1.Multicenter machine learning-based construction of a model for predicting potential organ donors and validation with decision curve analysis
Xu WANG ; Wenxiu LI ; Fenghua WANG ; Shuli WU ; Dong JIA ; Xin GE ; Zhihua SHAN ; Tongzuo LI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):106-115
Objective To evaluate the predictive value of different machine learning models constructed in a multicenter environment for potential organ donors and verify their clinical application feasibility. Methods The study included 2 000 inpatients admitted to five domestic tertiary hospitals from January 2020 to December 2023, who met the criteria for potential organ donation assessment. They were randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7∶3). Another 300 similar patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2024 to April 2025 were included as an external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F1-score of three models were compared, and the consistency of the potential organ donor determination process was tested. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of potential organ donors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to verify the resource efficiency of each model, and the threshold interval and intervention balance point were assessed. Results Apart from age, there were no significant differences in other basic characteristics among the centers (all P>0.05). The consistency of the potential organ donor determination process among researchers in each center was good [all 95% confidence interval (CI) lower limits >0]. In the internal validation set, the XGBoost model had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94) and the best calibration (P=0.441, Brier score 0.099). In the external validation set, the XGBoost model also had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94), outperforming logistic regression and random forest models. Multivariate logistic regression showed that mechanical ventilation had the greatest impact (odds ratio=2.06, 95% CI 1.54-2.76, P<0.001). DCA indicated that the XGBoost model had the highest net benefit in the threshold interval of 0.2-0.6. The “treat all” strategy only had a slight advantage at extremely low thresholds. The recommended threshold interval, which balances intervention costs and clinical benefits, considers ≥50% positive predictive value (PPV) and ≤50 referrals per 100 high-risk patients. Conclusions The XGBoost model established in a multicenter environment is accurate and well-calibrated in predicting potential organ donors. Combined with DCA, it may effectively guide the timing of clinical interventions and resource allocation, providing new ideas for the assessment and management of organ donation after brain death.
2.Expert consensus on liquid biopsy-based multi-cancer early detection(2025 edition)
Chen WANQING ; Chen KEXIN ; He YUTONG ; Jia WEIHUA ; Liu ZHIHUA ; Ma HONGXIA ; Miao XIAOPING ; Pan KAIFENG ; Wu CHEN ; Xia CHANGFA ; Xing JINLIANG ; Xu YONGJIE
Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2025;52(14):727-742
Cancer stands as a significant global public health challenge,and cancer screening serves as a pivotal strategy for reducing its mortality.Presently,only a limited number of cancer types have appropriate screening methods available.Traditional single-cancer screen-ing approaches are fraught with limitations,including invasiveness,low accuracy,and poor patient compliance.Multi-cancer early detection(MCED)leveraging liquid biopsy technology enables non-invasive and efficient early detection of multiple cancers by analyzing biomarkers such as cell-free DNA,cell-free RNA,proteins,and metabolites in blood and other bodily fluids.This innovative approach substantially broadens the spectrum of detectable cancers and enhances population coverage,showcasing immense potential for improving existing can-cer screening strategies.This expert consensus comprehensively reviews the progress of liquid biopsy-based MCED,biomarker selection and detection technologies,the criteria for cancer type selection,research design and clinical utility evaluation,as well as implementation path-ways.The overarching goal of this consensus is to offer scientific guidance for further research and the widespread adoption of MCED,thereby facilitating the continuous optimization of cancer screening strategies.
