1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.High-altitude exposure on retinal damage and oxidative stress levels
Quan ZHAO ; Song WANG ; Chen YIN ; Meng JING ; Juan MA ; Yan CAI
International Eye Science 2026;26(5):760-766
AIM:To investigate the effects of high-altitude hypoxic exposure on retinal injury and the associated changes in oxidative stress-related indicators in rats. METHODS: Twenty-four healthy male Sprague-Dawley(SD)rats were randomly divided into a plain group and a high-altitude group, with 12 rats(24 eyes)in each group. Rats in the plain group were housed under normoxic conditions in an SPF-grade animal facility, whereas rats in the high-altitude group were placed in a special environmental chamber simulating an altitude of 6 000 m for 7 d. Optical coherence tomography(OCT)was used to assess retinal layer architecture and quantify retinal thickness. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE)staining was performed to observe retinal histopathological changes. Immunofluorescence(IF)was used to detect the expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α(HIF-1α)in retinal tissue. Transmission electron microscopy(TEM)was applied to examine the ultrastructure of retinal ganglion cells(RGCs). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA)was used to measure the levels of malondialdehyde(MDA), total superoxide dismutase(T-SOD), and reduced glutathione(GSH)in retinal tissue. In addition, intracellular reactive oxygen species(ROS)levels in retinal tissue were assessed using the 2',7'-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate(DCFH-DA)fluorescent probe. RESULTS: OCT examination revealed disorganized retinal architecture in the high-altitude group, with increased inner and middle ring thickness and decreased outer ring thickness compared with the plain group(all P<0.05). HE staining showed varying degrees of retinal layer damage, blurred layer boundaries, loosely arranged RGCs, and partial cellular necrosis in the high-altitude group. IF analysis demonstrated significantly increased HIF-1α expression in the inner nuclear layer of the high-altitude group(P<0.01). TEM revealed mitochondrial swelling, disrupted cristae, and reduced matrix electron density in RGCs of the high-altitude group. ELISA and fluorescence probe assays showed significantly elevated MDA levels and ROS fluorescence intensity, accompanied by decreased T-SOD and GSH levels in the retinal tissue of the high-altitude group(all P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Exposure to a high-altitude hypoxic environment induces marked morphological and ultrastructural damage in the rat retina and significantly enhances oxidative stress, suggesting that oxidative stress may play a critical role in retinal injury induced by high-altitude hypoxia.
3.Investigation of radon activity concentration and dose assessment in subways of Nanning City, China
Xiufang LU ; Yilong MA ; Rongzheng HUANG ; Ziyue LI ; Jiajie LEI ; Lanying FENG ; Zhangfan CHEN ; Xinchun ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2026;35(1):67-73
Objective To investigate the radon activity concentrations in subways of Nanning City and assess the average annual effective doses for subway staff and passengers due to radon exposure. Methods Sixty-three stations across the subway lines 2, 3, and 5 were selected as study sites. Radon activity concentrations were measured using the scintillation counting method with scintillation vials. Results The radon activity concentrations in subway lines 2, 3, and 5 were 7.9-24.4, 12.0-26.2, and 12.6-18.2 Bq/m3, respectively. The average radon activity concentrations for these three lines were (17.4 ± 4.6), (19.1 ± 4.1), and (14.6 ± 1.7) Bq/m3, respectively. Statistical analysis using SPSS 26.0 software revealed a significant difference in radon activity concentrations among these stations (P<0.01). Considering the data in previous research, the average radon activity concentration across all stations in the subway lines of Nanning City was determined to be 17.4 Bq/m3. The estimated average annual effective dose due to radon exposure was 0.131 mSv for subway staff and 0.033 mSv for passengers. Conclusion The radon activity concentrations in the subway lines of Nanning City were significantly lower than the national standard limit (400 Bq/m3). The annual effective doses from radon exposure for both subway staff and passengers were below the limits specified in the Basic Standards for Protection Against Ionizing Radiation and for the Safety of Radiation Sources (GB18871—2002). The health impact of radon and its progeny on subway staff and passengers in the subway lines of Nanning City was extremely low and can be considered negligible.
