Objective:To explore the spatial clustering of the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021 and its 50-year changing trend, so as to provide basis for the implementation and evaluation of prevention and control strategies and programs such as cervical cancer screening, early diagnosis and treatment, human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, etc.Methods:The mortality data of cervical cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and the data of three retrospective surveys of death causes. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (using the population composition of China in 1964) are used to describe the changing trend of cervical cancer in different years. The contribution values of population factors and non-population factors in cervical cancer mortality change are calculated by mortality differential decomposition method. ArcGIS 10.8 software is used for spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results:From 1970 to 2021, the crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rapid decline and then slow increase. The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of female cervical cancer in Shandong Province in 1970-1974 were the highest, reaching 17.22/10 5 and 13.17/10 5, respectively. In 2004-2005, it dropped to the lowest levels of 1.50/10 5 and 0.83/10 5. Subsequently, it slowly rose to 4.12/10 5 and 1.56/10 5 in 2020-2021. The differential analysis of cervical cancer mortality in different years found that the change of cervical cancer mortality was caused by the combined action of population factors and non-population factors. Among them, demographic factors (aging population) led to the increase of cervical cancer mortality, but non-demographic factors (early diagnosis and treatment, HPV infection level, medical technology level, etc) lead to the decrease of cervical cancer mortality. Compared with 1970-1974, with the passage of time, the absolute values of the contribution values of population factors and non-population factors showed an increasing trend, while the contribution of non-population factors was greater than that of population factors, which led to the decline of cervical cancer mortality. From the perspective of spatial distribution, there were great regional differences in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties of Shandong Province. In 2020-2021, the mortality rate of cervical cancer in all counties decreased to a great extent compared with that in 1970-1974, and the high-high and low-low concentration areas of cervical cancer mortality in different years changed obviously. The high-aggregation areas of the cervical cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2021 were mainly distributed in some counties and districts of Linyi City, Zaozhuang City, and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions:There are significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial clustering, prevention and control strategies of cervical cancer in different regions should be further formulated and evaluated.

Objective:We aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and predict the development trend from 2024 to 2030.Methods:Data on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality, and age-specific mortality in different years, as well as in urban and rural areas, were calculated, and the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) rate was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using GeoDa 1.12 software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.Results:From 2012 to 2023, the breast cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed an increasing trend. The ASIR increased from 30.48/100 000 in 2012 to 39.94/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=2.59%, P<0.001). The ASIR of urban and rural females also showed an upward trend. Additionally, the ASIR in rural areas (AAPC=3.33%, P<0.001) increased more than that in urban areas (AAPC=1.83%, P=0.002). The incidence peak of breast cancer mainly concentrated in population aged 45-64 years, and with the increase of years, the incidence peak gradually moved forward. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a downward trend. The ASMR decreased from 6.89/100 000 in 2012 to 4.93/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=-3.12%, P<0.001). The ASMR of urban and rural females also showed a downward trend (urban: AAPC=-3.56%, P=0.007; rural: AAPC=-2.72%, P<0.001). The spatial analysis showed that from 2015 to 2023, the clustering areas of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong had changed significantly. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASIR mainly included Wendeng District in Weihai City, Dongying District, Kenli District, Lijin County, Guangrao County in Dongying City, Tianqiao District, Shizhong District in Jinan City; In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Jiaxiang County, Liangshan County, Jinxiang County, Wenshang County, Rencheng District in Jining City, Hedong District in Linyi City, Guangrao County in Dongying City. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASMR only included Wenshang County in Jining City. In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Laizhou County in Yantai City, Junan County and Yishui County in Linyi City, Gaotang County in Liaocheng City, Dongping County and Ningyang County in Taian City. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR trend of breast cancer in Shandong tended to be smooth (AAPC=0.33%, P=0.001). However, the ASMR remained decreasing (AAPC=-4.68%, P<0.001). Conclusions:The breast cancer incidence in Shandong showed an increasing trend, and it is expected to be smooth by 2030. However, the mortality showed a continuous downward trend. The incidence peak was mainly in the population aged 45-64 years, with obvious regional differences. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-risk groups and areas in Shandong Province.

