1.Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause Mortality and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural China: 10-Year Follow-up of a Population-Based Multicenter Prospective Study.
Juan Juan HUANG ; Yuan Zhi DI ; Ling Yu SHEN ; Jian Guo LIANG ; Jiang DU ; Xue Fang CAO ; Wei Tao DUAN ; Ai Wei HE ; Jun LIANG ; Li Mei ZHU ; Zi Sen LIU ; Fang LIU ; Shu Min YANG ; Zu Hui XU ; Cheng CHEN ; Bin ZHANG ; Jiao Xia YAN ; Yan Chun LIANG ; Rong LIU ; Tao ZHU ; Hong Zhi LI ; Fei SHEN ; Bo Xuan FENG ; Yi Jun HE ; Zi Han LI ; Ya Qi ZHAO ; Tong Lei GUO ; Li Qiong BAI ; Wei LU ; Qi JIN ; Lei GAO ; He Nan XIN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(10):1179-1193
OBJECTIVE:
This study aimed to explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality based on the 10-year population-based multicenter prospective study.
METHODS:
A general population-based multicenter prospective study was conducted at four sites in rural China between 2013 and 2023. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to assess the association between BMI and mortality. Stratified analyses were performed based on the individual characteristics of the participants.
RESULTS:
Overall, 19,107 participants with a sum of 163,095 person-years were included and 1,910 participants died. The underweight (< 18.5 kg/m 2) presented an increase in all-cause mortality (adjusted hazards ratio [ aHR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 1.66-2.41), while overweight (≥ 24.0 to < 28.0 kg/m 2) and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m 2) presented a decrease with an aHR of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.73) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.37-0.70), respectively. Overweight ( aHR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) and mild obesity ( aHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59-0.87) had a positive impact on mortality in people older than 60 years. All-cause mortality decreased rapidly until reaching a BMI of 25.7 kg/m 2 ( aHR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) and increased slightly above that value, indicating a U-shaped association. The beneficial impact of being overweight on mortality was robust in most subgroups and sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
This study provides additional evidence that overweight and mild obesity may be inversely related to the risk of death in individuals older than 60 years. Therefore, it is essential to consider age differences when formulating health and weight management strategies.
Humans
;
Body Mass Index
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Rural Population/statistics & numerical data*
;
Aged
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Adult
;
Mortality
;
Cause of Death
;
Obesity/mortality*
;
Overweight/mortality*
2.Rapid non-destructive detection technology for traditional Chinese medicine preparations based on machine learning: a review.
Xin-Hao WAN ; Qing TAO ; Zi-Qian WANG ; Dong-Yin YANG ; Zhi-Jian ZHONG ; Xiao-Rong LUO ; Ming YANG ; Xue-Cheng WANG ; Zhen-Feng WU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2024;49(24):6541-6548
In recent years, with the increasing societal focus on drug quality and safety, quality issues have become a major challenge faced by the pharmaceutical industry, directly impacting consumer health and market trust. By combining multispectral imaging technology with machine learning, it is possible to achieve rapid, non-destructive, and precise detection of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) preparations, thereby revolutionizing traditional detection methods and developing more convenient and automated solutions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the current applications of rapid, non-destructive detection techniques based on machine learning algorithms in the field of TCM preparations. It analyzed the principles and advantages of commonly used rapid, non-destructive detection techniques, offering a reference for the application and promotion of these technologies in TCM preparation detection. Additionally, this paper explored various data preprocessing techniques, operational processes, and machine learning algorithms to enhance data utilization efficiency. Finally, it focused on the challenges of applying machine learning in TCM preparation detection and offered corresponding recommendations, providing guidance for the future integration of machine learning with rapid, non-destructive detection techniques in practical production.
Machine Learning
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/analysis*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/methods*
;
Humans
;
Quality Control
3.Determination of physical properties and calibration of discrete element simulation parameters for Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules.
