1.Construction and validation of a novel prognostic risk scoring table for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure
Zhanhu BI ; Haifeng HU ; Hong DU ; Linxu WANG ; Xiaofei YANG ; Yidi DING ; Jianqi LIAN
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2025;41(10):2102-2109
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical features of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and to construct a risk scoring table that can accurately predict the prognosis of patients in the early stage. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 502 patients with ACLF who were admitted to Tangdu Hospital, Air Force Medical University, from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020 (training set), and the influencing factors for 28-day mortality rate were identified. The 69 ACLF patients who were admitted to Tangdu Hospital, Air Force Medical University, from January 1 to December 31, 2021 were enrolled as the validation set. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups, and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A univariate Cox regression analysis was used to obtain the early warning indicators associated with the 28-day prognosis of ACLF patients, and variance inflation factors were used to assess multicollinearity among predictors; a multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct a risk model for ACLF prognosis (mortality). A risk scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) was developed based on regression coefficients (β) from the model equation and weight assignments in the nomogram. Internal validation and comparison were performed for the risk model for ACLF prognosis (mortality), the scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality), and other scoring models (Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD] score, MELD combined with serum sodium concentration [MELD-Na] score, and integrated MELD [iMELD] score) in the training set, while external validation and comprehensive evaluation of the scoring table and the other scoring models were performed in the validation set. The Nagelkerke’s R2 test and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess the degree of fitting of the risk model for ACLF prognosis (mortality), the scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality), and other scoring models, and fitting curves were plotted. C-index was used to assess the discriminatory ability of the scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) and the other scoring models, and the Z-test was used for comparison of C-index between different models. The decision curve analysis was used to compare the clinical benefits of the scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) and the other scoring models. ResultsThe multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.027, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.015 — 1.039, P<0.001), hepatic encephalopathy grade (grade 1: HR=2.928, 95%CI: 1.463 — 5.858, P=0.002; grade 2: HR=3.811, 95%CI: 2.078 — 6.988, P<0.001; grade 3: HR=3.916, 95%CI: 1.917 — 8.001, P<0.001; grade 4: HR=6.966, 95%CI: 4.559 — 10.644, P<0.001), an increase in total bilirubin (TBil) by ≥17.1 μmol/L per day (HR=1.771, 95%CI: 1.248 — 2.513, P=0.001), creatinine (HR=1.005, 95%CI: 1.004 — 1.006, P<0.001), neutrophil count (HR=1.092, 95%CI: 1.060 — 1.126, P<0.001), and international normalized ratio (HR=1.298, 95%CI: 1.187 — 1.418, P<0.001) were independent risk factors associated with the 28-day mortality rate of ACLF patients, and a risk scoring table was constructed for ACLF prognosis (mortality). The Nagelkerke’s R2 test showed that the risk scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) had an R2 value of 0.599 in the training set and 0.722 in the validation set, which were higher than the R2 values of CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, and iMELD scores. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the risk scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) had a P value of 0.280 in the training set and 0.788 in the validation set. The C-index analysis showed that the scoring table had a higher C-index than the other scoring models in the validation set (all P<0.001), as well as a higher C-index than CTP score in the training set (P<0.001). The decision curve analysis showed that the risk scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) had higher clinical net benefits than the other scoring models. ConclusionCompared with other scoring models currently used in clinical practice, the novel risk scoring table for ACLF prognosis (mortality) constructed based on the six predictive factors of age, hepatic encephalopathy grade, an increase in TBil by ≥17.1 μmol/L per day, creatinine, neutrophil count, and international normalized ratio has a relatively high value in predicting the 28-day prognosis of ACLF patients.
