1.Analysis on Dynamic Change of Stir-fried Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma Quality Based on "Exterior-interior Correlation"
Yue XU ; Zhe JIA ; Yun WANG ; Bing LI ; Deling WU ; Cun ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(5):194-202
ObjectiveIn order to provide a reference for the optimization of preparation process of stir-fried Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma(sf-GRR), the quality changes during the processing was studied. MethodsGlycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma was processed by stir-frying for 17 min, and samples were collected every 1 min during the processing. The appearance color of the samples was determined by visual analysis technology, the moisture and extract of the process samples were detected by the drying method and the hot extraction method of alcohol-soluble extract in the general rules of the 2020 edition of Chinese Pharmacopoeia(part Ⅳ), and the contents of liquiritin apioside, liquiritin, isoliquiritin apioside, isoliquiritin, licoricesaponin G2 and glycyrrhizic acid in the process samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography(HPLC). Then principal component analysis(PCA), partial least squares-discriminant analysis(PLS-DA) and Spearman correlation analysis were used for clustering, discrimination and correlation analysis of the appearance color, moisture, extract and the contents of six internal components. Based on artificial neural network and random forest algorithm, the prediction model of processing degree of sf-GRR was established. On this basis, based on the five principles of quality marker(Q-Maker), explore the monitoring Q-Maker of sf-GRR. ResultsThe color of Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma deepened after stir-frying, and the appearance color of the sample changed from light yellow to dark yellow during processing. During the stir-frying process, the moisture content showed a decreasing trend with the extension of processing time, while the extract content showed an increasing trend with the extension of processing time. After stir-frying, the contents of liquiritin apioside, liquiritin and licoricesaponin G2 showed an overall decreasing trend, while the contents of isoliquiritin apioside and isoliquiritin increased, and the content of glycyrrhizic acid increased slightly. The correlation analysis showed that moisture was positively correlated with brightness(L*) and red/green value(a*), and negatively correlated with yellow/blue value(b*) and total color difference(E*ab). Isoliquiritin apioside and isoliquiritin had negative correlation with L* and a*, and positive correlation with b* and E*ab. The processing process of sf-GRR could be divided into two stages of the early stage(0-14 min) and the late stage(15-17 min), and could be divided into three stages of the early stage(0-6 min), the middle stage(7-14 min) and the late stage(15-17 min) by combining the moisture, extract, the contents of 6 components and color values. Based on artificial neural network analysis and random forest algorithm, isoliquiritin apioside, isoliquiritin, liquiritin and glycyrrhizic acid were selected as monitoring markers for sf-GRR. ConclusionBased on the analysis of the exterior-interior indicators of process samples of sf-GRR, this paper ultimately identifies four processing monitoring markers, which can provide a basis for optimizing the processing technology of sf-GRR.
2.Finite element analysis of three internal fixation modalities for treatment of Pauwels type Ⅲ femoral neck fractures under different loading conditions
Zhenggang LI ; Xuehong SHANG ; Zhang WU ; Hong LI ; Chaojun SUN ; Huadong CHEN ; Zhe SUN ; Yi YANG
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(3):455-463
BACKGROUND:There is still no consensus on the optimal internal fixation for the treatment of Pauwels Ⅲ femoral neck fracture,and most of the related finite element analyses have been performed using a single simplified loading condition,and the biomechanical properties of commonly used internal fixation devices need to be further investigated. OBJECTIVE:To analyze the biomechanical characteristics of Pauwels Ⅲ femoral neck fractures treated with cannulated compression screw,dynamic hip screw,and femoral neck system by finite element method under different loading conditions of single-leg standing loads and sideways fall loads. METHODS:The DICOM data of healthy adult femur were obtained by CT scanning,imported into Mimics 15.0 software to obtain the rough model of bone tissue.The data exported from Mimics were optimized by Geomagics software,and then three internal fixation models were built and assembled with the femur model according to the parameters of the clinical application of the cannulated compression screw,dynamic hip screw,and femoral neck system by using Pro/E software.Finally,the three internal fixation models were imported into Ansys software for loading and calculation to analyze the stress distribution and displacement of the femur and the internal fixation under different working conditions of single-leg standing loads and sideways fall loads,as well as the stress characteristics of the calcar femorale and Ward's triangle. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Under the single-leg standing load and the sideways fall load,the proximal femoral stress of the three internal fixation models was mainly distributed above the fracture end of the femoral neck.The peak stress of the proximal femoral end,fracture end,Ward triangle,and calcar femorale of the three internal fixation models were the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(2)Under the single-leg standing load and the sideways fall load,the peak displacement of the proximal femur of the three internal fixation models was all located at the top of the femoral head,and the peak displacement was the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(3)The peak displacement of the three internal fixation models was all located at the top of the internal fixation device under the single-leg standing and sideways fall loading conditions,and the peak displacement values were the smallest in the femoral neck system internal fixation model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw internal fixation model.(4)The internal fixation stress of the three internal fixation models was mainly distributed in the area near the fracture end of the internal fixation device under the single-leg standing and sideways fall loads,and the peak value of internal fixation stress was the smallest in the femoral neck system model and the largest in the cannulated compression screw model.(5)These results suggest that the mechanical stability of the femoral neck system is the best,but there may be a risk of stress shielding of the fracture end and calcar femorale.The stress of the internal fixation device of the femoral neck system is more dispersed,and the risk of internal fixation break is lower.
