1.Construction and validation of a medication deviation prediction model for hospital-to-home transition period in coronary heart disease patients with initial treatment
Yushuang LI ; Shu LI ; Qianying ZHANG ; Yan HUANG ; Kun LIU ; Xiulin GU ; Huanhuan JIANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(4):491-496
OBJECTIVE To develope a predictive model for medication deviation risks during the hospital-to-home transition period in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients with initial treatment, aiming to assist medical staff in rapidly identifying high-risk groups for medication deviation. METHODS A total of 462 CHD patients with initial treatment from the Affiliated Hospital of North China University of Science and Technology (hereinafter referred to as “our hospital”) between January and July 2024 were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into a modeling group and an internal validation group. The modeling group was further categorized into a medication deviation group and a non-medication deviation group based on whether medication deviations occurred. Similarly, 57 CHD patients with initial treatment from the cardiology department of our hospital between June and September 2025 were collected as an external validation group. Univariate analysis was used to screen predictive factors, followed by multivariate Logistic regression to construct the predictive model. Internal validation methods were employed to evaluate model performance, while external validation methods were used to test the model’s generalizability. RESULTS The 462 patients were divided into a modeling group (319 cases) and an internal validation group (143 cases). In the modeling group, the medication deviation group (192 cases, 60.19%) and the non-medication deviation group (127 cases, 39.81%) were identified. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age, medication type, medication adherence, and self-efficacy in rational medication use were predictive factors for medication deviations in CHD patients with initial treatment ( P <0.05). The predictive model equation was logit P =ln[ P /(1- P ) ] =1.321+1.732×age+4.091×medication type -4.360×medication adherence -3.081×self-efficacy in rational medication use. The model demonstrated good discrimination, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test P -value of 0.439, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.870, sensitivity of 0.970, and specificity of 0.607. A risk nomogram with a total score of 350 points and a cutoff value of 110 points was plotted. The internal validation group showed an AUC o f 0.787 and a prediction accuracy of 77.6%, while the external validation group exhibited an AUC of 0.802 and a prediction accuracy of 73.7%. CONCLUSIONS This study successfully developed a predictive model for medication deviation risks during the hospital-to-home transition period in CHD patients with initial treatment. The model demonstrates excellent discrimination and predictive accuracy, effectively identifying high-risk populations for medication deviations. Age (>70 years), number of drug types≥5, poor medication adherence, and poor self-efficacy in rational medication use are independent risk factors for medication deviations.
2.Association between physical activity level and dyslipidemia among freshmen of a medical college
Yushuang LUO ; Yan WANG ; Yanli LIU ; Jin ZHANG ; Minghui HE ; Wanhong HE ; Juan WU ; Yihan GU ; Chenyang ZHENG ; WANG WANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(2):170-174
Objective To investigate the association between physical activity levels and blood lipids among college freshmen, and to provide scientific evidence for the health management of college freshmen. Methods An electronic questionnaire survey on physical activity was conducted on freshmen of a university, and fasting blood biochemical indicators were detected. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) short form was used to evaluate the physical activity levels of the participants. Dyslipidemia was defined as an abnormality in any one of the following serum lipid parameters: total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Binary logistic regression and stratified analyses were employed to explore the relationship between physical activity and blood lipids. Results A total of 3 401 participants were included, with an average age of 18.45 ± 0.92 years, and 60.5% were female. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was 17.7%, with a higher rate among males (22.1%) than females (14.8%). After adjusting for confounding factors related to blood lipids, high-intensity physical activity was negatively associated with the risk of elevated LDL-C among males (OR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.13–0.99, P = 0.049). Conclusion Among freshmen at a medical college in Hubei Province, high-intensity physical activity is negatively associated with the risk of elevated LDL-C in males, but this association needs to be further confirmed by larger prospective cohort studies.
