1.Factors Affecting Survival of 4892 Patients with Colorectal Cancer in Yunnan Province
Ruiqi CAI ; Zhijian YANG ; Yanyan YANG ; Guoyu MA ; Yuying PANG ; Mengjiao ZHANG ; Lei LUO ; Sile LI ; Min ZHAO
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(4):274-280
Objective To analyze survival outcomes and influencing factors among patients with colorectal cancer in Yunnan Province. Methods Clinical data were retrospectively collected from 4 892 patients with colorectal cancer. Survival data were obtained through follow-up. Overall survival (OS) was calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate analysis was performed by applying the log-rank test. Meanwhile, multivariate analysis employed the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates for the entire cohort were 91.90%, 74.40%, 64.40%, and 28.70%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that age, ethnicity, region, differentiation grade, TNM stage, clinical stage, metastatic status, histological type, and treatment modality (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery) were associated with patient prognosis (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis identified age (HR=1.250), region (HR=1.262), differentiation grade (HR=0.761), clinical stage (HR=3.128), and treatment modality (chemotherapy, HR=0.644; radiotherapy, HR=1.605; surgery, HR=0.384) as independent factors affecting survival prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer (all P<0.001). Conclusion Age, region, clinical stage, and treatment modality are independent factors influencing survival among patients with colorectal cancer in Yunnan Province. In clinical practice, these factors should be integrated to develop individualized prevention and treatment strategies, thereby improving patient outcomes.
2.Current Status and Optimization Strategies for Setting Objective Performance Criteria in Clinical Trials of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Jiaqi LAI ; Qian HUANG ; Xueyin CHEN ; Shaonan LIU ; Lihong YANG ; MIMAZHUOGA ; DAWA ; Zhijian LI ; Tuerxun WUFUER ; Xinfeng GUO
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(13):1461-1464
Current formulation of objective performance criteria (OPC) in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) faces methodological challenges, including poor reporting quality, insufficient standardization of methods, limited comparability of study populations, and inadequate consideration of the genetic and environment particularities of ethnic minority populations. In response to these issues, this paper proposes optimization strategies for setting OPC in TCM, with particular attention to ethnic minority medicine. These include improving methodological techniques and statistical descriptions, ensuring transparency in meta-analyses and data sources; standardizing the estimation of point estimates and confidence intervals, and incorporating multidisciplinary expert consensus for value determination; introducing local real-world data from the same period, especially cohort study evidence, to compensate for the lack of high-quality randomized controlled trial data. Through process transparency and dynamic updating mechanisms, the credibility of OPC method can be enhanced, thereby providing methodological support for strengthening evidence-based research capacity in this field.
3.Iodine nutrition status and influencing factors of children and adolescents in Zhejiang Province in 2022
Guangming MAO ; Jiaxin HE ; Zhe MO ; Simeng GU ; Fanjia GUO ; Sujun YAN ; Xinhan ZHANG ; Yuanyang WANG ; Yahui LI ; Zhijian CHEN ; Xiaofeng WANG ; Xiaoming LOU ; Chenyang LIU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(6):451-457
Objective:To analyze the iodine nutrition status of children and adolescents and influencing factors in Zhejiang Province, providing scientific basis for optimizing iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) prevention and control strategies.Methods:In June 2022, a multistage stratified sampling method was used to divide 16 counties (cities, districts, abbreviated as counties) in Zhejiang Province into three categories based on their geographical locations (average distance from the coastline): coastal areas (including Dinghai District, Jiaojiang District, Sanmen County, Cixi City and Lucheng District), sub-coastal areas (including Wuxing District, Haining City, Linping District, Fuyang District and Fenghua