Zi-Qian WANG ; Fan WU ; Zhi-Jian ZHONG ; Xiao-Rong LUO ; Xin-Hao WAN ; Jia-Li LIAO ; Qing TAO ; Zhen-Feng WU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2024;49(24):6558-6564
The construction method and simulation parameter settings for the discrete element model of Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules, as the primary material of Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablets, are not yet clear. The accuracy of the simulation model significantly influences the dynamic response characteristics between granules. Therefore, it is necessary to calibrate the parameters to improve the accuracy of the simulation parameters. Using the repose angle of Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules as the response value, the response surface methodology was employed to optimize and calibrate the discrete element parameters. Physical experiments were conducted to determine the physical properties of Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules. Based on the Hertz-Mindlin with Johnson-Kendall-Roberts(JKR) V2 model and virtual simulation methods, a repose angle determination model was constructed in EDEM software. The repose angle was measured using image analysis and numerical fitting methods. The Plackett-Burman experiment was used to screen the initial parameters for significance in the discrete element simulation. The significant parameters were then subjected to a steepest ascent experiment to determine the optimal parameter range. Furthermore, based on the Box-Behnken experiment, a second-order regression equation between significant parameters and repose angle was established, with the repose angle of 37.64° in the physical experiment as the target value. The regression equation was optimized and solved. The significance screening experiment revealed that the granule-granule static friction coefficient, granule-granule rolling friction, and granule-steel plate rolling friction of Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules significantly influenced the simulated repose angle. The optimal parameter combination was found to be 0.330, 0.222, and 0.229. The simulation results with this optimal parameter combination showed that there was no significant difference between the simulated repose angle and the repose angle obtained in the physical experiment, with a relative error of 0.05%, which further validated the reliability of the calibrated discrete element parameters for Jianwei Xiaoshi Granules.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Calibration
;
Computer Simulation
4.Identification of CMAs of Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablet granules based on QbD concept and construction of their predictive model.
Xin-Hao WAN ; Zhi-Jian ZHONG ; Qing TAO ; Zi-Qian WANG ; Jia-Li LIAO ; Dong-Yin YANG ; Ming YANG ; Xiao-Rong LUO ; Zhen-Feng WU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2024;49(24):6565-6573
Identification of critical material attributes(CMAs) is a key issue in the quality control of large-scale TCM products like Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablets. This study focuses on the granules of Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablets, using tablet tensile strength as the primary quality attribute. A method for identifying the CMAs and a design space for the granules were established, along with a predictive model for the granule CMAs based on Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy(FT-NIR). First, granules of Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablets with different properties were prepared using a partial factorial design method from the design of experiments(DOE). The powder properties of the granules were measured. An orthogonal partial least squares(OPLS) model was established to correlate the powder properties with tensile strength. Based on the characteristics of the comprehensive variables extracted by OPLS, the independent variables with the greatest explanatory power for tensile strength were identified. FT-NIR technology was then employed to establish a predictive model for the granule CMAs. The final CMAs identified were hygroscopicity, moisture content, D_(50), collapse angle, mass flow rate, and tapped density. The coefficients of determination of the prediction set(R■) and relative percentage deviation(RPD) of the prediction set for flowability, D_(50), and moisture content were 0.891, 0.994, and 0.998; and 2.97, 12.4, and 20.7, respectively. The established OPLS model clearly identified the impact of various factors on tensile strength, demonstrating good fit results. The model exhibited high prediction accuracy and can be used for the rapid and accurate determination of CMAs in granules of Jianwei Xiaoshi Tablets.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Tablets/chemistry*
;
Tensile Strength
;
Quality Control
;
Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared
;
Spectroscopy, Near-Infrared
5.Analysis of prognostic factors of extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma treated with pegaspargase/L-asparaginase: a multicenter retrospective study.