3.Modulation of colonic DNA methyltransferase by mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture in ulcerative colitis TET2 knockout mice
Gege FENG ; Yue ZHANG ; Huangan WU ; Lu ZHU ; Hongxiao XU ; Zhe MA ; Yan HUANG
Digital Chinese Medicine 2025;8(1):100-110
Objective:
To investigate the mechanism of in alleviating colonic mucosal inflammation in ten-eleven translocation (TET) protein 2 gene knockout (TET2-/-) mice with ulcerative colitis (UC) by regulating DNA methyltransferase (DNMT) and DNA hydroxymethylase.
Methods:
Male specific pathogen-free (SPF) grade C57BL/6J wild-type (WT) mice (n = 8) and TET2-/- mice (n = 20) were used to establish UC models by freely drinking 3% dextran sulfate sodium solution for 7 d. After UC model validation through histopathological examination in two mice from each type, the remaining mice were divided into four groups (n = 6 in each group): WT model (WT + UC), TET2-/- model (TET2-/- + UC), TET2-/- mild moxibustion (TET2-/- + MM), and TET2-/- electroacupuncture (TET2-/- + EA) groups. TET2-/- + MM group received mild moxibustion on Tianshu (ST25) and Qihai (CV6) for 10 min daily for 7 d. The TET2-/- + EA group also applied electroacupuncture (1 mA, 2/100 Hz) at the same acupoints for 10 min daily for 7 d. The disease activity index (DAI) scores of each group of mice were accessed daily. The colon lengths of mice in groups were measured following intervention. The pathological changes in the colon tissues were observed with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. The concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, C-C motif chemokine 17 (CCL17), and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) in serum were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The expression of DNMT proteins (DNMT1, DNMT3A, and DNMT3B) in the colon tissues was detected by immunohistochemistry. The expression of 5-methylcytosine (5-mC), 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC), histone deacetylase 2 (HDAC2), and DNA hydroxymethylase family proteins (TET 1 and TET3) was detected using immunofluorescence, which also determined the co-localization of TET1 and IL-6 protein.
Results:
Compared with WT + UC group, TET2-/- + UC group exhibited significantly higher DAI scores and shorter colon lengths (P < 0.01). Both mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture significantly decreased DAI scores and ameliorated colon shortening in TET2-/- mice (P < 0.001). Histopathological scores of TET2-/- + UC mice were significantly higher than those of WT + UC group (P < 0.001) and were significantly reduced after both mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture interventions (P < 0.001). Serum levels of IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 were significantly elevated in TET2-/- + UC group compared with WT + UC group (P < 0.001). Mild moxibustion significantly reduced IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 levels (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.01, respectively), while electroacupuncture also significantly reduced IL-6, CCL17, and CXCL10 levels (P < 0.05, P < 0.01, and P < 0.01, respectively). TET2-/- + UC mice showed increased expression levels of DNMT1, DNMT3A , DNMT3B, and 5-mC (P < 0.05, P < 0.01 and P < 0.001, respectively), with decreased expression levels of TET1, TET3, 5-hmC, and HDAC2 (P < 0.001). Mild moxibustion significantly reduced DNMT1, DNMT3B, and 5-mC levels (P < 0.05, P < 0.01, and P < 0.001, respectively), while increasing expression levels of TET1, TET3, 5-hmC, and HDAC2 (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P < 0.05, and P < 0.001, respectively). Electroacupuncture significantly decreased 5-mC and DNMT3B levels (P < 0.001 and P < 0.01, respectively) and increased 5-hmC and HDAC2 levels (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001, respectively), but did not significantly affect TET1 and TET3 expression (P > 0.05). Compared with TET2-/- + MM group, TET2-/- + EA group showed significantly higher 5-mC expression (P < 0.001). TET2-/- + UC group exhibited markedly increased IL-6 expression and higher co-localization of TET1 and IL-6 in mucosal epithelium, whereas minimal IL-6 expression was observed in the other groups.