District), and inland areas(including Suichang County, Changshan County, Shengzhou City, Jindong District, Dongyang City and Yongjia County). One county was selected from each category, and one township (street) was selected from each county. Two administrative villages (neighborhood committees) were selected from each township (street). Ten households including all children and adolescents aged 6-17 in each household were selected from each administrative village (neighborhood committee). Demographic information and personal dietary characteristics were collected via questionnaires, while household salt and a random urine sample were tested for iodine level. Trend analysis was conducted using a χ 2trend test, and a multivariate logistic stepwise regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of urinary iodine levels. Results:A total of 755 children and adolescents aged 6-17 were selected, including 387 males (51.26%) and 368 females (48.74%), with an age of (11.24 ± 3.32) years. There were 269 children and adolescents in coastal areas (35.63%) and 409 children and adolescents in urban areas (54.17%). A total of 755 household salt samples were collected, with a median salt iodine concentration of 21.80 mg/kg. These included 263 non-iodized salt samples, 38 unqualified iodized salt samples, and 454 qualified iodized salt samples. The coverage rate of iodized salt was 65.17% (492/755), and the consumption rate of qualified iodized salt was 60.13% (454/755). The distribution of salt iodine quality among children and adolescents in different geographical locations showed statistically significant differences (χ 2 = 111.95, P < 0.001), with the proportion of non-iodized salt gradually decreasing from coastal areas to inland areas (χ 2trend = 90.17, P < 0.001). A total of 755 urine samples were collected, with a median urinary iodine concentration of 186.60 μg/L. The proportions of urinary iodine < 100, 100-199, 200-299, and ≥300 μg/L were 16.95% (128/755), 37.62% (284/755), 24.37% (184/755), and 21.06% (159/755), respectively. The χ 2trend test revealed a nonlinear positive correlation between salt iodine level and urinary iodine level (χ 2regression = 21.98, P < 0.001; χ 2partial = 6.96, P < 0.001). The frequency distribution of urinary iodine in children and adolescents from different geographical locations and between urban and rural areas showed statistically significant differences (χ 2 = 29.63, 16.56, P < 0.001). Among them, the proportion of children and adolescents with urinary iodine < 100 μg/L gradually decreasing from coastal areas to inland areas (χ 2trend = 6.15, P = 0.013). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that sub-coastal regions, inland regions, and urban-rural regions ( OR = 1.57, 1.53, 1.64, 95% CI: 1.11-2.24, 1.03-2.27, 1.17-2.32, P < 0.05) were significantly associated with urinary iodine levels in children and adolescents aged 6-17. Conclusions:In 2022, the iodine nutrition of children and adolescents in Zhejiang Province is generally suitable, but there is a risk of iodine deficiency among coastal children and adolescents. Geographic location and urban/rural areas are influencing factors on iodine nutrition status of children and adolescents in Zhejiang Province.
4.MRI-based radiomics and deep learning model construction:non-invasive differentiation of molecular subtypes in primary intracranial diffuse large B-cell lymphoma
Yanwei ZENG ; Zhijian XU ; Xin CAO ; Kun LÜ ; Huiming LI ; Min GAO ; Shenghong JU ; Jun LIU ; Daoying GENG
China Oncology 2025;35(8):735-742
Background and purpose:Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma(DLBCL)is subclassified into germinal center B-cell-like(GCB)and non-GCB subtypes,which differ in prognosis and treatment response.However,current distinction still relies on invasive pathological assays.This study developed radiomics and deep-learning models based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)to non-invasively differentiate the two subtypes preoperatively,thereby reducing dependence on histopathological examination.Methods:This study retrospectively included patients with pathologically confirmed DLBCL diagnosed at Huashan Hospital,Fudan University,and other institutions between March 2013 and December 2024.Using multiparametric MRI data,we developed DLBCL-subtype classification models that combined 4 radiomics-based machine-learning algorithms:support vector