3.The risk prediction models for anastomotic leakage after esophagectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Yushuang SU ; Yan LI ; Hong GAO ; Zaichun PU ; Juan CHEN ; Mengting LIU ; Yaxie HE ; Bin HE ; Qin YANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2025;32(02):230-236
Objective To systematically evaluate the risk prediction models for anastomotic leakage (AL) in patients with esophageal cancer after surgery. Methods A computer-based search of PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Chinese Medical Journal Full-text Database, VIP, Wanfang, SinoMed and CNKI was conducted to collect studies on postoperative AL risk prediction model for esophageal cancer from their inception to October 1st, 2023. PROBAST tool was employed to evaluate the bias risk and applicability of the model, and Stata 15 software was utilized for meta-analysis. Results A total of 19 literatures were included covering 25 AL risk prediction models and 7373 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.670-0.960. Among them, 23 prediction models had a good prediction performance (AUC>0.7); 13 models were tested for calibration of the model; 1 model was externally validated, and 10 models were internally validated. Meta-analysis showed that hypoproteinemia (OR=9.362), postoperative pulmonary complications (OR=7.427), poor incision healing (OR=5.330), anastomosis type (OR=2.965), preoperative history of thoracoabdominal surgery (OR=3.181), preoperative diabetes mellitus (OR=2.445), preoperative cardiovascular disease (OR=3.260), preoperative neoadjuvant therapy (OR=2.977), preoperative respiratory disease (OR=4.744), surgery method (OR=4.312), American Society of Anesthesiologists score (OR=2.424) were predictors for AL after esophageal cancer surgery. Conclusion At present, the prediction model of AL risk in patients with esophageal cancer after surgery is in the development stage, and the overall research quality needs to be improved.
4.Influence evaluation of pharmaceutical quality control on medication therapy management services by the ECHO model
Kun LIU ; Huanhuan JIANG ; Yushuang LI ; Yan HUANG ; Qianying ZHANG ; Dong CHEN ; Xiulin GU ; Jinhui FENG ; Zijian WANG ; Yunfei CHEN ; Yajuan QI ; Yanlei GE ; Aishuang FU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(9):1123-1128
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the influence of pharmaceutical quality control on the efficiency and outcomes of standardized medication therapy management (MTM) services for patients with coronary heart disease by using Economic, Clinical and Humanistic Outcomes (ECHO) model. METHODS This study collected case data of coronary heart disease patients who received MTM services during January-March 2023 (pre-quality control implementation group, n=96) and June-August 2023 (post-quality control implementation group, n=164). Using propensity score matching analysis, 80 patients were selected from each group. The study subsequently compared the economic, clinical, and humanistic outcome indicators of pharmaceutical services between the two matched groups. RESULTS There were no statistically significant differences in baseline data between the two groups after matching (P>0.05). Compared with pre-quality control implementation group, the daily treatment cost (16.26 yuan vs. 24.40 yuan, P<0.001), cost-effectiveness ratio [23.12 yuan/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) vs. 32.32 yuan/QALY, P<0.001], and the incidence of general adverse drug reactions (2.50% vs. 10.00%, P=0.049) of post-quality control implementation group were decreased significantly; the utility value of the EuroQol Five-Dimensional Questionnaire (0.74± 0.06 vs. 0.71±0.07, P=0.003), the reduction in the number of medication related problems (1.0 vs. 0.5, P<0.001), the medication adherence score ([ 6.32±0.48) points vs. (6.10±0.37) points, P=0.001], and the satisfaction score ([ 92.56±1.52) points vs. (91.95±1.56) points, P=0.013] all showed significant improvements. Neither group experienced serious adverse drug reactions. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of new adverse reactions between the two groups (1.25% vs. 3.75%, P=0.310). CONCLUSIONS Pharmaceutical quality control can improve the quality of pharmaceutical care, and the ECHO model can quantitatively evaluate the effect of MTM services, making pharmaceutical care better priced and more adaptable to social needs, thus being worthy of promotion.
5.Clinical Characteristics, MAML2 Gene Rearrangement and Prognosis of Pulmonary Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma.
Jianrong BAI ; Meng YAN ; Lingchuan GUO ; Zhe LEI ; Weishuo LIU ; Zigui ZOU ; Jiao LI ; Yushuang ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(6):441-449
BACKGROUND:
Primary pulmonary mucoepidermoid carcinoma (PMEC) is an exceedingly rare malignancy originating from bronchial submucosal glands, accounting for <0.2% of lung cancers. Histologically characterized by a triphasic composition of mucinous, epidermoid, and intermediate cells, PMEC is classified into low-grade (favorable prognosis) and high-grade (aggressive behavior) subtypes. This study aimed to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic indicators of PMEC.
