Objective:To investigate the application of time series models in forecasting pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan City and develop the LPro ensemble model for improved prediction accuracy to support emergency resource allocation.Methods:Pre-hospital emergency data from Handan Emergency Medical Command Center (2019-2023) were retrospectively analyzed. From 324 799 original records, 289 949 valid records were included after cleaning. The training set (2019-2022: 215 918 records) included 35 527 records in 2019, 52 015 in 2020, 61 836 in 2021, and 66 540 in 2022. The validation set (2023) contained 74 031 records. ARIMA, linear trend seasonal, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models were fitted to the training set. The LPro ensemble model was constructed using MAPE-based weighting (linear trend seasonal model: 0.38, Prophet: 0.62). Performance metrics included MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R 2. Results:Data showed annual growth (compound annual growth rate 23.27%) and seasonal patterns (October peaks, February troughs). Ambulance dispatches increased annually with monthly cyclical patterns. For 2023 validation predictions: ARIMA (MAPE 8.76%, RMSE 619, MAE 491, R 2 0.4563), linear trend seasonal (MAPE 9.83%, RMSE 671, MAE 545, R 2 0.3608), Prophet (MAPE 8.43%, RMSE 562, MAE 503, R 2 0.5513), exponential smoothing (MAPE 8.08%, RMSE 643, MAE 410, R 2 0.4124). LPro model showed superior performance (MAPE 7.05%, RMSE 491, MAE 393, R 2 0.6570), with 16.37% lower MAPE, 12.63% lower RMSE, 21.87% lower MAE, and 19.17% higher R 2 versus Prophet. Conclusion:The LPro ensemble model substantially enhances prediction accuracy and reliability, offering scientific support for emergency resource optimization and dispatch scheduling in Handan City.

Senecavirus A (SVA) is a major viral pathogen causing disease in pigs, and effective monitoring of SVA infection is critical for disease control. In this study, we aimed to develop a reliable ELISA method for rapidly detecting neutralizing antibodies against SVA. We used HEK293F cells to express an SVA-specific porcine Fab antibody and verified the biological activity of the Fab antibody by indirect ELISA, immunofluorescence assay, virus neutralization test, and Western blotting. The Fab antibody was biotinylated and used as a competitive antibody to establish a competitive ELISA (C-ELISA) for detecting neutralizing antibodies against SVA. We then evaluated the C-ELISA in terms of sensitivity, specificity, repeatability, and result agreement rate with the VNT. The results showed that we successfully prepared an SVA-specific porcine Fab antibody, which showed high affinity for SVA. We named this antibody 1M33Fab and designated it as Bio-1M33Fab after biotin labeling. The assay conditions were optimized as follows: the coating concentration of SVA particles being 1 μg/mL, the working concentration of Bio-1M33Fab being 0.5 μg/mL, the optimal serum dilution of 1:10, and the optimal dilution of enzyme-labeled avidin being 1:30 000. At a percent inhibition (PI) of 47%, the assay demonstrated the highest sensitivity (96.88%) and specificity (100%), with no cross-reactivity observed with the positive sera of major porcine viral diseases. The intra-assay coefficient of variation ranged from 1.12% to 7.34%, while the inter-assay coefficient of variation ranged from 1.10% to 8.97%, indicating good repeatability. In the detection of 224 clinical pig serum samples, C-ELISA and VNT showed a result agreement rate of 93.75%. In conclusion, we successfully develop a C-ELISA method for detecting neutralizing antibodies against SVA by using a porcine-derived Fab antibody, which lays a foundation for the development of detection kits.
Animals ; Swine ; Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology* ; Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay/methods* ; Immunoglobulin Fab Fragments/immunology* ; Antibodies, Viral/immunology* ; Picornaviridae/immunology* ; Humans ; HEK293 Cells ; Swine Diseases/diagnosis* ; Picornaviridae Infections/diagnosis*

