1.Application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province
Bilian ZHU ; Yingmei TANG ; Zhengrong DING ; Jibo HE ; Weimin BAO ; Qinnian LI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(4):37-41
Objective To explore the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in predicting the number of reported hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province,to use this model to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis E, and to provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of hepatitis E. Methods Monthly reported cases of hepatitis E in Yunnan Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected. The ARIMA model was established using SPSS 27.0, and the model was validated and parameters were optimized with data from January 2022 to December 2022. The optimal fitting model was used to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in 2023. Results Hepatitis E incidence in Yunnan Province showed a certain seasonal distribution, with most cases concentrated from March to August. All parameters of ARIMA(3,1,4)(1,1,1)12 passed statistical tests. The Ljung-Box test showed statistic Q =10.050, P = 0.346, residual sequence was a white noise sequence, and goodness-of-fit index stationary R² was 0.591. The model extrapolation effect was verified with 2022 data, and MAPE was 14.747, indicating that the model extrapolation effect was effective. The number of hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province in 2023 was expected to be 1,086. Conclusion The ARIMA (3,1,4)(1,1,1)12 model shows good fitting performance for hepatitis E cases in Yunnan Province and can effectively predict short-term disease trends, providing a theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control measures for hepatitis E.
2.Effect of Icariin on Steroid-induced Ferroptosis in Rat Bone Microvascular Endothelial Cells
Jiancheng TANG ; Yue ZHANG ; Ruichen JIANG ; Zhengrong YUE ; Ming LI ; Yaqi ZHANG ; Zetao YIN ; Weiguo WANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(5):131-140
ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of icariin (ICA) on steroid-induced ferroptosis in bone microvascular endothelial cells (BMECs). MethodsRat BMECs were selected and treated with 500 mg·L-1 hydrocortisone for 1.5 h to establish a ferroptosis model of BMECs. The experimental cells were divided into a blank group, hormone group (500 mg·L-1 hydrocortisone), ICA group (500 mg·L-1 hydrocortisone + 34 mg·L-1 ICA), and ferroptosis agonist group (500 mg·L-1 hydrocortisone + 34 mg·L-1 ICA + 2.7 mg·L-1 erastin). Cell viability was detected by CCK-8. The levels of ferrous ion, glutathione (GSH), malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and reactive oxygen species (ROS) were detected by related kit species. The ferroptosis-related proteins, such as glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4), ferritin light chain (FTL), and transferrin receptor protein1 (sTfR) were detected by Western blot, as well as autophagy-related proteins including microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3B (LC3B), Beclin1, B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2), and Caspase-3. Results500 mg·L-1 hydrocortisone intervention for 1.5 h could effectively induce ferroptosis in BMECs, and ferroptosis levels could reach a peak as the intervention continued. In terms of cellular antioxidant capacity, compared with those in the blank group, the cell vitality, GSH in the hormone group decreased significantly, and the levels of ROS, SOD, MDA, and ferrous ions were significantly increased (P<0.01). Compared with those in the hormone group, the cell viability, GSH were significantly increased, and the levels of ROS, SOD, MDA, and ferrous ions were decreased in the ICA group (P<0.01). Compared with those in the ICA group, the cell vitality, GSH in the ferroptosis agonist group decreased significantly, and the levels of ROS, SOD, MDA, and ferrous ions increased significantly (P<0.01). In terms of the relationship between ferroptosis and autophagy, compared with the blank group, the hormone group had significantly increased expression levels of LC3B, sTfR, Beclin1, and FTL and significantly decreased expression levels of GPX4 (P<0.01). Compared with the hormone group, The ICA group had significantly decreased expression levels of LC3B, sTfR, and FTL and significantly increased expression levels of Beclin 1 and GPX4 (P<0.01). Compared with those in the ICA group, the expression levels of LC3B, sTfR, and FTL increased in the rapamycin group, and those of Beclin 1 and GPX4 decreased (P<0.01). In terms of cell ferroptosis and apoptosis,compared with the blank group, the hormone group had significantly increased expression levels of FTL, sTfR and Caspase-3 and significantly decreased expression levels of GPX4, and Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with the hormone group, the ICA group had significantly decreased expression levels of FTL, sTfR and Caspase-3 and significantly increased expression levels of GPX4, and Bcl-2 (P<0.01). Compared with those in the ICA group, the expression levels of FTL, sTfR and Caspase-3 in the ferroptosis agonist group were increased, and the expression levels of GPX4, and Bcl-2 were decreased (P<0.01). In terms of cell function,compared with that in the blank group, the ability of cell migration and tube formation was significantly decreased in the hormone group (P<0.01). Compared with that in the hormone group, the cell migration and tube formation ability in the ICA group were significantly increased (P<0.01). ConclusionFerroptosis is involved in steroid-induced damage in BMECs. ICA can inhibit steroid-induced ferroptosis in BMECs, and the mechanism may be associated with the inhibition of ferroptosis by regulating autophagy.
