1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Research advances and challenges in antimicrobial resistance surveillance technologies
Feng LIU ; Caixia DANG ; Ziqian ZHAO ; Yang WANG ; Yuanyong XU ; Hui CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(3):128-132
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a critical global health threat. This review systematically examines AMR surveillance technology advances, from conventional culture methods to modern molecular diagnostics (e.g., whole-genome sequencing) and artificial intelligence-assisted approaches. It focuses on the current application of mass spectrometry, machine learning predictive models, and real-time surveillance networks. To address challenges including inadequate technical standardization, clinical translation barriers, and data-sharing limitations, we propose integrated "genotype-phenotype" strategies and global standardization framework, while exploring future applications of CRISPR-based portable detection, single-cell sequencing, and blockchain technologies.
3.Expert consensus on the clinical application of domestic ultra-high-definition medical endoscopes in cardiovascular surgery (2026 edition)
Junfei ZHAO ; Biaochuan HE ; Yun TENG ; Xiaohua LI ; Zerui CHEN ; Chungeng LIU ; Yijiu REN ; Chang CHEN ; Nianguo DONG ; Jimei CHEN
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(06):857-865
This consensus focuses on the clinical application of domestic ultra-high-definition (UHD) medical endoscopes in cardiovascular surgery, addressing their clinical value, key technical aspects, and strategies for broader implementation. It traces the evolution of domestic endoscopic platforms from high-resolution imaging toward integrated advanced functionalities such as fluorescence imaging, three-dimensional visualization, and intelligent assistance. The document outlines standardized procedural steps and perioperative management pathways for minimally invasive endoscopic cardiovascular surgery and summarizes specific application scenarios and technical considerations in congenital heart disease, valvular disorders, coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, and cardiac tumors. Furthermore, recommendations are provided regarding professional training, multicenter collaboration, the establishment of clinical evaluation systems, and coordinated policy-industry support to promote standardized adoption and high-quality dissemination of domestic medical devices. Based on available evidence and expert agreement, 16 consensus statements are presented, aiming to offer authoritative and actionable guidance for clinical practice.
4.Epidemiological characteristics and prevention strategies of gouty arthritis in Northwest China in 2023-2025
Ling FU ; Ning CUI ; Peijie XIA ; Nan ZHAO ; Aiqing PAN ; Xiaomin RAN ; Fei CHEN ; Kaiyue CAO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(4):56-60
Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of gouty arthritis in Northwest China from 2023 to 2025, and to formulate preventive intervention measures. Methods By retrospectively analyzing the case data of medical institutions in Northwest China from January 2023 to June 2025 (a total of 8 139 cases), the incidence trend and population distribution characteristics of gouty arthritis in this area were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors. Results From 2023 to 2025, the prevalence rate of gouty arthritis in adult residents in Northwest China was 3.74% (304/8 139). Among the sites affected by gouty arthritis, the metatarsophalangeal joint accounted for the highest proportion (P<0.05). From the perspective of age distribution, the prevalence rate was the highest in 40-59 years old group (5.90%), followed by 66-80 years old group (4.21%) and >80 years old group (2.75%). The incidence rate in 40-65 years old group was higher than that in the other age groups (P<0.05). High blood uric acid and creatinine, alcohol drinking, obesity, high purine diet, concurrent chronic kidney disease and metabolic syndrome were risk factors affecting gouty arthritis in Northwest China (P<0.05). Conclusion High blood uric acid level, high creatinine level, alcohol drinking, obesity, high purine diet, concurrent chronic kidney disease and metabolic syndrome are risk factors influencing gouty arthritis in Northwest China. Based on the above factors, this study proposes comprehensive prevention strategies from the individual, community and public health levels to provide a scientific basis for reducing the incidence rate of gouty arthritis.