3.Expert consensus on liquid biopsy-based multi-cancer early detection (2025 edition)
Wanqing CHEN ; Kexin CHEN ; Yutong HE ; Weihua JIA ; Zhihua LIU ; Hongxia MA ; Xiaoping MIAO ; Kaifeng PAN ; Chen WU ; Changfa XIA ; Jinliang XING ; Yongjie XU
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(7):558-574
Cancer stands as a significant global public health challenge, and cancer screening serves as a pivotal strategy for reducing its mortality. Presently, only a limited number of cancer types have appropriate screening methods available. Traditional single-cancer screening approaches are fraught with limitations, including invasiveness, low accuracy, and poor patient compliance. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) leveraging liquid biopsy technology enables non-invasive and efficient early detection of multiple cancers by analyzing biomarkers such as cell-free DNA, cell-free RNA, proteins, and metabolites in blood and other bodily fluids. This innovative approach substantially broadens the spectrum of detectable cancers and enhances population coverage, showcasing immense potential for improving existing cancer screening strategies. This expert consensus comprehensively reviews the progress of liquid biopsy-based MCED, biomarker selection and detection technologies, the criteria for cancer type selection, research design and clinical utility evaluation, as well as implementation pathways. The overarching goal of this consensus is to offer scientific guidance for further research and the widespread adoption of MCED, thereby facilitating the continuous optimization of cancer screening strategies.
4.Effect of intradialytic cerebral blood flow changes on cognitive decline in middle-aged and elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients
Yidan GUO ; Jingying SUN ; Zhihua SHI ; Meng JIA ; Xiaoling ZHOU ; Chunxia ZHANG ; Wei CUI ; Pengpeng YE ; Yang LUO
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2025;41(3):177-182
Objective:To investigate the effect of intradialytic cerebral blood flow (CBF) fluctuation on cognitive decline in middle-aged and elderly maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients.Methods:It was a prospective cohort study. MHD patients aged ≥50 years from Beijing Shijitan Hospital were enrolled from January 2023 to June 2023. Middle cerebral artery mean flow velocity (MFV) was serially monitored via transcranial Doppler (TCD) during dialysis sessions. Cognitive function was assessed at baseline and after 12-month follow-up using standardized neuropsychological tests: montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), auditory verbal learning test (AVLT 5), complex figure test (CFT), trail making test-B (TMT-B), Stroop color and word test (SCWT), and symbol digit modalities test (SDMT). ΔMFV was calculated as pre-to-post dialysis MFV difference. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze the association of ΔMFV and cognition.Results:A total of 121 MHD patients were recruited with an age of (63.63±8.44) years. There were 97 males (80.2%), and the dialysis vintage was (55.08±54.73) months. Significant intradialytic MFV reductions were observed ( P<0.05). At 12 months, cognitive decline manifested in global cognition (MoCA), memory (CFT-memory), executive function (TMT-B, SCWT-C, SCWT-T), attention (SDMT), visuospatial ability (CFT-copy)(all P<0.05). Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed ΔMFV independently predicted declines in: MoCA ( B=0.066, 95% CI 0.018-0.113, P=0.007), AVLT5 ( B=0.050, 95% CI 0.004-0.097, P=0.035), TMT-B ( B=-1.955, 95% CI -3.453--0.457, P=0.011), SCWT-C ( B=0.298, 95% CI 0.112-0.484, P=0.002), SCWT-T ( B=-1.371, 95% CI -2.303--0.439, P=0.004). Conclusions:Hemodialysis induces acute CBF reductions detectable by TCD. Cumulative intradialytic CBF fluctuations may accelerate cognitive deterioration in middle-aged and elderly MHD populations, particularly affecting memory and executive domains.
5.Expert consensus on liquid biopsy-based multi-cancer early detection(2025 edition)
Chen WANQING ; Chen KEXIN ; He YUTONG ; Jia WEIHUA ; Liu ZHIHUA ; Ma HONGXIA ; Miao XIAOPING ; Pan KAIFENG ; Wu CHEN ; Xia CHANGFA ; Xing JINLIANG ; Xu YONGJIE
Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology 2025;52(14):727-742
Cancer stands as a significant global public health challenge,and cancer screening serves as a pivotal strategy for reducing its mortality.Presently,only a limited number of cancer types have appropriate screening methods available.Traditional single-cancer screen-ing approaches are fraught with limitations,including invasiveness,low accuracy,and poor patient compliance.Multi-cancer early detection(MCED)leveraging liquid biopsy technology enables non-invasive and efficient early detection of multiple cancers by analyzing biomarkers such as cell-free DNA,cell-free RNA,proteins,and metabolites in blood and other bodily fluids.This innovative approach substantially broadens the spectrum of detectable cancers and enhances population coverage,showcasing immense potential for improving existing can-cer screening strategies.This expert consensus comprehensively reviews the progress of liquid biopsy-based MCED,biomarker selection and detection technologies,the criteria for cancer type selection,research design and clinical utility evaluation,as well as implementation path-ways.The overarching goal of this consensus is to offer scientific guidance for further research and the widespread adoption of MCED,thereby facilitating the continuous optimization of cancer screening strategies.
