1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Association between urinary levels of six per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus
Ziyi LIU ; Luming YAN ; Tingting JIANG ; Yaling LI ; Chao ZHANG ; Jiahu HAO
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):174-181
Background Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can influence gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); however, current studies on their association are limited and have yielded inconsistent findings. Objective To investigate the association between maternal exposure to PFAS, as measured by urinary concentrations in early pregnancy, and the risk of developing GDM. Methods Based on the Wuhu Birth Cohort in Anhui Province conducted between 2020 and 2023, this study included
3.Association of latent profiles of mobile phone dependence and self control with physical exercise among junior high school students
YAN Chuqi, ZHANG Tiancheng, ZHANG Fulan, WANG Aolun, PENG Jinyin, CHEN Ziyi, LUO Xiangyu
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):391-395
Objective:
To explore the association of latent profiles of mobile phone dependence and self control with physical exercise among junior high school students, so as to provide references for the prevention of mobile phone dependence and the improvement of self control among junior high school students.
Methods:
From April to May 2024, a stratified random cluster sampling method was used to select a total of 2 311 students from grade 7 to grade 9 in three public junior high schools in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture, Hunan Province. Latent profile analysis was conducted to identify the latent profiles of mobile phone dependence and self control among junior high school students. Pearson correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation between mobile phone dependence and self control, and Chi square test was used to analyze the distribution differences of latent profiles of adolescents across different demographic characteristics. Multiple Logistic regression analysis was applied to explore the association between mobile phone dependence, self control, and physical exercise.
Results:
Four latent profiles of mobile phone dependence and self control were identified: low dependence-moderate self control group ( n =885, 38.3%), moderate dependence-low self control group ( n =910, 39.4%), high dependence-no self control group ( n =232, 10.0%), and no dependence-high self control group ( n =284, 12.3%). Significant differences were observed in the distribution of latent profiles across gender, grade and only child status ( χ 2=10.85, 35.72, 13.85, P <0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that, after controlling for demographic variables, compared with the low dependence-moderate self control group, physical exercise was negatively associated with the moderate dependence-low self control group ( OR =0.79) and the high dependence-no self control group ( OR =0.81), while positively associated with the no dependence-high self control group ( OR =1.58) ( P <0.01).
Conclusions
The influence of physical exercise on junior high school students different potential profile types of mobile phone dependence and self control is different. Schools and families should adopt targeted physical exercise interventions based on the characteristics of different profiles to promote the physical and mental health of junior high school students.
4.Development trajectory of mobile phone dependence in middle school students and its association with loneliness and self-control
LUO Xiangyu, ZHANG Tiancheng, WANG Aolun, ZHANG Fulan, LIU Yang, YAN Chuqi, CHEN Ziyi
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(5):624-629
Objective:
To analyze the heterogeneity of mobile phone dependence development trajectory in middle school students and its association with loneliness and selfcontrol ability, so as to provide reference for the prevention of mobile phone dependence in middle school students.
Methods:
A total of 941 grade 1 students from 4 public middle schools in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture, Hunan Province were selected for the followup survey by random cluster sampling from October 2023 to April 2024 and October 2024. Mobile Phone Addiction Index (MPAI), University of California, Los Angeles Loneliness Scale-20 (UCLA-20) and Selfcontrol Scales (SCS) were used for questionnaire survey. The heterogeneity of the developmental trajectory of middle school students mobile phone dependence was analyzed by the latent growth curve model (LGMM), and the influencing factors of the developmental trajectory of middle school students mobile phone dependence were explored by multiple Logistic regression analysis.
Results:
The development trajectory of middle school students mobile phone dependence could be divided into four categories: C1 "low risk slow decline group (n=438,44.6%)", C2 "medium risk slow rise group (n=272,29.7%)", C3 "high risk rapid decline group (n=73,8.6%)" and C4 "high risk rapid rise group (n=158,17.1%)". There were significant differences in the distribution of mobile phone dependence development track heterogeneity subgroups among sex, only child, lodging, and leftbehind students (χ2=117.79, 44.88, 37.09, 130.50, P <0.01). The results of the multinomial Logistic regression model analysis showed that, with C1 group as the reference, C2, C3, and C4 were positively correlated with students loneliness [OR(95%CI)=1.04 (1.02-1.06), 1.11(1.08-1.14), 1.12(1.09-1.14)]; C2 and C4 groups were negatively correlated with students selfcontrol [OR(95%CI)=0.97(0.96-0.99), 0.95(0.93-0.97)] (P<0.01).