3.Single-nucleus transcriptomics decodes the link between aging and lumbar disc herniation.
Min WANG ; Zan HE ; Anqi WANG ; Shuhui SUN ; Jiaming LI ; Feifei LIU ; Chunde LI ; Chengxian YANG ; Jinghui LEI ; Yan YU ; Shuai MA ; Si WANG ; Weiqi ZHANG ; Zhengrong YU ; Guang-Hui LIU ; Jing QU
Protein & Cell 2025;16(8):667-684
Lumbar disc (LD) herniation and aging are prevalent conditions that can result in substantial morbidity. This study aimed to clarify the mechanisms connecting the LD aging and herniation, particularly focusing on cellular senescence and molecular alterations in the nucleus pulposus (NP). We performed a detailed analysis of NP samples from a diverse cohort, including individuals of varying ages and those with diagnosed LD herniation. Our methodology combined histological assessments with single-nucleus RNA sequencing to identify phenotypic and molecular changes related to NP aging and herniation. We discovered that cellular senescence and a decrease in nucleus pulposus progenitor cells (NPPCs) are central to both processes. Additionally, we found an age-related increase in NFAT1 expression that promotes NPPC senescence and contributes to both aging and herniation of LD. This research offers fresh insights into LD aging and its associated pathologies, potentially guiding the development of new therapeutic strategies to target the root causes of LD herniation and aging.
Intervertebral Disc Displacement/metabolism*
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Humans
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Aging/pathology*
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Nucleus Pulposus/pathology*
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Male
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Female
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Transcriptome
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Middle Aged
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Lumbar Vertebrae/pathology*
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Adult
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Cellular Senescence
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Stem Cells/pathology*
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Aged
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Intervertebral Disc Degeneration/metabolism*
4.Saponins from Aralia taibaiensis protect against brain ischemia/reperfusion injuries by regulating the apelin/AMPK pathway.
Zhengrong LI ; Yuwen LIU ; Kedi LIU ; Xingru TAO ; Naping HU ; Wangting LI ; Jialin DUAN
Chinese Journal of Natural Medicines (English Ed.) 2025;23(3):299-310
Aralia taibaiensi, widely distributed in western China, particularly in the Qinba Mountains, has been utilized as a folk medicine for treating diabetes, gastropathy, rheumatism, and cardiovascular diseases. Saponins from A. taibaiensis (sAT) have demonstrated protective effects against oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction induced by ischemia/reperfusion (I/R). However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In vivo, middle cerebral artery occlusion/reperfusion (MCAO/R) induced inflammatory infiltration, neuronal injury, cell apoptosis, mitochondrial dysfunction, and oxidative stress in the ischaemic penumbra, which were effectively mitigated by sAT. sAT increased the mRNA and protein expression levels of apelin and its receptor apelin/apelin receptors (ARs) both in vivo and in vitro. (Ala13)-Apelin-13 (F13A) and small interfering RNA (siRNA) abolished the regulatory effects of sAT on neuroprotection mediated by adenosine 5'-monophosphate (AMP)-activated protein kinase (AMPK)/protein kinase B (Akt). Furthermore, sAT induced apelin/AR expression by simultaneously inhibiting P38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (P38 MAPK)/activating transcription factor 4 (ATF4) and upregulating hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α). Our findings indicate that sAT regulates apelin/AR/AMPK by inhibiting P38 MAPK/ATF4 and upregulating HIF-1a, thereby suppressing oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction.