6.Effect of intradialytic cerebral blood flow changes on cognitive decline in middle-aged and elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients
Yidan GUO ; Jingying SUN ; Zhihua SHI ; Meng JIA ; Xiaoling ZHOU ; Chunxia ZHANG ; Wei CUI ; Pengpeng YE ; Yang LUO
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2025;41(3):177-182
Objective:To investigate the effect of intradialytic cerebral blood flow (CBF) fluctuation on cognitive decline in middle-aged and elderly maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients.Methods:It was a prospective cohort study. MHD patients aged ≥50 years from Beijing Shijitan Hospital were enrolled from January 2023 to June 2023. Middle cerebral artery mean flow velocity (MFV) was serially monitored via transcranial Doppler (TCD) during dialysis sessions. Cognitive function was assessed at baseline and after 12-month follow-up using standardized neuropsychological tests: montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), auditory verbal learning test (AVLT 5), complex figure test (CFT), trail making test-B (TMT-B), Stroop color and word test (SCWT), and symbol digit modalities test (SDMT). ΔMFV was calculated as pre-to-post dialysis MFV difference. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze the association of ΔMFV and cognition.Results:A total of 121 MHD patients were recruited with an age of (63.63±8.44) years. There were 97 males (80.2%), and the dialysis vintage was (55.08±54.73) months. Significant intradialytic MFV reductions were observed ( P<0.05). At 12 months, cognitive decline manifested in global cognition (MoCA), memory (CFT-memory), executive function (TMT-B, SCWT-C, SCWT-T), attention (SDMT), visuospatial ability (CFT-copy)(all P<0.05). Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed ΔMFV independently predicted declines in: MoCA ( B=0.066, 95% CI 0.018-0.113, P=0.007), AVLT5 ( B=0.050, 95% CI 0.004-0.097, P=0.035), TMT-B ( B=-1.955, 95% CI -3.453--0.457, P=0.011), SCWT-C ( B=0.298, 95% CI 0.112-0.484, P=0.002), SCWT-T ( B=-1.371, 95% CI -2.303--0.439, P=0.004). Conclusions:Hemodialysis induces acute CBF reductions detectable by TCD. Cumulative intradialytic CBF fluctuations may accelerate cognitive deterioration in middle-aged and elderly MHD populations, particularly affecting memory and executive domains.
7.Expert consensus on liquid biopsy-based multi-cancer early detection (2025 edition)
Wanqing CHEN ; Kexin CHEN ; Yutong HE ; Weihua JIA ; Zhihua LIU ; Hongxia MA ; Xiaoping MIAO ; Kaifeng PAN ; Chen WU ; Changfa XIA ; Jinliang XING ; Yongjie XU
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(7):558-574
Cancer stands as a significant global public health challenge, and cancer screening serves as a pivotal strategy for reducing its mortality. Presently, only a limited number of cancer types have appropriate screening methods available. Traditional single-cancer screening approaches are fraught with limitations, including invasiveness, low accuracy, and poor patient compliance. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) leveraging liquid biopsy technology enables non-invasive and efficient early detection of multiple cancers by analyzing biomarkers such as cell-free DNA, cell-free RNA, proteins, and metabolites in blood and other bodily fluids. This innovative approach substantially broadens the spectrum of detectable cancers and enhances population coverage, showcasing immense potential for improving existing cancer screening strategies. This expert consensus comprehensively reviews the progress of liquid biopsy-based MCED, biomarker selection and detection technologies, the criteria for cancer type selection, research design and clinical utility evaluation, as well as implementation pathways. The overarching goal of this consensus is to offer scientific guidance for further research and the widespread adoption of MCED, thereby facilitating the continuous optimization of cancer screening strategies.