Conclusion
Mild moxibustion and electroacupuncture significantly ameliorate colonic inflammation exacerbated by TET2 deficiency in UC mice via epigenetic modulation. Distinct mechanisms exist between the two interventions: mild moxibustion regulates both DNMT and hydroxymethylase, whereas electroacupuncture primarily affects DNMT.
4.Association of sleep quality with overweight and obesity among middle school students
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(6):779-782
Objective:
To explore relationship of sleep quality with overweight and obesity among middle school students, so as to provide a reference basis for improving adolescent sleep health.
Methods:
From September to December 2023, 5 713 middle school students aged 13 to 18 were selected by stratified cluster random sampling method in six regions, including Shanghai, Suzhou, Taiyuan, Wuyuan, Xingyi and Urumqi. Sleep quality survey was conducted on middle school students by Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Height and weight were measured, and World Health Organization s standards for growth and development of children and adolescents was used to evaluate their nutritional status. Both χ 2 test and Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the association between sleep quality and nutritional status of middle school students.
Results:
The non compliance detection rate of sleep quality was 38.4% among girls, but 29.2% among boys, and the difference was of statistical significance( χ 2=54.08, P < 0.01 ). The detection rate of substandard sleep quality was 34.2% in the group with normal nutritional status, 38.3% in the group with overweight, 43.7% in the group with obesity and 26.0% in the group with emaciation, and the difference in the rates of substandard sleep quality among middle school students of different nutritional status was statistically significant ( χ 2=68.15, P <0.01). Logistic regression analysis showed that, after controlling for mental health and physical activity, the detection rate of substandard sleep quality in the obese groups was 1.30 times higher than that in the normal group, respectively( OR =1.30, 95% CI =1.06- 1.59 , P <0.01).
Conclusions
Sleep quality is correlated with overweight and obesity among middle school students, and there are gender differences. Intervention policies should be formulated according to the characteristics of different genders.
5.Expert consensus on clinical protocol for treating herpes zoster with fire needling.
Xiaodong WU ; Bin LI ; Baoyan LIU ; Lin HE ; Zhishun LIU ; Shixi HUANG ; Keyi HUI ; Hongxia LIU ; Yuxia CAO ; Shuxin WANG ; Zhe XU ; Cang ZHANG ; Jingsheng ZHAO ; Yali LIU ; Nanqi ZHAO ; Nan DING ; Jing HU
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(12):1825-1832
The expert consensus on the clinical treatment of herpes zoster with fire needling was developed, and the commonly used fire needling treatment scheme verified by clinical research was selected to form a standardized diagnosis and treatment scheme for acute herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), so as to answer the core problems in clinical application. The consensus focuses on patients with herpes zoster, and forms recommendations for 9 key clinical issues, covering simple fire needling and TCM comprehensive therapy based on fire needling, including fire needling combined with cupping, fire needling combined with Chinese herb, fire needling combined with cupping and Chinese herb, fire needling combined with filiform needling, fire needling combined with moxibustion, and provides specific recommendations and operational guidelines for various therapies.
Humans
;
Herpes Zoster/therapy*
;
Acupuncture Therapy/instrumentation*
;
Consensus
;
Clinical Protocols
6.Primary regional disparities in clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of a typically designed study of valvular heart disease at 46 tertiary hospitals in China: Insights from the China-VHD Study.
