1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 2010‒2023
Shuang FENG ; Xiaobin REN ; Zhe WANG ; Zhaokai HE ; Yanyang TAO ; Qingjun KAO ; Zhou SUN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(2):129-134
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hangzhou, so as to provide an evidence for developing effective prevention and control measures and evaluating the control effects. MethodsThe incidence data of HFMD in Hangzhou were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the temporal, spatial and demographic distribution characteristics and etiology monitoring results of HFMD cases in Hangzhou from 2010 to 2023. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of incidence rate of HFMD. Furthermore, circular distribution method was utilized to calculate the incidence peak of HFMD. ResultsFrom 2010 to 2023, the average annual reported incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou was 138.85/100 000, the proportion of severe cases was 0.04%, the mortality rate was 0.01/100 000, and the case fatality rate was 5.30/100 000. Both the total incidence rate and the incidence rate by sex showed an increasing trend. The annual reported incidence rate in males (158.72/100 000) was higher than that in females (117.61/100 000). The reported incidence rate showed a significant seasonal characteristic, with summer being the peak of epidemic. The results of surveillance samples suggested that the prevalence of HFMD in Hangzhou is characterized by the co-existence of multiple pathogens, with EV-A71 and CV-A16 being the dominant pathogens in the previous years and CV-A6 being the dominant pathogen since 2018. The proportion of EV-A71 in severe cases (77.19%) was higher than that in ordinary cases (15.37%), in addition, its proportion in ordinary cases, severe cases, and fatal cases all showed a decreasing trend. ConclusionThe incidence rate of HFMD in Hangzhou is still high, so it’s still necessary to continue to strengthen the prevention and control measures for key populations. In recent years, CV-A6 has been the main prevalent pathogen in Hangzhou. Further efforts in pathogen detection and analysis should be enhanced in the future.
3.Finite element analysis of three internal fixation modalities for treatment of Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fractures under different loading conditions
Zhenggang LI ; Xuehong SHANG ; Zhang WU ; Hong LI ; Chaojun SUN ; Huadong CHEN ; Zhe SUN ; Yi YANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(3):455-463
BACKGROUND:There is still no consensus on the optimal internal fixation for the treatment of Pauwels Ⅲ femoral neck fracture,and most of the related finite element analyses have been performed using a single simplified loading condition,and the biomechanical properties of commonly used internal fixation devices need to be further investigated. OBJECTIVE:To analyze the biomechanical characteristics of Pauwels Ⅲ femoral neck fractures treated with cannulated compression screw,dynamic hip screw,and femoral neck system by finite element method under different loading conditions of single-leg standing loads and sideways fall loads. METHODS:The DICOM data of healthy adult femur were obtained by CT scanning,imported into Mimics 15.0 software to obtain the rough model of bone tissue.The data exported from Mimics were optimized by Geomagics software,and then three internal fixation models were built and assembled with the femur model according to the parameters of the clinical application of the cannulated compression screw,dynamic hip screw,and femoral neck system by using Pro/E software.Finally,the three internal fixation models were imported into Ansys software for loading and calculation to analyze the stress distribution and displacement of the femur and the internal fixation under different working conditions of single-leg standing loads and sideways fall loads,as well as the stress characteristics of the calcar femorale and Ward's triangle. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Under the single-leg standing load and the sideways fall load,the proximal femoral stress of the three internal fixation models was mainly distributed above the fracture end of the femoral neck.The peak stress of the proximal femoral end,fracture end,Ward triangle,and calcar femorale of the three internal fixation models were the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(2)Under the single-leg standing load and the sideways fall load,the peak displacement of the proximal femur of the three internal fixation models was all located at the top of the femoral head,and the peak displacement was the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(3)The peak displacement of the three internal fixation models was all located at the top of the internal fixation device under the single-leg standing and sideways fall loading conditions,and the peak displacement values were the smallest in the femoral neck system internal fixation model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw internal fixation model.(4)The internal fixation stress of the three internal fixation models was mainly distributed in the area near the fracture end of the internal fixation device under the single-leg standing and sideways fall loads,and the peak value of internal fixation stress was the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(5)These results suggest that the mechanical stability of the femoral neck system is the best,but there may be a risk of stress shielding of the fracture end and calcar femorale.The stress of the internal fixation device of the femoral neck system is more dispersed,and the risk of internal fixation break is lower.