Objective:To understand spatial aggregation of lung cancer mortality and its changing trends over the past fifty years in different counties and districts of Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of lung cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong province and three retrospective surveys of death cause. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the changing trend of lung cancer in different years, and the contribution value of population factors and non-population factors in lung cancer mortality change was calculated by the mortality differential decomposition method. GeoDa 1.20 and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visualization map display.Results:The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend from 1970 to 2021, rising from 7.22 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 62.73 per 100 000 in 2020-2021, with an increase of 7.69 times. Meanwhile, the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The differential analysis of lung cancer mortality in different years revealed that changes in crude mortality rates were the result of the combined effects of demographic and non-demographic factors. The proportion of population factors (aging population) leading to an increase in lung cancer mortality rate rose from 2.12% in 1990-1992 to 40.20% in 2020-2021. From a spatial distribution perspective, there were significant regional differences in lung cancer mortality rates among counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province across different eras. Compared to the period of 1970-1974, the lung cancer mortality rates in all counties and districts in 2020-2021 showed a considerable increase, and there were noticeable changes in the areas of high-high and low-low clustering of lung cancer mortality rates across different eras.Conclusion:There have been significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. The crude mortality rate has shown an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate increases first and then decreases. The concentration of lung cancer mortality rates in counties and districts has also undergone significant changes.

Objective:To describe the distribution characteristics and trends of mortality and spatial aggregation of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of esophageal cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and three national all-cause mortality retrospective surveys. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, the Segi′s world standard population) were used to describe the mortality of esophageal cancer. Mortality differential decomposition was applied to quantify the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors. The death levels of esophageal cancer in different counties (cities and districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and 2020 to 2021 were visualized by the ArcGIS 10.8 software, and global and local autocorrelation analyses were conducted by using the GeoDa 1.12 software.Results:The CMR of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province increased first and then decreased from 1970 to 2021. The CMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 17.59/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 14.32/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. The ASMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 20.04/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 6.53/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. Compared with the period of 1970—1974, both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 1990 to 1992. However, demographic factors continued to contribute to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 2004 to 2005, 2011 to 2013, and 2020 to 2021, while non-demographic factors contributed to the continuous decrease in esophageal cancer mortality rate. The global autocorrelation analysis results showed that the Moran′s I index of ASMR of esophageal cancer in each county (city, district) of Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and from 2020 to 2021 were 0.67 and 0.57, respectively. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 19 and 13 areas of high-high clustering of esophageal cancer in the periods of 1970—1974 and 2020—2021, respectively, with 12 overlapping counties (cities, districts). Conclusion:From 1970 to 2021, the CMR of esophageal cancer increases first and then decreases, while the ASMR of esophageal cancer gradually decreases in Shandong Province. The distribution of esophageal cancer mortality has significant spatial aggregation and changes over time.

Objective:We aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 and predict the development trend from 2024 to 2030.Methods:Data on the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality, and age-specific mortality in different years, as well as in urban and rural areas, were calculated, and the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) rate was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were performed using GeoDa 1.12 software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.Results:From 2012 to 2023, the breast cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed an increasing trend. The ASIR increased from 30.48/100 000 in 2012 to 39.94/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=2.59%, P<0.001). The ASIR of urban and rural females also showed an upward trend. Additionally, the ASIR in rural areas (AAPC=3.33%, P<0.001) increased more than that in urban areas (AAPC=1.83%, P=0.002). The incidence peak of breast cancer mainly concentrated in population aged 45-64 years, and with the increase of years, the incidence peak gradually moved forward. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a downward trend. The ASMR decreased from 6.89/100 000 in 2012 to 4.93/100 000 in 2023 (AAPC=-3.12%, P<0.001). The ASMR of urban and rural females also showed a downward trend (urban: AAPC=-3.56%, P=0.007; rural: AAPC=-2.72%, P<0.001). The spatial analysis showed that from 2015 to 2023, the clustering areas of breast cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong had changed significantly. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASIR mainly included Wendeng District in Weihai City, Dongying District, Kenli District, Lijin County, Guangrao County in Dongying City, Tianqiao District, Shizhong District in Jinan City; In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Jiaxiang County, Liangshan County, Jinxiang County, Wenshang County, Rencheng District in Jining City, Hedong District in Linyi City, Guangrao County in Dongying City. In 2015, the "High-high clusters" of ASMR only included Wenshang County in Jining City. In 2023, the "High-high clusters" mainly included Laizhou County in Yantai City, Junan County and Yishui County in Linyi City, Gaotang County in Liaocheng City, Dongping County and Ningyang County in Taian City. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR trend of breast cancer in Shandong tended to be smooth (AAPC=0.33%, P=0.001). However, the ASMR remained decreasing (AAPC=-4.68%, P<0.001). Conclusions:The breast cancer incidence in Shandong showed an increasing trend, and it is expected to be smooth by 2030. However, the mortality showed a continuous downward trend. The incidence peak was mainly in the population aged 45-64 years, with obvious regional differences. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-risk groups and areas in Shandong Province.