5.Principles, technical specifications, and clinical application of lung watershed topography map 2.0: A thoracic surgery expert consensus (2024 version)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Wei JIANG ; Deping ZHAO ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Lijie TAN ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Qiang NIE ; Mingqiang KANG ; Weibing WU ; Hao ZHANG ; Zhigang LI ; Zihao CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(02):141-152
With the widespread adoption of low-dose CT screening and the extensive application of high-resolution CT, the detection rate of sub-centimeter lung nodules has significantly increased. How to scientifically manage these nodules while avoiding overtreatment and diagnostic delays has become an important clinical issue. Among them, lung nodules with a consolidation tumor ratio less than 0.25, dominated by ground-glass shadows, are particularly worthy of attention. The therapeutic challenge for this group is how to achieve precise and complete resection of nodules during surgery while maximizing the preservation of the patient39;s lung function. The "watershed topography map" is a new technology based on big data and artificial intelligence algorithms. This method uses Dicom data from conventional dose CT scans, combined with microscopic (22-24 levels) capillary network anatomical watershed features, to generate high-precision simulated natural segmentation planes of lung sub-segments through specific textures and forms. This technology forms fluorescent watershed boundaries on the lung surface, which highly fit the actual lung anatomical structure. By analyzing the adjacent relationship between the nodule and the watershed boundary, real-time, visually accurate positioning of the nodule can be achieved. This innovative technology provides a new solution for the intraoperative positioning and resection of lung nodules. This consensus was led by four major domestic societies, jointly with expert teams in related fields, oriented to clinical practical needs, referring to domestic and foreign guidelines and consensus, and finally formed after multiple rounds of consultation, discussion, and voting. The main content covers the theoretical basis of the "watershed topography map" technology, indications, operation procedures, surgical planning details, and postoperative evaluation standards, aiming to provide scientific guidance and exploration directions for clinical peers who are currently or plan to carry out lung nodule resection using the fluorescent microscope watershed analysis method.
6.Efficacy and safety of PEG-rhG-CSF combined with sintilimab and chemotherapy in the treatment of advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer
ZHAO Tong1 ; LIU Jianyong2 ; ZHU Tingting1 ; CHEN Lei1 ; ZHANG Weike1
Chinese Journal of Cancer Biotherapy 2025;32(12):1271-1279
[摘 要] 目的:观察聚乙二醇化重组人粒细胞集落刺激因子(PEG-rhG-CSF)联合信迪利单抗和含铂双药化疗对晚期非鳞非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)的疗效及安全性。方法: 选取2020年1月至2021年12月在济南市第八人民医院肿瘤科收治的187例Ⅳ期NSCLC患者为对象行前瞻性随机对照研究,用随机数字表法将患者分为试验组(PEG-rhG-CSF + 信迪利单抗 + 培美曲塞 + 铂类)94例,对照组(信迪利单抗 + 培美曲塞 + 铂类)93例。随访2年,对比两组患者近期临床疗效、无进展生存期(PFS)、总生存期(OS)和治疗期间不良反应。结果: 试验组客观缓解率(ORR)高于对照组[61.63%(53/86) vs 45.35%(39/86),χ2 = 4.554,P = 0.032 8]。两组的疾病控制率(DCR)差异无统计学意义[87.21%(75/86) vs 81.40%(70/86),χ2 = 1.092,P = 0.079 1]。试验组中位PFS明显优于对照组[10.6个月 vs 9.1个月;HR = 0.72,95% CI(0.51,0.99);χ2 = 3.8998,P = 0.048 3]。试验组的中位OS明显优于对照组[未达到 vs 22.6个月;HR = 0.63,95%CI(0.42,0.95);χ2 = 4.7716,P = 0.028 9]。预设亚组包括:年龄 < 65岁(是或否)、性别、吸烟史(有或无)、PD-L1 TPS ≥ 1%(是或否)、铂类药物(顺铂或卡铂)、ECOG评分(0分或1分)均观察到一致的试验组OS获益趋势(HR均 < 1)。试验组中性粒细胞减少发生率低于对照组(P < 0.000 1),发热发生率高于对照组(P = 0.045 1)。两组恶心、贫血、劳累、便秘、腹泻、食欲下降、呕吐、咳嗽、呼吸困难、外周水肿、肌肉酸痛、皮疹、血小板减少、甲状腺功能减退、免疫性肺炎、免疫性肠炎不良反应发生率比较,差异均无统计学意义(均P > 0.05)。结论: 晚期非鳞NSCLC患者采用PEG-rhG-CSF联合信迪利单抗 + 培美曲塞 + 铂类可能提高近期临床疗效和远期生存,降低中性粒细胞减少发生率,安全性可控。
7.Interpretation of the key points of "Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries"
Peiyu WANG ; Qi HUANG ; Shaodong WANG ; Xiankai CHEN ; Ruixiang ZHANG ; Jia ZHAO ; Mantang QIU ; Yin LI ; Xiangnan LI
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2024;31(07):933-954
"Global cancer statistics 2022" based on the latest GLOBCAN data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) was recently released, providing a systematic analysis of the incidence and mortality of 36 types of cancer across 185 countries worldwide. The international burden of cancer is expected to continue to increase over the next 30 years, posing a severe public health and social challenge for many countries, including China. This article offers a key point interpretation of the "Global cancer statistics 2022", focusing on the evolution of cancer epidemiology and future development trends. The aim is to broaden the international perspective on cancer prevention and treatment, with the hope of providing reference and guidance for cancer prevention and treatment efforts in our country.