Zi Yuan SHEN ; Xi Cheng CHEN ; Hui Rong SHAN ; Tao JIA ; Wei Ying GU ; Fei WANG ; Qing Ling TENG ; Ling WANG ; Chun Ling WANG ; Yu Ye SHI ; Hao ZHANG ; Yu Qing MIAO ; Tai Gang ZHU ; Chun Yan JI ; Jing Jing YE ; Ming Zhi ZHANG ; Xu Dong ZHANG ; Liang WANG ; Kai Lin XU ; Wei SANG
Chinese Journal of Hematology 2023;44(8):642-648
Objective: To explore the prognostic factors of extracellular NK/T cell lymphoma (ENKTL) treated with pegaspargase/L-asparaginase. Methods: The clinical data of 656 ENKTL patients diagnosed at 11 medical centers in the Huaihai Lymphoma Working Group from March 2014 to April 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training set (460 cases) and a validation set (196 cases) at 7∶3, and the prognostic factors of the patients were analyzed. A prognostic scoring system was established, and the predictive performance of different models was compared. Results: Patients' median age was 46 (34, 57) years, with 456 males (69.5% ) and 561 nasal involvement (85.5% ). 203 patients (30.9% ) received a chemotherapy regimen based on L-asparaginase combined with anthracyclines, and the 5-year overall survival rate of patients treated with P-GEMOX regimen (pegaspargase+gemcitabine+oxaliplatin) was better than those treated with SMILE regimen (methotrexate+dexamethasone+cyclophosphamide+L-asparaginase+etoposide) (85.9% vs 63.8% ; P=0.004). The results of multivariate analysis showed that gender, CA stage, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) score, HGB, and EB virus DNA were independent influencing factors for the prognosis of ENKTL patients (P<0.05). In this study, the predictive performance of the prognostic factors is superior to the international prognostic index, Korean prognostic index, and prognostic index of natural killer lymphoma. Conclusion: Gender, CA stage, ECOG PS score, HGB, and EB virus DNA are prognostic factors for ENKTL patients treated with pegaspargase/L-asparaginase.
Male
;
Humans
;
Middle Aged
;
Asparaginase/therapeutic use*
;
Prognosis
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Lymphoma, Extranodal NK-T-Cell/drug therapy*
;
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use*
;
Etoposide
;
Cyclophosphamide
;
Methotrexate/therapeutic use*
;
DNA/therapeutic use*
;
Treatment Outcome
6.Association of maternal isolated thyroid peroxidase antibody positive in the first trimester with fetal growth.
Jin Hui XU ; Na HAN ; Tao SU ; Li Zi LIN ; Yue Long JI ; Shuang ZHOU ; He Ling BAO ; Zheng LIU ; Shu Sheng LUO ; Xiang Rong XU ; Hai Jun WANG
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2023;55(5):886-892
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the association of isolated thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) positive in the first trimester with fetal growth.
METHODS:
A total of 16 446 pregnant women were included in the birth cohort study, whose last menstrual period was between May 2016 and April 2019 and with singleton pregnancy. Maternal serum samples were collected when they firstly came for prenatal care in the first trimester. The pregnant women were consecutively seen and followed in the hospital and the information of pregnant women was extracted from the electronic medical information system. The pregnant women were divided into isolated TPOAb positive group (n=1 654) and euthyroid group (n=14 792). Three fetal ultrasound examinations were scheduled during the routine prenatal visits at the hospital and were performed by trained sonographers. All fetal growth indicators were quantified as gestational age- and gender- adjusted standard deviation score (Z-score) using the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). Fetal growth indicators included estimated fetal weight (EFW), abdominal circumference (AC), biparietal diameter (BPD), femur length (FL) and head circumference (HC). Fetal growth restriction (FGR) was defined as AC or EFW Z-score<3rd centile based on clinical consensus. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) analysis was applied to assess the association of maternal isolated TPOAb positive with fetal growth. The generalized linear model was further used to analyze the association between isolated TPOAb positive and fetal growth indicator at different gestational ages when the fetal growth indicator was significantly associated with isolated TPOAb positive in the GEE mo-del.
