1.Prediction analysis of the number of pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan based on the LPro Ensemble Model
Feng TIAN ; Chengcheng BI ; Penghui LI ; Haifang ZHANG ; Tingting ZHAO ; Zhenjie YANG ; Xian WANG ; Jiaxuan GU ; Shitao ZHOU ; Zengjun JIN ; Zhen WANG ; Feifei ZHAO ; Xianhui SU ; Longqiang ZHANG ; Saicong LU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(11):1530-1537
Objective:To investigate the application of time series models in forecasting pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan City and develop the LPro ensemble model for improved prediction accuracy to support emergency resource allocation.Methods:Pre-hospital emergency data from Handan Emergency Medical Command Center (2019-2023) were retrospectively analyzed. From 324 799 original records, 289 949 valid records were included after cleaning. The training set (2019-2022: 215 918 records) included 35 527 records in 2019, 52 015 in 2020, 61 836 in 2021, and 66 540 in 2022. The validation set (2023) contained 74 031 records. ARIMA, linear trend seasonal, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models were fitted to the training set. The LPro ensemble model was constructed using MAPE-based weighting (linear trend seasonal model: 0.38, Prophet: 0.62). Performance metrics included MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R 2. Results:Data showed annual growth (compound annual growth rate 23.27%) and seasonal patterns (October peaks, February troughs). Ambulance dispatches increased annually with monthly cyclical patterns. For 2023 validation predictions: ARIMA (MAPE 8.76%, RMSE 619, MAE 491, R 2 0.4563), linear trend seasonal (MAPE 9.83%, RMSE 671, MAE 545, R 2 0.3608), Prophet (MAPE 8.43%, RMSE 562, MAE 503, R 2 0.5513), exponential smoothing (MAPE 8.08%, RMSE 643, MAE 410, R 2 0.4124). LPro model showed superior performance (MAPE 7.05%, RMSE 491, MAE 393, R 2 0.6570), with 16.37% lower MAPE, 12.63% lower RMSE, 21.87% lower MAE, and 19.17% higher R 2 versus Prophet. Conclusion:The LPro ensemble model substantially enhances prediction accuracy and reliability, offering scientific support for emergency resource optimization and dispatch scheduling in Handan City.
2.Efficacy and safety of mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection in treatment of peripheral T-cell lymphomas: a multicenter, non-interventional, ambispective cohort, real-world study (MOMENT)
Huiqiang HUANG ; Zhiming LI ; Lihong LIU ; Liang HUANG ; Jie JIN ; Hongyan TONG ; Hui ZHOU ; Zengjun LI ; Zhenqian HUANG ; Wenbin QIAN ; Kaiyang DING ; Quande LIN ; Ming HOU ; Yunhong HUANG ; Jingbo WANG ; Pengcheng HE ; Xiuhua SUN ; Xiaobo WANG ; Zunmin ZHU ; Yao LIU ; Jinhai REN ; Huijing WU ; Liling ZHANG ; Hao ZHANG ; Liangquan GENG ; Jian GE ; Ou BAI ; Liping SU ; Guangxun GAO ; Xin LI ; Yanli YANG ; Yijian CHEN ; Aichun LIU ; Xin WANG ; Yi WANG ; Liqun ZOU ; Xiaobing HUANG ; Dongping HUANG ; Shujuan WEN ; Donglu ZHAO ; Jun MA
Journal of Leukemia & Lymphoma 2023;32(8):457-464
Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection in the treatment of peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) in a real-world setting.Methods:This was a real-world ambispective cohort study (MOMENT study) (Chinese clinical trial registry number: ChiCTR2200062067). Clinical data were collected from 198 patients who received mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection as monotherapy or combination therapy at 37 hospitals from January 2022 to January 2023, including 166 patients in the retrospective cohort and 32 patients in the prospective cohort; 10 patients in the treatment-na?ve group and 188 patients in the relapsed/refractory group. Clinical characteristics, efficacy and adverse events were summarized, and the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed.Results:All 198 patients were treated with mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection for a median of 3 cycles (range 1-7 cycles); 28 cases were treated with mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection as monotherapy, and 170 cases were treated with the combination regimen. Among 188 relapsed/refractory patients, 45 cases (23.9%) were in complete remission (CR), 82 cases (43.6%) were in partial remission (PR), and 28 cases (14.9%) were in disease stabilization (SD), and 33 cases (17.6%) were in disease progression (PD), with an objective remission rate (ORR) of 67.6% (127/188). Among 10 treatment-na?ve patients, 4 cases (40.0%) were in CR, 5 cases (50.0%) were in PR, and 1 case (10.0%) was in PD, with an ORR of 90.0% (9/10). The median follow-up time was 2.9 months (95% CI 2.4-3.7 months), and the median PFS and OS of patients in relapsed/refractory and treatment-na?ve groups were not reached. In relapsed/refractory patients, the difference in ORR between patients with different number of treatment lines of mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection [ORR of the second-line, the third-line and ≥the forth-line treatment was 74.4% (67/90), 73.9% (34/46) and 50.0% (26/52)] was statistically significant ( P = 0.008). Of the 198 PTCL patients, 182 cases (91.9%) experienced at least 1 time of treatment-related adverse events, and the incidence rate of ≥grade 3 adverse events was 66.7% (132/198), which was mainly characterized by hematologic adverse events. The ≥ grade 3 hematologic adverse events mainly included decreased lymphocyte count, decreased neutrophil count, decreased white blood cell count, and anemia; non-hematologic adverse events were mostly grade 1-2, mainly including pigmentation disorders and upper respiratory tract infection. Conclusions:The use of mitoxantrone hydrochloride liposome injection-containing regimen in the treatment of PTCL has definite efficacy and is well tolerated, and it is a new therapeutic option for PTCL patients.
3.Clinical analysis and imaging features of 5 cases of anti GABA-B receptor encephalitis
Ying SHI ; Xin JIN ; Dechao WANG ; Haiyan LIU ; Weibin LI ; Yun CAI ; Huiling WANG ; Zengjun KANG ; Qiang LI
Chinese Journal of Nervous and Mental Diseases 2017;43(10):591-596
Objective To investigate the clinical manifestations, laboratory and imaging features, treatments and prognosis of anti GABA-B receptor encephalitis. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of the clinical data of five cases with anti GABA-B receptor encephalitis diagnosed by cerebrospinal fluid immunological examination. Results Five cases had acute onset. The initial clinical symptom was epileptic seizure. After epileptic attack, patients developed different degrees of cognition dysfunction, mental and behavioral disorders. Neuroimaging showed that the lesions mainly involved medial temporal lobe and hippocampus. The lesions ware equal or low density shadows in CT scan and long T 1 and T2 signals, T2 high signals on Flair, equal or high signals on DWI in MRI scan. Cranial MRI enhancement showed lesions with no enhancement in two tested cases. One case took PET-CT and data showed a low density shadow of temporal lobe and hippocampus with increased metabolism. CSF and blood immunological examinations showed CSF GABAB-R-AB positive (+), blood GABAB-R-AB positive (+). Five cases were associated with increased NSE. EEG was nonspecific and related to the conscious state of the patient. Lung CT showed enlarged mediastinal lymph nodes in 5 tested cases. Central lung cancers were found in five cases including three cases at onset and two cases during three month follow-up. Bronchoscopic biopsy identified small cell lung cancer in two examined cases. Conclusion Epileptic seizure is the most frequent initial symptoms of anti GABA-B encephalitis. Inflammatory response signals in the medial temporal lobe and hippocampus are image features of anti GABA-B encephalitis. The disease is closely related to lung cancer (Especially c small cell lung cancer, SCLC). Immunological examination of cerebrospinal fluid and the above characteristics are helpful for diagnosis.

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