1.Evaluation of the public health governance capacity in Jiangsu Province
Peiyu FENG ; Anning MA ; Peiwu SHI ; Qunhong SHEN ; Chaoyang ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Chuan PU ; Lingzhong XU ; Zhaohui GONG ; Tianqiang XU ; Panshi WANG ; Chao HAO ; Zhi HU ; Mo HAO ; Hua WANG ; Chengyue LI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):146-152
ObjectiveTo evaluate the public health governance capacity in Jiangsu Province and provide an optimized pathway for the construction of a “strong, rich, beautiful, and high-quality” new Jiangsu. MethodsA total of 806 policy documents, 658 public information reports, and 148 research literatures related to public health governance capacity in Jiangsu Province from January 1995 to December 2023 were collected. The status of current public health goverance was assessed based on the evaluation criteria suitable for public health systems, and the strengths and the weaknesses of the system were identified. ResultsThe public health governance capability of Jiangsu Province was scored at 738.3 points, ranking 3rd nationally. Maternal health care and emergency response capacities achieved leading positions nationwide, both ranking 2nd. Jiangsu had exhibited a standardized guidance in the strategic level, a well-established management mechanism, an extensive coverage in information collection, and a scientifically established health targets setting. However, bottlenecks remained, including an unclear division of responsibilities across organizational departments, an insufficient public-health workforce, the absence of a stable growth mechanism for government funding investment, and difficulties in promptly identifying public needs. ConclusionJiangsu’s public-health system demonstrates leading nationally, yet several components remain underdeveloped. Future efforts should consolidate advantages while addressing weaknesses, further diversify content and forms, establish a stable funding increase mechanism, and clarify departmental functions, thereby providing solid health support for realizing the developmental goals of a “strong, rich, beautiful and high-quality” new Jiangsu.
2.Evaluation of public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province
Haiyan LI ; Ting CHEN ; Chengyue LI ; Huihui HUANGFU ; Wei WANG ; Qunhong SHEN ; Chaoyang ZHANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Chuan PU ; Lingzhong XU ; Anning MA ; Zhaohui GONG ; Tianqiang XU ; Panshi WANG ; Hua WANG ; Chao HAO ; Zhi HU ; Peiwu SHI ; Mo HAO
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):153-158
ObjectiveTo systematically assess the public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province, to conduct an in-depth analysis of its strengths and weaknesses, so as to provide scientific basis and strategic recommendations for further enhancement. MethodsA systematic collection of policy documents, public information reports, and research literature related to public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2023 was conducted (encompassing a total of 1 263 policy documents, 138 pieces of information reports and 631 research articles). Based on the evaluation criteria suitable for public health systems previously developed by the research team, the basic status and magnitude of change in public health governance capacity in Zhejiang Province was evaluated. Additionally, normative gap analyses were employed to identify the strengths and weaknesses. ResultsZhejiang Province ranked 4th nationwide in terms of public health governance capacity with a score of 733.4 points (1 000.0-point maximum). The province has effectively implemented the principle of health first (scoring 698.5 points in the assessment of health-first strategy implementation) and attached sufficient importance to health-related goals (scoring 658.2 points in the scientific rationality of goal setting). However, the implementation of inter-departmental coordination and incentive mechanisms only scored 178.7 points, the feasibility of management and monitoring mechanisms scored even lower at only 144.0 points, and the coverage of incentive mechanisms scored 286.0 points. ConclusionZhejiang Province has effectively implemented its health first strategy and attached great importance to health targets, but still needs to strengthen cross-departmental coordination mechanisms and health-oriented incentives.
