1.Value and validation of a nomogram model based on the Charlson comorbidity index for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by ventricular arrhythmias.
Nan XIE ; Weiwei LIU ; Pengzhu YANG ; Xiang YAO ; Yuxuan GUO ; Cong YUAN
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(5):793-804
OBJECTIVES:
The Charlson comorbidity index reflects overall comorbidity burden and has been applied in cardiovascular medicine. However, its role in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by ventricular arrhythmias (VA) remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of the Charlson comorbidity index in this setting and to construct a nomogram model for early risk identification and individualized management to improve outcomes.
METHODS:
Using the open-access critical care database MIMIC-IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV), we identified intensive care unit (ICU) patients diagnosed with AMI complicated by VA. Patients were grouped according to in-hospital survival. The predictive performance of the Charlson comorbidity index and other clinical variables for in-hospital mortality was analyzed. Key predictors were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, followed by multivariable Logistic regression. A nomogram model was constructed based on the regression results. Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots.
RESULTS:
A total of 1 492 patients with AMI and VA were included, of whom 340 died and 1 152 survived during hospitalization. Significant differences were observed between survivors and non-survivors in sex distribution, vital signs, comorbidity burden, organ function, and laboratory parameters (all P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the Charlson comorbidity index for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.712 (95% CI 0.681 to 0.742), significantly higher than albumin, international normalized ratio (INR), hemoglobin, body temperature, and platelet count (all P<0.001), but comparable to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (P>0.05). LASSO regression identified seven key predictors: the Charlson comorbidity index (quartile groups: T1, <6; T2, ≥6-<7; T3, ≥7-<9; T4, ≥9), ventricular fibrillation, age, systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, body temperature, and SOFA score. Multivariate Logistic regression showed that compared with T1, mortality risk increased significantly in T2 (OR=1.996, 95% CI 1.135 to 3.486, P=0.016), T3 (OR=3.386, 95% CI 2.192 to 5.302, P<0.001), and T4 (OR=5.679, 95% CI 3.711 to 8.842, P<0.001). Age (OR=1.056, P<0.001), respiratory rate (OR=1.069, P<0.001), SOFA score (OR=1.223, P<0.001), and ventricular fibrillation (OR=2.174, P<0.001) were independent risk factors, while systolic blood pressure (OR=0.984, P<0.001) and body temperature (OR=0.648, P<0.001) were protective factors. The nomogram incorporating these predictors achieved an AUC of 0.849 (95% CI 0.826 to 0.871) with high discrimination and good calibration (mean absolute error=0.014).
CONCLUSIONS
The Charlson comorbidity index is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients complicated by VA, with performance comparable to the SOFA score. The nomogram model based on the Charlson comorbidity index and additional clinical variables effectively estimates mortality risk and provides a valuable reference for clinical decision-making.
Humans
;
Nomograms
;
Hospital Mortality
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Myocardial Infarction/complications*
;
Male
;
Female
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Comorbidity
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Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Arrhythmias, Cardiac/complications*
;
ROC Curve
;
Intensive Care Units
2.The lysine methyltransferase SMYD2 facilitates neointimal hyperplasia by regulating the HDAC3-SRF axis.
Xiaoxuan ZHONG ; Xiang WEI ; Yan XU ; Xuehai ZHU ; Bo HUO ; Xian GUO ; Gaoke FENG ; Zihao ZHANG ; Xin FENG ; Zemin FANG ; Yuxuan LUO ; Xin YI ; Ding-Sheng JIANG
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2024;14(2):712-728
Coronary restenosis is an important cause of poor long-term prognosis in patients with coronary heart disease. Here, we show that lysine methyltransferase SMYD2 expression in the nucleus is significantly elevated in serum- and PDGF-BB-induced vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs), and in tissues of carotid artery injury-induced neointimal hyperplasia. Smyd2 overexpression in VSMCs (Smyd2-vTg) facilitates, but treatment with its specific inhibitor LLY-507 or SMYD2 knockdown significantly inhibits VSMC phenotypic switching and carotid artery injury-induced neointima formation in mice. Transcriptome sequencing revealed that SMYD2 knockdown represses the expression of serum response factor (SRF) target genes and that SRF overexpression largely reverses the inhibitory effect of SMYD2 knockdown on VSMC proliferation. HDAC3 directly interacts with and deacetylates SRF, which enhances SRF transcriptional activity in VSMCs. Moreover, SMYD2 promotes HDAC3 expression via tri-methylation of H3K36 at its promoter. RGFP966, a specific inhibitor of HDAC3, not only counteracts the pro-proliferation effect of SMYD2 overexpression on VSMCs, but also inhibits carotid artery injury-induced neointima formation in mice. HDAC3 partially abolishes the inhibitory effect of SMYD2 knockdown on VSMC proliferation in a deacetylase activity-dependent manner. Our results reveal that the SMYD2-HDAC3-SRF axis constitutes a novel and critical epigenetic mechanism that regulates VSMC phenotypic switching and neointimal hyperplasia.