Conclusions
The development trajectory of mobile phone dependence among middle school students is heterogeneous. Reducing the loneliness of individuals and cultivating good selfcontrol ability are helpful to alleviate mobile phone dependence behavior among middle school students.
5.Chaihu Shugansan Combined with Ferulic Acid Regulates BDNF/TrkB Signaling Pathway and Monoamine Neurotransmitters in Frontal Cortex of Rat Model of CUMS
Yuexin LI ; Zhijing ZHANG ; Ziyi GUO ; Di YAN ; Xueyan HU ; Jianping YAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(15):28-37
ObjectiveTo observe the antidepressant effect of Chaihu Shugansan combined with ferulic acid on the rat model of chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) and explore the mechanism from the histomorphology of frontal cortex, expression of key molecules in the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF)/tyrosine kinase receptor B (TrkB) signaling pathway, and changes in monoamine neurotransmitter levels. MethodsSixty adult male SD rats were randomized into six groups (n=10): blank control, depression model, Chaihu Shugansan (3.3 g·kg-1·d-1), ferulic acid (50 mg·kg-1·d-1), Chaihu Shugansan (3.3 g·kg-1·d-1) + ferulic acid (50 mg·kg-1·d-1), and fluoxetine (2.1 mg·kg-1·d-1). Rats in other groups except the blank control group were subjected to a mild chronic unpredictable stress stimulus every day. Seven stimuli were used, including fasting with free access to water for 24 h, water deprivation with free access to food for 24 h, wetting the bedding with water in the cage, restraint for 3 h, tail clamping for 1 min, swimming in ice water at 4 ℃, and day and night reversal. Each stimulus was used 1 to 3 times, and the modeling lasted for a total of 21 days. At the same time of stimulation, rats in each medication group were treated with corresponding agents by gavage, while those in the blank control group and the depression model group received equal volumes of normal saline by gavage. The open field test, sucrose preference test, and forced swimming test were conducted before and after modeling. The rats were anesthetized by intraperitoneal injection of 3% pentobarbital sodium, and the frontal cortex was isolated on ice. The mRNA and protein levels of BDNF, TrkB, and cyclic adenosine monophosphate-responsive element-binding protein (CREB) in the frontal cortex were determined by Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) and Western blot, respectively. The levels of monoamine neurotransmitters 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT), dopamine (DA), and norepinephrine (NE) in the frontal cortex were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Light microscopy was employed to observe the histopathological changes in the frontal cortex. ResultsCompared with the blank control group, the depression model group showed reduced body mass (P<0.05, P<0.01), decreased number of crossings and rearings in the open field test and sucrose preference (P<0.01), prolonged time of immobility in the forced swimming test (P<0.01), reduced neuronal cells, increased necrotic cells, and darkening cell staining in the frontal cortex, down-regulated mRNA and protein levels of BDNF, TrkB, CREB, and lowered levels of 5-HT, NE, and DA in the frontal cortex (P<0.01). Compared with the depression model group, each intervention group showed improved general state, increased body mass (P<0.05), increased number of crossings (P<0.05), shortened immobility time in the forced swimming test (P<0.01), increased neuronal cells, reduced necrotic cells, and lightened cellular staining in the frontal cortex, up-regulated mRNA and protein levels of BDNF, TrkB and CREB, and elevated levels of 5-HT, NE, and DA in the frontal cortex (P<0.01). Moreover, the Chaihu Shugansan + ferulic acid group outperformed the Chaihu Shugansan group and the ferulic acid group in increasing the body mass and the 5-HT content in the frontal cortex (P<0.05). The combination group outperformed the Chaihu Shugansan group regarding the number of rearings and up-regulation in the mRNA level of BDNF in the frontal cortex (P<0.05), and it was superior to the ferulic acid group in terms of shortening the immobility time in the forced swimming test, up-regulating the mRNA levels of BDNF, TrkB, and CREB and the protein levels of BDNF and CREB in the frontal cortex, and increasing the DA content in the frontal cortex (P<0.05). ConclusionChaihu Shugansan combined with ferulic acid can exert antidepressant effect on the rat model of CUMS by regulating the BDNF/TrkB signaling pathway and monoamine neurotransmitter content in the frontal cortex. Moreover, the antidepressant effect of Chaihu Shugansan combined with ferulic acid was more significant than that of Chaihu Shugansan and ferulic acid used alone.