4.FAH promotes glioblastoma progression by activating the PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway
Shihao LI ; Bing ZHAO ; Tieniu YANG ; Jinliang YANG ; Yongliang ZHANG ; Zhongsen LI ; Shunli LI ; Ning CHEN ; Jianbiao WANG ; Jia LI ; Qingfang MA
Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026;61(4):662-676
ObjectiveTo investigate the functional role and underlying molecular mechanisms of fumarylacetoacetate hydrolase (FAH) in the progression of glioblastoma (GBM). MethodsDifferential expression analysis was performed on the TCGA-GBM, GSE4290, and GSE116520 datasets. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was used to identify key modules, and Cox regression and risk modeling were used to screen prognostic genes. Immune infiltration analysis of prognostic genes was carried out by using single-cell RNA sequencing panels. The clinical expression signature of FAH in GBM was analyzed in the TCGA and HPA databases. The functional role of FAH was validated by in vitro and in vivo experiments, and pathway analysis was performed to explore the underlying mechanisms. ResultsA total of 152 overlapping genes were identified across the three GBM datasets (P<0.05). WGCNA revealed that the turquoise module was most strongly associated with tumor purity, stromal score, immune score, and ESTIMATE score (P<0.001). Compared with normal tissues, three prognostic genes (CTSD, FAH, and THBD) were upregulated in GBM and correlated with immune infiltration (P<0.05). FAH mRNA and protein levels were elevated in GBM tissues relative to normal tissues, and its expression was significantly associated with age stratification and TP53 mutation (P<0.05). CCK-8 assay results showed that, compared with the shNC group, the proliferative activity of GBM cells in the shFAH group was reduced (P<0.001). Transwell migration and invasion assays demonstrated that, relative to the shNC group, the numbers of migrated and invaded cells in the shFAH group decreased (P<0.05). Western blot analysis revealed that the protein expression levels of PI3K, p-AKT, and p-mTOR in the shFAH group decreased compared with those in the shNC group (P<0.05). In vivo subcutaneous xenograft experiments further confirmed that tumor volume and weight significantly decreased in the shFAH group compared with the shNC group (P<0.001). ConclusionFAH promotes GBM progression by activating the PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling pathway and may serve as a potential therapeutic target for GBM.
5.A Comparative Study of Artificial Intelligence-based Classification Versus Manual Classification of Medical Adverse Events: Taking the DeepSeek Large Language Model As an Example
Rui WANG ; Xutong TAN ; Congpu ZHAO ; Shuchang WANG ; Zheng CHEN ; Xiaojun MA ; Zhiling CAI
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(3):828-833
To analyze the application value of artificial intelligence (AI)-based classification in the categorization of medical adverse events. Medical adverse events reported to the Adverse Event Reporting System of Peking Union Medical College Hospital from September 1, 2023, to August 31, 2024, were retrospectively collected as the study subjects. After de-identification of adverse events meeting the inclusion criteria, conventional manual classification and AI-based classification using a large language model (DeepSeek-R1 Full-Context Internet Edition) were performed. The time required for classification using both methods was recorded, and the consistency and discrepancies between the two methods were compared. Using manual classification as the gold standard, the accuracy of AI-based classification was comprehensively evaluated. A total of 273 medical adverse events were analyzed. Manual classification took 38 838 seconds in total, with an average of 14.22 seconds per event. AI-based classification took 600 seconds in total, with an average of 2.19 seconds per event. The two methods showed consistent classification in 202 events and inconsistent classification in 71 events, yielding an overall agreement rate of 73.99% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.646 (95% CI: 0.575-0.717), with a standard error of 0.0362. Using manual classification as the gold standard, AI-based classification achieved accuracy ranging from 80% to 100%, precision from 30% to 100%, recall from 40% to 100%, F1 scores from 0.46 to 0.79, and specificity from 46% to 98%. Notably, AI-based classification demonstrated balanced and overall excellent performance in the categorization of device-related and drug-related adverse events. The DeepSeek large language model can assist in improving the efficiency of medical adverse event classification, showing promising application potential, particularly in the categorization of device-related and drug-related adverse events.
6.A review of Chinese heart transplantation literature in 2025
Jiexu MA ; Zhao CHEN ; Jiade ZHU ; Min WU
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(4):563-573
Heart transplantation is the gold standard for the treatment of patients with end-stage heart failure. Nevertheless, postoperative rejection, ischemia-reperfusion injury, adverse reactions to immunosuppressive drugs and long-term allograft dysfunction remain the major challenges restricting the long-term survival of patients. In the past year, Chinese researchers have carried out a series of high-level studies and made important breakthroughs in key fields including risk stratification of patients with end-stage heart failure, innovations in donor heart preservation technology, novel therapeutic targets for the intervention of ischemia-reperfusion injury, nano-targeted immunosuppressive strategies, gene expression regulation of rejection, and monitoring by ultrasound molecular imaging. This article systematically reviews the academic achievements made by Chinese researchers in the field of heart transplantation in 2025, with a focus on sorting out mechanism innovations, technological breakthroughs and clinical translational applications, so as to provide references for clinical practice and future research directions in heart transplantation.
