1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Study on the measurable and traceable standards of quality markers for Compound xiebai capsules
Yueheng LIU ; Guoliang DAI ; Xuewen SHAO ; Ziyi YANG ; Wenzheng JU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):444-449
OBJECTIVE To explore and predict the quality markers (Q-markers) of Compound xiebai capsules for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by constituents analysis combined with network pharmacology and molecular docking studies, and to establish the quality standard of Compound xiebai capsules. METHODS UHPLC-TOF-MS was used for qualitative analysis of Compound xiebai capsules, and the candidate Q-markers of Compound xiebai capsules were screened by combining network pharmacology and molecular docking technology. Further, HPLC was applied to establish the fingerprints of 15 batches of Compound xiebai capsules and to conduct quantitative analysis of the main components. RESULTS A total of 51 components were identified from Compound xiebai capsules. Among them, 15 components, namely oxyberberine, methylworenine, coptisine, tetrahydroberberine, epiberberine, berberine, magnoflorine, gandensin, cucurbitacin D, hydroxygenkwan, jatrorrhizine, columbamine, quercetin, cucurbitacin R, and palmatine, were determined as the candidate Q-markers for Compound xiebai capsules in the treatment of COPD. A total of 13 common peaks were calibrated in the fingerprints of 15 batches of Compound xiebai capsules for COPD treatment, with similarity values ranging from 0.976 to 0.999 compared to the reference fingerprint. Seven components were identified among these peaks, namely peak 5 (magnoflorine), peak 8 (jatrorrhizine), peak 9 (epiberberine), peak 10 (columbamine), peak 11 (coptisine), peak 12 (palmatine), and peak 13 (berberine). Their respective contents were (0.267±0.048), (0.453±0.084), (0.572±0.160), (0.392±0.074), (1.076±0.273), (1.477±0.271), and (6.664±1.249) mg/g ( n =3). CONCLUSIONS This study predicted 15 candidate Q-markers of Compound xiebai capsules in the treatment of COPD and established the fingerprint along with a quantitative determination method for seven major components.
3.Association between urinary levels of six per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus
Ziyi LIU ; Luming YAN ; Tingting JIANG ; Yaling LI ; Chao ZHANG ; Jiahu HAO
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(2):174-181
Background Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can influence gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); however, current studies on their association are limited and have yielded inconsistent findings. Objective To investigate the association between maternal exposure to PFAS, as measured by urinary concentrations in early pregnancy, and the risk of developing GDM. Methods Based on the Wuhu Birth Cohort in Anhui Province conducted between 2020 and 2023, this study included
4.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
5.Clinical characteristics and prognostic analysis of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia with critical illness
Peiqi LIANG ; Meng GAO ; Yan XIE ; Bingqing LI ; Qian LI ; Ziyi LIU ; Dong WANG ; Huiying QIU ; Suning CHEN ; Depei WU ; Jianhong FU
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2025;46(1):39-44
Objective:This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics of patients newly diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were admitted to the hematology intensive care unit (HCU) with critical illness. It also examined factors associated with critical illness and early mortality in these patients.Methods:Clinical data were collected from 91 newly diagnosed AML patients admitted to the HCU of the Department of Hematology, First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, from October 2020 to 2024. Reasons for HCU admission, major therapeutic interventions, and risk factors for critical illness and early mortality were analyzed.Results:The median time from diagnosis to HCU admission was 3 days ( IQR: 3–9 days), and the median HCU stay was 10 days ( IQR: 3–23 days). Of the 91 patients, 71 were admitted to the HCU before induction chemotherapy, while 20 were transferred to the HCU after its initiation. The leading causes of HCU admission were pulmonary infection (78.0% ), respiratory failure (44.0% ), hepatic insufficiency (28.6% ), renal insufficiency (27.5% ), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC; 25.3% ), and sepsis (23.1% ). Median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) and SOFA scores at HCU admission were 14 ( IQR: 11–18) and the median Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 7 ( IQR: 4, 10). Major HCU interventions included vasoactive drugs, noninvasive and invasive mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy, therapeutic leukocyte clearance, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Among patients receiving induction chemotherapy, the composite complete remission rate was 65.4%, and the overall remission rate was 88.5%. Thirty-five (38.5% ) patients died within 28 days of HCU admission. Independent risk factors for 28-day mortality were DIC ( OR=9.350, 95% CI 1.999–43.745, P=0.005), sepsis ( OR=6.817, 95% CI 1.571–29.582, P=0.010), and cardiac insufficiency ( OR=12.281, 95% CI 2.385–63.254, P=0.003) . Conclusion:The main reason for HCU admission in newly diagnosed critically ill AML patients was pulmonary infection. Nearly 40% of patients experisenced early death, and DIC, sepsis, and heart failure were factors influencing early mortatlity.