2.Clinical features and early warning indicators of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and bacterial infection
Zhanhu BI ; Linxu WANG ; Haifeng HU ; Hong DU ; Yidi DING ; Xiaofei YANG ; Jiayi ZHAN ; Fei HU ; Denghui YU ; Hongkai XU ; Jianqi LIAN
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2024;40(4):760-766
ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical features of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and bacterial infection and early warning indicators associated with multidrug-resistant infections. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 130 patients with ACLF and bacterial infection who attended The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2021, and according to the drug susceptibility results, the patients were divided into multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infection group with 80 patients and non-MDR bacterial infection group with 50 patients. General information and laboratory examination results were compared between the two groups to screen for the early warning indicators associated with MDR bacterial infection. The Student’s t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data with homogeneity of variance between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data or continuous data with heterogeneity of variance between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The binary logistic regression analysis and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the predictive value of early warning indicators. ResultsAmong the 130 patients with ACLF and bacterial infection, sputum (27.7%) was the most common specimen for detection, followed by blood (24.6%), urine (18.5%), and ascites (17.7%). Bacterial infections were dominated by Gram-negative bacteria (58.5%). Of all bacteria, Escherichia coli (18.5%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (14.6%), and Enterococcus faecium (13.8%) were the most common pathogens. Gram-positive bacteria had a high resistance rate to the antibacterial drugs such as erythromycin (72.2%), penicillin (57.4%), ampicillin (55.6%), and ciprofloxacin (53.7%), while Gram-negative bacteria had a high resistance rate to the antibacterial drugs such as ampicillin (73.3%), cefazolin (50.0%), and cefepime (47.4%). The patients with ACLF and bacterial infection had a relatively high rate of MDR bacterial infection (61.5%). Comparison of clinical data between the two groups showed that compared with the patients with non-MDR bacterial infection, the patients with MDR bacterial infection had significantly higher levels of alanine aminotransferase (Z=2.089, P=0.037), aspartate aminotransferase (Z=2.063, P=0.039), white blood cell count (Z=2.207, P=0.027), and monocyte count (Z=4.413, P<0.001). The binary logistic regression analysis showed that monocyte count was an independent risk factor for MDR bacterial infection (odds ratio=7.120, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.478 — 20.456,P<0.001) and had an area under the ROC curve of 0.686 (95%CI: 0.597 — 0.776) in predicting ACLF with MDR bacterial infection(P<0.001), with the optimal cut-off value of 0.50×109/L, a sensitivity of 0.725, and a specificity of 0.400. ConclusionACLF combined with bacterial infections is mainly caused by Gram-negative bacteria, with the common pathogens of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae and a relatively high MDR rate in clinical practice. An increase in monocyte count can be used as an early warning indicator to distinguish MDR bacterial infection from non-MDR bacterial infection.
3.Clinical epidemiological characteristics and prognostic risk factors in 2 245 patients with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Haifeng HU ; Jiayi ZHAN ; Hong DU ; Yali YANG ; Fei HU ; Jiayu LI ; Zhanhu BI ; Xiaofei YANG ; Yan LIANG ; Jianqi LIAN
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2023;41(1):70-76
Objective:To analyze the clinical epidemiological characteristics and the prognostic risk factors of patients with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS).Methods:A total of 2 245 HFRS patients who were admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from September 2008 to December 2021 were enrolled. Clinical epidemiological data (including gender, age, onset season, onset region, case fatality rate, et al) of HFRS patients were analyzed. The clinical epidemiological characteristics of patients with HFRS in the 2008 to 2012, 2013 to 2017, and 2018 to 2021 groups were compared. Statistical comparisons were performed using chi-square test. The Bonferroni adjusted P-value method was used for pairwise comparisons between groups, and logistic regression analysis was used to screen and evaluate the risk factors associated with the prognosis of HFRS patients. Results:The age of 2 245 HFRS patients was (42.3±15.9) years old. Most of them were male (79.24%(1 779/2 245)), and the main incidence area was