Animals
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Reperfusion Injury/prevention & control*
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Aralia/chemistry*
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Saponins/administration & dosage*
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AMP-Activated Protein Kinases/genetics*
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Male
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Apelin/genetics*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Neuroprotective Agents/administration & dosage*
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Brain Ischemia/genetics*
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Rats, Sprague-Dawley
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Rats
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Oxidative Stress/drug effects*
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Apelin Receptors/genetics*
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Humans
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
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Mice
5.Incidence of postoperative complications in Chinese patients with gastric or colorectal cancer based on a national, multicenter, prospective, cohort study
Shuqin ZHANG ; Zhouqiao WU ; Bowen HUO ; Huining XU ; Kang ZHAO ; Changqing JING ; Fenglin LIU ; Jiang YU ; Zhengrong LI ; Jian ZHANG ; Lu ZANG ; Hankun HAO ; Chaohui ZHENG ; Yong LI ; Lin FAN ; Hua HUANG ; Pin LIANG ; Bin WU ; Jiaming ZHU ; Zhaojian NIU ; Linghua ZHU ; Wu SONG ; Jun YOU ; Su YAN ; Ziyu LI
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2024;27(3):247-260
Objective:To investigate the incidence of postoperative complications in Chinese patients with gastric or colorectal cancer, and to evaluate the risk factors for postoperative complications.Methods:This was a national, multicenter, prospective, registry-based, cohort study of data obtained from the database of the Prevalence of Abdominal Complications After Gastro- enterological Surgery (PACAGE) study sponsored by the China Gastrointestinal Cancer Surgical Union. The PACAGE database prospectively collected general demographic characteristics, protocols for perioperative treatment, and variables associated with postoperative complications in patients treated for gastric or colorectal cancer in 20 medical centers from December 2018 to December 2020. The patients were grouped according to the presence or absence of postoperative complications. Postoperative complications were categorized and graded in accordance with the expert consensus on postoperative complications in gastrointestinal oncology surgery and Clavien-Dindo grading criteria. The incidence of postoperative complications of different grades are presented as bar charts. Independent risk factors for occurrence of postoperative complications were identified by multifactorial unconditional logistic regression.Results:The study cohort comprised 3926 patients with gastric or colorectal cancer, 657 (16.7%) of whom had a total of 876 postoperative complications. Serious complications (Grade III and above) occurred in 4.0% of patients (156/3926). The rate of Grade V complications was 0.2% (7/3926). The cohort included 2271 patients with gastric cancer with a postoperative complication rate of 18.1% (412/2271) and serious complication rate of 4.7% (106/2271); and 1655 with colorectal cancer, with a postoperative complication rate of 14.8% (245/1655) and serious complication rate of 3.0% (50/1655). The incidences of anastomotic leakage in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer were 3.3% (74/2271) and 3.4% (56/1655), respectively. Abdominal infection was the most frequently occurring complication, accounting for 28.7% (164/572) and 39.5% (120/304) of postoperative complications in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer, respectively. The most frequently occurring grade of postoperative complication was Grade II, accounting for 65.4% (374/572) and 56.6% (172/304) of