6.Chemotherapy-free induction therapy for a critically ill pregnant woman with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a case report and literature review
Meng GAO ; Yan XIE ; Ziyi LIU ; Peiqi LIANG ; Limin LIU ; Jie YIN ; Dong WANG ; Bing HAN ; Huiying QIU ; Jianhong FU ; Depei WU
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2025;46(10):967-971
This report presents the management of a critically ill 36-year-old woman diagnosed with Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph +ALL) at 28 weeks of gestation. The patient rapidly deteriorated, developing disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) , diffuse alveolar hemorrhage (DAH) , septic shock, and multi-organ dysfunction, necessitating admission to the hematological intensive care unit. Given her critical condition and advanced pregnancy, a chemotherapy-free induction regimen comprising imatinib and dexamethasone was initiated, alongside comprehensive supportive measures, including mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) , broad-spectrum antibiotics, and high-dose corticosteroids. During treatment, intrauterine fetal demise occurred, and a stillborn was delivered following obstetric intervention. With aggressive treatment, the patient's respiratory failure, DIC, and DAH gradually resolved, and she achieved complete remission. She subsequently received consolidation chemotherapy, CAR-T cell therapy, and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, achieving sustained complete molecular remission on long-term follow-up. This case demonstrates that for critically ill pregnant patients with Ph + ALL, a chemotherapy-free regimen of targeted therapy and corticosteroids, when combined with intensive supportive care, is a safe and effective approach that may offer a therapeutic option for similar cases.
7.Study on the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality risk in seven provinces of China
Zhiying JIANG ; Ruilin MENG ; Ruoyi ZHANG ; Xuelong GU ; Jianxiong HU ; Min YU ; Yang CHEN ; Chunliang ZHOU ; Biao HUANG ; Ziyi LIANG ; Sujuan CHEN ; Jianhao LI ; Guanhao HE ; Tao LIU ; Hua GUO ; Wenjun MA
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(4):566-572
Objective:To evaluate the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality.Methods:A total of 61 421 fall-related mortality from 2013 to 2022 in 7 provinces of China were included in a time-stratified case-crossover design, with daily meteorological data derived from the fifth generation European Reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression chimeric distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality and stratified analysis was conducted according to gender and age.Results:Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of fall-related morality. The risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves was higher than during non-heatwave periods ( OR=1.11, 95% CI: 1.05-1.18). The attributable fraction of fall-related motality due to heatwaves was 10.25% (95% CI: 4.49%-15.36%). For each 1 ℃ increase above the heatwave threshold, the risk of fall-related mortality increased by 34% ( OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.02-1.76). The effect of heatwave duration on fall-related mortality was not statistically significant. Stratified analyses indicated that women experienced a higher risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves ( OR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.04-1.22) compared to man ( OR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.04-1.17). Conclusions:Heatwave increases the risk of fall-related mortality, and the intensity of heatwaves modify this risk. Women are vulnerable populations.
8.Establishment of a nucleic acid detection method for varicella-zoster virus based on RAA-CRISPR/Cas12a
Ziyi LI ; Ruichen WANG ; Haoze LIU ; Tianzi ZHANG ; Tianxin SHI ; Qianqian CUI ; Qikai YIN ; Fan LI ; Kai NIE ; Shihong FU ; Huanyu WANG ; Canlei SONG ; Qiufang XU ; Songtao XU
Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology 2025;39(2):242-249
Objective:To establish a method for the rapid detection of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) by recombinase-aid amplification (RAA) combined with Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/Cas12a system.Methods:Clinical samples of suspected herpes zoster in Shandong province and Shanghai from 2023 to 2024 were collected, nucleic acids of positive samples were extracted, RAA-specific primers and crRNA (CRISPR RNA, crRNA) were designed for the conserved region of VZV, and the fluorescence intensity generated by Cas12a non-specific cleavage of single-stranded fluorescent probes was used to screen highly sensitive crRNAs and optimize the concentrations of crRNA, Cas12a and ssDNA probes. The sensitivity and reproducibility of the RAA-CRISPR/Cas12a detection method were evaluated by using synthesized plasmids and clinical samples, and the specificity of the method was evaluated by using other viral nucleic acids. The method was used to detect clinical samples by using the method and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) method, and the detection rate and consistency of the two method were compared.Results:The highly sensitive crRNA-4 was screened from the four crRNAs designed, and a VZV detection method for RAA-CRISPR/CAS12a based on fluorescence intensity measurement was established, which could be detected at 37℃ in 45 min, and the sensitivity of the detection could reach 10 copies/μL, a minimum clinical sample with a Ct value of 38.980 can be detected. It has high specificity and no cross-reactivity with Adenovirus 7, Herpes simplex virus type I, Herpes simplex virus type II, Coxsackieviruses A16, Cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, Measles virus, Mumps virus, Enterovirus 71, Japanese encephalitis virus genotype 5. It has good stability, and can be successfully detected in low, medium and high concentrations of viral positive plasmids with good consistency. The detection rate of the clinically positive samples was 100%, which was completely consistent with the qPCR test result.Conclusions:RAA isothermal amplification technology combined with CRISPR-CAS12a technology was used to establish an accurate method for the detection of VZV virus, which was highly sensitive, specific, and had low requirements for experimental conditions, and could be completed within 45 min, which could provide strong technical support for the early detection of VZV.