4.Follow-up study of left heart valve regurgitation after implantation of left ventricular assist device
Junjiang LIU ; Wenrui MA ; Dingqian LIU ; Yun ZHAO ; Lili DONG ; Zhe LUO ; Kefang GUO ; Chunsheng WANG ; Xiaoning SUN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Medicine 2025;32(1):72-77
Objective To explore the valve regurgitation status of left heart after the implantation of left ventricular assist device (LVAD) and its effect on prognosis of patients with LVAD implantation. Methods A total of 35 patients with cardiomyopathy who underwent magnetic levitation LVAD implantation at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from February 2021 to July 2024 were retrospectively selected. Clinical data during hospitalization were collected, including preoperative basic data and postoperative valve regurgitation status. Telephone follow-ups were conducted to monitor patients’ survival status and transthoracic echocardiography was used to assess left valve function. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank test were employed to compare the survival rate of patients with different levels of valve regurgitation. Results The 35 patients had a mean age of (53.9±11.1) years, with 85.7% male, and 3 patients (8.6%) died during hospitalization. Preoperatively, 17 patients (48.6%) had moderate or greater mitral regurgitation, while all 35 patients had less than moderate aortic regurgitation. One month postoperatively, thirty patients were followed up, among which 24 patients (80%) had less than moderate mitral regurgitation, including 11 cases with alleviated regurgitation compared to pre-surgery; 6 patients (20%) had moderate or greater mitral regurgitation, including 4 cases with stable regurgitation and 2 cases with progression of regurgitation compared to pre-surgery; 2 patients (6.7%) had progression of aortic regurgitation to moderate or greater. The follow-up time was 1.2 (1.0, 2.1) years, with 1-year survival rate of 91.4% and 3-year survival rate of 71.1%. Survival analysis showed that the 3-year survival rate of patients with moderate or greater mitral regurgitation one month postoperatively was significantly lower than that of patients with less than moderate regurgitation (66.7% vs 83.3%, P=0.046). Conclusions After the implantation of magnetic levitation LVAD, most patients showed improvement in mitral regurgitation, while aortic regurgitation remained unchanged. The degree of mitral regurgitation one month postoperatively is associated with prognosis.
5.Effects of different feeding patterns on growth performance,blood physiological and biochemical indices and intestinal flora of beef calves
Xu TIAN ; Dezhi WANG ; Yue ZOU ; Yanling GUAN ; Zhibao WANG ; Lei SONG ; Wen YIN ; Xuefeng ZHANG ; Yuguo ZHEN ; Tao WANG ; Zhe SUN
Chinese Journal of Veterinary Science 2025;45(7):1516-1524
The aim of this experiment was to study the effects of different feeding modes on growth performance,blood biochemical indexes and intestinal flora of lactating Holstein male calves.Twenty-four newborn Holstein male calves with body mass of(40.00±1.01)kg and similar day old were selected and randomly divided into four groups of six calves each.The subgroups were low-milk group(LM),high-milk group(HM),high-milk milk replacer feeding group(HMR),and low-milk switching to high-milk milk replacer feeding group(CMR).The results showed that:At 45 d,the body mass of calves in the HM group was significantly higher than that of calves in the other groups(P<0.05),and at 60 d,the body mass of calves in the HM group was significantly higher than that of calves in the LM &.CMR groups(P<0.05).At 90 d,the body mass of calves in the LM group was significantly higher than that of calves in the HM group.Throughout the ex-perimental period,the average daily weight gain and average pellet feed intake of calves in the LM group were significantly higher than that of calves in the HM group(P<0.05).The calf globulin level in the HMR group was significantly higher than that in the LM and HM groups(P<0.05);the plasma immunoglobulin A level of calves in the HM group was significantly lower than that of calves in the LM and HMR groups(P<0.05);and the plasma immunoglobulin M level of calves in the HM group was significantly higher than that of calves in the LM and CMR groups(P<0.05),and HMR group was also significantly higher than that of LM group(P<0.05);plasma glutathione peroxidase level of calves in HMR group was significantly higher than that of LM group(P<0.05);plasma malondialdehyde level of calves in LM group was significantly higher than that of calves in HMR and HM groups(P<0.05),and CMR group was also significantly higher than that of HM group(P<0.05).Relative abundance of Thermodesulfovibrio was higher in the HM group(P<0.05),relative abundance of Bacteroidetes in the LM group was significantly higher than that in the HMR and HM groups(P<0.05),relative abundance of Blautia in the HM group(P<0.05),and relative abundance of Corynebacterium in the CMR group was significantly higher than that in the LM and HM groups(P<0.05).In summary,calves in the LM group had better weaning weights and pellet feed intake;calves in the CMR group could compensate for growth by supplemental feeding of milk replacer to obtain more optimal weaning weights and pel-let feed intake;the HMR group proved that milk-free feeding could ensure stable growth of calves;and calves in the HM group had a better pre-lactation growth performance,lower levels of oxida-tive stress,and a healthier fecal flora.