Objective:To understand spatial aggregation of lung cancer mortality and its changing trends over the past fifty years in different counties and districts of Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of lung cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong province and three retrospective surveys of death cause. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate were used to describe the changing trend of lung cancer in different years, and the contribution value of population factors and non-population factors in lung cancer mortality change was calculated by the mortality differential decomposition method. GeoDa 1.20 and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used for spatial autocorrelation analysis and visualization map display.Results:The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend from 1970 to 2021, rising from 7.22 per 100 000 in 1970-1974 to 62.73 per 100 000 in 2020-2021, with an increase of 7.69 times. Meanwhile, the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The differential analysis of lung cancer mortality in different years revealed that changes in crude mortality rates were the result of the combined effects of demographic and non-demographic factors. The proportion of population factors (aging population) leading to an increase in lung cancer mortality rate rose from 2.12% in 1990-1992 to 40.20% in 2020-2021. From a spatial distribution perspective, there were significant regional differences in lung cancer mortality rates among counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province across different eras. Compared to the period of 1970-1974, the lung cancer mortality rates in all counties and districts in 2020-2021 showed a considerable increase, and there were noticeable changes in the areas of high-high and low-low clustering of lung cancer mortality rates across different eras.Conclusion:There have been significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. The crude mortality rate has shown an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate increases first and then decreases. The concentration of lung cancer mortality rates in counties and districts has also undergone significant changes.

Objective:To describe the distribution characteristics and trends of mortality and spatial aggregation of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021.Methods:The mortality data of esophageal cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and three national all-cause mortality retrospective surveys. The crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, the Segi′s world standard population) were used to describe the mortality of esophageal cancer. Mortality differential decomposition was applied to quantify the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors. The death levels of esophageal cancer in different counties (cities and districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and 2020 to 2021 were visualized by the ArcGIS 10.8 software, and global and local autocorrelation analyses were conducted by using the GeoDa 1.12 software.Results:The CMR of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province increased first and then decreased from 1970 to 2021. The CMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 17.59/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 14.32/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. The ASMR of esophageal cancer decreased from 20.04/100 000 in the period of 1970—1974 to 6.53/100 000 in the period of 2020—2021. Compared with the period of 1970—1974, both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 1990 to 1992. However, demographic factors continued to contribute to the increase in esophageal cancer mortality rate from 2004 to 2005, 2011 to 2013, and 2020 to 2021, while non-demographic factors contributed to the continuous decrease in esophageal cancer mortality rate. The global autocorrelation analysis results showed that the Moran′s I index of ASMR of esophageal cancer in each county (city, district) of Shandong Province from 1970 to 1974 and from 2020 to 2021 were 0.67 and 0.57, respectively. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 19 and 13 areas of high-high clustering of esophageal cancer in the periods of 1970—1974 and 2020—2021, respectively, with 12 overlapping counties (cities, districts). Conclusion:From 1970 to 2021, the CMR of esophageal cancer increases first and then decreases, while the ASMR of esophageal cancer gradually decreases in Shandong Province. The distribution of esophageal cancer mortality has significant spatial aggregation and changes over time.