3.The Prospect of Trimethylamine N-oxide Combined With Short-chain Fatty Acids in Atherosclerosis Risk Prediction
Zhi-Chao SHI ; Xu-Ping TIAN ; Si-Yi CHEN ; Shi-Guo LIU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(2):404-417
Atherosclerosis (AS), the primary pathological contributor to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), has increasingly affected younger populations due to modern dietary habits and sedentary lifestyles. Current diagnostic modalities, including ultrasound, MRI, and CT, primarily identify advanced lesions and inadequately evaluate plaque vulnerability, thereby hindering early detection. Conventional treatments, which involve long-term medications associated with side effects such as hepatic injury and surgical interventions that carry risks of restenosis and hemorrhage, underscore the urgent need for non-invasive, cost-effective early diagnostic methods and targeted therapies. Gut microbiota metabolites are pivotal in AS pathogenesis, with trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) serving as functionally opposing biomarkers. TMAO is produced when gut bacteria, specifically Firmicutes and Proteobacteria, metabolize dietary choline and carnitine into trimethylamine (TMA), which the liver subsequently converts to TMAO via flavin-containing monooxygenase 3 (FMO3); TMAO is then excreted in urine. Variability in TMAO levels is influenced by marine food consumption and FMO3 modulation, which can be affected by genetics, age, and diet. Mechanistically, TMAO exacerbates AS by disrupting cholesterol metabolism, inducing endothelial dysfunction through the elevation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, and reducing nitric oxide levels. Additionally, TMAO activates NF-κB and NLRP3 pathways while enhancing platelet reactivity. Clinically, elevated TMAO levels correlate with early AS and serve as predictors of mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as well as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in stroke patients. Conversely, SCFAs—namely acetate, propionate, and butyrate—are produced by gut bacteria such as Akkermansia muciniphila and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii through the fermentation of dietary fiber. These metabolites exert anti-AS effects: acetate aids in maintaining metabolic homeostasis; propionate protects endothelial function and reduces plaque area; and butyrate fortifies intestinal barriers while suppressing inflammation. Furthermore, SCFAs cross-regulate bile acid metabolism, thereby influencing TMAO levels, and antagonize the pro-inflammatory and lipid-disrupting effects of TMAO. The use of TMAO and SCFAs as standalone biomarkers is constrained by limitations. TMAO lacks specificity, while SCFA levels fluctuate based on gut microbiota and dietary intake. Traditional AS risk assessment tools, which include clinical indicators, imaging techniques, and single biomarkers such as CRP, LDL-C, and ASCVD scores, overlook gut metabolism and demonstrate inadequate performance in younger populations. This review advocates for an “antagonistic-complementary” combined strategy: utilizing acetate and TMAO for early AS, propionate and TMAO for progressive AS, and butyrate and TMAO for advanced AS, addressing endothelial dysfunction, lipid deposition, and plaque stability/thrombosis risk, respectively. For clinical application, standardization of detection methods is crucial; liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is the gold standard, necessitating a unified sample pretreatment protocol, such as extraction with 1% formic acid in methanol. Additionally, dried blood spots (DBS) facilitate non-invasive testing, provided that dietary controls are implemented prior to detection, including a 12-hour fast and avoidance of high-choline and high-fiber foods. Existing challenges encompass the absence of standardized systems, limited large-scale validation, and ambiguous interactions with conditions such as hypertension. The authors’ team has previously established connections between gut metabolites and AS, including the reduction of TMAO as a preventive measure for AS, thereby reinforcing this proposed strategy. Future research should prioritize standardization, the development of machine learning-optimized models, validation of interventions, and the exploration of multi-omics-based “gut microbiota-metabolite-vascular” networks. In conclusion, the combined detection of TMAO and SCFAs offers a novel framework for AS risk assessment, facilitating early diagnosis and targeted interventions while enhancing the integration of gut metabolism into cardiovascular disease management.
