Objective: To construct a framework for risk identification and mechanistic explanation of conduct problems in adolescents, so as to provide a basis for formulating effective prevention strategies. Methods: In October 2025, a total of 2 126 junior and senior high school students from Zibo City in Shandong Province, Zhengzhou City in Henan Province, and Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province were selected as the study subjects using a combination of convenience sampling and random cluster sampling. The instruments included the Adolescent Conduct Problem Tendency Questionnaire, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, Callous- Unemotional Traits Scale, Parenting Style Scale, Family Adaptation, Partnership, Growth, Affection, and Resolve Scale, Perceived School Climate Scale, and the School Context Subscale of the Multiple Violence Exposure Scale. Machine learning algorithms and response surface methodology (RSM) were employed to reveal the non linear interactive effects of risk factors on adolescent conduct problems. Results: Impulsive personality ranked first in feature importance, followed by neglectful parenting style and perceived school climate. Impulsive personality and neglectful parenting style both positively predicted rule breaking ( B =0.42, 0.16) and aggression tendencies( B =0.41,0.14), with the interaction effect between the two being significantly negative in both cases ( B =-0.19,-0.08); impulsive personality ( B =0.33) and perceived school climate ( B =0.47) positively predicted addiction tendency, with the interaction term being significantly negative ( B =-0.16)(all P <0.05). For rule breaking tendency, the congruence slope (0.58), congruence curvature (-0.16), incongruence slope (0.26), and incongruence curvature (0.22) all reached statistical significance (all P <0.05). For addiction tendency, the congruence slope (0.79), incongruence slope (-0.15), and incongruence curvature (0.34) all reached statistical significance (all P <0.05). For aggression tendency, the congruence slope (0.55), incongruence slope (0.26), and incongruence curvature (0.15) all reached statistical significance(all P <0.05). Conclusion Impulsive personality is the core driver of rule breaking and aggression tendencies, with neglectful parenting style playing a moderating role; perceived school climate is the core driver of addiction tendency and exhibits an interactive inhibition effect with impulsive personality.