1.Synthetic MRI Combined With Clinicopathological Characteristics for Pretreatment Prediction of Chemoradiotherapy Response in Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Siyu CHEN ; Jiankun DAI ; Jing ZHAO ; Shuang HAN ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jun CHANG ; Donghui JIANG ; Heng ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Shudong HU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(2):135-145
Objective:
To explore the feasibility of synthetic magnetic resonance imaging (syMRI) combined with clinicopathological characteristics for the pre-treatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) response in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (ANPC).
Materials and Methods:
Patients with ANPC treated with CRT between September 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively enrolled and categorized into response group (RG, n = 95) and non RGs (NRG, n = 32) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1. The quantitative parameters from pre-treatment syMRI (longitudinal [T1] and transverse [T2] relaxation times and proton density [PD]), diffusion-weighted imaging (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC]), and clinicopathological characteristics were compared between RG and NRG. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify parameters independently associated with CRT response and to construct a multivariable model. The areas under the receiveroperating characteristic curve (AUC) for various diagnostic approaches were compared using the DeLong test.
Results:
The T1, T2, and PD values in the NRG were significantly lower than those in the RG (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed in the ADC values between these two groups. Clinicopathological characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus [EBV]-DNA level, lymph node extranodal extension, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression) exhibited significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that T1, PD, EBV-DNA level, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression had significant independent relationships with CRT response (all P < 0.05). The multivariable model incorporating these five variables yielded AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.974, 93.8% (30/32), and 91.6% (87/95), respectively.
Conclusion
SyMRI may be used for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response in ANPC. The multivariable model incorporating syMRI quantitative parameters and clinicopathological characteristics, which were independently associated with CRT response, may be a new tool for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response.
2.Synthetic MRI Combined With Clinicopathological Characteristics for Pretreatment Prediction of Chemoradiotherapy Response in Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Siyu CHEN ; Jiankun DAI ; Jing ZHAO ; Shuang HAN ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jun CHANG ; Donghui JIANG ; Heng ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Shudong HU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(2):135-145
Objective:
To explore the feasibility of synthetic magnetic resonance imaging (syMRI) combined with clinicopathological characteristics for the pre-treatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) response in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (ANPC).
Materials and Methods:
Patients with ANPC treated with CRT between September 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively enrolled and categorized into response group (RG, n = 95) and non RGs (NRG, n = 32) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1. The quantitative parameters from pre-treatment syMRI (longitudinal [T1] and transverse [T2] relaxation times and proton density [PD]), diffusion-weighted imaging (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC]), and clinicopathological characteristics were compared between RG and NRG. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify parameters independently associated with CRT response and to construct a multivariable model. The areas under the receiveroperating characteristic curve (AUC) for various diagnostic approaches were compared using the DeLong test.
Results:
The T1, T2, and PD values in the NRG were significantly lower than those in the RG (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed in the ADC values between these two groups. Clinicopathological characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus [EBV]-DNA level, lymph node extranodal extension, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression) exhibited significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that T1, PD, EBV-DNA level, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression had significant independent relationships with CRT response (all P < 0.05). The multivariable model incorporating these five variables yielded AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.974, 93.8% (30/32), and 91.6% (87/95), respectively.
Conclusion
SyMRI may be used for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response in ANPC. The multivariable model incorporating syMRI quantitative parameters and clinicopathological characteristics, which were independently associated with CRT response, may be a new tool for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response.
3.Synthetic MRI Combined With Clinicopathological Characteristics for Pretreatment Prediction of Chemoradiotherapy Response in Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Siyu CHEN ; Jiankun DAI ; Jing ZHAO ; Shuang HAN ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jun CHANG ; Donghui JIANG ; Heng ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Shudong HU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(2):135-145
Objective:
To explore the feasibility of synthetic magnetic resonance imaging (syMRI) combined with clinicopathological characteristics for the pre-treatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) response in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (ANPC).
Materials and Methods:
Patients with ANPC treated with CRT between September 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively enrolled and categorized into response group (RG, n = 95) and non RGs (NRG, n = 32) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1. The quantitative parameters from pre-treatment syMRI (longitudinal [T1] and transverse [T2] relaxation times and proton density [PD]), diffusion-weighted imaging (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC]), and clinicopathological characteristics were compared between RG and NRG. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify parameters independently associated with CRT response and to construct a multivariable model. The areas under the receiveroperating characteristic curve (AUC) for various diagnostic approaches were compared using the DeLong test.