METHODS:
Clinicopathological, radiological, molecular, and survival data from 26 PMEC patients were retrospectively analyzed, including immunohistochemical profiles and MAML2 rearrangement status, supplemented by literature review.
RESULTS:
The cohort comprised 14 males and 12 females (mean age: 55.6 years). Eight patients (30.8%) were smokers, and 19 (73.1%) presented with symptoms. Central tumors predominated (n=19, 73.1%) versus peripheral lesions (n=7, 26.9%). Computed tomography (CT) imaging consistently revealed hypo-to-isodense masses/nodules. Pathologically, 19 cases were low-grade and 7 high-grade. Immunohistochemically, the tumor cells were positive for CK7, P40, P63 and CK5/6, and the Ki-67 index ranged from 2% to 70%. MAML2 rearrangement was detected in 52.4% (11/21) of tested cases. Clinical staging distribution: stage I (n=14), stage II (n=8), stage III (n=3), stage IV (n=1). Treatment modalities: radical surgery alone (n=13), surgery with adjuvant chemotherapy (n=11), chemoradiotherapy (n=1), and conservative management (n=1). With a median follow-up of 57 months, 6 patients (23.1%) died. Prognostic analysis demonstrated: (1) Significantly inferior survival in high-grade versus low-grade groups (P<0.05); (2) Lymph node metastasis, advanced stage, Ki-67>20%, and high-grade histology significantly correlated with reduced overall survival (P<0.05); (3) Lymph node metastasis constituted an independent poor prognostic factor (HR=12.73, 95%CI: 1.22-132.96).
CONCLUSIONS
PMEC exhibits distinct clinicopathological features, with MAML2 rearrangement present in approximately half of cases. Lymph node metastasis, advanced stage, high Ki-67 proliferation index, and high-grade histology are key determinants of poor prognosis, with lymph node metastasis serving as an independent risk factor.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Carcinoma, Mucoepidermoid/mortality*
;
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Trans-Activators/genetics*
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Prognosis
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Adult
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Gene Rearrangement
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Aged
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Retrospective Studies
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Transcription Factors/genetics*
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DNA-Binding Proteins/genetics*
6.Effect of heterologous expression of Scenedesmus quadricauda malic enzyme gene SqME on photosynthetic carbon fixation and lipid accumulation in tobacco leaves.
Yizhen LIU ; Mengyuan LI ; Zhanqian LI ; Yushuang GUO ; Jingfang JI ; Wenchao DENG ; Ze YANG ; Yan SUN ; Chunhui ZHANG ; Jin'ai XUE ; Runzhi LI ; Chunli JI
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2025;41(7):2829-2842
Microalgae possess high photosynthetic efficiency, robust adaptability, and substantial biomass, serving as excellent biological resources for large-scale cultivation. Malic enzyme (ME), a ubiquitous metabolic enzyme in living organisms, catalyzes the decarboxylation of malate to produce pyruvate, CO2, and NAD(P)H, playing a role in multiple metabolic pathways including energy metabolism, photosynthesis, respiration, and biosynthesis. In this study, we identified the Scenedesmus quadricauda malic enzyme gene (SqME) and its biological functions, aiming to provide excellent target genes for the genetic improvement of higher plants. Based on the RNA-seq data from S. quadricauda under the biofilm cultivation mode with high CO2 and light energy transfer efficiency and small water use, a highly expressed gene (SqME) functionally annotated as ME was cloned. The physicochemical properties of the SqME-encoded protein were systematically analyzed by bioinformatics tools. The subcellular localization of SqME was determined via transient transformation in Nicotiana benthamiana leaves. The biological functions of SqME were identified via genetic transformation in Nicotiana tabacum, and the potential of SqME in the genetic improvement of higher plants was evaluated. The ORF of SqME was 1 770 bp, encoding 590 amino acid residues, and the encoded protein was located in chloroplasts. SqME was a NADP-ME, with the typical structural characteristics of ME. The ME activity in the transgenic N. tabacum plant was 1.8 folds of that in the wild-type control. Heterologous expression of SqME increased the content of chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, and total chlorophyll by 20.9%, 26.9%, and 25.2%, respectively, compared