9.Regional distribution of depressive symptoms in middle-aged and portioulate matter elderly Chinese population and its ecological association with particulate matter 25
Ziyi LUO ; Shijia YUAN ; Ronghang LIU ; Wenhui GAO ; Chunlei HAN
Chinese Mental Health Journal 2025;39(7):597-603
Objective:Against the backdrop of population aging and air pollution,this study examined the re-gional distribution of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and elderly people in China and explores the influ-ence of patrticulate matter 2.5(PM2.5)concentration on these symptoms.This study examined the regional distri-bution of depressive symptoms in middle-aged and elderly people in China and explores the influence of PM2.5 concentration and related factors on these symptoms.Methods:Middle-aged and elderly people aged 45 years and above in CHARLS database in 2013,2015 and 2018 were selected as research objects,and the Center for Epidemio-logic Studies Depression Scale(CESD-10)to obtain the detection rate of depressive symptoms.The PM2.5 concen-tration data were derived from the annual data of the China Environmental Monitoring Station.t-test,x2 test and DID model were used to analyze the related factors of depressive symptoms.Stata17.0 and Arc GIS10.8 were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the regional distribution and relationship of depressive symptoms in mid-dle-aged and elderly people in China.Results:From east to west,the detection rate of depressive symptoms in mid-dle-aged and elderly people in China showed an increasing trend.The regional distribution of PM2.5 mainly showed that the central region was higher than the northern and southern regions and the western region(except Xinjiang)was higher than the eastern region.Conclusion:Both the PM2.5 concentration and depression symptoms exhibit spatial clustering across China.PM2.5 has a negative impact on depression symptoms in middle-aged and elderly people,with other related factors including gender,age,education level,marital status,living area,smoking status.
10.Biomechanical analysis of three internal fixation schemes for Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fractures in young adults
Ziyi ZHANG ; Qi QIN ; ALIMUJIANG·YUSUFU ; Yuzhe LIU ; YUSUFU·REHEMAN ; Jian RAN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(33):7102-7108
BACKGROUND:The treatment of Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fractures in young adults is extremely difficult.When treating Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fractures with internal fixation,it is not only necessary to ensure the mechanical stability of the internal fixation,but also to ensure that it can resist the impact of shear,compression and tension,so as to prevent the internal fixation from breaking or loosening due to fatigue during the fracture healing process.However,existing internal fixation methods do not fully meet our requirements for the treatment of this fracture.OBJECTIVE:To provide a more reasonable and effective choice of internal fixation mode for clinicians in the treatment of young adults with Pauwels type Ⅲfemoral neck fracture,so as to optimize the treatment effect,reduce the occurrence of complications,and improve the recovery speed and quality of life of patients.METHODS:A femoral neck fracture model with Pauwels angle of 70° was constructed using CT data extracted from volunteers,and three placement modes were set up:(1)femoral neck system group:the main nail of femoral neck system was located in the center of the femoral neck axis.(2)Combination group:The main nail of femoral neck system was located in the lower third of the femoral neck axis,and a cannulated compression screw was located in the upper third of the femoral neck axis.(3)Cannulated compression screw group:The arrangement of three cannulated compression screws was arranged in the classic inverted triangle shape to ensure the maximum fixed effect.Stress distribution and displacement of proximal femoral fracture fragments and internal fixation devices were analyzed under three different internal fixation methods.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The stress of the proximal femur models in the three groups was concentrated near the fracture line:combination group(201.10 MPa)<femoral neck system group(222.25 MPa)<cannulated compression screw group(271.25 MPa).(2)The peak value of proximal femur displacement was located at the top:combination group(6.33 mm)<femoral neck system group(9.37 mm)<cannulated compression screw group(9.92 mm).(3)The internal fixation stress was concentrated on the screw surface at the broken end of the fracture and gradually extended from there to both sides;cannulated compression screw group(136.67 MPa)<combination group(201.10 MPa)<femoral neck system group(222.25 MPa).(4)The maximum displacement of the internal fixation device model was located at the very top of the internal fixation.The three groups gradually decreased from the top to the far end.The peak displacement values of combination group(6.21 mm)<femoral neck system group(9.19 mm)<cannulated compression screw group(9.51 mm).(5)The stress of proximal bone mass in the three models was mainly concentrated in the fracture end,especially in the lower part of the fracture end.This indicates that these regions were subjected to greater stress and strain during mechanical transfer;combination group(24.96 MPa)<femoral neck system group(39.69 MPa)<cannulated compression screw group(44.47 MPa).(6)The results indicate that the internal fixation strategy of femoral neck system combined with cannulated compression screw arranged in parallel coronal surface shows higher biomechanical stability than single femoral neck system fixation or cannulated compression screw in inverted triangle arrangement fixation,and provides a more reliable and effective solution for the treatment of Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fracture in young adults.

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