complications in patients with gastric and colorectal cancers, respectively. Multifactorial analysis identified (1) the following independent risk factors for postoperative complications in patients in the gastric cancer group: preoperative comorbidities (OR=2.54, 95%CI: 1.51-4.28, P<0.001), neoadjuvant therapy (OR=1.42, 95%CI:1.06-1.89, P=0.020), high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scores (ASA score 2 points:OR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.23-2.07, P<0.001, ASA score ≥3 points:OR=0.43, 95% CI: 0.25-0.73, P=0.002), operative time >180 minutes (OR=1.81, 95% CI: 1.42-2.31, P<0.001), intraoperative bleeding >50 mL (OR=1.29,95%CI: 1.01-1.63, P=0.038), and distal gastrectomy compared with total gastrectomy (OR=0.65,95%CI: 0.51-0.83, P<0.001); and (2) the following independent risk factors for postoperative complications in patients in the colorectal cancer group: female (OR=0.60, 95%CI: 0.44-0.80, P<0.001), preoperative comorbidities (OR=2.73, 95%CI: 1.25-5.99, P=0.030), neoadjuvant therapy (OR=1.83, 95%CI:1.23-2.72, P=0.008), laparoscopic surgery (OR=0.47, 95%CI: 0.30-0.72, P=0.022), and abdominoperineal resection compared with low anterior resection (OR=2.74, 95%CI: 1.71-4.41, P<0.001). Conclusion:Postoperative complications associated with various types of infection were the most frequent complications in patients with gastric or colorectal cancer. Although the risk factors for postoperative complications differed between patients with gastric cancer and those with colorectal cancer, the presence of preoperative comorbidities, administration of neoadjuvant therapy, and extent of surgical resection, were the commonest factors associated with postoperative complications in patients of both categories.
6.circFAT1 affects myocardial injury in rats with diabetic cardiomyopathy by regulating the miR-211-5p/CCND2 axis
Jun GU ; Zhengrong XU ; Li SHI ; Weidong REN ; Lijuan ZUO ; Qiuzi ZHANG
Journal of China Medical University 2024;53(6):516-524
Objective To explore the effect of circFAT1 on myocardial injury in rats with diabetic cardiomyopathy(DCM)and the regu-latory mechanism of circFAT1 on the miR-211-5p/CCND2 axis.Methods A DCM rat model was established by injecting rats with high glucose and high fat feed combined with STZ.The rats were randomly separated into DCM,circ-NC,circFAT1,circFAT1+agomir-NC,and circFAT1+miR-211-5p agomir groups,with 20 rats in each group;rats fed regular feed were used as control.Real-time PCR was used to detect the levels of circFAT1,miR-211-5p,and CCND2in myocardial tissue and Western blotting was used to detect CCND2 expression in myocardial tissue.The levels of fasting blood glucose(FBG),total cholesterol(TC),and triglycerides(TG)of rats were recorded.Car-diac ultrasound was used to detect the cardiac function of rats.Furthermore,HE and Masson staining were used to observe the pathological morphology of myocardial tissue and TUNEL staining was used to detect myocardial apoptosis.Additionally,ELISA was used to detect the levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β),IL-6,and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α).Double luciferase reporter gene assay was used to verify the targeting relationship among circFAT1,miR-211-5p,and CCND2.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of circFAT1 and CCND2mRNA and protein and the levels of LVEF and LVFS decreased in the DCM group(P<0.05)whereas,the levels of FBG,TC,TG,LVEDd,LVEDs,CVF,cell apoptosis rate,IL-1β,IL-6,and TNF-αincreased(P<0.05).Compared with the DCM group,the levels of circFAT1,CCND2mRNA and protein,LVEF,and LVFS increased in the circFAT1 group(P<0.05),whereas the levels of FBG,TC,TG,LVEDd,LVEDs,CVF,cell apoptosis rate,IL-1β,IL-6,and TNF-α decreased(P<0.05).Furthermore,miR-211-5p agomir reversed the protective effect of circFAT1 on DCM myocardial injury,and the expression of CCND2mRNA and protein decreased(P<0.05).Conclu-sion circFAT1 alleviates myocardial tissue damage in rats with DCM by regulating the miR-211-5p/CCND2 axis.