6.2024 Update of Chinese Guidelines for the Management of Hyperuricemia and Gout Part Ⅱ: Recommendations for Patients with Common Comorbidities
Changgui LI ; Mingshu SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Detian LI ; Changqian WANG ; Zibin TIAN ; Yuxiang DAI ; Zhe FENG ; Chengfu XU ; Dongbao ZHAO ; Feng WEI ; Bo BAN ; Chao XIE ; Zhenmei AN ; Jia LIU ; Zhuo LI ; Yuwei HE ; Xinde LI ; Fei YAN ; Lin HAN ; Lidan MA ; Xiaoyu CHENG ; Tian LIU ; Xufei LUO ; Lingling CUI ; Ying GONG ; Can WANG ; Yaolong CHEN ; Zhaohui LYU ; Yip Ronald ML ; Jiajun ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):918-929
The aim of this updated guideline is to provide comprehensive recommendations for the management of gout in patients with common comorbidities, such as chronic kidney disease(CKD), cardiovascular disease(CVD), diabetes, osteoarthritis(OA), and gastrointestinal disorders. This guideline was developed by a multidisciplinary expert panel consisting of specialists in endocrinology, rheumatology, nephrology, cardiology, gastroenterology, and methodology. The development process adhered to standard methodologies, including PICO(population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes) question deconstruction, systematic literature review, the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation(GRADE) for evidence and recommendation evaluation, Delphi voting, and expert consensus. The guideline presents 26 evidence-based recommendations addressing 7 clinical questions for patients with hyperuricemia and gout in the context of comorbidities. Key recommendations include the maintenance of strict serum urate targets, particularly for patients with CKD stage≥3, chronic gouty arthritis, and OA, in order to prevent disease progression. In patients with CVD or diabetes, intra-articular triamcinolone is preferred over systemic glucocorticoids. Prioritized anti-inflammatory treatments for patients with CKD, gastrointestinal diseases and OA are recommended. The guideline also introduces emerging therapies, such as interleukin-1 inhibitors and selective urate transport inhibitors, as potential treatment options for refractory cases. The update offers a comprehensive, patient-centered approach to managing gout, particularly in individuals with associated comorbidities. Multidisciplinary collaboration and emerging new treatments and evidence ensure the optimization of the recommendations.
7.Association between unilateral or bilateral hearing loss and multimorbidity among the oldest old in China
Yijun LIU ; Zhe ZHAO ; Juanfang ZHU ; Jinhai SUN ; Lei YUAN
Academic Journal of Naval Medical University 2025;46(8):1027-1034
Objective To investigate the associations between unilateral or bilateral hearing loss and 12 chronic diseases as well as multimorbidity among the oldest old in China,and to identify disparities in these associations of left-and right-side hearing loss with chronic diseases.Methods Totally 7 437 people aged ≥80 years old were selected from the Chinese Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey(CLHLS)2018 cross-sectional data.With 12 chronic diseases and multimorbidity as outcome variables,the hearing loss as explanatory variable,socio-demographic characteristics,family factors,and lifestyle as covariates,the correlations of unilateral(left-or right-side)and bilateral hearing loss with chronic diseases and multimorbidity were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression model,and the trend analyses were carried out.Results There were 205(2.76%),227(3.05%)and 3 598(48.38%)old people with left-side,right-side and bilateral hearing loss,respectively.After adjusting for confounders,the oldest old with left-sided or bilateral hearing loss had a greater risk of multimorbidity compared with those with normal hearing function,with odds ratio(95%confidence interval)of 2.14(1.58-2.90)and 1.27(1.13-1.43),respectively,while no association between right-sided hearing loss and multimorbidity was observed(P>0.05).Trend analysis showed that the risk of multimorbidity increased with hearing loss from none to unilateral and then to bilateral(P<0.001).Conclusion Hearing loss may be related to the increased risk of multimorbidity in the oldest old,and the risk of those with bilateral hearing loss is higher.More attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of hearing loss in the oldest old.
8.Nursing care of a patient with epilepsy caused by human parvovirus B19 infection after double lung transplantation
Zhe LI ; Lu LU ; Lin ZHU ; Yanyan SUN
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2025;60(20):2523-2526
To summarize the nursing experience of a patient infected with human parvovirus B19 induced epilepsy after double lung transplantation.The contents of nursing care were as follows:improving the early recognition of epileptic seizures and emergency response efficiency;implementing accurate assessment to master the best time for first aid;paying attention to the fear of epilepsy after lung transplantation,and implementing a matching exercise management program.Dynamic management of anti-rejection drugs and antiepileptic drugs were used to prevent adverse reactions;multipronged infection prevention measures were implemented to reduce the risk of transmission;psychological support and counseling should be paid attention to improve the treatment confidence and compliance of patients and their families.After careful treatment and nursing care,the patient recovered and was discharged 50 days after operation,and was followed up for 8 months with good recovery.