4.The Prospect of Trimethylamine N-oxide Combined With Short-chain Fatty Acids in Atherosclerosis Risk Prediction
Zhi-Chao SHI ; Xu-Ping TIAN ; Si-Yi CHEN ; Shi-Guo LIU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(2):404-417
Atherosclerosis (AS), the primary pathological contributor to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), has increasingly affected younger populations due to modern dietary habits and sedentary lifestyles. Current diagnostic modalities, including ultrasound, MRI, and CT, primarily identify advanced lesions and inadequately evaluate plaque vulnerability, thereby hindering early detection. Conventional treatments, which involve long-term medications associated with side effects such as hepatic injury and surgical interventions that carry risks of restenosis and hemorrhage, underscore the urgent need for non-invasive, cost-effective early diagnostic methods and targeted therapies. Gut microbiota metabolites are pivotal in AS pathogenesis, with trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) serving as functionally opposing biomarkers. TMAO is produced when gut bacteria, specifically Firmicutes and Proteobacteria, metabolize dietary choline and carnitine into trimethylamine (TMA), which the liver subsequently converts to TMAO via flavin-containing monooxygenase 3 (FMO3); TMAO is then excreted in urine. Variability in TMAO levels is influenced by marine food consumption and FMO3 modulation, which can be affected by genetics, age, and diet. Mechanistically, TMAO exacerbates AS by disrupting cholesterol metabolism, inducing endothelial dysfunction through the elevation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, and reducing nitric oxide levels. Additionally, TMAO activates NF-κB and NLRP3 pathways while enhancing platelet reactivity. Clinically, elevated TMAO levels correlate with early AS and serve as predictors of mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as well as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in stroke patients. Conversely, SCFAs—namely acetate, propionate, and butyrate—are produced by gut bacteria such as Akkermansia muciniphila and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii through the fermentation of dietary fiber. These metabolites exert anti-AS effects: acetate aids in maintaining metabolic homeostasis; propionate protects endothelial function and reduces plaque area; and butyrate fortifies intestinal barriers while suppressing inflammation. Furthermore, SCFAs cross-regulate bile acid metabolism, thereby influencing TMAO levels, and antagonize the pro-inflammatory and lipid-disrupting effects of TMAO. The use of TMAO and SCFAs as standalone biomarkers is constrained by limitations. TMAO lacks specificity, while SCFA levels fluctuate based on gut microbiota and dietary intake. Traditional AS risk assessment tools, which include clinical indicators, imaging techniques, and single biomarkers such as CRP, LDL-C, and ASCVD scores, overlook gut metabolism and demonstrate inadequate performance in younger populations. This review advocates for an “antagonistic-complementary” combined strategy: utilizing acetate and TMAO for early AS, propionate and TMAO for progressive AS, and butyrate and TMAO for advanced AS, addressing endothelial dysfunction, lipid deposition, and plaque stability/thrombosis risk, respectively. For clinical application, standardization of detection methods is crucial; liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) is the gold standard, necessitating a unified sample pretreatment protocol, such as extraction with 1% formic acid in methanol. Additionally, dried blood spots (DBS) facilitate non-invasive testing, provided that dietary controls are implemented prior to detection, including a 12-hour fast and avoidance of high-choline and high-fiber foods. Existing challenges encompass the absence of standardized systems, limited large-scale validation, and ambiguous interactions with conditions such as hypertension. The authors’ team has previously established connections between gut metabolites and AS, including the reduction of TMAO as a preventive measure for AS, thereby reinforcing this proposed strategy. Future research should prioritize standardization, the development of machine learning-optimized models, validation of interventions, and the exploration of multi-omics-based “gut microbiota-metabolite-vascular” networks. In conclusion, the combined detection of TMAO and SCFAs offers a novel framework for AS risk assessment, facilitating early diagnosis and targeted interventions while enhancing the integration of gut metabolism into cardiovascular disease management.