6.Study on the Assessment of Social Medical Insurance Participation in Palliative Care Medical Insurance Payment Policies
Aihua ZHANG ; Ziyi HU ; Yan JIANG
Chinese Health Economics 2025;44(9):9-15
Objective:To quantitatively assess the participation of social medical insurance in palliative care medical insurance payment policies in different regions of China,explore the characteristics,find the weak points,and provide a basis for subsequent policy formulation.Methods:Based on text mining and literature review,it established a Policy Modeling Consistency(PMC)index model with 9 primary indicators and 38 secondary indicators,and quantitatively evaluated the palliative care insurance payment policies from 2017 to 2024.Results:A total of 24 policies were included,and the overall PMC index was 5.65,which was an acceptable grade,including 10 good grade policies,13 acceptable grade policies,and 1 poor grade policy.Conclusion:Overall,palliative care medical insurance payment policies are good,with relatively complete provisions in terms of coverage,medical insurance payment mechanism,supervision and management.However,there are still shortcomings in terms of financing channels,policy recipients,and incentive constraints.The follow-up should focus on broadening the financing channels,expanding the scope of recipients,and improving the incentive and constraint mechanism,so as to promote the optimization and improvement of the palliative care insurance payment system.
7.Epidemiological Analysis of Pathogens in Acute Respiratory Infections During the 2023-2024 Autumn-Winter Season in Beijing:A Case Series of 5556 Patients at Peking Union Medical College Hospital
Yan CAO ; Yu CHEN ; Jie YI ; Lingjun KONG ; Ziyi WANG ; Rui ZHANG ; Qi YU ; Yiwei LIU ; Maimaiti MULATIJIANG ; Chenglin YANG ; Yujie SUN ; Yingchun XU ; Qiwen YANG ; Juan DU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2025;16(3):680-686
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory infections(ARIs)during the autumn-winter season in Beijing,providing evidence for the prevention,control,diagnosis,and treatment of ARIs.Methods A convenience sampling method was employed,enrolling patients who visited Peking Union Medical College Hospital(PUMCH)between September 2023 and February 2024 due to ARIs.Na-sopharyngeal swabs were collected,and real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR was used to detect six common respiratory pathogens[influenza A virus(FluA),influenza B virus(FluB),human rhinovirus(HRV),Myco-plasma pneumoniae(MP),respiratory syncytial virus(RSV),and adenovirus(ADV)],as well as SARS-CoV-2 infection.The distribution patterns of pathogen infections were analyzed.Results A total of 5556 eligible patients were included.The overall positivity rate for the six common respiratory pathogens was 63.7%,with sin-gle-pathogen positivity at 54.0%,dual-pathogen positivity at 8.9%,and triple or more pathogen positivity at 0.7%.The predominant pathogens detected were FluA(16.1%)and RSV(15.7%),followed by ADV(11.1%),MP(11.1%),HRV(10.0%),and FluB(10.0%).No significant difference in overall pathogen positivity was observed between genders.However,significant differences were found between autumn and winter(x2=34.617,P<0.001)and among pediatric,young/middle-aged,and elderly patients(x2=422.38,P<0.001).Specifically,MP(x2=8.647,P=0.003),FluA(x2=131.932,P<0.001),and HRV(x2=174.199,P<0.001)exhibited significantly higher positivity rates in autumn than in winter,whereas FluB was more prevalent in winter(x2=287.894,P<0.001).In pediatric patients,MP,RSV,HRV,and ADV positivity rates were significantly higher than in young/middle-aged and elderly patients(all P<0.001),whereas FluB was more common in young/middle-aged patients(both P<0.001).The positivity rates of the six common respiratory pathogens significantly declined during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic period,exhibiting an asynchronous seasonal pattern.Conclusions The prevalence of respiratory pathogens in Beijing is associated with age and season.Tar-geted preventive measures should be implemented in different seasons and for key populations.