8.Study on Rapid Detection Methods of Acid Yellow 36 in Moxibustion
Peijing ZHAO ; Lin CHEN ; Ying SONG ; Zhong' ; e LI ; Han HUANG
Chinese Journal of Modern Applied Pharmacy 2024;41(11):1524-1528
OBJECTIVE
To establish a rapid method for determining of acid yellow 36 in moxibustion.
METHODS
Based on the principle of acid yellow 36 as an acid-base indicator and discoloration in the pH range of 1.2(red) to 2.3(yellow), 15% sulfuric acid solution was used as the color developing agent to screen the ethanol extract of the sample, and then HPLC method was used to verify the suspicious positive samples in the initial screening, and finally LC-MS method was used to confirm the accuracy of the established rapid physicochemical detection method.
RESULTS
The established method was applied to 67 batches of samples, and 3 positive samples were detected. The results were consistent with those of HPLC and LC-MS.
CONCLUSION
The method is accurate and sensitive, which can be used for rapid detection of acid yellow 36 in moxibustion.
9.Factors affecting hospitalization costs among stroke patients in Nanshan District
ZOU Quan ; ZHAO Xinxing ; CHEN Hong' ; en ; WU Lanlan ; LIANG Xiaofeng ; WU Jing ; WANG Changyi
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2024;36(4):328-332,337
Objective:
To analyze the influencing factors for hospitalization costs among stroke patients with different subtypes, so as to provide the reference for reducing the economic burden of patients.
Methods:
Data of patients with hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke who were discharged from hospitals in Nanshan District, Shenzhen City from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were collected through Hospital Information System. Hospitalization costs were analyzed between hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients, and factors affecting hospitalization costs among stroke patients with different subtypes were identified using a structural equation model.
Results:
A total of 10 298 patients with stroke were recruited, including 2 820 patients with hemorrhagic stroke (27.38%) and 7 478 patients with ischemic stroke (72.62%). The patients with hemorrhagic stroke had a median duration of hospital stay of 19.00 (interquartile range, 18.00) d, and a median hospitalization cost of 26 759.48 (interquartile range, 51 000.87) Yuan. The patients with ischemic stroke had a median duration of hospital stay of 12.00 (interquartile range, 10.00) d, and a median hospitalization cost of 12 199.87 (interquartile range, 13 290.20) Yuan. Structural equation model analysis showed that department of hospitalization, discharge status, ways of leaving hospital, surgery and hypertension had direct effects on hospitalization costs and indirect effects on hospitalization costs through duration of hospital stay among hemorrhagic stroke patients, and duration of hospital stay had the highest total effect (0.684), followed by surgery (0.632). Employment status, admission route, department of hospitalization, ways of leaving hospital, payment mode, surgery and dyslipidemia had direct effects on hospitalization costs and indirect effects on hospitalization costs through duration of hospital stay among ischemic stroke patients, and duration of hospital stay (0.746), surgery (0.424) and department of hospitalization (0.151) ranked the top three in total effects.
Conclusion
The hospitalization cost is relatively high among stroke patients in Nanshan District, and duration of hospital stay and surgery have great influence on hospitalization costs among stroke patients with different subtypes.
10.Prognostic value of the preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Mengqi CHEN ; Kemeng LIU ; Huaqin ZHAO ; Xia HE
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2023;30(03):440-446
Objective To explore the association between the preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and prognosis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods A comprehensive literature survey was performed on PubMed, Web of Science, EMbase, The Cochrane Library, Wanfang, and CNKI databases to search the related studies from inception to December 2021. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were combined to evaluate the correlation of the preoperative SII with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in NSCLC patients. Results A total of 11 studies involving 9 180 patients were eventually included. The combined analysis showed that high SII levels were significantly associated with worse OS (HR=1.61, 95%CI 1.36-1.90, P<0.001), DFS (HR=1.50, 95%CI 1.34-1.68, P<0.001), and RFS (HR=1.17, 95%CI 1.04-1.33, P<0.001). Subgroup analyses also further verified the above results. Conclusion Preoperative SII is a powerful prognostic biomarker for predicting outcome in patients with operable NSCLC and contribute to prognosis evaluation and treatment strategy formulation. However, more well-designed and prospective studies are warranted to verify our findings.


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