Results:
The T1, T2, and PD values in the NRG were significantly lower than those in the RG (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed in the ADC values between these two groups. Clinicopathological characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus [EBV]-DNA level, lymph node extranodal extension, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression) exhibited significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that T1, PD, EBV-DNA level, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression had significant independent relationships with CRT response (all P < 0.05). The multivariable model incorporating these five variables yielded AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.974, 93.8% (30/32), and 91.6% (87/95), respectively.
Conclusion
SyMRI may be used for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response in ANPC. The multivariable model incorporating syMRI quantitative parameters and clinicopathological characteristics, which were independently associated with CRT response, may be a new tool for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response.
4.Synthetic MRI Combined With Clinicopathological Characteristics for Pretreatment Prediction of Chemoradiotherapy Response in Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Siyu CHEN ; Jiankun DAI ; Jing ZHAO ; Shuang HAN ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jun CHANG ; Donghui JIANG ; Heng ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Shudong HU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(2):135-145
Objective:
To explore the feasibility of synthetic magnetic resonance imaging (syMRI) combined with clinicopathological characteristics for the pre-treatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) response in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (ANPC).
Materials and Methods:
Patients with ANPC treated with CRT between September 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively enrolled and categorized into response group (RG, n = 95) and non RGs (NRG, n = 32) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1. The quantitative parameters from pre-treatment syMRI (longitudinal [T1] and transverse [T2] relaxation times and proton density [PD]), diffusion-weighted imaging (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC]), and clinicopathological characteristics were compared between RG and NRG. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify parameters independently associated with CRT response and to construct a multivariable model. The areas under the receiveroperating characteristic curve (AUC) for various diagnostic approaches were compared using the DeLong test.
Results:
The T1, T2, and PD values in the NRG were significantly lower than those in the RG (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed in the ADC values between these two groups. Clinicopathological characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus [EBV]-DNA level, lymph node extranodal extension, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression) exhibited significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that T1, PD, EBV-DNA level, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression had significant independent relationships with CRT response (all P < 0.05). The multivariable model incorporating these five variables yielded AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.974, 93.8% (30/32), and 91.6% (87/95), respectively.
Conclusion
SyMRI may be used for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response in ANPC. The multivariable model incorporating syMRI quantitative parameters and clinicopathological characteristics, which were independently associated with CRT response, may be a new tool for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response.
5.Synthetic MRI Combined With Clinicopathological Characteristics for Pretreatment Prediction of Chemoradiotherapy Response in Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Siyu CHEN ; Jiankun DAI ; Jing ZHAO ; Shuang HAN ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Jun CHANG ; Donghui JIANG ; Heng ZHANG ; Peng WANG ; Shudong HU
Korean Journal of Radiology 2025;26(2):135-145
Objective:
To explore the feasibility of synthetic magnetic resonance imaging (syMRI) combined with clinicopathological characteristics for the pre-treatment prediction of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) response in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (ANPC).
Materials and Methods:
Patients with ANPC treated with CRT between September 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively enrolled and categorized into response group (RG, n = 95) and non RGs (NRG, n = 32) based on the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) 1.1. The quantitative parameters from pre-treatment syMRI (longitudinal [T1] and transverse [T2] relaxation times and proton density [PD]), diffusion-weighted imaging (apparent diffusion coefficient [ADC]), and clinicopathological characteristics were compared between RG and NRG. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify parameters independently associated with CRT response and to construct a multivariable model. The areas under the receiveroperating characteristic curve (AUC) for various diagnostic approaches were compared using the DeLong test.
Results:
The T1, T2, and PD values in the NRG were significantly lower than those in the RG (all P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed in the ADC values between these two groups. Clinicopathological characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus [EBV]-DNA level, lymph node extranodal extension, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression) exhibited significant differences between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that T1, PD, EBV-DNA level, clinical stage, and Ki-67 expression had significant independent relationships with CRT response (all P < 0.05). The multivariable model incorporating these five variables yielded AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.974, 93.8% (30/32), and 91.6% (87/95), respectively.
Conclusion
SyMRI may be used for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response in ANPC. The multivariable model incorporating syMRI quantitative parameters and clinicopathological characteristics, which were independently associated with CRT response, may be a new tool for the pretreatment prediction of CRT response.
6.Trends of diabetes in Beijing, China.