5.Differences in deltamethrin resistance and kdr gene mutation in Culex tritaeniorhynchus population in and outside the Yellow Sea wetland
Xiao-er ZHANG ; Zhi-ming WU ; Ye TIAN ; Qian CUI ; Yu-qian JI ; Huan WANG ; Shu-juan YANG ; Yi-chao ZHAO ; Yu WANG ; Hua-yu YIN ; Yu DING ; Guo-jin YAN ; Min-sen ZHAO ; Shou-gang ZHANG ; Bing-dong SONG ; Hong-na CHEN ; Jian GAO ; Wei-fang YANG ; Yu-fu ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Hong-liang CHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(2):101-107
Objective To gain insights into the biological characteristics of different populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus within and around the Yellow Sea wetland from the perspective of the occurrence of resistance, we investigated the levels of resistance to deltamethrin and kdr gene mutation in the wetland and its peripheral areas. Methods Specimens were collected from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations at two monitoring sites in the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area, and also from two populations in Yancheng City and the Liuhe District of Nanjing, and the resistance of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin was determined using the CDC biotest bottle method. For each concentration of deltamethrin assessed, a random subset of exposed specimens was selected for amplification of the kdr gene fragment, followed by Sanger sequencing to identify and analyze resistance-associated mutations. Results The LC50 levels of deltamethrin among mosquitoes from the four populations in Luhe, Yancheng, the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and the Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area were 2.048 5, 7.798 2, 3.473 3, and 17.695 5 mg/mL, respectively, with corresponding concentrations of deltamethrin ranging from 0.005 to 5.000,0.050 to 50.000,0.050 to 25.000 and 0.050 to 50.000 mg/mL, respectively. Furthermore, the ranges of the KT50 values were 11.76-107.43, 67.05-216.30,29.77-107.43 and 28.40-329.51 min; the 1-h knockdown rates were 34.58%-99.15%, 9.52%-43.80%, 55.09%-73.01%, and 10.09%-68.07%; and the 24-h mortality rates were 12.15%-67.52%,9.52%-79.56%,13.17%-82.21%, and 11.01%-78.99%, respectively. With respect to kdr gene mutation, we assayed a total of 63,70,59, and 57 mosquitoes for the four populations, for which we detected L1014F mutation frequencies of 14.29%, 35.00%, 20.34%, and 31.58%, respectively, with a majority of these mutations being heterozygous for resistance. In addition, five adult mosquitoes were identified has having synonymous mutations at site 1011[i. e. , AAT(asparagine)mutation to AAC(asparagine)]. Conclusions Our findings revealed the clear resistance of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus to deltamethrin in the Yancheng region of the Yellow Sea wetland, and the resistance phenotype and kdr frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment were comparable to those of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment, thereby indicating that the resistance of different populations of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was homogeneous under the pressure of different insecticide selection within and around the wetland. However, the underlying mechanisms need to be further studied.
6.Detection of Ketamine and Norketamine Using an Aptamer-Functionalized Gra-phene Oxide Fluorescent Sensor
Li-Xia WEI ; Bo LIU ; Xiao-Yuan YANG ; Xi ZHANG ; Yi-Feng LAN ; Chao ZHANG ; Juan JIA ; Dan ZHANG ; Zhi-Wen WEI ; Ke-Ming YUN ; Zhe CHEN
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2025;41(4):326-339
Objective To construct an aptamer-functionalized carboxylated graphene oxide(CGO)fluo-rescent sensor to achieve highly sensitive and specific detection of ketamine(KET)and its metabolite norketamine(NK)using an aptamer capable of simultaneously recognizing KET and NK.Methods A specific aptamer for simultaneous recognition of KET and NK was screened using graphene oxide-sys-tematic evolution of ligand by exponential enrichment(GO-SELEX)and molecular docking tech-niques.The aptamer,labeled with Cy5 fluorescence,was chemically conjugated to CGO to construct an aptamer-functionalized CGO fluorescent sensor.By optimizing detection conditions,including the mass concentration of CGO,aptamer concentration,reaction temperature,and incubation time,quantita-tive analysis of the target analytes was achieved using the ratio of fluorescence intensity changes be-fore and after target addition.The stability of the sensor in biological matrices was evaluated by moni-toring fluorescence intensity changes over incubation time in blank blood and urine,in comparison with the traditional physical adsorption-based CGO fluorescent sensor.Spiked recovery experiments in blank blood and urine were conducted to compare performance with that of HPLC-MS/MS.Results A specific aptamer A5 was selected and chemically conjugated with CGO to construct the aptamer-functionalized CGO fluorescent sensor.Under optimized conditions,the proposed fluorescent sensor ex-hibited a linear detection range of 1.0-5.0 ng/mL for KET,with a limit of detection(LOD)of 0.86 ng/mL;while for NK,the linear detection range was 1.0-5.0 ng/mL,with an LOD of 0.70 ng/mL.Com-pared with the CGO fluorescent sensor constructed via physical adsorption,this sensor demonstrated greater stability in blood and urine.The spiked recovery rates of KET and NK in blank blood and urine ranged from 81.50%to 110.03%,exhibiting detection performance comparable to that of HPLC-MS/MS.Conclusion The aptamer screening method offers a novel approach for selecting aptamers tar-geting drugs and their metabolites.The constructed aptamer-functionalized CGO fluorescent sensor pro-vides an efficient and reliable strategy for the high-performance detection of KET and NK.