with the control. The transgenic tobacco leaves showed an increase of 54.0% in the fluorescence parameter NPQ and a decrease of 30.1% in Fo compared with the control. Moreover, the biomass, total lipids, and soluble sugars in the transgenic tobacco leaves enhanced by 20.5%, 25.7%, and 9.5%, respectively. On the contrary, the starch and protein content in the transgenic tobacco leaves decreased by 22.4% and 12.2%, respectively. Collectively, the SqME-encoded protein exhibited a strong enzymatic activity. Heterologous expressing of SqME could significantly enhance photosynthetic protection, photosynthesis, and biomass accumulation in the host. Additionally, SqME can facilitate carbon metabolism remodeling in the host, driving more carbon flux towards lipid synthesis. Therefore, SqME can be applied in the genetic improvement of higher plants for enhancing photosynthetic carbon fixation and lipid accumulation. These findings provide scientific references for mining of functional genes from S. quadricauda and application of these genes in the genetic engineering of higher plants.
Nicotiana/genetics*
;
Photosynthesis/physiology*
;
Malate Dehydrogenase/biosynthesis*
;
Plant Leaves/genetics*
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Scenedesmus/enzymology*
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Carbon Cycle/genetics*
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Lipid Metabolism/genetics*
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Plants, Genetically Modified/metabolism*
7.Clinical characteristics and influencing factors of cognitive impairment in non-dialysis patients with chronic kidney disease
Hongxia LI ; Xia XU ; Jie JIANG ; Mengxue JIA ; Wenjin LIU ; Zhe HAN ; Yushuang LIU ; Yijiao ZHU ; Dafeng HE ; Chunlei LU ; Mengyue ZHU ; Hongbin MOU ; Guangyu BI ; Rong WANG
Journal of Clinical Medicine in Practice 2025;29(11):1-6,13
Objective To explore the influencing factors of cognitive impairment in non-dialysis patients with chronic kidney disease(CKD).Methods A total of 60 hospitalized non-dialysis patients with CKD in the Department of Nephrology of Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University from September 2022 to September 2023 were enrolled as research objects.According to the estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR),they were divided into stage 1 to 2 of CKD group[eGFR ≥60 mL/(min·1.73 m2)]with 23 cases,the stage 3 of CKD group[eGFR 30~<60 mL/(min·1.73 m2)]with 20 cases,and stage 4 to 5 of CKD group[eGFR<30 mL/(min·1.73 m2)]with 17 cases.The Montreal Cognitive Assessment Scale(MoCA)was used to evaluate the cognitive function of the patients.Basic data and common clinical laboratory in-dicators on hospital admission were collected to analyze the differences in cognitive function levels under different renal function statuses and to explore the influencing factors of cognitive impairment.Results The incidence rates of cognitive impairment in the stage 1 to 2 of CKD group,stage 3 of CKD group,and stage 4 to 5 of CKD group were 47.8%,85.0%,and 94.1%respectively,the median MoCA scored 26,24 and 20 respectively,with statistically significant between-group differ-ences(P<0.05).Cognitive function was significantly negatively correlated with age(r=-0.634,P<0.001),blood urea nitrogen(BUN)(r=-0.574,P<0.001),serum creatinine(Cr)(r=-0.417,P<0.001),cystatin C(Cys-C)(r=-0.327,P=0.011),serum β2-microglobulin(β2-MG)(r=-0.259,P=0.046),and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)(r=-0.474,P<0.001),and was significantly positively correlated with hemoglobin(HB)(r=0.401,P=0.001)and eGFR(r=0.485,P<0.001).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age(P=0.006)and NT-proBNP(P=0.041)were influencing factors of cognitive im-pairment in non-dialysis patients with CKD.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis showed that the area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity of age for prediction were 0.860,0.864 and 0.812 respectively,the AUC,sensitivity,and specificity of NT-proBNP for pre-diction were 0.808,0.795 and 0.875 respectively,and the combined prediction of age and NT-proBNP had an AUC,sensitivity,and specificity of 0.893,0.955,and 0.750,respectively.Conclusion As renal function deteriorates,the incidence rate and severity of cognitive impairment in non-dialysis patients with CKD tend to increase.Advanced age,renal function deterioration,high NT-proBNP level,and anemia are associated with the occurrence of cognitive impairment in non-di-alysis patients with CKD,among which age and NT-proBNP are influencing factors for cognitive im-pairment.