8.Metabolic characteristics of lymphomas with Chinese experts grade Ⅰ recommendation for examination of 18F-FDG PET/CT guideline
Qichen JIA ; Jing BAI ; Zhihua ZHANG ; Yu GAO ; Liying WU ; Aihui WANG
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging Technology 2024;40(12):1936-1940
Objective To observe the metabolic characteristics of lymphomas with Chinese experts grade Ⅰrecommendation for examination of 18F-FDG PET/CT guideline.Methods Totally 115 patients with lymphoma who underwent baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT were retrospectively enrolled and divided into grade Ⅰ A group(n=69,lymphomas with international experts grade Ⅰ recommendation,including Hodgkin lymphoma[HL]and diffuse large big cell lymphoma[DLBCL]),grade Ⅰ B group(n=26,lymphomas with Chinese experts grade Ⅰ recommendation,including peripheral T-cell lymphoma[PTCL],primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma[PMBL],Burkitt lymphoma[BL],high-grade follicular lymphoma[FL]and lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma)and grade Ⅱ group(n=20,lymphomas with international experts grade Ⅱ recommendation,including marginal zone lymphoma[MZL],mantle cell lymphoma[MCL],low-grade FL and non-gastric mucosa-associated lymphoma tissue lymphoma[MALToma]).PET/CT parameters were compared among 3 groups and between each 2 groups.Results Significant differences of the maximum standard uptake value(SUVmax),the mean standard uptake value,peak standard uptake value,the maximum standard uptake value normalized by lean body mass,the mean standard uptake value normalized by lean body mass,peak standard uptake value normalized by lean body mass,lesion/liver SUVmax and lesions/mediastinum SUVmax were found among 3 groups(all P<0.05),also between grade Ⅱ group and each of the other 2 groups(both P<0.05).Conclusion Lymphomas with Chinese experts grade Ⅰ recommendation for examination of 18F-FDG PET/CT guideline presented high metabolism on 18F-FDG PET/CT,similar to HL and DLBCL but higher than MZL,MCL,low-grade FL and non-gastric MALToma.
9.Correlations between image quality and radiation dose in prospective and retrospective ECG-gated CT coronary angiography in patients with different heart rates
Dechun ZHAO ; Kebin YU ; Jia LIU ; Luxi YANG ; Qi ZHU ; Zhihua PAN
Chinese Journal of Medical Physics 2024;41(2):185-190
Objective To explore the correlations between image quality of prospective and retrospective electrocardiogram(ECG)-gated CT coronary angiogram and radiation dose in patients with different heart rates.Methods A total of 135 patients undergoing 256-slice spiral CT coronary angiography were enrolled in the study.Among them,66 cases received prospective ECG-gated scanning(prospective ECG-gated group)and further divided into two subgroups with heart rate≤80 beats/min(prospective ECG-gated+low heart rate subgroup,n=39)and>80 beats/min(prospective ECG-gated+high heart rate subgroup,n=27).The other 69 cases underwent retrospective ECG-gated scanning(retrospective ECG-gated group),including 45 cases with heart rate≤80 beats/min(retrospective ECG-gated+low heart rate subgroup)and 24 with heart rate>80 beats/min(retrospective ECG-gated+high heart rate subgroup).The baseline data,image quality[mean CT value,image noise,signal-to-noise ratio(SNR),subjective image quality score]and radiation dos[CT volume dose index(CTDIvol),dose length product(DLP),effective dose(ED)]were compared among 4 subgroups.The correlations of image quality with heart rate and radiation dose in prospective and retrospective ECG-gated groups were analyzed.Results The heart rates in prospective and retrospective ECG-gated+low heart rate subgroups were lower than those in prospective and retrospective ECG-gated+high heart rate subgroups(P<0.05).When comparing the mean CT value,image noise,SNR and subjective image quality score among 4 subgroups,no statistically significant differences were observed(P>0.05).The CTDIvol,DLP and ED in prospective ECG-gated+low heart rate subgroup were significantly lower than those in the other 3 subgroups(P<0.05),and the indicators in prospective ECG-gated+high heart rate subgroup were lower than those in retrospective ECG-gated group(including low and high heart rate subgroups)(P<0.05).Pearson correlation coefficient analysis revealed that the mean CT value,image noise,SNR,subjective image quality score had no significant correlation with heart rate,CTDIvol,DLP and ED in prospective and retrospective ECG-gated groups(P>0.05).Conclusion The subjective and objective image quality of 256-slice spiral CT coronary angiography is not correlated with radiation dose.Prospective ECG-gated scanning can reduce the radiation dose and ensure the image quality as compared with retrospective ECG-gated scanning.This holds true for eligible patients with high heart rate,and the former can effectively reduce radiation exposure.Therefore,prospective ECG-gated scanning is worthy to be promoted in clinic.