Xiangming HU ; Yunqing YE ; Zhe LI ; Qingrong LIU ; Zhenyan ZHAO ; Zheng ZHOU ; Weiwei WANG ; Zikai YU ; Haitong ZHANG ; Zhenya DUAN ; Bincheng WANG ; Bin ZHANG ; Junxing LV ; Shuai GUO ; Yanyan ZHAO ; Runlin GAO ; Haiyan XU ; Yongjian WU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):937-946
BACKGROUND:
Valvular heart disease (VHD) has become increasingly common with the aging in China. This study aimed to evaluate regional differences in the clinical features, management strategies, and outcomes of patients with VHD across different regions in China.
METHODS:
Data were collected from the China-VHD Study. From April 2018 to June 2018, 12,347 patients who presented with moderate or severe native VHD with a median of 2 years of follow-up from 46 centers at certified tertiary hospitals across 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in Chinese mainland were included in this study. According to the locations of the research centers, patients were divided into five regional groups: eastern, southern, western, northern, and central China. The clinical features of VHD patients were compared among the five geographical regions. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality or rehospitalization for heart failure. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare the cumulative incidence rate.
RESULTS:
Among the enrolled patients (mean age, 61.96 years; 6877 [55.70%] male), multiple VHD was the most frequent type (4042, 32.74%), which was mainly found in eastern China, followed by isolated mitral regurgitation (3044, 24.65%), which was mainly found in northern China. The etiology of VHD varied significantly across different regions of China. The overall rate of valve interventions was 32.67% (4008/12,268), with the highest rate in southern China at 48.46% (205/423). In terms of procedure, the proportion of transcatheter valve intervention was relatively low compared to that of surgical treatment. Patients with VHD in western China had the highest incidence of all-cause mortality or rehospitalization for heart failure. Valve intervention significantly improved the outcome of patients with VHD in all five regions (all P <0.05).
CONCLUSIONS:
This study revealed that patients with VHD in China are characterized by significant geographic disparities in clinical features, treatment, and clinical outcomes. Targeted efforts are needed to improve the management and prognosis of patients with VHD in China according to differences in geographical characteristics.
REGISTRATION
ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03484806.
Aged
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Heart Valve Diseases/therapy*
;
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
;
Tertiary Care Centers
;
Treatment Outcome
7.Guideline-driven clinical decision support for colonoscopy patients using the hierarchical multi-label deep learning method.
Junling WU ; Jun CHEN ; Hanwen ZHANG ; Zhe LUAN ; Yiming ZHAO ; Mengxuan SUN ; Shufang WANG ; Congyong LI ; Zhizhuang ZHAO ; Wei ZHANG ; Yi CHEN ; Jiaqi ZHANG ; Yansheng LI ; Kejia LIU ; Jinghao NIU ; Gang SUN
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(20):2631-2639
BACKGROUND:
Over 20 million colonoscopies are performed in China annually. An automatic clinical decision support system (CDSS) with accurate semantic recognition of colonoscopy reports and guideline-based is helpful to relieve the increasing medical burden and standardize the healthcare. In this study, the CDSS was built under a hierarchical-label interpretable classification framework, trained by a state-of-the-art transformer-based model, and validated in a multi-center style.
METHODS:
We conducted stratified sampling on a previously established dataset containing 302,965 electronic colonoscopy reports with pathology, identified 2041 patients' records representative of overall features, and randomly divided into the training and testing sets (7:3). A total of five main labels and 22 sublabels were applied to annotate each record on a network platform, and the data were trained respectively by three pre-training models on Chinese corpus website, including bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT)-base-Chinese (BC), the BERT-wwm-ext-Chinese (BWEC), and ernie-3.0-base-zh (E3BZ). The performance of trained models was subsequently compared with a randomly initialized model, and the preferred model was selected. Model fine-tuning was applied to further enhance the capacity. The system was validated in five other hospitals with 3177 consecutive colonoscopy cases.
RESULTS:
The E3BZ pre-trained model exhibited the best performance, with a 90.18% accuracy and a 69.14% Macro-F1 score overall. The model achieved 100% accuracy in identifying cancer cases and 99.16% for normal cases. In external validation, the model exhibited favorable consistency and good performance among five hospitals.
