinical efficacy and safety of a single upper pole access PCNL (SUPA-PCNL) for Guy Stone Score (GSS) 3-4 staghorn calculi.
METHODSProspective data collection was done on 56 consecutive patients who with GSS 3-4 staghorn calculi. All cases were treated with a standardized technique of a single upper pole access PCNL in the prone position. The patient demographics, stone characteristics, perioperative and postoperative outcomes were analyzed.
RESULTSThe cohort exhibited diversity in age (51.7+12), gender (male to female ratio of 5.5:4.5) comorbidities, and stone burden (4.82+1.96 cm). SUPA-PCNL demonstrated a high median stonefree rate (99.5%, IQR 90-100) with minimal complications, low blood loss with a of 200cc (IQR 100-300), and median hospital stay of 3.5 days (IQR 3-5). Stone characteristics did not significantly influence outcomes. A subset required secondary treatments (12%, n=7), but overall morbidity was low (16%, n=9): (7% n=4) of which required blood transfusion, and (9% n=5) due to sepsis. The following factors were associated with increased odds of perioperative morbidity: preoperative creatinine >3 mg/dl (OR 4.19 95% Cl 0.59 – 29.71 p=0.152) and a history of endoscopic surgery (OR 7.33 95% Cl 1.20-44.96 p=0.031).
CONCLUSIONSUPA-PCNL is effective and safe for the treatment of staghorn calculi. In select patients, this approach obviates the need for a multi-tract access or an endoscopically-combined intrarenal surgery (ECIRS).
Human ; Nephrolithotomy, Percutaneous ; Morbidity ; Staghorn Calculi
10.Risk factors affecting morbidity and mortality in open repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms: A retrospective cohort study in the University of the Philippines Philippine General Hospital
Eduardo R. Bautista ; Tricia Angela G. Sarile ; Adrian E. Manapat ; Carlo Martin H. Garcia ; Racel Ireneo Luis C. Querol ; Leoncio L. Kaw
Acta Medica Philippina 2025;59(10):62-73
OBJECTIVES
To describe the treatment outcomes of patients who underwent open repair of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and to determine the risk factors affecting morbidity and mortality.
METHODSData were obtained from patients with infrarenal AAAs who underwent open surgical repair at the University of the Philippines-Philippine General Hospital (UP-PGH) from January 2013 to October 31, 2023. These patients’ demographic and clinical profile, and treatment outcomes were evaluated using frequencies and percentages. Student’s t-test and chi-square test were used for the inferential analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality and morbidity.
RESULTSIn this study, 131 patients underwent open surgical repair of AAA. 82.4% of the patients were males, and 45.8% were between 61-70 years old. The majority of them had hypertension (81.4%) and were smokers (75%). The mortality rate was 17.6%, while the morbidity rate was 35.9%. For elective operations, the mortality was 8.9%, and for ruptured aneurysms, it was 56.5%. Eleven factors associated with mortality included ruptured aneurysm (OR=11.5, 95%CI=4.1 to 32.2), decreased hemoglobin (OR=1.1, 95%CI=1.05 to 1.2), decreased hematocrit (OR=1.1, 95%CI=1.06 to 1.4), emergency surgery (OR=10.3, 95%CI=2.9 to 36.3), higher volume of blood loss (OR=1.5, 95%CI=1.5 to 1.9), higher red cell transfusion (OR=1.3, 95%CI=1.1-1.5), intraoperative cardiopulmonary (CP) arrest (OR=15.9, 95%CI=1.6 to 159.2), need for multiple inotropes (OR=2.7, 95%CI=1.5-4.8), intraoperative hypotension (OR=3.6, 95%CI=1.4-9.7), juxta-renal location (OR=5.0, 95%CI=1.2 to 10.0), and presence of any complication (OR=5.7, 95%CI=2.1-15.1). Seven factors associated with morbidity included ruptured aneurysm (OR=3.9, 95%CI=1.5 to 9.8), decreased preoperative hemoglobin (OR=1.2, 95%CI=1.1 to 1.4), decreased preoperative hematocrit (OR=1.5, 95%CI=1.1 to 1.7), elevated preoperative creatinine (OR=1.1, 95%CI=1.06 to 1.9), higher intra-operative blood loss (OR=1.4, 95%CI=1.1 to 1.6), higher red cell transfusion (OR=1.6, 95%CI=1.3-2.1), and preexisting chronic renal disease (OR=3.3, 95%CI=1.4 to 7.5). Other preoperative and intraoperative factors did not show a significant association with mortality or morbidity.
CONCLUSIONThe open repair of an infrarenal AAA is linked to high overall mortality (17.6%) and morbidity (35.9%). The mortality rate for elective repair was 8.9%, but it significantly increased to 56.5% in cases of ruptured aneurysms. Factors with very high Odds Ratio such as emergency surgery, ruptured aneurysm, cardiac arrests during surgery, complex juxtarenal anatomy, and postoperative complications can lead to a high chance of mortality. Healthcare professionals should be vigilant and focus on early detection and repair of abdominal aneurysms to prevent emergency surgery, rupture, and mortality. It is crucial to prevent acute kidney injury, acute respiratory failure, and pneumonia, as these are common complications of open repair.
Human ; Morbidity ; Mortality


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