8.Effects of aerobic exercise on hypothalamic autophagy and leptin resis-tance in obese mice
Guangming ZHU ; Ziyi YANG ; Xinzhuang WANG ; Yan LIU ; Chunlu FANG ; Liangming LI ; Shujing LIU
Chinese Journal of Pathophysiology 2025;41(8):1457-1466
AIM:This study aims to investigate the effects of aerobic exercise on hypothalamic autophagy and central leptin resistance in obese mice,and to explore the potential mechanisms.METHODS:Forty male C57BL/6J mice,aged 7 to 8 weeks,were randomly assigned to 5 groups:normal control(CON)group,high-fat diet(HFD)group,HFD+exercise(HFD+Exe)group,HFD+phosphate-buffered saline(PBS)group,and HFD+rilmenidine(autophagy ago-nist)group,with 8 mice in each group.Additionally,twelve fibronectin type Ⅲ domain-containing protein 5(Fndc5)gene(encoding irisin precursor protein)knockout(Fndc5 KO)mice were randomly allocated to Fndc5 KO+HFD group and Fndc5 KO+HFD+Exe group,with 6 mice in each group.All mice were fed for 28 weeks.The mice in CON group re-ceived a normal diet,while those in the remaining groups were provided with an HFD.The mice in HFD+Exe and Fndc5 KO+HFD+Exe groups engaged in aerobic treadmill exercise while continuing an HFD from weeks 17 to 28.The mice in HFD+PBS group received intraperitoneal injections of PBS as a control,while those in HFD+rilmenidine group received in-traperitoneal injections of rilmenidine(10 mg?kg-1?d-1),4 times a week over a total duration of 12 weeks(weeks 17 to 28).Following the intervention,serum metabolite levels,as well as concentrations of leptin and irisin,were quantified by ELISA.Morphological alterations in the liver and white adipose tissues were evaluated through oil red O staining and he-matoxylin-eosin(HE)staining.Western blot was utilized to assess the hypothalamic protein levels of autophagy markers,autophagy-related protein 7(ATG7),beclin-1,microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3(LC3)and p62,and leptin resistance markers,suppressor of cytokine signaling 3(SOCS3)and protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B(PTP1B).RE-SULTS:Observations of mouse phenotypes indicated that HFD feeding significantly increased body weight,blood lipid content and serum leptin level(P<0.05).The results of HE and oil red O staining demonstrated that HFD feeding marked-ly promoted lipid accumulation in the liver and caused ballooning of white adipocytes.Western blot analyses revealed that HFD feeding significantly down-regulated the protein levels of ATG7,beclin-1 and LC3-Ⅱ/LC3-I,but up-regulated the pro-tein level of p62(P<0.05),thus reducing cellular autophagy capacity.Furthermore,HFD feeding elevated the protein levels of leptin resistance markers SOCS3 and PTP1B(P<0.05).Aerobic exercise and autophagy agonist were found to partially reverse these changes,enhancing cellular autophagy capacity and alleviating leptin resistance.However,these effects were diminished after knockout of Fndc5 gene,further substantiating the role of irisin in exercise-mediated en-hancement of cellular autophagy and attenuation of leptin resistance.CONCLUSION:Aerobic exercise alleviates hypo-thalamic autophagy defect and central leptin resistance in obese mice,which may be associated with exercise-induced irisin.