7.A trinity strategy for the treatment of multiple orthopedic trauma and assessment of its clinical application
Xiao CHEN ; Guangchao WANG ; Hao ZHANG ; Kaiyang LYV ; Qirong ZHOU ; Yunfei NIU ; Yan HU ; Yuanwei ZHANG ; Zuhao LI ; Hao SHEN ; Jin CUI ; Sicheng WANG ; Zhengrong GU ; Zhen GENG ; Dongliang WANG ; Zhehao FAN ; Shihao SHENG ; Chongru HE ; Jun FEI ; Yunfeng CHEN ; Haodong LIN ; Guohui LIU ; Zhiyong HOU ; Jiacan SU
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2024;40(10):888-896
Objective:To explore the clinical value of a trinity strategy for the treatment of multiple orthopedic trauma.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 1 267 patients with multiple orthopedic trauma admitted to Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine and the First Affiliated Hospital of Navy Medical University from June 2013 to May 2023, including 862 males and 405 females, aged 18-93 years [(55.2±19.8)years]. Associated injuries included hemorrhagic shock in 632 patients, traumatic wet lung in 274, cranial injuries in 135, abdominal and pelvic bleeding in 116, pneumothorax in 89, urinary injury in 13, and vesical rupture in 8. All the patients were treated with the trinity strategy and the treatment process was divided into the phases of first aid, remodeling, and rehabilitation. The first aid phase focused on stabilizing symptoms and saving lives; the remodeling phase centered on restoring the anatomical structure and alignment; the rehabilitation phase aimed for functional recovery through the integration of both Western and traditional Chinese medicine. The all-cause mortality within 30 days after surgery and fracture healing time were calculated; the excellent and good rates of Constant-Murley shoulder score, Mayo elbow score, Gartland-Werley wrist score, Harris hip score, Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) knee score and the American Orthopedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS) ankle-hindfoot score at the last follow-up and the overall excellent and good rate of all joint function scores were measured. The short form health survey (SF-36) scores were collected preoperatively and at 6 months postoperatively, including 8 aspects such as physical functioning, physical role, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, emotional role, and mental health. The incidence of postoperative complications was recorded.Results:All the patients were followed up for 6-18 months [(10.2±4.2)months]. The mortality rate during the acute phase (within 30 days after surgery) was 2.37% with 12 deaths due to hemorrhagic shock, 10 due to traumatic brain injury, 6 due to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), and 2 due to pulmonary infection. The average fracture healing time averaged 3.8-18 months [(11.5±4.2)months], with 89.49% of the patients having bone union within 12 months after surgery, 8.93% having bone union within 18 months after surgery, and 1.58% undergoing reoperation. For the patients with internal fixation failure and nonunion, the average healing time was extended to (10.2±2.2)months and (13.7±3.3)months respectively. At the last follow-up, the excellent and good rates of Constant-Murley shoulder score, Mayo elbow score, Gartland-Werley wrist score, Harris hip score, HSS knee score, and AOFAS ankle-hindfoot score were 83.93%, 90.24%, 94.12%, 85.57%, 88.46%, and 92.31% respectively, with an overall excellent and good rate of 89.11%. At 6 months after surgery, the SF-36 scores of all the patients in the eight dimensions,including the physical functioning, physical role, bodily pain, general health, vitality, social functioning, emotional role, and mental health were (74.4±8.6)points, (44.7±14.4)points, (77.4±10.9)points, (68.4±18.2)points, (72.5±16.0)points, (76.8±8.7)points, (49.9±17.6)points, and (72.8±17.9)points, significantly improved compared with those before operation [(63.4±12.7)points, (30.9±17.4)points, (56.4±18.0)points, (55.4±24.7)points, (53.5±21.0)points, (55.8±24.3)points, (36.9±24.0)points, (58.8±21.6)points] ( P<0.01). Complications of different degrees occurred in 214 patients (16.89%), including lung infections in 118 patients (9.31%), lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in 50(3.95%), pressure injuries in 26(2.05%), internal fixation failure in 12(0.95%), and nonunion in 8(0.63%). Conclusions:The trinity strategy provides whole-process management, personalized treatment, and overall rehabilitation for multiple orthopedic trauma. It can decrease mortality, shorten fracture healing time, improve joint function and quality of life, and reduce the incidence of complications.