7.Clinical Effect of Xiaozhi Hugan Capsules in Treatment of Patients with Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis and Its Impact on Serum IL-6 and MCP-1
Xiaoyan LIU ; Suping MA ; Qingliang MA ; Chunxiao LI ; Lihui ZHANG ; Huaxin CHEN ; Wenxia ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(12):185-192
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical effect of Xiaozhi Hugan capsules in treating patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome and its effects on serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1). MethodsA total of 124 patients with NASH combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome who were admitted to the Department of Spleen, Stomach, and Hepatobiliary Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine from July 2020 to December 2022 were selected. According to the random number table method, patients were randomly divided into an observation group (62 cases) and a control group (62 cases). The treatment duration was 6 months. The observation group received Xiaozhi Hugan capsules orally, while the control group received polyene phosphatidylcholine capsules. The efficacy indicators included alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), liver stiffness measurement (LSM), traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome scores (discomfort/dull pain/distending pain in liver region, fatigue, etc.), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) [including fasting blood glucose (FBG) and fasting insulin level (INS)], free fatty acids (FFA), IL-6, and MCP-1. Adverse drug reactions were recorded. ResultsAfter treatment, the total effective rate in the observation group was 92.3% (48/52), while that in the control group was 75.5% (39/49). The total effective rate in the observation group was higher than that in the control group (χ2=5.339, P<0.05). After treatment, the TCM syndrome scores in both groups were significantly reduced (P<0.05), and the post-treatment scores in the observation group were better than those in the control group (P<0.05). After treatment, the levels of ALT, AST, TC, FFA, fasting insulin (FINS), HOMA-IR, MCP-1, IL-6, CAP, LSM, BMI, and WHtR were decreased (P<0.05) significantly in both groups, and the observation group showed superior improvement in the above indicators compared to the control group (P<0.05). The observation group exhibited significant reductions in TG and FBG (P<0.05) and an increase in HDL-C (P<0.05), while no significant changes were observed in the control group. The observation group was superior to the control group after treatment (P<0.05). No severe adverse reactions occurred in either group during the treatment. ConclusionXiaozhi Hugan capsules have significant clinical efficacy in treating patients with NASH combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome. It reduces hepatic steatosis, lowers liver stiffness, inhibits the expression of serum inflammatory factors, and alleviates liver inflammation. No obvious adverse reactions occur, suggesting it is suitable for clinical application.
8.Clinical Effect of Xiaozhi Hugan Capsules in Treatment of Patients with Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis and Its Impact on Serum IL-6 and MCP-1
Xiaoyan LIU ; Suping MA ; Qingliang MA ; Chunxiao LI ; Lihui ZHANG ; Huaxin CHEN ; Wenxia ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(12):185-192
ObjectiveTo observe the clinical effect of Xiaozhi Hugan capsules in treating patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome and its effects on serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1). MethodsA total of 124 patients with NASH combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome who were admitted to the Department of Spleen, Stomach, and Hepatobiliary Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine from July 2020 to December 2022 were selected. According to the random number table method, patients were randomly divided into an observation group (62 cases) and a control group (62 cases). The treatment duration was 6 months. The observation group received Xiaozhi Hugan capsules orally, while the control group received polyene phosphatidylcholine capsules. The efficacy indicators included alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), liver stiffness measurement (LSM), traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome scores (discomfort/dull pain/distending pain in liver region, fatigue, etc.), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) [including fasting blood glucose (FBG) and fasting insulin level (INS)], free fatty acids (FFA), IL-6, and MCP-1. Adverse drug reactions were recorded. ResultsAfter treatment, the total effective rate in the observation group was 92.3% (48/52), while that in the control group was 75.5% (39/49). The total effective rate in the observation group was higher than that in the control group (χ2=5.339, P<0.05). After treatment, the TCM syndrome scores in both groups were significantly reduced (P<0.05), and the post-treatment scores in the observation group were better than those in the control group (P<0.05). After treatment, the levels of ALT, AST, TC, FFA, fasting insulin (FINS), HOMA-IR, MCP-1, IL-6, CAP, LSM, BMI, and WHtR were decreased (P<0.05) significantly in both groups, and the observation group showed superior improvement in the above indicators compared to the control group (P<0.05). The observation group exhibited significant reductions in TG and FBG (P<0.05) and an increase in HDL-C (P<0.05), while no significant changes were observed in the control group. The observation group was superior to the control group after treatment (P<0.05). No severe adverse reactions occurred in either group during the treatment. ConclusionXiaozhi Hugan capsules have significant clinical efficacy in treating patients with NASH combined with phlegm-dampness and blood stasis syndrome. It reduces hepatic steatosis, lowers liver stiffness, inhibits the expression of serum inflammatory factors, and alleviates liver inflammation. No obvious adverse reactions occur, suggesting it is suitable for clinical application.