8.Bioinformatics analysis and functional verification of hsa-miR-3202 in osteoarthritic chondrocytes
Jiaqi ZHANG ; Yanhong LIU ; Huiting LIANG ; Jingjing ZHOU ; Yawen WANG ; Jingyu XU ; Yushuang LI ; Lijian LEI ; Xiaoqin HU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(12):2458-2465
BACKGROUND:The imbalance between proliferation and apoptosis of chondrocytes plays an important role in the occurrence and development of osteoarthritis. Previous studies have found that hsa-miR-3202 is involved in regulating the proliferation and apoptosis of various cells. However,no studies have explored the correlation between hsa-miR-3202 and osteoarthritis.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the expression of hsa-miR-3202 in osteoarthritic chondrocytes and its effect on the proliferation and apoptosis of chondrocytes. METHODS:(1) MicroRNAs differentially expressed in osteoarthritic chondrocytes were screened by biogenic analysis. Based on the current research situation at home and abroad,hsa-miR-3202 was selected for follow-up studies,and its target genes were predicted by gene ontology (GO) functional enrichment and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment. (2) Human normal chondrocyte cell lines C28/I2 in logarithmic growth phase were selected and randomly divided into four groups for culture:in normal group,cells were cultured in normal medium for 24 hours,the medium was then changed to normal medium for another 6 hours of culture,and changed to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours,the medium was then changed to normal medium for another 6 hours,and changed to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide+NC group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours,and then transfected with has-miR-3202 mimics control for 6 hours,and the medium was change to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide+hsa-miR-3202 mimics group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours and then transfected with has-miR-3202 mimics for 6 hours,and the medium was changed to normal medium for subsequent culture. After further 48 hours of culture,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 was detected by fluorescence quantitative PCR and cell apoptosis was detected by flow cytometry. After further culture of 0-72 hours,cell proliferation activity was detected by cell counting kit-8. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Bioinformatics analysis results indicated that hsa-miR-3202 was significantly down-regulated in osteoarthritic chondrocytes. GO functional enrichment and KEGG pathway enrichment showed that the function of hsa-miR-3202 target gene was closely related to cell growth and apoptosis. The results of in vitro cell experiments showed that compared with the normal group,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 and proliferation ability of chondrocytes were significantly decreased in the lipopolysaccharide group (P<0.05),while the apoptotic rate was significantly increased (P<0.05). Compared with the lipopolysaccharide group,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 and proliferation ability of chondrocytes were significantly increased in the lipopolysaccharide+hsa-miR-3202 mimics group (P<0.05),while the apoptotic rate was significantly decreased (P<0.05). To conclude,the expression of hsa-miR-3202 is down-regulated in osteoarthritic chondrocytes to inhibit cell proliferation and promote cell apoptosis,thus affecting the occurrence and development of osteoarthritis.