Objective To evaluate the efficacy and safety of polyethylene glycol electrolyte powder(PEG)combined with linaclotide(Lin)for bowel preparation in elderly constipated patients before colonoscopy.Methods In this prospective,randomized controlled trial,90 elderly patients with constipation undergoing colonoscopy were recruited at our hospital from June 2022 to December 2023.Participants were randomly assigned to three groups(n=30 each):PEG-3L alone,PEG-3L+Lin,and PEG-2L+Lin.Primary outcome was Boston Bowel Preparation Scale(BBPS)score and secondary outcomes included adverse event rates,colonoscopy completion rate,withdrawal time,and polyp detection rate.Statistical analysis was performed using independent t-tests and chi-square tests.Results The PEG-3L+Lin group achieved significantly higher BBPS scores than both PEG-3L alone and PEG-2L+Lin groups did(both P<0.001).The PEG-2L+Lin group also outperformed the PEG-3L alone group in cleansing efficacy(90.0%vs.76.7%,P=0.008).The PEG-2L+Lin group demonstrated the best tolerability and lowest adverse event rate,the PEG-3L group had the longest withdrawal time(P<0.05),but the three groups showed no significant difference in polyp detection rates.Conclusion PEG combined with linaclotide significantly improves bowel cleansing in elderly constipated patients.PEG-2L+Lin regimen provides optimal balance between efficacy,safety,and tolerability,making it a preferable choice for this population.

Objective:To investigate the semen characteristics of male patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) complicated by infertility and the impact of PKD1 mutations on their reproductive outcomes following preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic diseases (PGT-M). Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of ADPKD patients in the Clinical Center of Reproductive Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2015 to December 2023. The study included two groups: observation group consisting of male infertility patients with ADPKD aged 20-45 years ( n=78), and control group comprising ADPKD patients with PKD1 mutations who demonstrated normal semen parameters ( n=5). According to the type of mutation, the patients were further divided into the PKD1 truncated mutation group and the non-truncated mutation group. Baseline data, ovulation induction outcomes and PGT-M clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effects of age, family history, mutation type and mutation position on semen quality and live birth rates. Results:In the observation group, there were 28 cases of asthenozoospermia, 38 cases of oligoasthenozoospermia, and 12 cases of azoospermia. The total sperm count and forward motility ratio of patients with asthenozoospermia, oligoasthenozoospermia, and azoospermia in the observation group were significantly different from those in control group (all P<0.001). Genetic diagnosis revealed PKD1 mutations in 70 cases, PKD2 mutation in 1 case, and no known pathogenic mutations were identified in 7 cases. Among the 70 ADPKD patients with PKD1 mutations, 52 couples underwent PGT-M assisted reproduction. The blastocyst formation rate was significantly lower in the non-truncating mutation group [44.74% (51/114)] than in the truncating mutation group [58.76% (161/274), P=0.011]. No statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in other parameters including age of both partners, semen parameters, number of oocytes retrieved, two pronuclei (2PN) rate, number of available embryos, high-quality embryo rate, clinical pregnancy rate, miscarriage rate, and live birth rate (all P>0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that neither PKD1 mutation type nor PKD1 mutation site was an independent factor affecting semen parameters and live birth rate in ADPKD patients (all P>0.05). Conclusions:Asthenospermia and oligoasthenospermia are the most common semen phenotypes in ADPKD-associated male infertility. The PKD1 mutation type and location are not associated with abnormal semen parameters in ADPKD-associated infertility patients. PKD1 mutation types do not affect the outcomes of PGT-M in infertile patients with ADPKD.

Objective To evaluate the efficacy and safety of polyethylene glycol electrolyte powder(PEG)combined with linaclotide(Lin)for bowel preparation in elderly constipated patients before colonoscopy.Methods In this prospective,randomized controlled trial,90 elderly patients with constipation undergoing colonoscopy were recruited at our hospital from June 2022 to December 2023.Participants were randomly assigned to three groups(n=30 each):PEG-3L alone,PEG-3L+Lin,and PEG-2L+Lin.Primary outcome was Boston Bowel Preparation Scale(BBPS)score and secondary outcomes included adverse event rates,colonoscopy completion rate,withdrawal time,and polyp detection rate.Statistical analysis was performed using independent t-tests and chi-square tests.Results The PEG-3L+Lin group achieved significantly higher BBPS scores than both PEG-3L alone and PEG-2L+Lin groups did(both P<0.001).The PEG-2L+Lin group also outperformed the PEG-3L alone group in cleansing efficacy(90.0%vs.76.7%,P=0.008).The PEG-2L+Lin group demonstrated the best tolerability and lowest adverse event rate,the PEG-3L group had the longest withdrawal time(P<0.05),but the three groups showed no significant difference in polyp detection rates.Conclusion PEG combined with linaclotide significantly improves bowel cleansing in elderly constipated patients.PEG-2L+Lin regimen provides optimal balance between efficacy,safety,and tolerability,making it a preferable choice for this population.