Aijuan MA ; Jun LYU ; Zhong DONG ; Li NIE ; Chen XIE ; Bo JIANG ; Xueyu HAN ; Jing DONG ; Yue ZHAO ; Liming LI
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(6):713-720
BACKGROUND:
The global rise in diabetes prevalence is a pressing concern. Despite initiatives like "The Healthy Beijing Action 2020-2030" advocating for increased awareness, treatment, and control, the specific situation in Beijing remains unexplored. This study aimed to analyze the trends in diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control among Beijing adults.
METHODS:
Through a stratified multistage probability cluster sampling method, a series of representative cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Beijing from 2005 to 2022, targeting adults aged 18-79 years. A face-to-face questionnaire, along with body measurements and laboratory tests, were administered to 111,943 participants. Data from all survey were age- and/or gender-standardized based on the 2020 Beijing census population. Annual percentage rate change (APC) or average annual percentage rate change (AAPC) was calculated to determine prevalence trends over time. Complex sampling logistic regression models were employed to explore the relationship between various characteristics and diabetes.
RESULTS:
From 2005 to 2022, the total prevalence of diabetes among Beijing adults aged 18-79 years increased from 9.6% (95% CI: 8.8-10.4%) to 13.9% (95% CI: 13.1-14.7%), with an APC/AAPC of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.1-3.2%, P <0.05). Significant increases were observed among adults aged 18-39 years and rural residents. Undiagnosed diabetes rose from 3.5% (95% CI: 3.2-4.0%) to 7.2% (95% CI: 6.6-7.9%) with an APC/AAPC of 4.1% (95% CI: 0.5-7.3%, P <0.05). However, diabetes awareness and treatment rates showed annual declines of 1.4% (95% CI: -3.0% to -0.2%, P <0.05) and 1.3% (95% CI: -2.6% to -0.2%, P <0.05), respectively. The diabetes control rate decreased from 21.5% to 19.1%, although not statistically significant (APC/AAPC = -1.5%, 95% CI: -5.6% to 1.9%). Overweight and obesity were identified as risk factors for diabetes, with ORs of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.38-1.98) and 2.48 (95% CI: 2.07-2.99), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The prevalence of diabetes in Beijing has significantly increased between 2005 and 2022, particularly among young adults and rural residents. Meanwhile, there has been a concerning decrease in diabetes awareness and treatment rates, while control rates have remained stagnant. Regular blood glucose testing, especially among adults aged 18-59 years, should be warranted. Furthermore, being male, elderly, overweight, or obese was associated with higher diabetes risk, suggesting the needs for targeted management strategies.
Humans
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
Male
;
Female
;
Aged
;
Adolescent
;
Young Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology*
;
Beijing/epidemiology*
;
Prevalence
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
7.Protective effect of sub-hypothermic mechanical perfusion combined with membrane lung oxygenation on a yorkshire model of brain injury after traumatic blood loss.
Xiang-Yu SONG ; Yang-Hui DONG ; Zhi-Bo JIA ; Lei-Jia CHEN ; Meng-Yi CUI ; Yan-Jun GUAN ; Bo-Yao YANG ; Si-Ce WANG ; Sheng-Feng CHEN ; Peng-Kai LI ; Heng CHEN ; Hao-Chen ZUO ; Zhan-Cheng YANG ; Wen-Jing XU ; Ya-Qun ZHAO ; Jiang PENG
Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2025;28(6):469-476
PURPOSE:
To investigate the protective effect of sub-hypothermic mechanical perfusion combined with membrane lung oxygenation on ischemic hypoxic injury of yorkshire brain tissue caused by traumatic blood loss.
METHODS:
This article performed a random controlled trial. Brain tissue of 7 yorkshire was selected and divided into the sub-low temperature anterograde machine perfusion group (n = 4) and the blank control group (n = 3) using the random number table method. A yorkshire model of brain tissue injury induced by traumatic blood loss was established. Firstly, the perfusion temperature and blood oxygen saturation were monitored in real-time during the perfusion process. The number of red blood cells, hemoglobin content, NA+, K+, and Ca2+ ions concentrations and pH of the perfusate were detected. Following perfusion, we specifically examined the parietal lobe to assess its water content. The prefrontal cortex and hippocampus were then dissected for histological evaluation, allowing us to investigate potential regional differences in tissue injury. The blank control group was sampled directly before perfusion. All statistical analyses and graphs were performed using GraphPad Prism 8.0 Student t-test. All tests were two-sided, and p value of less than 0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance.