9.Association of habitual reading and writing postures with common diseases and comorbidities among children and adolescents in Ningxia
WEI Rong, LUO Haiyan, MA Ning, ZHAO Yu, YANG Yi, CHEN Yaogeng
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(5):723-727
Objective:
To investigate the association between habitual reading/writing postures and the co-occurrence of common health conditions (overweight/obesity, visual impairment, hypertension, and scoliosis) and comorbidities among children and adolescents, in order to provide data support for the joint prevention of common diseases and comorbidities among children and adolescents.
Methods:
From September 2021 to June 2022, a multi-stage cluster random sampling method was used to select a total of 4 577 children and adolescents from 16 primary and secondary schools in Ningxia: Jinfeng District of Yinchuan City, Shapotou District of Zhongwei City, Yanchi County of Wuzhong City, and Pingluo County of Shizuishan City. A weighted complex sampling design was used to investigate the association of habitual reading and writing postures with common comorbidities in children and adolescents.
Results:
The prevalence rates of common diseases among children and adolescents in Ningxia were as follows: overweight/obesity was 22.87%, visual impairment was 62.52%, scoliosis was 2.30%, and hypertension was 1.30%. The prevalence of multimorbidity (co-occurrence of ≥2 conditions) among Ningxia children and adolescents was 15.95%. Multivariate unconditional Logistic regression analysis showed that frequent/always collapsing waist and sitting forward with head lowered increased the risk of common comorbidities in children and adolescents ( OR =1.90, P <0.05). Compared with the corresponding reference group, male children and adolescents aged 9 to 12 years and boys had relatively lower risks of overweight/obesity ( OR =0.71, 0.70); the risk of poor vision among children and adolescents aged 9 to 12 years, male, and urban was relatively low ( OR =0.59, 0.60, 0.73)( P < 0.05 ). Children and adolescents who often/always sat leaning to the left or right were at higher risk of poor vision ( OR =1.78); urban children and adolescents had a higher risk of developing scoliosis ( OR =3.71); children and adolescents aged 9 to 12 had a relatively low risk of developing hypertension ( OR =0.09), and children and adolescents who often/always bent their backs and sat forward on their knees had a higher risk of hypertension ( OR =5.03)( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Ningxia has a high incidence of common diseases and multiple diseases among children and adolescents, frequent or always collapsing waist and sitting forward with head lowered is associated with common comorbidities in children and adolescents in Ningxia. Proper postural measures for reading and writing should be carried out as soon as possible to encourage children and adolescents to develop good reading and writing habits for effectively preventing and controlling the occurrence of common diseases.
10.Validating Multicenter Cohort Circular RNA Model for Early Screening and Diagnosis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus
Shuo MA ; Yaya CHEN ; Zhexi GU ; Jiwei WANG ; Fengfeng ZHAO ; Yuming YAO ; Gulinaizhaer ABUDUSHALAMU ; Shijie CAI ; Xiaobo FAN ; Miao MIAO ; Xun GAO ; Chen ZHANG ; Guoqiu WU
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(3):462-474
Background:
Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a metabolic disorder posing significant risks to maternal and infant health, with a lack of effective early screening markers. Therefore, identifying early screening biomarkers for GDM with higher sensitivity and specificity is urgently needed.
Methods:
High-throughput sequencing was employed to screen for key circular RNAs (circRNAs), which were then evaluated using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between clinical characteristics, circRNA expression, and adverse pregnancy outcomes. The diagnostic accuracy of circRNAs for early and mid-pregnancy GDM was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Pearson correlation analysis was utilized to explore the relationship between circRNA levels and oral glucose tolerance test results. A predictive model for early GDM was established using logistic regression.
Results:
Significant alterations in circRNA expression profiles were detected in GDM patients, with hsa_circ_0031560 and hsa_ circ_0000793 notably upregulated during the first and second trimesters. These circRNAs were associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and effectively differentiated GDM patients, with second trimester cohorts achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.836. In first trimester cohorts, these circRNAs identified potential GDM patients with AUCs of 0.832 and 0.765, respectively. The early GDM prediction model achieved an AUC of 0.904, validated in two independent cohorts.
Conclusion
Hsa_circ_0031560, hsa_circ_0000793, and the developed model serve as biomarkers for early prediction or midterm diagnosis of GDM, offering clinical tools for early GDM screening.


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