Xi′an City (69.53%(1 561/2 245)). There were 132 deaths with an overall case fatality rate of 5.88%. There were 1 088 patients (48.46%) from 2008 to 2012, 647 patients (28.82%) from 2013 to 2017, and 510 patients (22.72%) from 2018 to 2021, with a mortality rate of 7.17%(78/1 088), 5.10%(33/647) and 4.12%(21/510), respectively. From 2008 to 2021, both the number of HFRS cases and the case fatality rate had shown a fluctuating downward trend. There were significant differences in case fatality rate, age distribution, onset season, and onset region among patients in the different year groups ( χ2=6.84, 49.22, 83.47 and 19.29, respectively, all P<0.05). The results of pairwise comparisons showed that the proportion of patients aged >60 years in the 2018 to 2021 group (23.33%(119/510)) was higher than those in the 2008 to 2012 group (12.13%(132/1 088)) and the 2013 to 2017 group (12.36%(80/647)), and the differences were statistically significant (both P<0.05). The proportions of patients at large peak (October to December) were 62.35%(318/510) in the 2018 to 2021 group and 56.26%(364/647) in the 2013 to 2017 group, which were both lower than that in the 2008 to 2012 group (75.18%(818/1 088)), and the differences were both statistically significant (both P<0.05). The case fatality rate of patients aged >60 years was 9.67%(32/331), which was higher than those of patients aged <30 years (2.86%(16/559)) and patients aged 30 to 60 years (6.20%(84/1 355)), with statistically significant differences (both P<0.05). Univariate analysis showed that age 30 to 60 years, age >60 years, smoking, complicated with hypertension, hypotensive shock and hypoxemia were significantly correlated with the prognosis of HFRS patients (odds ratio ( OR)=2.243, 3.632, 1.484, 3.532, 79.422 and 143.955, respectively, all P<0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that complicated with hypertension ( OR=2.467, P=0.004), hypotensive shock ( OR=11.658, P=0.001), and hypoxemia ( OR=67.767, P<0.001) were the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of HFRS patients. Conclusions:The prevalence of HFRS has shown new changing characteristics from 2008 to 2021. The numbers of HFRS patients and the case fatality rates show a downward trend, and the proportion of HFRS patients aged >60 years increases. Complicated with hypertension, hypotensive shock and development with hypoxemia are the independent risk factors for the prognosis of HFRS.
4.Mechanism of gamma-chain cytokines in regulating the expression of T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain-containing molecule 3 in CD8+ T cells of chronic hepatitis B patients
Xiaofei YANG ; Linxu WANG ; Changxing HUANG ; Jie DONG ; Haifeng HU ; Zhanhu BI ; Jianqi LIAN ; Ye ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2021;37(5):1059-1064.
ObjectiveTo investigate the mechanism of gamma-chain (γC) cytokines in regulating the expression of T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain-containing molecule 3 (TIM-3) in CD8+ T cells of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. MethodsA total of 23 CHB patients who attended Tangdu Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, from January to May, 2017, were enrolled. Peripheral blood was collected from all patients, and Ficoll density gradient centrifugation was used to isolate peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). PBMCs were stimulated with interleukin-7 (IL-7), interleukin-15 (IL-15), and interleukin-21, respectively, and then anti-γC antibody and/or anti-IL-7Rα, anti-IL-2Rβ, and anti-IL-21R were added to the culture solution. After 96 hours of culture, flow cytometry was used to measure the expression of TIM-3, interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and interferon-γ (IFNγ) and the phosphorylation level of signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) in CD8+ T cells. A one-way analysis of variance and the least significant difference t-test were used for comparison of continuous data. ResultsThe CD8+ T cells stimulated by IL-7 and IL-15 had a significantly higher percentage of TIM-3-positive CD8+ T cells than those without stimulation (t=9.966 and 9074, P<0.05), as well as significantly higher expression levels of IL-2, IL-10, and IFN-γ and phosphorylation levels of STAT-5 and STAT-1 (all P<0.05). Stimulation with anti-IL-7Rα and anti-γC antibody significantly reduced the elevated expression levels of TIM-3, IL-2, and IL-10 in the IL-7 stimulation group (t=5.537, 6.224, and 4.500, P<0.05). Stimulation with anti-IL-2Rβ alone or in combination with anti-γC antibody significantly reduced the expression levels of TIM-3 and IL-2 and the phosphorylation level of STAT-1 in the IL-15 stimulation group (P <0.05). ConclusionIL-7 and IL-15 can upregulate the expression of TIM-3 in CD8+ T cells of CHB patients, possibly via the γC receptor-mediated STAT-cytokine signaling pathway.

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