CONCLUSIONS
The novel CDSS possesses high-level semantic recognition of colonoscopy reports, provides appropriate recommendations, and holds the potential to be a powerful tool for physicians and patients. The hierarchical multi-label strategy and pre-training method should be amendable to manage more medical text in the future.
Humans
;
Colonoscopy/methods*
;
Deep Learning
;
Decision Support Systems, Clinical
;
Female
;
Male
8.Development and Initial Validation of the Multi-Dimensional Attention Rating Scale in Highly Educated Adults.
Xin-Yang ZHANG ; Karen SPRUYT ; Jia-Yue SI ; Lin-Lin ZHANG ; Ting-Ting WU ; Yan-Nan LIU ; Di-Ga GAN ; Yu-Xin HU ; Si-Yu LIU ; Teng GAO ; Yi ZHONG ; Yao GE ; Zhe LI ; Zi-Yan LIN ; Yan-Ping BAO ; Xue-Qin WANG ; Yu-Feng WANG ; Lin LU
Chinese Medical Sciences Journal 2025;40(2):100-110
OBJECTIVES:
To report the development, validation, and findings of the Multi-dimensional Attention Rating Scale (MARS), a self-report tool crafted to evaluate six-dimension attention levels.
METHODS:
The MARS was developed based on Classical Test Theory (CTT). Totally 202 highly educated healthy adult participants were recruited for reliability and validity tests. Reliability was measured using Cronbach's alpha and test-retest reliability. Structural validity was explored using principal component analysis. Criterion validity was analyzed by correlating MARS scores with the Toronto Hospital Alertness Test (THAT), the Attentional Control Scale (ACS), and the Attention Network Test (ANT).
RESULTS:
The MARS comprises 12 items spanning six distinct dimensions of attention: focused attention, sustained attention, shifting attention, selective attention, divided attention, and response inhibition.As assessed by six experts, the content validation index (CVI) was 0.95, the Cronbach's alpha for the MARS was 0.78, and the test-retest reliability was 0.81. Four factors were identified (cumulative variance contribution rate 68.79%). The total score of MARS was correlated positively with THAT (r = 0.60, P < 0.01) and ACS (r = 0.78, P < 0.01) and negatively with ANT's reaction time for alerting (r = -0.31, P = 0.049).
CONCLUSIONS
The MARS can reliably and validly assess six-dimension attention levels in real-world settings and is expected to be a new tool for assessing multi-dimensional attention impairments in different mental disorders.
Humans
;
Adult
;
Male
;
Attention/physiology*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Reproducibility of Results
;
Young Adult
;
Psychometrics
9.A case-control study of shoulder arthroscopic double row and single row technique for the treatment of Ideberg type ⅠA scapular glenoid fracture.
Zhe-Yuan SHEN ; Rong WU ; Qiao-Ying PENG ; Heng LI ; Song-Hua GUO ; Zhan-Feng ZHANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(3):223-230
OBJECTIVE:
To compare clinical effect of arthroscopic double row fixation and single row fixation in treating Ideberg typeⅠA scapular glenoid fracture.
METHODS:
From June 2018 to December 2022, 26 patients with Ideberg typeⅠA scapular glenoid fracture treated with shoulder arthroscopy were divided into single-row anchor group and double-row anchor group according to the fixation method of fracture block. There were 12 patients in single-row anchor group, including 7 males and 5 females, aged from 25 to 53 years old with an average of (38.42±9.61) years old;the time from injury to operation ranged from 2 to 7 days with an average of (4.75±1.82) days. There were 14 patients in double-row anchor group, including 10 males and 4 females, aged from 21to 53 years old with an average of (37.36±10.19) years old;the time from injury to operation ranged from 1 to 8 days with an average of (4.21±2.01) days. The changes of shoulder joint flexion, abduction, lateral lateral rotation, Constant-Murley shoulder function score and Rowe scores were compared between two groups before operation and 1 year after operation. The percentage of bone mass in pelvis area before operation and the percentage of bone defect in pelvis area at the latest follow-up were compared between two groups.