9.Transabdominal bowel ultrasound for monitoring efficacy of vedolizumab treatment in patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis
Lihua YAN ; Xiaodong LUO ; Shuochun CHEN ; Xinying YU ; Ziyi QIU ; Yixin CHEN ; Caihe CHEN ; Buzhi SONG ; Yingjia LI
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging Technology 2025;41(10):1687-1690
Objective To observe the value of transabdominal bowel ultrasound for monitoring therapeutic efficacy of vedolizumab in patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis.Methods Totally 47 ulcerative colitis patients with Mayo endoscopic score(MES)≥2 and treated with vedolizumab were retrospectively included.Transabdominal bowel ultrasound examinations were performed at baseline,at the end of induction therapy,also 3 and 6 months after maintenance therapy,while colonoscopy was performed at baseline and 6 months after maintenance therapy.According to colonoscopy results 6 months after maintenance therapy,the patients were divided into improved group(MES≤1 or MES reduction≥1,n=25)and non-improved group(n=22),and ultrasonic findings of sigmoid colon were compared between and within groups.Results At baseline,no significant difference of ultrasonic findings of sigmoid colon was observed between groups(all P>0.05),whereas differences of bowel wall thickness at the end of induction therapy,of Limberg grade and abnormal perienteric lymph nodes 3 months after maintenance therapy,as well as bowel wall stratification 6 months after maintenance therapy were noticed between groups(all P<0.05).Within improved group,compared with those in baseline,bowel wall thickness improved at all time points after the beginning of treatment,Limberg grade improved 3 and 6 months after maintenance therapy,while bowel wall stratification,abnormal perienteric lymph node and perienteric fat edema improved 6 months after maintenance therapy(all P<0.05).Meanwhile,no significant change of ultrasonic findings of sigmoid colon was observed in non-improved group during the above periods(all P>0.05).Conclusion Transabdominal bowel ultrasound could be used to accurately monitor the therapeutic efficacy of vedolizumab in patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis.
10.Clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia with critical illness
Peiqi LIANG ; Meng GAO ; Yan XIE ; Bingqing LI ; Qian LI ; Ziyi LIU ; Dong WANG ; Huiying QIU ; Suning CHEN ; Depei WU ; Jianhong FU
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2025;46(1):39-44
Objective:This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics of patients newly diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were admitted to the hematology intensive care unit (HCU) with critical illness. It also examined factors associated with critical illness and early mortality in these patients.Methods:Clinical data were collected from 91 newly diagnosed AML patients admitted to the HCU of the Department of Hematology, First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, from October 2020 to 2024. Reasons for HCU admission, major therapeutic interventions, and risk factors for critical illness and early mortality were analyzed.Results:The median time from diagnosis to HCU admission was 3 days ( IQR: 3–9 days), and the median HCU stay was 10 days ( IQR: 3–23 days). Of the 91 patients, 71 were admitted to the HCU before induction chemotherapy, while 20 were transferred to the HCU after its initiation. The leading causes of HCU admission were pulmonary infection (78.0% ), respiratory failure (44.0% ), hepatic insufficiency (28.6% ), renal insufficiency (27.5% ), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC; 25.3% ), and sepsis (23.1% ). Median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and SOFA scores at HCU admission were 14 ( IQR: 11–18) and the median Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 7 ( IQR: 4, 10). Major HCU interventions included vasoactive drugs, noninvasive and invasive mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy, therapeutic leukocyte clearance, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Among patients receiving induction chemotherapy, the composite complete remission rate was 65.4%, and the overall remission rate was 88.5%. Thirty-five (38.5% ) patients died within 28 days of HCU admission. Independent risk factors for 28-day mortality were DIC ( OR=9.350, 95% CI 1.999–43.745, P=0.005), sepsis ( OR=6.817, 95% CI 1.571–29.582, P=0.010), and cardiac insufficiency ( OR=12.281, 95% CI 2.385–63.254, P=0.003) . Conclusion:The main reason for HCU admission in newly diagnosed critically ill AML patients was pulmonary infection. Nearly 40% of patients experisenced early death, and DIC, sepsis, and heart failure were factors influencing early mortatlity.


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