machine(SVM),logistic regression(LR),Gaussian process(GP)and Naive Bayes(NB),with 3 deep-learning architectures[densely-connected convolutional networks 121(DenseNet121),residual network 101(ResNet101)and EfficientNet-b5].Additionally,two radiologists with different experience levels independently classified DLBCL on MRI in a blinded fashion.Model and radiologist performance were quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC),accuracy(ACC),and F1-score to evaluate their ability to distinguish GCB from non-GCB subtypes.This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Huashan Hospital of Fudan University(No.KY2024-663),and all patients signed informed consents.Results:A total of 173 patients were enrolled(55 with GCB subtype and 118 with non-GCB subtype).Radiomics and deep learning methods effectively distinguished DLBCL subtypes.Among these,the GP radiomics model(based on T1-CE+T2-FLAIR+ADC sequences)and DenseNet121 deep learning model(based on T1-CE+T2-FLAIR+ADC sequences)demonstrated optimal performance.Both achieved excellent results on the internal validation set(GP:AUC=0.900,ACC=0.896,F1=0.840;DenseNet121:AUC=0.846,ACC=0.854,F1=0.774)and maintained robustness on the external validation set.Furthermore,the classification efficacy of the optimal AI model surpassed that of experienced radiologists(highest physician AUC=0.678).Conclusion:Radiomics and deep-learning models based on multiparametric MRI features can effectively differentiate GCB from non-GCB subtypes of DLBCL.Among them,GP and DenseNet121 exhibit outstanding performance,especially when integrating multi-sequence feature sets for classifying DLBCL subtypes on complex imaging data.
5.Role of respiratory microbiota in the tumor immune microenvironment and immunotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer
Wenbo DONG ; Haoyang YU ; Yifan ZHU ; Zhijian ZHANG ; Wenyang LI ; Delei KONG
Journal of China Medical University 2025;54(1):82-86
Microbiota can be recognized by the human immune system,trigger specific immune responses,and play a significant role in the onset and progression of diseases through intricate regulatory mechanisms.The tumor microenvironment comprises the peritumoral extracellular matrix,immune cells,tumor-associated fibroblasts,and endothelial cells,among others.In this context,the tumor immune microenvironment,characterized by immune cells,significantly influences cancer progression and treatment.Notably,the tumor immune microenvironment is closely associated with the tumor microbiota.The presence of respiratory microbiota is correlated with the typing and staging of non-small cell lung cancer.This study investigated the mechanisms by which respiratory microbiota affect innate and adaptive immune cells within the tumor immune microenvironment and explored the role of respiratory microbiota in the immunotherapy of non-small cell lung cancer.The aim was to identify potential biomarkers that could enhance the diagnosis and treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.
6.Changes in choroidal morphology and blood perfusion in patients with macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion after intravitreal injections of ranibizumab
Yuanyuan QI ; Zhiyu XU ; Chunshi LI ; Zhijian ZHANG ; Sheng LI ; Lijun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(1):52-59
Objective:To observe the changes in choroidal morphology and blood perfusion in patients with macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion (RVO) after intravitreal injections of ranibizumab.Methods:A cohort study was performed.A total of 157 patients (157 eyes) with macular edema secondary to monocular acute retinal vein occlusion (RVO) were enrolled in the Third People's Hospital of Dalian from January 2022 to March 2023.There were 66 cases (66 eyes) with central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) and 91 cases (91 eyes) with branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO).All patients were treated with 3+ pro re nata (PRN) regimen of ranibizumab.Before and 1 month after each injection, the central retinal thickness of the macula was measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT).Clear images of the choroid were obtained using the OCT enhanced depth scan mode.Subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFCT), the nasal choroidal thickness at 1 500 μm of macula (CT N1.5 mm), the temporal choroidal thickness at 1 500 μm of macula (CT T1.5 mm) were measured and mean macular thickness (CT Mean) was calculated.Binarization of choroidal images processed by ImageJ software was used to analyze luminal area (LA), stromal area (SA) and total choroidal area (TCA), and choroidal vascularity index (CVI) was calculated.