10.Analysis of changes in cerebral blood flow during maintenance hemodialysis in middle-aged and elderly patients
Yidan GUO ; Wei CUI ; Pengpeng YE ; Zhihua SHI ; Meng JIA ; Xiaoling ZHOU ; Yang LUO
Chinese Journal of Nephrology 2024;40(10):792-797
Objective:To investigate the changes and associated factors of cerebral blood flow in middle-aged and elderly patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD).Methods:This was a prospective observational study. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients undergoing MHD aged over 50 years at Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2023 to June 2023 were included. General clinical data of the selected individuals were collected, and dialysis related indicators were recorded and calculated. Mean flow velocity (MFV) of the middle cerebral arterial was measured by transcranial Doppler sonography (TCD) to represent cerebral blood flow throughout dialysis. Hemodialysis-related variables were collected. The MFV values of bilateral middle cerebral artery were measured through temporal windows at 7 time points: 15 minutes before dialysis (T1), 15 minutes (T2), 30 minutes (T3), 60 minutes (T4), 120 minutes (T5), 180 minutes (T6) during dialysis, and the endpoint of dialysis (T7), and the average values were recorded. The ΔMFV was calculated as pre-minus endpoint values of MFV. The Spearman rank correlation method was used to analyze the correlations between ΔMFV and dialysis-related variables, and multiple linear regression method was used to analyze the related factors of the changes in MFV.Results:This study included a total of 123 patients undergoing MHD, aged (63.63±8.44) years (range 50-85 years), including 99 males (80.5%). TCD examination demonstrated a decline trend in MFV throughout dialysis. The MFV at T7 was significantly lower than that at T1 ( Z=-7.650, P<0.001). The Spearman correlation analysis showed that the decline in MFV was correlated with ultrafiltration volume ( r=0.356), ultrafiltration rate ( r=0.371), the difference in systolic pressure (pre-analysis minus post-dialysis, r=0.251), the difference in mean arterial pressure (pre-dialysis minus post-dialysis, r=0.194), combined diabetes ( r=0.293), dialysis vintage ( r=0.220), Kt/V ( r=0.287), and serum albumin ( r=-0.295). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that combined with diabetes ( B=3.889, 95% CI 1.373-6.405, P=0.003), decreased serum albumin ( B=-0.456, 95% CI -0.877--0.036, P=0.034), increased ultrafiltration rate ( B=11.099, 95% CI 6.402-15.797, P<0.001) and the decline in systolic pressure ( B=0.062, 95% CI 0.008-0.116, P=0.026) were significantly associated with the decline in MFV throughout dialysis. Conclusions:In middle and elderly patients with ESRD undergoing hemodialysis, there is a decline trend in cerebral blood flow during hemodialysis. The combination of diabetes, lower serum albumin, higher ultrafiltration rate, and intradialytic systolic pressure decline are the risk factors influencing the intradialytic decline of cerebral blood flow.

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