Objective:To explore the spatial clustering of the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties (cities, districts) in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021 and its 50-year changing trend, so as to provide basis for the implementation and evaluation of prevention and control strategies and programs such as cervical cancer screening, early diagnosis and treatment, human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, etc.Methods:The mortality data of cervical cancer were obtained from the death registration system of Shandong Province and the data of three retrospective surveys of death causes. The mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (using the population composition of China in 1964) are used to describe the changing trend of cervical cancer in different years. The contribution values of population factors and non-population factors in cervical cancer mortality change are calculated by mortality differential decomposition method. ArcGIS 10.8 software is used for spatial distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Results:From 1970 to 2021, the crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province showed a trend of first rapid decline and then slow increase. The crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of female cervical cancer in Shandong Province in 1970-1974 were the highest, reaching 17.22/10 5 and 13.17/10 5, respectively. In 2004-2005, it dropped to the lowest levels of 1.50/10 5 and 0.83/10 5. Subsequently, it slowly rose to 4.12/10 5 and 1.56/10 5 in 2020-2021. The differential analysis of cervical cancer mortality in different years found that the change of cervical cancer mortality was caused by the combined action of population factors and non-population factors. Among them, demographic factors (aging population) led to the increase of cervical cancer mortality, but non-demographic factors (early diagnosis and treatment, HPV infection level, medical technology level, etc) lead to the decrease of cervical cancer mortality. Compared with 1970-1974, with the passage of time, the absolute values of the contribution values of population factors and non-population factors showed an increasing trend, while the contribution of non-population factors was greater than that of population factors, which led to the decline of cervical cancer mortality. From the perspective of spatial distribution, there were great regional differences in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in different counties of Shandong Province. In 2020-2021, the mortality rate of cervical cancer in all counties decreased to a great extent compared with that in 1970-1974, and the high-high and low-low concentration areas of cervical cancer mortality in different years changed obviously. The high-aggregation areas of the cervical cancer mortality rate in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2021 were mainly distributed in some counties and districts of Linyi City, Zaozhuang City, and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions:There are significant temporal and spatial changes in the mortality rate of cervical cancer in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2021. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial clustering, prevention and control strategies of cervical cancer in different regions should be further formulated and evaluated.

Objective:We aimed to analyse the trend of incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 and predict the development trend from 2023 to 2030.Methods:Data on incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Shandong province from 2012 to 2022 were obtained from Shandong Cancer Registry. The incidence, age-specific incidence, mortality and age-specific mortality in different years, sexes and urban and rural areas were calculated, the rates were standardized based on the age composition of the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated using Joinpoint software. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trend of stomach cancer incidence and mortality from 2023 to 2030.Results:From 2012 to 2022, the stomach cancer age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) showed a decreasing trend. The ASIR decreased from 27.47/100 000 in 2012 to 16.06/100 000 in 2022 (AAPC=-5.10%, P＜0.001), and the ASMR decreased from 17.69/100 000 to 11.09/100 000 (AAPC=-5.52%, P＜0.001). The ASIR and ASMR of male, female, urban and rural population also showed downward trends. The incidence and mortality rates of men were always higher than those of women, and the difference between urban and rural areas is gradually narrowing. In 2022, the ASIR (16.09/100 000 in urban and 16.03/100 000 in rural) and the ASMR (11.10/100 000 in urban and 11.08/100 000 in rural) of stomach cancer between urban and rural areas were nearly identical. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that the ASIR of stomach cancer in Shandong would further decrease from 2023 to 2030 (AAPC=-0.51%, P=0.001), but the change tended to be smooth. The incidences in male (AAPC=-1.46%, P=0.010) and rural areas (AAPC=-1.21%, P＜0.001) were still expected to have a little room for decline. The trend of incidences in female and urban areas were not statistically significant. The trend of mortality was consistent with the incidence. Conclusions:The stomach cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong shows a decreasing trend and it is expected to decrease further by 2030. However, the trend tends to be smooth, and the disease burden should be reduced as early as possible for high-risk population and high-risk factors of stomach cancer.

Objective:To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and estimate its age-period-cohort effect in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022.Methods:The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) based on the data on thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2022. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of thyroid cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years.Results:From 2012 to 2022, the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong province showed a significant upward trend, with an AAPC of 21.68% (95% CI: 19.14%-24.27%, P<0.001). The incidence of females was higher than that of males, and the incidence of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas. The trend of thyroid cancer mortality was relatively stable with an AAPC of -3.04% (95% CI:-8.81%-3.09%, P=0.323). The age effect of incidence increased with age before 60 years old and decreased with age after 60 years old. The incidence peaked in the age group of 55-59. The period effect increased with time. The cohort effect showed that the cohort born before 1957 had a downward trend over time, while the cohort born after 1957 had an upward trend. Conclusion:The incidence of thyroid cancer in Shandong shows a rising trend from 2012 to 2022. Age is an important factor affecting the risk of thyroid cancer. The mortality of thyroid cancer remains stable.