RESULTS:
The median gestational age at three ultrasound measurements was 23.6 (23.3, 24.1), 30.3 (29.7, 30.9), 37.3 (37.0, 37.7) weeks, respectively. The BPD Z-score was higher in isolated TPOAb positive women, compared with the euthyroid pregnant women after adjustment (β=0.057, 95%CI: 0.014-0.100, P=0.009). The generalized linear model showed the BPD Z-score was higher in the isolated TPOAb positive women at the end of 21-25 weeks (β=0.052, 95%CI: 0.001-0.103, P=0.044), 29-32 weeks (β=0.055, 95%CI: 0.004-0.107, P=0.035) and 36-40 weeks (β=0.068, 95%CI: 0.011-0.125, P=0.020), compared with the euthyroid pregnant women. There was no difference in other fetal growth indicators (EFW, AC, FL and HC) and FGR between the isolated TPOAb positive and euthyroid pregnant women.
CONCLUSION
The BPD Z-score was slightly increased in the isolated TPOAb positive pregnant women in the first trimester, while other fetal growth indicators were not changed. The reproducibility and practical significance of this result need to be confirmed.
Pregnancy
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Pregnancy Trimester, First
;
Iodide Peroxidase
;
Cohort Studies
;
Reproducibility of Results
;
Fetal Development
;
Fetal Weight
;
Fetal Growth Retardation
;
Ultrasonography, Prenatal
7.Anti-inflammatory mechanism of active ingredients in Jingfang Mixture based on network pharmacology and experimental verification.
Qun FENG ; Cheng-Hong SUN ; Shi-Rong LI ; Xiang-Zi LI ; Min XIAO ; Tao ZHAO ; Gui-Min ZHANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2022;47(20):5481-5487
The present study aimed to explore the regulatory targets and anti-inflammatory mechanism of Jingfang Mixture based on network pharmacology and animal tests. The active ingredients of Jingfang Mixture and the corresponding targets were screened out by the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform(TCMSP). Inflammation-related targets were searched from GeneCards and DisGeNET, and the targets of active ingredients of Jingfang Mixture against inflammation were obtained. The protein-protein interaction(PPI) network was analyzed by STRING and plotted. Gene ontology(GO) function and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were carried out based on DAVID. The results of network pharmacology showed 159 active ingredients and 276 targets of Jingfang Mixture and 664 inflammation-related targets were screened out, and 90 targets of active ingredients of Jingfang Mixture against inflammation were obtained. As revealed by the PPI network, protein kinase B1(AKT1), caspase-3(CASP3), interleukin-1β(IL1 B), prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2(PTGS2), and tumor necrosis factor(TNF) might be the key proteins for the anti-inflammatory effect of Jingfang Mixture. KEGG enrichment analysis demonstrated the pathways involved TNF, nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-κB), and mitogen-activated protein kinase(MAPK). The anti-inflammatory effect of Jingfang Mixture was explored through the mouse model of urticaria. The results indicated that Jingfang Mixture could down-regulate the phosphorylation levels of p38 MAPK, extracellular regulated protein kinases(ERK1/2), and NF-κB. The present study revealed the anti-inflammatory effect of Jingfang Mixture with multi-component and multi-target characteristics, which is expected to provide a scientific basis and important support for further research, development, and application.
Animals
;
Mice
;
Anti-Inflammatory Agents/therapeutic use*
;
Cyclooxygenase 2
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Inflammation/drug therapy*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Molecular Docking Simulation
;
Network Pharmacology
;
NF-kappa B/genetics*
8.Mid-term efficacy of China Net Childhood Lymphoma-mature B-cell lymphoma 2017 regimen in the treatment of pediatric Burkitt lymphoma.