9.Preparation and in vitro evaluation of an erythrocyte-based butyrylcholinesterase delivery system
Zhe WANG ; Changwen NING ; Huaying AN ; Xingwei JIANG ; Jun MA ; Fenghua GAO ; Pengyu LIU ; Yanan SUN ; Ru LI ; Jinlong LI ; Yuanyuan YUAN ; Qun YU
Military Medical Sciences 2025;49(6):458-464
Objective To develop an erythrocyte-based delivery system for butyrylcholinesterase(BChE)that is capable of prophylaxis against organophosphorus nerve agents.Methods Recombinant BChE was produced and analyzed for oligomerization via polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis(PAGE)and Western blotting.A modified hypotonic preswelling method was employed to prepare BChE-loaded erythrocytes.The drug loading capacity and encapsulation efficiency were quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA).Catalytic activity was assessed in vitro with an activity detection kit.The system was characterized via scanning electron microscopy(SEM),flow cytometry and a hematology analyzer.Results Recombinant BChE predominantly existed as dimers(85%dimer,15%monomer).The optimized volume ratio of erythrocytes to hypotonic solution was determined as 1:7.Compared with native and empty erythrocytes,BChE-loaded erythrocytes exhibited significantly higher catalytic activity(P<0.001).The mean corpuscular volume of BChE-loaded erythrocytes increased(P<0.001),while the mean content of corpuscular hemoglobin and hemoglobin in erythrocytes per 100 mL decreased(P<0.001).SEM revealed no morphological differences(biconcave disc shape).Hypotonic preswelling moderately increased erythrocyte apoptosis(P<0.001),but no statistical difference was observed between BChE-loaded and hypotonic-treated erythrocytes(P>0.05).CD47 expression remained unchanged compared to native erythrocytes(P>0.05).Conclusion The modified hypotonic preswelling method can generate BChE-loaded erythrocytes that retain the characteristics of native erythrocytes while conferring catalytic activity,offering a novel strategy for clinical intervention against organophosphorus poisoning.
10.Knockdown of IGFBP7 promotes temozolomide sensitivity in glioma cells by inducing DNA damage and cellular senescence
Xiaoen GENG ; Zhijia SUN ; Jiangbo LI ; Zhe ZHOU
Military Medical Sciences 2025;49(10):728-737
Objective To investigate the effects of insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7(IGFBP7)on the sensitivity of glioma cells to temozolomide(TMZ)and the related mechanism.Methods IGFBP7 mRNA expression levels in TMZ-sensitive(U87 TMZ-S,U251 TMZ-S)and TMZ-resistant(U87 TMZ-R,U251 TMZ-R)glioma cells were analyzed using RNA sequencing data from the gene expression omnibus(GEO)dataset GSE151680.TMZ-resistant U87 and U251 cell lines were established via stepwise dose escalation.IGFBP7 expressions in TMZ-R cells were detected by quantitative real-time PCR(qPCR)and Western blotting.IGFBP7 was stably knock-downed in TMZ-R cells while IGFBP7 was stably overexpressed in TMZ-S cells using lentiviral infection.Cell viability,migration,invasion and TMZ sensitivity were assessed using CCK-8 assay,apoptosis assay,wound healing assay,Transwell invasion assay and colony formation assay respectively.Cellular senescence was detected by β-galactosidase(SA-β-Gal)staining.The expression levels of senescence molecular markers cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1(p21)and tumor protein p53(p53),as well as DNA damage marker γ-H2A histone family member X(γ-H2AX)were determined by Western blotting.The differences in mRNA expressions of IGFBP7 between glioma tissues and normal tissues as well as the correlations with the overall survival of glioma patients were analyzed using the cancer genome atlas(TCGA),Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas(CGGA),genotype-tissue expression(GTEx)database.Results Compared to normal glioma cells,IGFBP7 expressions were significantly elevated in TMZ-R glioma cells.Overexpression of IGFBP7 in TMZ-S glioma cells enhanced cell viability but suppressed apoptosis following TMZ treatment.The expressions of senescence-associated marker(p21,p53)and DNA damage marker(γ-H2AX)were upregulated in these cells.Notably,IGFBP7 expressions were significantly higher in glioma tissues than in normal tissues,and high IGFBP7 expressions were associated with poor prognosis in glioma patients.Conclusion Knockdown of IGFBP7 promotes TMZ-induced cell senescence and DNA damage,thereby enhancing the sensitivity of gliomas cells to TMZ.


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