7.Toxicokinetics of Chlorfenapyr and Its Metabolites in Rats
Wen-Yan LI ; Jin-Feng ZHAO ; Wei-Chen LIU ; Shi-Jing LÜ ; Jia-Xin ZHANG ; Xu-Dong ZHANG ; Zhi-Wen WEI ; Ke-Ming YUN ; Chao ZHANG
Journal of Forensic Medicine 2025;41(4):380-386
Objective To establish a chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for detecting chlorfenapyr and its metabolite tralopyril in blood,and to investigate the toxicokinetics in rats.Methods Chlorfenapyr(8 mg/kg)was administered orally to rats,and blood samples were collected from rats'canthus vein at 5 min,15 min,30 min,1 h,3 h,6 h,12 h,24 h and 48 h after administration.The blood samples were extracted using 100 μL of 5%formic acid solution and 400 μL of acetonitrile.Chlorfena-pyr was qualitatively and quantitatively detected by triple quadrupole gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry(GC-MS/MS)and tralopyril was detected by triple quadrupole liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry(LC-MS/MS).The DAS 3.0 software was used to fit the toxicokinetic equa-tions and calculate the toxicokinetic parameters.Results Chlorfenapyr was detectable from 5 min to 24 h with a peak time of 1 h.Tralopyril was detectable from 15 min to 48 h with a peak time of 3 h.The toxicokinetic process of chlorfenapyr in rat blood conformed to a first-order absorption one-compartment open model,with the toxicokinetic equation described as C=e-0.265t-e-0.175t.Tralopyril con-formed to the first-order absorption three-compartment model,and the toxicokinetic equation was C=47 361.069e-2.209t-35 404.962e-1.486t+11 956.363e-0.512t.In the equations,C stands for the concentration of the target substance in the blood,e is the natural constant(≈2.718 28),and t stands for time.Conclu-sion This study optimized the detection method for chlorfenapyr and its metabolite tralopyril in blood.The toxicokinetic equations and parameters of chlorfenapyr and tralopyril can provide a reference for the estimation of oral intake time of chlorfenapyr.
8.Design and application of novel protective ventilator circuit component
Wei-zhou WU ; Kang LU ; Jing-jie CAO ; Zhi-hua ZHAO ; Hai-tao LAN ; Zan-chao CHEN ; Qing-feng XUE
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal 2025;46(4):113-117
Objective To develop a novel protective ventilator circuit component and to verify its performance by water seal and anti-splash experiments.Methods A novel protective ventilator circuit component had a design scheme with the multifunctional joint,and consisted of a tee connection tube,an isolation sleeve and a stop sleeve,of which,the tee connection tube was made of polyethylene polymer material and the others were made of silicone material.The tee connection tube had a T-shaped structure with two standard connection ports,which was composed of an adapter,a sealing cap,a plug and a sealing ring;the isolation sleeve was in the shape of a cylinder with a raised bottom,which was inserted into the adapter;the stop sleeve was located in the isolation sleeve,with an inverted frustum of a cone at the bottom and a rounded hole in the middle of the inverted frustum.An open ventilator circuit tube was involved in the performance verification of the circuit component developed.In the water seal experiment,sputum aspiration was simulated and the heights of the liquid level drop in the L-shaped tubes were compared after sputum aspiration.In the anti-splash experiment,the infection rates on the surfaces of the sterile hole towels and gloves were calculated.Results Water seal experiment showed after sputum aspiration the open ventilator circuit tube had the liquid level at the L-shaped tube higher significantly than that of the circuit component;the anti-splash experiment indicated sputum aspiration resulted in the occurance of the splashing out of the secretion and 77.5%infection rate by the open ventilator circuit tube,while no splashing out and 0%infection rate by the circuit component developed.Conclusion The novel protective ventilator circuit component behaves well in sealing and anti-splashing,and thus is worthy of clinical application for sputum aspiration.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2025,46(4):113-117]
9.Comparison of differences in dosimetry and treatment efficiency of modified radiotherapy plans after left-sided breast-conserving surgery
Jian-hai LIN ; Jing FENG ; Zhong-hua CHEN ; Zhi-chao FU ; Jie CHEN ; Nan-bao ZHONG
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal 2025;46(4):45-51