RESULTS:
All patients were followed up for 12 to 15 months with an average of (13.08±1.17) months in single-row anchor group and 12 to 15 months with an average of (13.29±1.07) months in double-row anchor group, with no statistical significance between two groups (P>0.05). The results of anterior flexion, abduction and lateral lateral rotation in single-row anchor group were(86.67±6.62) °, (79.50±5.68) °, (38.17±1.70) ° before operation, and (162.50±4.52)°, (169.17±3.35)°, (50.67±10.20)° at 1 year after operation; while in double-row anchor group were (84.14±5.48) °, (81.71±5.20) °, (39.29±3.63) ° before operation and (162.29 ± 5.53) °, (167.14±3.61) °, (56.93±9.56) ° at 1 year after operation;the difference between two groups before operation and 1 year after operation was statistically significant (P<0.05). There were no significant difference between two groups (P>0.05). Constant-Murley scores and Rowe scores in single-row anchor group were (55.42±3.75), (43.75±18.49) before operation and (94.83±2.21), (95.42±4.50) at 1 year after operation, respectively;while in double-row anchor group were (54.50±7.88), (41.79±18.25) before operation and (94.36±4.73), (95.00±4.80) at 1 year after operation;there was no significant difference in Constant-Murley score and Rowe score between two groups before operation and 1 year after operation (P>0.05). There was significant difference in the percentage of bone mass in pelvis area between two groups before operation (P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the percentage of bone defect in the shoulder area between single-row anchor group(4.42±1.51)% and double-row anchor group (2.71±1.44)% at 1 year after operation (P<0.05).
CONCLUSION
Both single and double row fixation techniques for the treatment of Ideberg typeⅠA scapular glenoid fracture could receive satisfactory functional recovery. However, double-row fixation has more advantages in reducing bone resorption of fracture mass.
Humans
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Female
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Arthroscopy/methods*
;
Adult
;
Scapula/surgery*
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Fractures, Bone/physiopathology*
;
Fracture Fixation, Internal/methods*
;
Shoulder Joint/physiopathology*
;
Range of Motion, Articular
10.Construction of a mixed valvular heart disease-related age-adjusted comorbidity index and its predictive value for patient prognosis.
Murong XIE ; Haiyan XU ; Bin ZHANG ; Yunqing YE ; Zhe LI ; Qingrong LIU ; Zhenyan ZHAO ; Junxing LYU ; Yongjian WU
Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2025;54(2):230-240
OBJECTIVES:
To create a mixed valvular heart disease (MVHD)-related age-adjusted comorbidity index (MVACI) model for predicting mortality risk of patients with MVHD.
METHODS:
A total of 4080 patients with moderate or severe MVHD in the China-VHD study were included. The primary endpoint was 2-year all-cause mortality. A MVACI model prediction model was constructed based on the mortality risk factors identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Restricted cubic splines were used to assess the relationship between MVACI scores and 2-year all-cause mortality. The optimal threshold, determined by the maximum Youden index from receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, was used to stratify patients. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate 2-year all-cause mortality and compared using the Log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), evaluating the association between MVACI scores and mortality. Paired ROC curves were used to compare the discriminative ability of MVACI scores with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation Ⅱ(EuroSCORE Ⅱ) or the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) in predicting 2-year clinical outcomes, while calibration curves assessed the calibration of these models. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on etiology, treatment strategies, and disease severity.
RESULTS:
Multivariate analysis identified the following variables independently associated with 2-year all-cause mortality in patients: pulmonary hypertension, myocardiopathy, heart failure, low body weight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2), anaemia, hypoalbuminemia, renal insufficiency, cancer, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and age. The score was independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality, and exhibited good discrimination (AUC=0.777, 95%CI: 0.755-0.799) and calibration (Brier score 0.062), with significantly better predictive performance than EuroSCORE Ⅱ or ACCI (both adjusted P<0.01). The internal validation showed that the MVACI model's predicted probability of 2-year all-cause mortality was generally consistent with the actual probability. The AUCs for predicting all-cause mortality risk were all above 0.750, and those for predicting adverse events were all above 0.630. The prognostic value of the score remained consistent in patients regardless of their etiology, therapeutic option, and disease severity.
CONCLUSIONS
The MVACI was constructed in this study based on age and comorbidities, and can be used for mortality risk prediction and risk stratification of MVHD patients. It is a simple algorithmic index and easy to use.
Humans
;
Prognosis
;
Comorbidity
;
Heart Valve Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Risk Factors
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Age Factors
;
Risk Assessment
;
Adult
;
ROC Curve


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