RESULTS:
The contents of red blood cells and hemoglobin during perfusion were maintained at normal levels but more red blood cells were destroyed 3 h after the perfusion. The blood oxygen saturation of the perfusion group was maintained at 95% - 98%. NA+ and K+ concentrations were normal most of the time during perfusion but increased significantly at about 4 h. The Ca2+ concentration remained within the normal range at each period. Glucose levels were slightly higher than the baseline level. The pH of the perfusion solution was slightly lower at the beginning of perfusion, and then gradually increased to the normal level. The water content of brain tissue in the sub-low and docile perfusion group was 78.95% ± 0.39%, which was significantly higher than that in the control group (75.27% ± 0.55%, t = 10.49, p < 0.001), and the difference was statistically significant. Compared with the blank control group, the structure and morphology of pyramidal neurons in the prefrontal cortex and CA1 region of the hippocampal gyrus were similar, and their integrity was better. The structural integrity of granulosa neurons was destroyed and cell edema increased in the perfusion group compared with the blank control group. Immunofluorescence staining for glail fibrillary acidic protein and Iba1, markers of glial cells, revealed well-preserved cell structures in the perfusion group. While there were indications of abnormal cellular activity, the analysis showed no significant difference in axon thickness or integrity compared to the 1-h blank control group.
CONCLUSIONS
Mild hypothermic machine perfusion can improve ischemia and hypoxia injury of yorkshire brain tissue caused by traumatic blood loss and delay the necrosis and apoptosis of yorkshire brain tissue by continuous oxygen supply, maintaining ion homeostasis and reducing tissue metabolism level.
Animals
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Perfusion/methods*
;
Disease Models, Animal
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Brain Injuries/etiology*
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Swine
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Male
;
Hypothermia, Induced/methods*
8.Relationship between polygenic risk scores for various psychiatric disorders and clinical and neuropsychological characteristics in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.
Zhao-Min WU ; Peng WANG ; Chao DONG ; Xiao-Lan CAO ; Lan-Fang HU ; Cong KOU ; Jia-Jing JIANG ; Lin-Lin ZHANG ; Li YANG ; Yu-Feng WANG ; Ying LI ; Bin-Rang YANG
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(9):1089-1097
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the relationship between the polygenic risks for various psychiatric disorders and clinical and neuropsychological characteristics in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
METHODS:
Using a cross-sectional design, 285 children with ADHD and 107 healthy controls were assessed using the Child Behavior Checklist, the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function for parents, the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Fourth Edition, and the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery. Blood samples were collected for genetic data. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for various psychiatric disorders were calculated using the PRSice-2 software.
RESULTS:
Compared with the healthy controls, the children with ADHD displayed significantly higher PRSs for ADHD, major depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder (P<0.05). In terms of daily-life executive function, ADHD-related PRS was significantly correlated with the working memory factor; panic disorder-related PRS was significantly correlated with the initiation factor; bipolar disorder-related PRS was significantly correlated with the shift factor; schizophrenia-related PRS was significantly correlated with the inhibition, emotional control, initiation, working memory, planning, organization, and monitoring factors (P<0.05). The PRS related to anxiety disorders was negatively correlated with total IQ and processing speed index (P<0.05). The PRS related to obsessive-compulsive disorder was negatively correlated with the processing speed index and positively correlated with the stop-signal reaction time index of the stop-signal task (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
PRSs for various psychiatric disorders are closely correlated with the behavioral and cognitive characteristics in children with ADHD, which provides more insights into the heterogeneity of ADHD.