3.Progress of Risk Prediction Model for Liver Cancer in Population-Based Cohort Studies
Yuxuan XIAO ; Zhuoying LI ; Qiuming SHEN ; Li XIE ; Yongbing XIANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2024;51(9):711-717
Liver cancer is a significant global disease burden with a major impact on population health,and it is one of the important concerns in terms of public health worldwide.Cancer risk prediction models can estimate an individual's absolute risk of developing cancer.Individual risk assessment allows targeted screening of high-risk populations,which is essential for primary and secondary cancer prevention.In this review,we examine existing epidemiological studies to explore key issues in the design,predictive variables,and performance of risk prediction models for liver cancer in the general population.The aim is to provide an important reference for the future development of highly comprehensive liver cancer risk prediction models.
4.Statistical analysis of disability-adjusted life years for stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai
Jing WU ; Lei ZHANG ; Yu JIANG ; Dandan TANG ; Yuxuan XIAO ; Yun ZHANG ; Honglan LI ; Wensui ZHAO ; Qinghua XIA ; Yongbing XIANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(2):168-176
Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P<0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P>0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P<0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P<0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.
5.Visual analysis of low value care de-implementation based on Web of Science
Yuxuan XIANG ; Ru DING ; Jing WU ; Yongmei LU ; Xiangwei YANG
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2024;30(13):1780-1788
Objective:To explore the development status, research hotspots, and frontiers of low value care (LVC) de-implementation in foreign countries.Methods:The literature on LVC de-implementation included in the Web of Science core collection from 1995 to 2023 was electronically searched. Excel software was used to organize literature. CiteSpace software was used to visually analyze the authors, institutions, countries, journals, co-citation status, and key terms included in the literature.Results:A total of 576 articles were included. The overall number of articles published from 1995 to 2023 showed an increase, with the highest in 2022 (150 articles). The top 10 research institutions with publication volume and centrality> 0.10 were the Harvard University and the United States Department of Veterans Affairs. Compared with other journals, Archives of Internal Medicine, Anesthesiology and American Review of Respiratory Disease had the highest number of indexed literature. The journals with a co-citation frequency greater than 50 and centrality>0.10 were Archives of Internal Medicine, The American Journal of Medicine, British Medical Journal and Annals of Internal Medicine. In addition to the key terms searched for in this study, the key terms frequently cited greater than 30 times in 576 articles were "impact" "management" "outcome" "health" "quality" "health care", and "guidelines". The clusters in keyword clustering analysis that extend the timeline to the past 5 years were "value based care" and "low value care". The analysis of burst words showed that the forefront was the accurate identification of LVC in clinical practice and the intervention strategies for LVC de-implementation. Conclusions:Through the analysis of key terms and burst terms, it is found that in recent years, research topics in this field focus on the relationship between LVC and medical insurance expenditures, the influencing factors of de-implementation, tools (checklists or manuals) for identifying LVC, clinical intervention pathways, de-implementation of different types of LVC, and evaluation of the effectiveness of de-implementation. In the future, domestic research needs to strengthen international cooperation and exchange, explore and construct a suitable implementation path for LVC in China, accurately formulate LVC lists and intervention strategies, optimize nursing measures, improve the effective utilization of medical resources, and provide effective and high-quality nursing services for patients.