8.Influence of CT examination bony parameters and surgical methods on difficult pelvis and perioperative efficacy of mid-low rectal cancer
Chao LAI ; Ahao WU ; Zongfeng FENG ; Zhengqing CAI ; Yi CAO ; Zhengrong LI
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2024;23(4):613-621
Objective:To investigate the influence of computer tomography (CT) examination bony parameters and surgical methods on difficult pelvis and perioperative efficacy of mid-low rectal cancer.Methods:The retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 191 patients who underwent robotic or laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (TME) for mid-low rectal cancer in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2021 to December 2022 were collected. There were 123 males and 68 females, aged (60±11)years. According to the surgical difficulty score, 191 patients were divided into the difficult pelvis group of 41 patients and the non-difficult pelvic group of 150 patients. Thirteen pelvic parameters were obtained on CT images of the 191 patients. Observation indicators: (1) comparison of intraoperative and postoperative conditions of patients in the difficult pelvis group and the non-difficult pelvis group; (2) analysis of factors affecting difficult pelvis in patients with mid-low rectal cancer; (3) stratified analysis of different surgical methods for patients with difficult pelvis. Measurement data with normal distribu-tion were represented as Mean± SD, and comparison between groups was conducted using the t test. Measurement data with skewed distribution were represented as M(range), and comparison between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers, and comparison between groups was conducted using the chi-square test or Fisher exact probability. Comparison of ordinal data was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using the Logistic regression model. Results:(1) Com-parison of intraoperative and postoperative conditions of patients in the difficult pelvis group and the non-difficult pelvis group. There were significant differences in operation time, volume of intra-operative blood loss, sum of the product of the longest diameters (SPD) of tumor lesions, postopera-tive complications, duration of postoperative hospital stay, and hospitalization expenses between the two groups ( t=-4.853, -5.816, Z=2.838, χ2=81.498, t=-5.897, -2.770, P<0.05). (2) Analysis of factors affecting difficult pelvis in patients with mid-low rectal cancer. Results of multivariate analysis showed that gender, age, pelvic inlet, distance between the sacral promontory and the coccyx, depth of the pelvis, line AB, angle A, and angle B were independent factors affecting difficult pelvis in patients with mid-low rectal cancer ( odds ratio=0.080, 1.067, 3.065, 0.004, 10 165.062, 0.019, 0.476, 0.662, 95% confidence interval as 0.016-0.409, 1.008-1.130, 1.388-6.767, 0.001-0.024, 477.574-216 361.071, 0.003-0.131, 0.358-0.632, 0.551-0.794, P<0.05). (3) Stratified analysis of different surgical methods for patients with difficult pelvis. ① Comparison of general preoperative data of patients with difficult pelvis receiving different surgical methods. Of the 41 mid-low rectal cancer patients with difficult pelvis, 15 underwent robotic TME, and 26 underwent laparoscopic TME. There was a significant difference in the body mass index between patients receiving the two surgical methods ( t=-2.055, P<0.05). ② Comparison of intraoperative and postoperative conditions of patients with difficult pelvis receiving different surgical methods. There was no significant difference in operation time, volume of intraoperative blood loss, SPD of tumor lesions, number of lymph nodes dissected, number of lymph node metastases, distance between tumor and anal verge, combined organ resection, postoperative complications, duration of postoperative hospital stay, hospitalization costs, T staging, N staging, M staging, vascular tumor thrombus, and nerve invasion ( P>0.05). Conclusions:Gender, age, pelvic inlet, distance between the sacral promontory and the coccyx, pelvic depth, AB line, angle A, and angle B are independent factors affecting difficult pelvis in patients with mid-low rectal cancer. There is no difference in perioperative outcomes between mid-low rectal cancer patients of difficult pelvis who received robotic surgery and laparoscopic surgery.