Objective To compare the differences in dosimetry and treatment efficiency of three radiotherapy plans after left-sided breast-conserving surgery,including modified intensity-modulated radiation therapy(IMRT),cross-field volume-modulated arc therapy(VMAT)or improved VMAT,so as to provide references for clinical practice.Methods Three radiotherapy plans of modified IMRT,cross-field VMAT and improved VMAT were designed for 12 patients after left-sided-breast-conserving surgery.The modified IMRT with five irradiation fields and the improved VMAT with two arcs were modified by not setting cross-fields while determining the start and end angles with the rays passing through the least lung area.The cross-field VMAT had its start and end angles set based on the cross-fields.The doses to the target areas,peripheral organs at risk,heart and its substructures were evaluated,and dose verification was carried out.The three plans were compared in terms of treatment efficiency and gamma pass rate.SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis.Results All the three plans behaved well in dose distribution.In terms of planning gross tumor volume dosimetry dosimetry,the improved VMAT and modified IMRT gained advantages than others in CI and D50,respectively,with the differences being significant(all P<0.05).In terms of planning target volume dosimetry,the modified IMRT had the V107 and D50 lower than those of the others,with the differences being significant(P<0.05).In terms of the protection of peripheral organs at risk,V5 of the left lung,Dmean of the right lung and Dmean of the healthy breast were lower in the modified IMRT plan than in the other 2 plans,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05);V20,V30,V35 and V40 of the left lung were lower in the modified VMAT plan than in the other 2 plans,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).In terms of protection of heart and its substructures,the left ventricle V20,V30 and Dmean of the improved VMAT plan behaved better than those of other 2 plans,and the difference was statistically significant(all P<0.05).In terms of treatment efficiency,the cross-field VMAT plan had the lowest MU while highest treatment efficiency;the improved VMAT plan had the MU higher while the treatment efficiency lower than the cross-field VMAT plan;the modified IMRT plan had the highest MU while the lowest gamma pass rate,and the differences in the MUs and gamma pass rates among the three plans were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion Under the same standard conditions,the cross-field VMAT and improved VMAT plans show technical advantages.Though the improved VMAT plan has the treatment efficiency lower than the cross-field VMAT,it decreases the possibility of radiocardiac injury in terms of dosimetry and thus can be used for radiotherapy after left-sided breast-conserving surgery.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2025,46(4):45-51]
10.Multiple biomarkers risk score for accurately predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome.
Zhi-Yong ZHANG ; Xin-Yu WANG ; Cong-Cong HOU ; Hong-Bin LIU ; Lyu LYU ; Mu-Lei CHEN ; Xiao-Rong XU ; Feng JIANG ; Long LI ; Wei-Ming LI ; Kui-Bao LI ; Juan WANG
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(7):656-667
BACKGROUND:
Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is scarce. We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information (C) and plasma biomarkers (B) for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.
METHODS:
We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA (Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients). The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort; and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as validation cohort. We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI) and all cause death in these patients. Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was derived using main part of these variables.
RESULTS:
During 16,110 person-years of follow-up, there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort. The 7 most important predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP, D-dimer, GDF-15, peripheral artery disease (PAD), Fibrinogen, ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), termed as CB-ACS score. C-index of the score for predication of cardiovascular events was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.82) in development cohort and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.78) in the validation cohort (5832 person-years of follow-up), which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score. The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino: P = 0.70 and P = 0.07, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS. This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.


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