To evaluate the feasibility and safety of dilation treatment under the guidance of precise puncture assisted with double endoscopes for anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery, 3 cases with anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery were treated precisely under endoscopy. The first colonoscopy was introduced through the terminal ileum stoma to anastomotic site, another endoscope was inserted through the anus to the anastomosis. Precise puncture of the contralateral intestinal cavity was done through light source positioning. The puncture needle was seen under the direct vision of endoscope, and then the guide wire was inserted. Anastomosis was dilated by the balloon through the guide wire. Endoscopic recanalization of anastomotic atresia was successfully completed in 3 patients. No complication occurred during the treatment with the mean operation time of 44.3 minutes. The ileal terminal stoma reduction surgery was performed 1-3 months after endoscopic treatment. Dilation treatment under the guidance of precise puncture assisted with double endoscopes for anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery is reliable with the advantages of short operation time, safety and convenience, and no need for X-ray assistance.

Objective:To investigate the semen characteristics of male patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) complicated by infertility and the impact of PKD1 mutations on their reproductive outcomes following preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic diseases (PGT-M). Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of ADPKD patients in the Clinical Center of Reproductive Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2015 to December 2023. The study included two groups: observation group consisting of male infertility patients with ADPKD aged 20-45 years ( n=78), and control group comprising ADPKD patients with PKD1 mutations who demonstrated normal semen parameters ( n=5). According to the type of mutation, the patients were further divided into the PKD1 truncated mutation group and the non-truncated mutation group. Baseline data, ovulation induction outcomes and PGT-M clinical outcomes were compared between the two groups. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effects of age, family history, mutation type and mutation position on semen quality and live birth rates. Results:In the observation group, there were 28 cases of asthenozoospermia, 38 cases of oligoasthenozoospermia, and 12 cases of azoospermia. The total sperm count and forward motility ratio of patients with asthenozoospermia, oligoasthenozoospermia, and azoospermia in the observation group were significantly different from those in control group (all P<0.001). Genetic diagnosis revealed PKD1 mutations in 70 cases, PKD2 mutation in 1 case, and no known pathogenic mutations were identified in 7 cases. Among the 70 ADPKD patients with PKD1 mutations, 52 couples underwent PGT-M assisted reproduction. The blastocyst formation rate was significantly lower in the non-truncating mutation group [44.74% (51/114)] than in the truncating mutation group [58.76% (161/274), P=0.011]. No statistically significant differences were observed between the two groups in other parameters including age of both partners, semen parameters, number of oocytes retrieved, two pronuclei (2PN) rate, number of available embryos, high-quality embryo rate, clinical pregnancy rate, miscarriage rate, and live birth rate (all P>0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that neither PKD1 mutation type nor PKD1 mutation site was an independent factor affecting semen parameters and live birth rate in ADPKD patients (all P>0.05). Conclusions:Asthenospermia and oligoasthenospermia are the most common semen phenotypes in ADPKD-associated male infertility. The PKD1 mutation type and location are not associated with abnormal semen parameters in ADPKD-associated infertility patients. PKD1 mutation types do not affect the outcomes of PGT-M in infertile patients with ADPKD.