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Third People's Hospital of Dalian (No.2023-145-001).Results:SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA, SA, TCA and CVI of RVO eyes were higher than those of the contralateral eyes and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.01).CT Mean in CRVO group was (326.99±64.92)μm, which was higher than (299.80±73.08)μm in BRVO group, with a statistically significant difference ( t=2.41, P=0.02).Baseline CVI values in CRVO group and BRVO group were (72.50±5.62)% and (72.33±5.85)%, respectively, with no significant difference ( t=0.187, P=0.85).In eyes with RVO, CRVO and BRVO, SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA, SA, TCA and CVI after every injection were lower than the baseline and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05).In eyes with CRVO, there was no significant difference in LA and CVI between first and second injections (both P>0.05), and SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, SA and TCA after second injection were lower than those after first injection with statistically significant differences (all P<0.05).In eyes with BRVO, there was no significant difference in SA and CVI between first and second injections (both P>0.05), and SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA and TCA after second injection were lower than those after first injection with statistically significant differences (all P<0.05).In eyes with RVO, CRVO and BRVO, there was no significant difference in SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, SA, TCA and CVI between second and third injections (all P>0.05). Conclusions:After intravitreal injection of ranibizumab, the choroidal thickness becomes thinner and CVI decreases in eyes with macular edema secondary to RVO, and remain relatively stable after the second injection.
7.Risk factor analysis and predictive indicators of postpartum haemorrhage in singleton pregnant women with severe preeclampsia
Yunting ZHUANG ; Yao SONG ; Qian CHEN ; Yanxuan XIAO ; Tian TAN ; Wen-hui LI ; Ruiyan BAI ; Zeshan LIN ; Zhijian WANG
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(8):1155-1160
Objective To analyze the risk factors and effective predictive indicators for postpartum hemor-rhage(PPH)in pregnant women with severe pre-eclampsia(sPE)in singleton pregnancies.The findings will serve as a valuable reference for the clinical prevention and management of PPH in these patients.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 932 pregnant women with sPE at two tertiary hospitals in Guangzhou from January 1,2016,to December 31,2022.Among these,95 cases were complicated by PPH.A comparative analysis was performed between the sPE group and the sPE with PPH group.Results(1)The incidence of assisted reproductive technology,intrapartum blood loss,placental abruption,elevated D-dimer levels,increased monocyte counts,and higher SIRI levels were significantly higher in the PPH group,whereas platelet counts were significantly lower(P<0.05).(2)The results indicated that intrapartum blood loss,D-dimer levels,and platelet counts were inde-pendently associated with PPH in pregnant women with sPE.(3)The area under the curve(AUC)for intrapartum blood loss,D-dimer,and platelet counts were 0.805,0.717,and 0.571,respectively.The optimal cutoff value for D-dimer was determined to be 2.295 μg/mL.The combined AUC for intrapartum blood loss and D-dimer was 0.859.(4)Intrapartum blood loss values were significantly higher in the PPH group for both vaginal delivery and cesarean section(P<0.001).The corresponding optimal cutoff values were 285 mL and 375 mL,respectively.Conclusions Intrapartum haemorrhage,D-dimer levels,and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for PPH in pregnant women with sPE.Specifically,pregnant women with sPE who experienced blood loss exceeding 285 mL during vaginal delivery or 375 mL during caesarean section,along with a D-dimer level greater than 2.295 μg/mL,demonstrated an increased likelihood of developing PPH.Therefore,it is crucial to enhance clinical monitoring of these relevant indicators in high-risk populations.