Meng ZHANG ; Pan WU ; Yan Long DUAN ; Ling JIN ; Jing YANG ; Shuang HUANG ; Ying LIU ; Bo HU ; Xiao Wen ZHAI ; Hong Sheng WANG ; Yang FU ; Fu LI ; Xiao Mei YANG ; An Sheng LIU ; Shuang QIN ; Xiao Jun YUAN ; Yu Shuang DONG ; Wei LIU ; Jian Wen ZHOU ; Le Ping ZHANG ; Yue Ping JIA ; Jian WANG ; Li Jun QU ; Yun Peng DAI ; Guo Tao GUAN ; Li Rong SUN ; Jian JIANG ; Rong LIU ; Run Ming JIN ; Zhu Jun WANG ; Xi Ge WANG ; Bao Xi ZHANG ; Kai Lan CHEN ; Shu Quan ZHUANG ; Jing ZHANG ; Chun Ju ZHOU ; Zi Fen GAO ; Min Cui ZHENG ; Yonghong ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2022;60(10):1011-1018
Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics of children with Burkitt lymphoma (BL) and to summarize the mid-term efficacy of China Net Childhood Lymphoma-mature B-cell lymphoma 2017 (CNCL-B-NHL-2017) regimen. Methods: Clinical features of 436 BL patients who were ≤18 years old and treated with the CNCL-B-NHL-2017 regimen from May 2017 to April 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. Clinical characteristics of patients at disease onset were analyzed and the therapeutic effects of patients with different clinical stages and risk groups were compared. Survival analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox regression was used to identify the prognostic factors. Results: Among 436 patients, there were 368 (84.4%) males and 68 (15.6%) females, the age of disease onset was 6.0 (4.0, 9.0) years old. According to the St. Jude staging system, there were 4 patients (0.9%) with stage Ⅰ, 30 patients (6.9%) with stage Ⅱ, 217 patients (49.8%) with stage Ⅲ, and 185 patients (42.4%) with stage Ⅳ. All patients were stratified into following risk groups: group A (n=1, 0.2%), group B1 (n=46, 10.6%), group B2 (n=19, 4.4%), group C1 (n=285, 65.4%), group C2 (n=85, 19.5%). Sixty-three patients (14.4%) were treated with chemotherapy only and 373 patients (85.6%) were treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab. Twenty-one patients (4.8%) suffered from progressive disease, 3 patients (0.7%) relapsed, and 13 patients (3.0%) died of treatment-related complications. The follow-up time of all patients was 24.0 (13.0, 35.0) months, the 2-year event free survival (EFS) rate of all patients was (90.9±1.4) %. The 2-year EFS rates of group A, B1, B2, C1 and C2 were 100.0%, 100.0%, (94.7±5.1) %, (90.7±1.7) % and (85.9±4.0) %, respectively. The 2-year EFS rates was higher in group A, B1, and B2 than those in group C1 (χ2=4.16, P=0.041) and group C2 (χ2=7.21, P=0.007). The 2-year EFS rates of the patients treated with chemotherapy alone and those treated with chemotherapy combined with rituximab were (79.3±5.1)% and (92.9±1.4)% (χ2=14.23, P<0.001) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that stage Ⅳ (including leukemia stage), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)>4-fold normal value, and with residual tumor in the mid-term evaluation were risk factors for poor prognosis (HR=1.38,1.23,8.52,95%CI 1.05-1.82,1.05-1.43,3.96-18.30). Conclusions: The CNCL-B-NHL-2017 regimen show significant effect in the treatment of pediatric BL. The combination of rituximab improve the efficacy further.