6.Statistical analysis of disability-adjusted life years for stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai
Jing WU ; Lei ZHANG ; Yu JIANG ; Dandan TANG ; Yuxuan XIAO ; Yun ZHANG ; Honglan LI ; Wensui ZHAO ; Qinghua XIA ; Yongbing XIANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(2):168-176
Objectives:To analyze the status and temporal changes of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for stomach and colorectal cancers among registered permanent residents in Changning District of Shanghai Municipality, and provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of stomach and colorectal cancers in this district.Methods:Using the cancer registration data of stomach and colorectal cancers from 2002 to 2019, we estimated the indices such as the DALYs, the DALY crude rates, the age-standardized DALY rates, etc. Then we used the Joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) to explore the temporal variations in different periods.Results:The DALYs of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District from 2002 to 2019 were 55 931 person years and 65 252 person years, respectively. The crude rates of DALY were 512.16/10 5 and 597.51/10 5, respectively. We observed a higher disease burden in men than in women, and the peak rate of DALY in stomach cancer was in the 75-79 years age group, while in colorectal cancer the rate was in the 85-years-or-older age group. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 2002 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of stomach cancer showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.86%, P<0.05), while the trend of colorectal cancer was not statistically significant(AAPC=-0.08%, P>0.05). However, the trends in the age-standardized DALY rates of colorectal cancer were different between males and females, with males showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.24%, P<0.05) and females showing a downward trend (AAPC=-1.67%, P<0.05). Conclusions:The DALY of stomach and colorectal cancers in Changning District of Shanghai showed a decreasing trend. Males and the middle-aged and elderly populations are still the key targets for disease prevention and control in this district.
7.Disease burden of biliary tract cancer in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2021: A comprehensive demographic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Xuheng SUN ; Jiangmei LIU ; Wei ZHANG ; Yijun WANG ; Yan JIANG ; Lijun WANG ; Yixin ZOU ; Yuxuan XIAO ; Yongbing XIANG ; Maolan LI ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Yingbin LIU
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(24):3117-3125
BACKGROUND:
Biliary tract carcinomas (BTCs) are relatively rare but lethal primary malignant tumors derived from the biliary tract system. The burden of BTCs varies according to sex, age, region, and country, but limited attention has been paid to the burden of BTCs. We sought to explore the up-to-date data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) and expand findings by accessing the demographic features of BTC disease burden.
METHODS:
Using the latest data from the GBD 2021, we evaluated and analyzed the distributions and patterns of BTC disease burden in various age groups, sexes, regions, and countries.
RESULTS:
The number of incident cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) tended to increase and peaked at 216,770 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 181,890-245,240), 171,960 (95% UI: 142,350-194,240), and 3,732,100 (95% UI: 3,102,900-4,317,000) person-years, respectively, in 2021. However, the average global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs shrunk by -11.46% (95% UI: -21.91 to 3.35%), -24.09% (95% UI: -33.19 to 16.88%), and -26.25% (95% UI: -35.53 to 18.36%), respectively, from 1990 to 2021. Meanwhile, the male/female ratio (male per 100 female) of incidence, deaths, and DALYs changed from 76.40, 75.41, and 74.72 to 86.89, 79.11, and 82.29, respectively. In 2021, the highest number of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs occurred in East Asia. The top three highest incidences, deaths, and DALYs were observed in China, India, and Japan, and the highest ASRs were observed in Chile in 2021. Analysis of the Human Development Index along with disease burden estimates of BTCs also suggests that the burden of the disease is related to the level of comprehensive development of the society.
CONCLUSION
This study provided a comprehensive comparison of differences in the burden of disease across populations and over time, and further presented evidence concerning the formulation of prevention and control policies and etiologic studies for BTCs and proposed logical hypotheses to investigate.