8.Changes in choroidal morphology and blood perfusion in patients with macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion after intravitreal injections of ranibizumab
Yuanyuan QI ; Zhiyu XU ; Chunshi LI ; Zhijian ZHANG ; Sheng LI ; Lijun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Ophthalmology 2025;43(1):52-59
Objective:To observe the changes in choroidal morphology and blood perfusion in patients with macular edema secondary to retinal vein occlusion (RVO) after intravitreal injections of ranibizumab.Methods:A cohort study was performed.A total of 157 patients (157 eyes) with macular edema secondary to monocular acute retinal vein occlusion (RVO) were enrolled in the Third People's Hospital of Dalian from January 2022 to March 2023.There were 66 cases (66 eyes) with central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) and 91 cases (91 eyes) with branch retinal vein occlusion (BRVO).All patients were treated with 3+ pro re nata (PRN) regimen of ranibizumab.Before and 1 month after each injection, the central retinal thickness of the macula was measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT).Clear images of the choroid were obtained using the OCT enhanced depth scan mode.Subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFCT), the nasal choroidal thickness at 1 500 μm of macula (CT N1.5 mm), the temporal choroidal thickness at 1 500 μm of macula (CT T1.5 mm) were measured and mean macular thickness (CT Mean) was calculated.Binarization of choroidal images processed by ImageJ software was used to analyze luminal area (LA), stromal area (SA) and total choroidal area (TCA), and choroidal vascularity index (CVI) was calculated.This study adhered to the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Third People's Hospital of Dalian (No.2023-145-001).Results:SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA, SA, TCA and CVI of RVO eyes were higher than those of the contralateral eyes and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.01).CT Mean in CRVO group was (326.99±64.92)μm, which was higher than (299.80±73.08)μm in BRVO group, with a statistically significant difference ( t=2.41, P=0.02).Baseline CVI values in CRVO group and BRVO group were (72.50±5.62)% and (72.33±5.85)%, respectively, with no significant difference ( t=0.187, P=0.85).In eyes with RVO, CRVO and BRVO, SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA, SA, TCA and CVI after every injection were lower than the baseline and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05).In eyes with CRVO, there was no significant difference in LA and CVI between first and second injections (both P>0.05), and SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, SA and TCA after second injection were lower than those after first injection with statistically significant differences (all P<0.05).In eyes with BRVO, there was no significant difference in SA and CVI between first and second injections (both P>0.05), and SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, LA and TCA after second injection were lower than those after first injection with statistically significant differences (all P<0.05).In eyes with RVO, CRVO and BRVO, there was no significant difference in SFCT, CT T1.5 mm, CT N1.5 mm, CT Mean, SA, TCA and CVI between second and third injections (all P>0.05). Conclusions:After intravitreal injection of ranibizumab, the choroidal thickness becomes thinner and CVI decreases in eyes with macular edema secondary to RVO, and remain relatively stable after the second injection.
9.Analysis of the current status and related factors of iodine nutrition levels among adults aged 18 years and above in Zhejiang Province in 2022
Guangming MAO ; Zhe MO ; Simeng GU ; Fanjia GUO ; Yuanyang WANG ; Jiaxin HE ; Yujie JIANG ; Yahui LI ; Zhijian CHEN ; Xiaofeng WANG ; Xiaoming LOU ; Chenyang LIU
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;59(1):22-29
Objective:To analyze the iodine nutrition status and its related factors among adults aged 18 years and above in Zhejiang Province in 2022.Methods:A multistage stratified sampling method was used to select 4 320 adults aged 18 years and above from 16 on-site survey sites in Zhejiang Province for the study. A questionnaire was used to investigate the general demographic information and personal dietary characteristics of the study participants. Household edible salt and urine samples were collected to detect salt iodine content and urinary iodine level by using direct titration and cerium arsenate-catalyzed spectrophotometry, respectively, to evaluate the iodine nutritional status according to the standard. The multiple-ordered logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors influencing the urinary iodine concentration.Results:The age of the 4 320 study participants was (51.19±15.33) years, with males accounting for 44.44% (1 920). About 40.16% of adults (1 735) were