Humans
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Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/genetics*
;
Child
;
Male
;
Female
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
;
Neuropsychological Tests
;
Multifactorial Inheritance
;
Adolescent
;
Mental Disorders/etiology*
;
Executive Function
;
Genetic Risk Score
9.Study on the 90-day Feeding Experimental Background Data of SD Rats for Drug Safety Evaluation
Chao QIN ; Shuangxing LI ; Tingting ZHAO ; Chenchen JIANG ; Jing ZHAO ; Yanwei YANG ; Zhi LIN ; Sanlong WANG ; Hairuo WEN
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2025;45(4):439-448
ObjectiveTo establish background data for a 90-day feeding trial of SD rats to ensure the reliability of research data. MethodsBackground data from six independent 90-day feeding trials of SD rats conducted by the National Center for Safety Evaluation of Drugs from 2020 to 2023 were summarized. These studies involved a blank control group of 120 SPF-grade 4-week-old SD rats, with an equal number of males and females, which were only given standard full-nutrient pelleted rat feed. After the quarantine period, the animals were observed for an additional 90 days, followed by intraperitoneal injection of Zoletil (50 mg/mL) for anesthesia, blood sampling, euthanasia, and necropsy. By analyzing the data from the blank control group, a relevant background database for SD rats was established. ResultsBoth male and female rats exhibited steady weight gain, with a more pronounced increase in male rats. Within 90 days, the average body weight of male and female rats increased to over 500 g and 300 g, respectively. Three weeks later, the average daily food intake of male rats stabilized at approximately 25~28 g per rat, while that of female rats remained stable at approximately 16~19 g per rat. The food utilization rate of all animals gradually decreased from the first week of the experiment. In the white blood cell (WBC) differential count results, significant differences were observed in the counts of WBCs, neutrophils (Neut), lymphocytes (Lymph), and monocytes (Mono) between males and females (P<0.001). However, there were no significant differences in the percentages of neutrophil (%Neut), lymphocyte (%Lymph), and monocyte (%Mono) between the sexes (P>0.05). The average red blood cell count (RBC), hemoglobin concentration (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) were higher in male animals than in female animals (P<0.05). The average values of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), creatine phosphokinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), glucose (GLU), and triglyceride (TG) in male rats were higher than those in female rats (P<0.05). The urinary pH range for male animals was 5.0 to 8.5, while for female animals it was 6.5 to 9.0. The majority of male animals had a urinary specific gravity lower than 1.020, and the majority of female animals had a urinary specific gravity lower than 1.015. The weights of various organs (excluding the adrenal glands and reproductive organs) in male animals were heavier than those in female animals (P<0.001), while the organ/body weight ratios (excluding the kidneys and reproductive organs) of female animals were higher than those of male animals (P<0.001). ConclusionThis study summarizes the background reference ranges for body weight, food intake, hematology, and serum biochemistry indicators in SPF-grade SD rats in the untreated control group from six 90-day feeding trials conducted by the National Center for Safety Evaluation of Drugs. It provides important reference data for related research. By summarizing the background and spontaneous histopathological changes in rats, this study aids in the standardization and normalization of subsequent research, as well as in the evaluation and analysis of abnormal results.
10.Development of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease incidence in community-dwelling population aged 40 years and above in Shanghai
Yixuan ZHANG ; Yiling WU ; Jinxin ZANG ; Xuyan SU ; Xin YIN ; Jing LI ; Wei LUO ; Minjun YU ; Wei WANG ; Qi ZHAO ; Qin WANG ; Genming ZHAO ; Yonggen JIANG ; Na WANG
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(8):669-675
ObjectiveTo develop a nomogram-based risk prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence among the community-dwelling population aged 40 years old and above, so as to provide targeted references for the screening and prevention of COPD. MethodsBased on a natural population cohort in suburban Shanghai, a total of 3 381 randomly selected participants aged ≥40 years underwent pulmonary function tests between July and October 2021. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to develop overall and gender-specific risk prediction models, along with the construction of corresponding risk nomograms. Model predictive performance was evaluated using the C-indice, area under the curve (AUC) values, and Brier score. Stability was assessed through 10-fold cross-validation and sensitivity analysis. ResultsA total of 3 019 participants were included, with a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years. The COPD incidence density was 17.22 per 1 000 person-years, significantly higher in males (32.04/1 000 person-years) than that in females (7.38/1 000 person-years) (P<0.001). The overall risk prediction model included the variables such as gender, age, education level, BMI, smoking, passive smoking, and respiratory comorbidities. The male-specific model incorporated the variables such as age, BMI, respiratory comorbidities, and smoking, while the female-specific model included age, marital status, respiratory comorbidities, and pulmonary tuberculosis history. The C-indices for the overall, male-specific, and female-specific models were 0.829, 0.749, and 0.807, respectively. The 5-year AUC values were 0.785, 0.658, and 0.811, with Brier scores of 0.103, 0.176, and 0.059, respectively. Both 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and sensitivity analysis (excluding participants with a follow-up duration of <6 months) yielded C-indices were above 0.740. ConclusionThis study developed concise and practical overall and gender-specific COPD risk prediction models and corresponding nomograms. The models demonstrated robust performance in predicting COPD incidence, providing a valuable reference for identifying high-risk populations and formulating targeted screening and personalized management strategies.

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