Humans
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Global Burden of Disease
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Biliary Tract Neoplasms/epidemiology*
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Male
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Female
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Disability-Adjusted Life Years
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Middle Aged
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Aged
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Adult
;
Incidence
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Aged, 80 and over
;
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
;
Cost of Illness
8.Multicenter study on the etiology characteristics of neonatal purulent meningitis
Yanli LIU ; Jiaojiao CAI ; Xiaoyi ZHANG ; Minli ZHU ; Zhenlang LIN ; Yicong PAN ; Junhu ZHENG ; Yiwei ZHAO ; Xiang WANG ; Hongping LU ; Meifang LIN ; Ji WANG ; Haihong GU ; Lizhen WANG ; Keping CHENG ; Yuxuan DAI ; Yuan GAO ; Junsheng LI ; Hongxia FANG ; Na SUN ; Lihua LI ; Xiaoquan LI ; Ying LIU ; Yingyu LI ; Wa GAO ; Minxia LI
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2023;41(6):393-400
Objective:To study the distribution and antibiotics resistance of the main pathogens of neonatal purulent meningitis in different regions of China.Methods:A retrospective descriptive clinical epidemiological study was conducted in children with neonatal purulent meningitis which admitted to 18 tertiary hospitals in different regions of China between January 2015 to December 2019. The test results of blood and cerebrospinal fluid, and drug sensitivity test results of the main pathogens were collected. The distributions of pathogenic bacteria in children with neonatal purulent meningitis in preterm and term infants, early and late onset infants, in Zhejiang Province and other regions outside Zhejiang Province, and in Wenzhou region and other regions of Zhejiang Province were analyzed. The chi-square test was used for statistical analysis.Results:A total of 210 neonatal purulent meningitis cases were collected. The common pathogens were Escherichia coli ( E. coli)(41.4%(87/210)) and Streptococcus agalactiae ( S. agalactiae)(27.1%(57/210)). The proportion of Gram-negative bacteria in preterm infants (77.6%(45/58)) with neonatal purulent meningitis was higher than that in term infants (47.4%(72/152)), and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2=15.54, P=0.001). There were no significant differences in the constituent ratios of E. coli (36.5%(31/85) vs 44.8%(56/125)) and S. agalactiae (24.7%(21/85) vs 28.8%(36/125)) between early onset and late onset cases (both P>0.05). The most common pathogen was E. coli in different regions, with 46.7%(64/137) in Zhejiang Province and 31.5%(23/73) in other regions outside Zhejiang Province. In Zhejiang Province, S. agalactiae was detected in 49 out of 137 cases (35.8%), which was significantly higher than other regions outside Zhejiang Province (11.0%(8/73)). The proportions of Klebsiella pneumoniae, and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus in other regions outside Zhejiang Province (17.8%(13/73) and 16.4%(12/73)) were both higher than those in Zhejiang Province (2.9%(4/137) and 5.1%(7/137)). The differences were all statistically significant ( χ2=14.82, 12.26 and 7.43, respectively, all P<0.05). The proportion of Gram-positive bacteria in Wenzhou City (60.8%(31/51)) was higher than that in other regions in Zhejiang Province (38.4%(33/86)), and the difference was statistically significant ( χ2=6.46, P=0.011). E. coli was sensitive to meropenem (0/45), and 74.4%(32/43) of them were resistant to ampicillin. E. coli had different degrees of resistance to other common cephalosporins, among which, cefotaxime had the highest resistance rate of 41.8%(23/55), followed by ceftriaxone (32.4%(23/71)). S. agalactiae was sensitive to penicillin, vancomycin and linezolid. Conclusions:The composition ratios of pathogenic bacteria of neonatal purulent meningitis are different in different regions of China. The most common pathogen is E. coli, which is sensitive to meropenem, while it has different degrees of resistance to other common cephalosporins, especially to cefotaxime.