9.Analysis of factors affecting the postoperative development of femoral head necrosis in patients with femoral neck fracture and construction of a nomogram predictive model
Xihui ZHANG ; Zhengrong LI ; Shineng LI ; Zengyu XING ; Wenbo BAI
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2024;47(5):391-396
Objective:To analyze the related factors that affect the occurrence of femoral head necrosis in patients with femoral neck fracture after surgery, and to build a nomogram predictive model.Methods:Using a retrospective study method, 180 patients with femoral neck fracture who were admitted to Hainan Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from June 2019 to October 2021 were selected as the study objects. According to whether the patients had femoral head necrosis, they were divided into the occurrence group (75 cases) and the non occurrence group (105 cases). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive value; Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of postoperative femoral head necrosis; internal data were used to verify the clinical efficacy of nomogram model.Results:There was no significant difference in age, sex, body mass index and other general data between the two groups ( P>0.05); compared with the non occurrence group, Garden fracture in the occurrence group was mostly classified as type Ⅲ or Ⅳ, and more patients with preoperative traction, fracture displacement and unsatisfactory reduction quality, and the time from trauma to surgery was longer ( P>0.05). The area under curve of the time from trauma to surgery was 0.766 (95% CI 0.697 to 0.826), and the optimal cutoff value was 42 h; Garden fracture classification (type Ⅲ or Ⅳ), preoperative traction (yes), fracture displacement (yes), reduction quality (unsatisfactory) and time from trauma to surgery (>42 h) were the risk factors affecting the postoperative femoral head necrosis in patients with femoral neck fracture ( P<0.05). The risk of femoral head necrosis predicted by nomogram model was 0.802 (95% CI 0.692 to 0.873). The risk threshold of femoral head necrosis predicted by the model was >0.09, and nomogram model provides clinical net income. Conclusions:Garden fracture classification (type Ⅲ or Ⅳ), preoperative traction (yes), fracture displacement (yes), reduction quality (unsatisfactory) and time from trauma to surgery (>42 h) are the risk factors affecting the postoperative femoral head necrosis in patients with femoral neck fracture, and the nomogram model based on variables has a better predictive ability.
10.Correlation between zinc finger protein A20 and basic fibroblast growth factor and liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B
Song ZHANG ; Xiaoyu HUANG ; Minghui MENG ; Qian HU ; Zilong ZHAO ; Jian LI ; Haiyan KANG ; Dianxing SUN ; Zhengrong GUO
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine 2024;47(12):1061-1064
Objective:To study the correlation between zinc finger protein A20 (A20) and basic fibroblast growth factor (BFGF) and liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to select 120 patients with chronic hepatitis B diagnosed and treated in the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang City from January 2019 to December 2020, all of whom underwent liver tissue biopsy, and 25 cases of liver pathological specimens who underwent liver hemangioma resection were selected. The correlation between the expression of A20 and BFGF in liver tissue and the stage of hepatic fibrosis and inflammation were analyzed.Results:The expression of A20 in the S1 - S4 phase was higher than that in the S0 phase: (6.12 ± 1.22)%, (10.18 ± 2.43)%, (16.94 ± 5.06)%, (25.99 ± 7.57)% vs. (0.81 ± 0.29)%; the expression of BFGF in the S1 - S4 phase was higher than that in the S0 phase: (6.12 ± 1.22)%, (10.18 ± 2.43)%, (16.94 ± 5.06)%, (25.99 ± 7.57)% vs. (0.81 ± 0.29)%, there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). The expression of A20 in the G1 - G4 phase was higher than that in the G0 phase: (6.56 ± 1.87)%, (10.01 ± 3.29)%, (15.54 ± 5.01)%, (25.86 ± 8.02)% vs. (0.85 ± 0.71)%; the expression of BFGF in the G1 - G4 phase was higher than that in the G0 phase: (5.91 ± 1.52)%, (9.65 ± 2.48)%, (15.03 ± 4.86)%, (24.62 ± 7.22)% vs. (0.79 ± 0.41)%, there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). The results of Pearson test showed that there was a positive correlation between liver A20 and BFGF ( r = 0.824, P<0.05). Conclusions:The expressions of A20 and BFGF in liver tissue increase with the aggravation of liver pathological fibrosis and inflammation, which can be used as important indicators to evaluate the severity of liver fibrosis.


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