from coastal areas and 56.37% (2 435) from urban areas. The salt iodine content, M ( Q1, Q3), of the 4 320 household edible salt samples was 21.10 (0.00, 24.16) mg/kg, including 1 662 non-iodized salt samples, 182 unqualified iodized salt samples and 2 476 qualified iodized salt samples. The rate of iodized salt coverage was 61.53%, and the rate of qualified iodized salt consumption was 57.31%. There was a statistically significant difference in the proportion of qualified iodized salt in adult households among different regions ( P<0.001), with the proportion of non-iodized salt gradually decreasing from coastal to inland areas ( χ 2trend=618.458, P<0.001). The urinary iodine concentration M ( Q1, Q3) was 137.60 (86.85, 210.60) μg/L in 4 320 adult urine samples, with the urinary iodine levels of<100, 100-199, 200-299, and≥300 μg/L accounting for 31.64% (1 367), 40.56% (1 752), 17.66% (763), and 10.14% (438), respectively. There was a nonlinear positive correlation between household salt iodine content and urinary iodine level in adults aged 18 years and above by using the χ 2 test for trend ( χ 2regression=231.10, P<0.001 and χ 2skew=28.81, P<0.001). Urinary iodine concentrations were higher in men than in women ( P=0.029) and higher in adults in rural areas than in urban areas ( P<0.001). There were statistically significant differences in the distribution of iodine nutritional status among adults of different ages, regions, and urban and rural areas (all P<0.001). The proportion of those with urinary iodine levels<100 μg/L gradually increased with age ( χ 2trend=37.493, P<0.001), and gradually decreased from coastal areas to inland areas ( χ 2trend=71.381, P<0.001). The results of the multiple-ordered logistic regression model analysis showed that compared with adults aged 18 to 44 years and male adults, those aged 45 to 59 years and female adults had lower urinary iodine levels, with OR (95% CI) of 0.75 (0.68-0.83) and 0.85 (0.76-0.95), respectively. Compared with adults in coastal and urban adults, those in sub-coastal, inland and rural adults had higher levels of urinary iodine, with OR (95% CI) of 1.89 (1.63-2.19), 2.02 (1.72-2.37) and 1.46 (1.28-1.66), respectively. Conclusion:The overall iodine nutrition level of adults aged 18 years and above in Zhejiang Province in 2022 is generally appropriate. However, there is a potential risk of iodine deficiency among adults in coastal areas.
10.Establishment and evaluation of a Nomogram early prediction model for severe dengue fever
Li LIU ; Hongjun LI ; Lixian CHANG ; Hui CHEN ; Zhihui MA ; Zhijian DONG ; Lingjun SHEN ; Chunyun LIU
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(3):179-185
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of severe dengue fever patients in the early stage, construct a early prediction model for severe dengue fever, and evaluate it.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted to collect early clinical data of dengue fever patients admitted to the People's Hospital of Mengla County and the Third People's Hospital of Kunming in Yunnan Province from July to December 2023. The multifactor logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the severe dengue fever patients, and Nomogram prediction model was used for visualization. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve analysis were used to evaluate the model.Results:A total of 534 dengue fever patients were included, including 291 males and 243 females, aged (39.95 ± 15.69) years. Among them, there were 59 cases (11.05%) of severe dengue fever. The results of multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that age ( OR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.08, P < 0.001), cardiovascular disease ( OR = 5.28, 95% CI: 2.08 - 13.40, P < 0.001), serous effusion ( OR = 4.34, 95% CI: 1.63 - 11.57, P = 0.003), aspartate aminotransferase ( OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02 - 1.04, P < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase ( OR = 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.01, P = 0.001), and fibrinogen ( OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28 - 0.76, P = 0.003) were independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The area under the ROC curve of the Nomogram prediction model constructed from the above six variables was 0.96 (0.93 - 0.98). The calibration curve analysis results showed that the mean absolute error between the predicted values of the Nomogram prediction model and the actual observed values was 0.014. Conclusions:Age, cardiovascular disease, serous effusion, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, and fibrinogen are independent influencing factors in the early stage of severe dengue fever. The Nomogram prediction model established based on these variables has good predictive ability for severe dengue fever.

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