9.Clinical and pathological characteristics and prognostic analysis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma with concurrent histological variants
Yuxuan SONG ; Xiang DAI ; Yun PENG ; Shan JIANG ; Songchen HAN ; Shicong LAI ; Caipeng QIN ; Yiqing DU ; Tao XU
Chinese Journal of Urology 2023;44(9):648-654
Objective:To investigate the clinical and pathological characteristics and prognosis of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) with concurrent other histological variants.Methods:The clinical data of 566 UTUC patients admitted to Peking University People's Hospital from January 2007 to April 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Among them, 289 were males and 277 were females, with an average age of (67.3±10.0)years old. Among the patients, 97 had a history of smoking, 29 had undergone kidney transplantation, 120 had diabetes, 76 had coronary heart disease, 146 had hyperlipidemia, 271 had hypertension, and 50 had a history of chronic kidney disease. Among the UTUC cases, 366 had concurrent hydronephrosis, 55 had concurrent bladder cancer, and 43 had a history of previous bladder cancer. The distribution included 210 cases of renal pelvis carcinoma, 5 cases of carcinoma at the renal pelvis-ureter junction, 226 cases of ureteral carcinoma, and 125 cases of multifocal tumors. Patients were classified into the pure UTUC group and the UTUC with concurrent other histological variants group based on postoperative pathology, and their clinical and pathological features were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore risk factors for the occurrence of histological variations in UTUC. The log-rank test was employed to compare the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) between the two groups, while Cox regression analysis was performed to investigate prognostic factors.Results:Among the 566 cases, 511 were pure UTUC and 55 were UTUC with concurrent other histological variants. Among the latter, 30 cases had squamous differentiation, 6 had glandular differentiation, 5 had mucinous differentiation, 5 had sarcomatoid carcinoma, 2 had micropapillary carcinoma, 2 had neuroendocrine carcinoma, 1 had giant cell carcinoma, and 4 had other mixed histological variations. The proportion of patients with a history of kidney transplantation was higher in the UTUC with concurrent histological variants group than that in the pure UTUC group [14.5% (8/55) vs. 4.1% (21/511)], with statistically significant difference ( P=0.003). In the UTUC with concurrent histological variants group, the proportion of postoperative high-grade tumors [98.2% (54/55) vs. 80.2% (410/511)], muscle-invasive tumors [89.1% (49/55) vs. 68.1% (348/511)], lymph node metastasis tumors [10.9% (6/55) vs. 2.3% (12/511)], and maximum tumor diameter [(3.60±2.64) cm vs. (2.96±1.98) cm] were higher than those in the pure UTUC group ( P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a history of kidney transplantation ( OR=4.991, 95% CI 1.749-13.615, P=0.002) was an independent predictive factor for the occurrence of histological variants. Follow-up was conducted for 1 to 174 months, with a median follow-up time of 32.8 months. UTUC with concurrent histological variants was significantly associated with worse OS and CSS ( P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that histological variants were an independent risk factor for OS ( HR=1.860, 95% CI 1.228-2.816, P=0.003) and CSS ( HR=2.146, 95% CI 1.349-3.412, P=0.001). Conclusions:UTUC with concurrent other histological variants exhibited higher postoperative tumor grade and stage compared to pure UTUC, and UTUC with concurrent other histological variants was an independent risk factor for worse prognosis.
10.Chaperone-mediated Autophagy Regulates Cell Growth by Targeting SMAD3 in Glioma.
Hanqun LIU ; Yuxuan YONG ; Xingjian LI ; Panghai YE ; Kai TAO ; Guoyou PENG ; Mingshu MO ; Wenyuan GUO ; Xiang CHEN ; Yangfu LUO ; Yuwan LIN ; Jiewen QIU ; Zhiling ZHANG ; Liuyan DING ; Miaomiao ZHOU ; Xinling YANG ; Lin LU ; Qian YANG ; Pingyi XU
Neuroscience Bulletin 2022;38(6):637-651
Previous studies suggest that the reduction of SMAD3 (mothers against decapentaplegic homolog 3) has a great impact on tumor development, but its exact pathological function remains unclear. In this study, we found that the protein level of SMAD3 was greatly reduced in human-grade IV glioblastoma tissues, in which LAMP2A (lysosome-associated membrane protein type 2A) was significantly up-regulated. LAMP2A is a key rate-limiting protein of chaperone-mediated autophagy (CMA), a lysosome pathway of protein degradation that is activated in glioma. We carefully analyzed the amino-acid sequence of SMAD3 and found that it contained a pentapeptide motif biochemically related to KFERQ, which has been proposed to be a targeting sequence for CMA. In vitro, we confirmed that SMAD3 was degraded in either serum-free or KFERQ motif deleted condition, which was regulated by LAMP2A and interacted with HSC70 (heat shock cognate 71 kDa protein). Using isolated lysosomes, amino-acid residues 75 and 128 of SMAD3 were found to be of importance for this process, which affected the CMA pathway in which SMAD3 was involved. Similarly, down-regulating SMAD3 or up-regulating LAMP2A in cultured glioma cells enhanced their proliferation and invasion. Taken together, these results suggest that excessive activation of CMA regulates glioma cell growth by promoting the degradation of SMAD3. Therefore, targeting the SMAD3-LAMP2A-mediated CMA-lysosome pathway may be a promising approach in anti-cancer therapy.

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