To evaluate the feasibility and safety of dilation treatment under the guidance of precise puncture assisted with double endoscopes for anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery, 3 cases with anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery were treated precisely under endoscopy. The first colonoscopy was introduced through the terminal ileum stoma to anastomotic site, another endoscope was inserted through the anus to the anastomosis. Precise puncture of the contralateral intestinal cavity was done through light source positioning. The puncture needle was seen under the direct vision of endoscope, and then the guide wire was inserted. Anastomosis was dilated by the balloon through the guide wire. Endoscopic recanalization of anastomotic atresia was successfully completed in 3 patients. No complication occurred during the treatment with the mean operation time of 44.3 minutes. The ileal terminal stoma reduction surgery was performed 1-3 months after endoscopic treatment. Dilation treatment under the guidance of precise puncture assisted with double endoscopes for anastomotic atresia after colorectal cancer surgery is reliable with the advantages of short operation time, safety and convenience, and no need for X-ray assistance.

Objective:To explore the efficacy and safety of domestic bortezomib in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone in the treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) .Methods:This multicenter, prospective, single-arm clinical study included 126 patients with NDMM admitted to seven hospitals between December 2019 and January 2022. All patients received domestic bortezomib in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (BLD regimen), and the efficacy, prognostic factors, and safety were analyzed.Results:Among the 126 patients with NDMM, 118 completed four cycles of treatment, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 93.22% (110/118) and a ≥very good partial response (VGPR) rate of 68.64% (81/118). Ultimately, 114 patients completed at least eight cycles of treatment, with an ORR of 92.98% (106/114) and a ≥VGPR rate of 77.19% (88/114). Eighteen patients underwent autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation after completing 6-8 cycles of the BLD regimen, with an ORR of 100% (18/18) and a ≥VGPR rate of 88.9% (16/18). The proportion of patients achieving ≥VGPR increased with the treatment duration, and factors such as staging and age did not significantly affect efficacy. Single-factor analysis showed that R2-ISS stage Ⅲ/Ⅳ, blood calcium >2.27 mmol/L, and failure to achieve VGPR after six cycles were adverse prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS) ( P<0.05), whereas failure to achieve VGPR after six cycles was an adverse prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) ( P<0.001). Multifactor analysis demonstrated that failure to achieve VGPR after six cycles is an independent adverse prognostic factor for PFS ( P=0.002). The incidence of hematologic adverse reactions was 16.7% (19/114), and nonhematologic adverse reactions were mainly mild to moderate, with no significant cardiac or renal adverse reactions observed. Conclusion:The BLD regimen is effective in treating NDMM, in which patients with high-risk genetic features are still achieving a high ≥VGPR rate, and the overall safety is good.

Objective:This investigation sought to delineate the associations among colorectal adenomatous polyps, diabetes, and biomolecules involved in glucose metabolism.Method:Data were collected from 40 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy at the Endoscopy Department of Shandong Cancer Hospital between June 2019 and September 2021. This cohort included 27 patients with inflammatory polyps and 13 with adenomatous polyps. We assessed fasting insulin (Fins), fasting blood glucose (FBG), and the mRNA expressions of fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF-19) and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) in the polyp tissues. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to ascertain the determinants influencing the emergence of adenomatous polyps. From these analyses, a predictive nomogram was constructed to forecast the occurrence of adenomatous polyps, and evaluations on the discriminative capacity, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were conducted.Results:The adenomatous polyp group exhibited markedly elevated levels of glucose, insulin, FGF-19, and IGF-1, with respective concentrations of (8.67±2.70) mmol/L, (12.72±7.69) μU/L, 2.20±1.88, and 1.36±0.69. These figures were significantly higher compared to the inflammatory polyp group, which showed levels of (5.51±0.72) mmol/L, (5.49±2.68) μU/L, 0.53±0.97, and 0.41±0.46, respectively, P=0.001. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the relative expression of IGF-1 served as an independent risk factor for the development of colorectal adenomatous polyps ( OR=5.622, 95% CI:1.085-29.126). The nomogram displayed a C-index of 0.849, indicating substantial discriminative capability. The calibration curve affirmed the model's accuracy in aligning predicted probabilities with actual outcomes, and the clinical decision curve demonstrated thepractical clinical applicability of the model. Conclusions:There was a significant correlation between the occurrence of colorectal adenomatous polyps and glucose metabolic pathways. Individuals with diabetes showed a higher propensity to develop such polyps.