9.Bioinformatics analysis and functional verification of hsa-miR-3202 in osteoarthritic chondrocytes
Jiaqi ZHANG ; Yanhong LIU ; Huiting LIANG ; Jingjing ZHOU ; Yawen WANG ; Jingyu XU ; Yushuang LI ; Lijian LEI ; Xiaoqin HU
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2025;29(12):2458-2465
BACKGROUND:The imbalance between proliferation and apoptosis of chondrocytes plays an important role in the occurrence and development of osteoarthritis. Previous studies have found that hsa-miR-3202 is involved in regulating the proliferation and apoptosis of various cells. However,no studies have explored the correlation between hsa-miR-3202 and osteoarthritis.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the expression of hsa-miR-3202 in osteoarthritic chondrocytes and its effect on the proliferation and apoptosis of chondrocytes. METHODS:(1) MicroRNAs differentially expressed in osteoarthritic chondrocytes were screened by biogenic analysis. Based on the current research situation at home and abroad,hsa-miR-3202 was selected for follow-up studies,and its target genes were predicted by gene ontology (GO) functional enrichment and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment. (2) Human normal chondrocyte cell lines C28/I2 in logarithmic growth phase were selected and randomly divided into four groups for culture:in normal group,cells were cultured in normal medium for 24 hours,the medium was then changed to normal medium for another 6 hours of culture,and changed to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours,the medium was then changed to normal medium for another 6 hours,and changed to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide+NC group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours,and then transfected with has-miR-3202 mimics control for 6 hours,and the medium was change to normal medium for subsequent culture;in lipopolysaccharide+hsa-miR-3202 mimics group,cells were cultured in lipopolysaccharide-containing medium for 24 hours and then transfected with has-miR-3202 mimics for 6 hours,and the medium was changed to normal medium for subsequent culture. After further 48 hours of culture,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 was detected by fluorescence quantitative PCR and cell apoptosis was detected by flow cytometry. After further culture of 0-72 hours,cell proliferation activity was detected by cell counting kit-8. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Bioinformatics analysis results indicated that hsa-miR-3202 was significantly down-regulated in osteoarthritic chondrocytes. GO functional enrichment and KEGG pathway enrichment showed that the function of hsa-miR-3202 target gene was closely related to cell growth and apoptosis. The results of in vitro cell experiments showed that compared with the normal group,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 and proliferation ability of chondrocytes were significantly decreased in the lipopolysaccharide group (P<0.05),while the apoptotic rate was significantly increased (P<0.05). Compared with the lipopolysaccharide group,the expression level of hsa-miR-3202 and proliferation ability of chondrocytes were significantly increased in the lipopolysaccharide+hsa-miR-3202 mimics group (P<0.05),while the apoptotic rate was significantly decreased (P<0.05). To conclude,the expression of hsa-miR-3202 is down-regulated in osteoarthritic chondrocytes to inhibit cell proliferation and promote cell apoptosis,thus affecting the occurrence and development of osteoarthritis.
10.Risk prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy:A systematic review and a Meta-analysis
Zaichun PU ; Ping JIA ; Juan LIU ; Yushuang SU ; Li WANG ; Qin ZHANG ; Danyang GUO
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2024;40(11):2266-2276
Objective To systematically review the risk prediction models for postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)after pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD),and to provide a reference for the clinical screening and application of POPF-related risk models.Methods This study was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines,with a PROSPERO registration number of CRD42023437672.PubMed,Scopus,Embase,Web of Science,the Cochrane Library,CNKI,VIP,Wanfang Data,China Medical Journal Full-text Database,and CBM were searched for studies on establishing risk prediction models for POPF after PD published up to April 26,2024.The PROBAST tool was used to assess the quality of articles,and RevMan 5.4 and MedCalc were used to perform the Meta-analysis.Results A total of 36 studies were included,involving 20 119 in total,and the incidence rate of POPF after PD was 7.4%—47.8%.A total of 55 risk prediction models were established in the 36 articles,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of 0.690-0.952,among which 52 models had an AUC of>0.7.The quality assessment of the articles showed high risk of bias and good applicability.MedCalc was used to perform a statistical analysis of AUC values,and the results showed a pooled AUC of 0.833(95%confidence interval:0.808-0.857).The Meta-analysis showed that body mass index,amylase in drainage fluid on the first day after surgery,preoperative serum albumin,pancreatic duct diameter,pancreatic texture,fat score,tumor location,blood loss,sex,time of operation,main pancreatic duct index,and pancreatic CT value were predictive factors for POPF(all P<0.05).Conclusion The risk prediction models for POPF after PD is still in the exploratory stage.There is a lack of calibration methods and internal validation for most prediction models,and only the univariate analysis is used to for the screening of variables,which leads to the high risk of bias.In the future,it is necessary to improve the methods for model establishment,so as to develop risk prediction models with a higher prediction accuracy.


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