Adolescent
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Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use*
;
Burkitt Lymphoma/drug therapy*
;
Child
;
Disease-Free Survival
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Lactate Dehydrogenases
;
Lymphoma, B-Cell/drug therapy*
;
Male
;
Prognosis
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Rituximab/therapeutic use*
;
Treatment Outcome
9. The effects of the recommended prescription for COVID-2019-lung-spleen qi deficiency on in vitro SARS-CoV-2 replication and pro-inflammatory factors expression
Pei-Fang XIE ; Hong-Mei LI ; Yu-Lanl SHAO ; Yue FANG ; Zhi-Li SHEN ; Shu-Wei DONG ; Xue-Shan XIA ; Hui LI ; Rong-Tao LI ; Hong-Jun YANG ; Qin-Hai MA ; Fang LI ; Zi-Feng YANG ; Jin-Cun ZHAO
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2022;38(3):460-469
Aim To determine the antiviral and anti-inflammatory effects of the recommended prescription for COVID-2019-lung-spleen qi deficiency(4-1)against in vitro infection of SARS-CoV-2 and common coronaviruses.Methods The main chemical substances of 4-1 were analyzed by LC-MS.The toxicity and antiviral effects of of 4-1 were detected by MTT and by CPE assay, respectively.The viral loads in cell supernatant and the expression of inflammatory factors induced by viral infection were determined by qRT-PCR.Results The recommended prescription 4-1 contained 94 chemical compounds, including flavonoids, steroids, sesquiterpenoids, and so on.The range of selection indexes for SARS-CoV-2 and common coronaviruses was 8.44±0.4952.26±2.3.This prescription could inhibit the proliferation of SARS-CoV-2, the expression of ACE2 and S mRNA, and down regulate IL-1α and CCL-5/RANTES at 10, 5, and 2.5 g•L-1 doses.Further, at doses of 20, 10 and 5 g•L-1, it could inhibit the proliferation of three common coronaviruses and suppress the overexpression of IL-6, CXCL-8/IL-8, CXCL-10/IP-10, TNF-α, IFN-α, CCL-2/MCP-1, MIG and CCL-5/RANTES induced by OC43/229E infection.The inhibitory effects were dose-dependent.Conclusions The prescription 4-1 has antiviral and anti-inflammation effects against multiple coronaviruses.This study provides the research basis for the treatment of common respiratory viral infections and emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19 by using traditional Chinese medicine.
10.Nomogram to predict pregnancy outcomes of emergency oocyte freeze-thaw cycles.
Yang WANG ; Zi-Ru NIU ; Li-Yuan TAO ; Xiao-Ying ZHENG ; Yi-Feng YUAN ; Ping LIU ; Rong LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2021;134(19):2306-2315
BACKGROUND:
Existing clinical prediction models for in vitro fertilization are based on the fresh oocyte cycle, and there is no prediction model to evaluate the probability of successful thawing of cryopreserved mature oocytes. This research aims to identify and study the characteristics of pre-oocyte-retrieval patients that can affect the pregnancy outcomes of emergency oocyte freeze-thaw cycles.
METHODS:
Data were collected from the Reproductive Center, Peking University Third Hospital of China. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to derive the nomogram. Nomogram model performance was assessed by examining the discrimination and calibration in the development and validation cohorts. Discriminatory ability was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots.
RESULTS:
The predictors in the model of "no transferable embryo cycles" are female age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.099, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.003-1.205, P = 0.0440), duration of infertility (OR = 1.140, 95% CI = 1.018-1.276, P = 0.0240), basal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) level (OR = 1.205, 95% CI = 1.051-1.382, P = 0.0084), basal estradiol (E2) level (OR = 1.006, 95% CI = 1.001-1.010, P = 0.0120), and sperm from microdissection testicular sperm extraction (MESA) (OR = 7.741, 95% CI = 2.905-20.632, P < 0.0010). Upon assessing predictive ability, the AUC for the "no transferable embryo cycles" model was 0.799 (95% CI: 0.722-0.875, P < 0.0010). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.7210) and calibration curve showed good calibration for the prediction of no transferable embryo cycles. The predictors in the cumulative live birth were the number of follicles on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) administration (OR = 1.088, 95% CI = 1.030-1.149, P = 0.0020) and endometriosis (OR = 0.172, 95% CI = 0.035-0.853, P = 0.0310). The AUC for the "cumulative live birth" model was 0.724 (95% CI: 0.647-0.801, P < 0.0010). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.5620) and calibration curve showed good calibration for the prediction of cumulative live birth.
CONCLUSIONS
The predictors in the final multivariate logistic regression models found to be significantly associated with poor pregnancy outcomes were increasing female age, duration of infertility, high basal FSH and E2 level, endometriosis, sperm from MESA, and low number of follicles with a diameter >10 mm on the day of hCG administration.
Embryo Transfer
;
Female
;
Fertilization in Vitro
;
Humans
;
Nomograms
;
Oocytes
;
Ovulation Induction
;
Pregnancy
;
Pregnancy Outcome
;
Pregnancy Rate
;
Retrospective Studies

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